智通财经APP获悉，天风证券发布研报称，"双节"市场氛围较为平淡，传统"旺季效应"明显减弱。动销 及批价来看，随着双节临近，9月终端动销环比温和回暖，但仍然承压；批价同比下滑，渠道利润呈现 收窄态势。渠道库存来看，经销商25Q2因动销不畅，库存或环比抬升；节前备货后库存阶段性提升， 双节旺季或略有去化，但预计地产酒经销商库存仍然高企。看好Q3业绩披露阶段板块向上弹性表现(风 险或充分释放)&建议关注板块周期底部。 山东市场：区域分化明显。品鉴会、买赠活动等带动济南、潍坊等地动销升温；青岛、淄博、临沂等地 氛围冷淡，政务商务场景减少。整体来看，白酒消费呈现"理性化"趋势，宴席、家庭聚饮等刚性场景表 现相对稳定，但商务与政务消费持续疲软，导致次高端价位带承压。 天风证券主要观点如下： 市场氛围平淡，动销符合预期 根据云酒头条消息，中秋国庆期间，预计白酒动销整体下滑20%-30%，符合节前偏淡预期。受今年5 月"禁酒令"影响，政商务白酒消费场景承压明显，餐饮消费市场受到影响。"双节"市场氛围较为平淡， 传统"旺季效应"明显减弱。动销及批价来看，随着双节临近，9月终端动销环比温和回暖，但仍然承 压；批价同比下滑，渠道 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究简报 白酒 证券研究报告 双节动销符合预期，板块情绪或有望修复 风险提示：终端动销不及预期；行业竞争加剧；宏观经济复苏不及预期 2025 年 10 月 20 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 市场氛围平淡，动销符合预期。根据云酒头条消息，中秋国庆期间，预计 白酒动销整体下滑 20%-30%，符合节前偏淡预期。受今年 5 月"禁酒令"影 响，政商务白酒消费场景承压明显，餐饮消费市场受到影响。"双节"市场 氛围较为平淡，传统"旺季效应"明显减弱。动销及批价来看， 随着双节 临近，9 月终端动销环比温和回暖，但仍然承压;批价同比下滑，渠道利润呈 现收窄态势。渠道库存来看，经销商 25Q2 因动销不畅，库存或环比抬升； 节前备货后库存阶段性提升，双节旺季或略有去化，但我们预计地产酒经销 商库存仍然高企。回款意愿来看，经销商资金压力较大，回款较为谨慎，各 酒企第三季度回款意愿普遍放缓。 各省份动销分化，宴席场景相对韧性。市场呈现"整体承压、区域分化" 特征，高端名酒与区域龙头展现韧性，大众价位带表现相对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline of the real estate industry in China has significantly impacted the high-end liquor market, leading to a need for transformation and new consumption drivers in the liquor sector [1][4][7]. Group 1: Real Estate and Liquor Industry Interconnection - The real estate sector's growth has historically driven the high-end liquor market, with a notable increase in business-related consumption [2][4]. - From 2004 to 2013, real estate investment surged over 520%, while the liquor industry experienced a "golden decade" with production up 293%, revenue up 719%, and profits soaring 1272% [5]. - The collapse of major real estate companies like Evergrande and the subsequent economic downturn have led to a significant decline in the liquor industry, which is now facing intense competition and adjustment [7][8]. Group 2: Current State of the Liquor Industry - As of early 2025, the number of large-scale liquor enterprises has decreased to 887, with a slight revenue increase of 0.19% but a significant profit drop of 10.93% [8]. - Major liquor companies have initiated strategic transformations, focusing on new consumer demographics, international markets, and affordable product lines to adapt to changing market conditions [10][11][12]. Group 3: Strategic Transformations in the Liquor Industry - Companies like Moutai are targeting new consumer groups in emerging industries and enhancing personalized service offerings [10]. - The liquor industry is also expanding its international presence, with initiatives aimed at promoting Chinese liquor globally [10]. - There is a growing emphasis on affordable products, with several brands launching new offerings to capture the mass market [11][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Challenges - Despite initial successes in transformation, the liquor industry faces ongoing challenges, including the need to find new consumption drivers to replace the real estate sector [14]. - The export market for Chinese liquor is still in its infancy, and the profitability of mass-market products lags behind that of premium offerings [14].