据 "今日酒价"披露的最新批发参考价显示，12月24日，2025年飞天茅台原箱报1600元/瓶，较上一日涨40元；2025年飞天茅台散瓶报1590元/ 瓶，较上一日涨40元。2024年飞天茅台原箱报1630元/瓶，较上一日涨30元；2024年飞天茅台散瓶报1615元/瓶，较上一日涨35元。 12月24日，飞天茅台原箱批发价格再度回升至1600元附近。 此前12月12日，茅台批发价格一度触及指导零售价1499元/瓶，公司及时打出稳价牌来稳定渠道情绪，有效修复了经销商信心，飞天成箱批 价回升百元至1600元左右。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 华创证券食品饮料行业分析师欧阳予解读认为，随着各省区市场工作会内容传达至各级经销商和终端后，茅台批价应势回升，表明前期价格 下行通道下，经销商和终端几无囤货意愿，亦印证当前渠道库存实质不高。投资时点上，欧阳予表示："中长期看，未来半年仍是绝对收益 资金布局白酒周期的区间。" ...

"今日酒价"12月10日最新数据显示，2025年53度500mL飞天茅台散瓶批发参考价已跌至1500元/瓶，较 前一日下跌15元，创下历史新低，这一价格较1499元的官方指导价仅差1元。 近期贵州茅台股价也表现弱势，12月10日盘中一度跌破1400元，创下近一年新低，但随后在收盘时站上 1402元。 华创证券董广阳团队预计，2026年白酒周期将加速筑底，持续观察两大指标：一是飞天茅台批价企稳放 量时点；二是经销商亏损收窄时点，现金流企稳好转。 董广阳团队还表示，虽然当前飞天批价仍在下跌筑底过程中，但茅台股价在经历约五年的调整过后已逐 渐企稳，机构持仓亦跌至近十年低位，股价、批价相关性走弱亦底部明显特征。一旦飞天茅台批价完成 筑底放量，股价表现更可期待。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

再论白酒周期 20251207 上一轮完整的白酒库存周期可以分为几个阶段：从 2009 年到 2012 年，整个 行业处于加库存阶段，茅台和五粮液等头部企业价格持续上涨，经销商主动囤 货，量价齐升，股价快速上涨。但从 2012 年开始，由于限制三公消费政策影 响，需求下降，但供给端仍在惯性增长，经销商被动加库存。这一阶段虽然报 表业绩不错，但批发价格下跌，股价表现最差。 进入主动去库存阶段后，由于 供给端控制，经销商开始减少囤货，这一过程导致业绩显著下滑，但量价逐步 企稳。例如，在 2014 年春节期间，我们观察到茅台和五粮液量价不跌，这是 判断库存周期转向的重要标志。尽管这一年的业绩很差，但股价已经基本进入 底部震荡区间。 摘要 白酒行业正经历从被动加库存向主动去库存的转变，预计 2026 年上半 年出现量价企稳信号，供给端已呈现收缩迹象，多数酒企对 2025 年目 标设定趋于保守。 2024-2025 年白酒企业供给端逐步收缩，类似于 2013-2014 年市场表 现，预计 2026 年上半年量价企稳，茅台、五粮液价格接近批价底部。 白酒需求与宏观经济高度相关，预计 2026 年市场企稳需宏观经济配合， ...

来源：黄老邪财经 今天是2025年12月4日，有媒体报道飞天茅台的1499指导价被击穿，在某电商平台的补贴下低至1399元。 吓得我赶紧看了一眼，还好还好。 如果不算补贴的话，市场零售价应该在1550左右。 | 飞天整箱 (25年) | ¥ 1550 | 10 | ¥ 1450 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 茅台飞天200ml | ¥ 525 | 0.00 | ¥ 380 | | 茅台飞天375ml | ¥ 1200 | 0.00 | ¥ 900 | | 茅台公斤飞天 | ¥ 2910 | 0.00 | ¥ 2200 | | 茅台珍藏475ml | ¥ 2300 | 0.00 | ¥ 1600 | | 茅台自/金条 | ¥ 710 | 0.00 | ¥ 500 | | 茅台五星 | ¥ 1450 | 0.00 | ¥ 1400 | | 茅台员工品鉴 | ¥ 2370 | 0.00 | ¥ 1800 | | 茅台生肖兔年 整 | 141900 | 0.00 | ¥ 1700 | | 茅台兔年生肖 散 | ¥ 1820 | 0.00 | ¥ 1500 | | 茅台生肖虎年 整 | ¥ ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share liquor sector is experiencing a downturn, with a collective revenue of 317.779 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.90%, and a net profit of 122.571 billion yuan, down 6.93% [2][13]. Industry Performance - The liquor industry has been a valuation anchor in the consumer sector, known for its superior profitability and high gross margins, but many companies are currently facing performance declines [2]. - The industry is believed to be at the bottom of the current cycle, which began in 2022, and there is speculation about the emergence of new leaders or dark horses post-adjustment [2][12]. Economic Indicators - The pricing of liquor assets is closely linked to macroeconomic indicators such as the BCI index, PPI, and changes in social financing, with the highest correlation observed with the BCI index under the product price index [8]. - The economic growth model has shifted from real estate-driven to high-tech-driven, impacting overall consumption, including liquor [9]. Comparison of Cycles - The current cycle shares similarities with the 2013-2014 cycle, including economic and policy environments that have pressured liquor consumption [10][11]. - Differences include changes in personal consumption capacity and willingness, as well as the industry's transition from "incremental competition" to "stock competition" [11]. Future Outlook - The liquor industry is expected to recover as macroeconomic conditions stabilize, with signs of improvement in consumption data since September [12]. - The highest inventory levels have passed, and while destocking may continue for 3-4 quarters, the overall inventory situation is improving [12]. Consumption Trends - The consumption structure is shifting, with lower-priced liquor segments (100-200 yuan) gaining traction, while higher-priced segments face challenges [14]. - Long-term trends indicate that consumption upgrades will continue to drive price increases in the liquor sector [14]. Competitive Landscape - The competition in the liquor market is becoming more intense, with strong brands likely to capture market share from weaker competitors [16]. - Companies with a high proportion of self-consumption demand are better positioned to navigate the current cycle [17]. Young Consumer Dynamics - The rise of non-traditional liquor brands and lower-alcohol beverages is indicative of changing preferences among younger consumers, although they are not yet the primary market for traditional liquor [18]. - Brands that effectively engage with younger consumers and adapt to their preferences are likely to emerge as industry leaders [18]. Investment Logic - Current liquor valuations are at historical lows, presenting a strong margin of safety for investors, with expectations of gradual recovery in the sector [19]. - Long-term growth opportunities exist despite a decline in overall consumption, driven by price increases and market consolidation [19].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Q3 report for the liquor industry indicates it is the worst quarter in the past decade, with most companies experiencing significant declines in performance, while only a few, like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, managed to maintain positive growth [1][4]. Group 1: Performance Comparison - Among the 21 A-share liquor companies, only 15 have fully experienced the previous adjustment period, showing improved resilience against downturns [2]. - In 2025 Q3, the revenue and net profit of these 15 companies fell by 4.5% and 5.5%, respectively, compared to more severe declines in 2013 and 2014 [4]. - The number of leading liquor companies maintaining positive growth has increased, with Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu being the only ones to achieve this in 2025 Q3 [5]. Group 2: Profitability and Financial Resilience - The total net profit of the 15 liquor companies in 2025 Q3 exceeded 110 billion, significantly higher than the less than 28 billion in 2013 [10]. - The accumulated undistributed profits of these companies reached 468.8 billion, five times that of 2013, indicating a stronger financial cushion [10][12]. - The profitability of leading companies has improved, with Moutai maintaining a gross margin above 90% and Wuliangye's gross margin rising to over 80% [13][14]. Group 3: Sales and Marketing Strategies - Unlike the previous cycle, companies have been more restrained in their sales expenditures, with many reducing their sales expense ratios compared to 2013 and 2014 [17][19]. - Guizhou Moutai's sales expense ratio remains low at around 3-4%, reflecting strong brand recognition and market confidence [20]. Group 4: Channel Confidence and Cash Flow - The confidence of distributors has improved, with contract liabilities for the 15 companies increasing by 3.6% in 2025 Q3, contrasting sharply with the declines seen in the previous cycle [22][24]. - However, some non-leading companies have reported negative cash flow from operating activities, indicating potential financial strain [28].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Q3 report for the liquor industry indicates a significant downturn, marking the worst quarter in the past decade, with most companies experiencing substantial profit declines, while only a few, like Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, managed to maintain positive growth [1] Group 1: Performance Comparison - Among the 21 A-share liquor companies, only 15 have fully experienced the previous downturn, including Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye [2] - The overall resilience of these 15 companies has improved, with revenue and net profit declines of 4.5% and 5.5% respectively in 2025, compared to larger declines in the previous cycle [3] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - In 2025, Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are the only companies showing both revenue and profit growth, contrasting with the previous cycle where only one company managed to do so [6] - Wuliangye's net profit decline is limited to under 14%, while Shanxi Fenjiu has returned to positive growth [7] - Luzhou Laojiao has significantly improved its performance, with revenue and profit declines controlled to single digits in 2025, compared to much larger declines in the previous cycle [7][8] Group 3: Profitability and Financial Health - The total net profit of the 15 companies exceeded 1100 billion in 2025, significantly higher than the previous cycle's total of under 280 billion [10] - The accumulated undistributed profits of these companies reached 4688 billion, five times that of 2013, providing a strong financial cushion [13][15] - Kweichow Moutai's undistributed profits are seven times higher than in 2013, indicating robust financial health [15] Group 4: Cost Management - Many companies have reduced their sales expense ratios compared to the previous cycle, indicating a more restrained approach to spending [29] - Kweichow Moutai maintains a very low sales expense ratio, consistently around 3-4%, reflecting strong brand recognition and market confidence [33] Group 5: Channel Confidence and Cash Flow - The confidence of distributors in head companies has improved, with many reporting increases in contract liabilities, indicating better cash flow management [38] - However, some non-head companies are experiencing negative cash flow, with five companies reporting negative net cash flow from operating activities for two consecutive years [42]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Q3 report for the liquor industry is the worst in the past decade, with most companies experiencing significant declines in performance, while only a few, like Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, managed to maintain positive growth [1] Group 1: Performance Comparison - Among the 21 A-share liquor companies, only 15 have fully experienced the previous adjustment period, including Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye [2][3] - The overall decline in revenue and net profit for these 15 companies in 2025 Q3 was 4.5% and 5.5%, respectively, compared to larger declines during the previous cycle [4] - The number of leading liquor companies showing positive growth has increased, with Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu both achieving revenue and profit growth in 2025 Q3 [7] Group 2: Profitability and Financial Resilience - The total net profit for the 15 companies exceeded 110 billion yuan in 2025 Q3, significantly higher than the previous cycle's figures [12] - The accumulated undistributed profits for these companies reached 468.8 billion yuan, five times that of 2013, indicating a stronger financial cushion [13][15] - Kweichow Moutai's undistributed profits are seven times higher than in 2013, showcasing its robust financial health [15] Group 3: Cost Management and Sales Strategy - Liquor companies have learned from past experiences and are controlling sales expenses more effectively, with many reducing their sales expense ratios compared to the previous cycle [26][28] - Kweichow Moutai maintains a low sales expense ratio of around 3-4%, reflecting strong brand recognition and market confidence [31] Group 4: Channel Confidence and Cash Flow - The confidence of distributors has improved, with contract liabilities for the 15 companies increasing by 3.6% in 2025 Q3, contrasting sharply with the previous cycle's declines [33] - However, some non-leading companies are experiencing negative cash flow, with five companies reporting negative net cash flow from operating activities for two consecutive years [39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is currently in a phase of pressure relief and clearing, with expectations for performance recovery in the future. The focus should be on companies that show early signs of a turning point and have leading growth elasticity [3] - The overall revenue of the liquor sector has declined, with a 5.5% year-on-year drop in total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, and an 18.3% decline in Q3 alone. Net profit also saw a significant decrease of 21.9% in Q3 [12][24] - The high-end liquor segment is under pressure, with a need for macroeconomic recovery to achieve a balance in volume and price. Companies with strong brand positioning and national expansion potential are recommended for investment [3][12] Summary by Sections 1. Q3 Performance and Market Conditions - The Q3 performance of the liquor sector shows a slow recovery in consumption scenarios, with overall sales continuing to face pressure. The high-end and next-high-end liquor demand remains under pressure, particularly in business and personal dining scenarios [12][13] - The overall revenue for the liquor sector in Q3 dropped by 18.3% year-on-year, with net profit down by 21.9%, indicating a significant acceleration in the decline compared to previous quarters [12][24] 2. Revenue Trends - The liquor sector's revenue has been on a downward trend, with a 5.5% year-on-year decline in the first three quarters of 2025. The Q3 revenue decline is particularly sharp at 18.3% [12][24] - High-end liquor companies are experiencing a shift in their financial reports, with revenue declines driven by pressure on major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye [30][41] 3. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for the liquor sector has decreased, with Q3 margins at 81.7%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. The decline in profitability is attributed to structural issues and increased costs [2][3] - The report highlights that the majority of liquor companies have seen an increase in sales expenses, while management expenses have also risen slightly due to weaker revenue realization [2][3] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in companies that are likely to recover first, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, which have strong governance and dividend yields. Other companies to watch include Zhenjiu Lidu and Shede Liquor [3][12] - The focus should be on companies that can maintain channel stability and show early signs of marginal recovery, as the market is expected to support valuations for these firms [12][13]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Insights - The overall sales of liquor during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are expected to decline by 20%-30%, aligning with pre-festival expectations due to the impact of the "ban on alcohol" in May [2] - High-end liquor brands are showing resilience, while the mass market is under pressure, with a notable shift towards lower-priced products in certain regions [3] - The market is characterized by "overall pressure with regional differentiation," where high-end and regional leading brands perform better compared to mass-market products [3] - The price of high-end liquor is stabilizing after a decline, with notable brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showing recovery in prices [4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Sales during the double festival period are under pressure, with a slight recovery in terminal sales observed in September, but overall sales remain constrained [2] - Inventory levels among distributors are high due to sluggish sales, leading to cautious payment collection [2] Regional Analysis - Jiangsu: Stable sales in urban areas, but rural markets are struggling [3] - Henan: Lower-priced products are becoming the main sales drivers due to changing consumer perceptions [3] - Sichuan: Differentiated performance in urban and rural markets, with rural areas showing resilience [3] - Shandong: Sales are influenced by promotional activities, but overall market sentiment is weak [3] Pricing Trends - High-end liquor prices are stabilizing after a decline, with Moutai's price around 1760 yuan [4] - Strong brand power is crucial for performance, with brands like Jiu Gui and Jian Nan Chun showing better resilience [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with the upcoming Q3 earnings disclosures, risks may be fully released, and the sector could see a recovery in sentiment [5] - Key investment lines include: 1. High elasticity stocks under policy expectations: Jiu Gui, She De, Shui Jing Fang, Lao Jiao, Hua Zhi [5] 2. Stocks benefiting from consumer recovery: Gu Jing Gong Jiu, Ying Jia, Jin Si Yuan [5] 3. Strong alpha stocks: Moutai, Fen Jiu [5]