白酒周期：底部信号与投资节奏 20250923 摘要 白酒行业自 2022 年起连续每年下一个台阶，至今年（2025 年）5 月底禁酒令 出台后，行业又经历了一轮严厉的压力测试。上一轮周期底部时，每个季度市 场预期变化显著，2012 年底颁布规定加严，三公消费执行加严后，2013 年断 崖式下跌。2014-2016 年间行业逐步出清。在当前时点，我们通过复盘前一 轮周期对比发现白酒连续从 2022 年开始，每年下降一个台阶，到 2025 年的 阶段。 如何判断白酒行业是否已经触底？ 判断白酒行业是否触底需要观察几个前瞻信号。首先是资本市场股价见底的时 间点，这往往早于基本面见底。例如上一轮周期中，在企业开始出清时资本市 场股价已见底。此外，还需关注负反馈向正反馈转变的信号，如库存出清、需 求拉动等关键节点。例如上一轮周期中，2014 年的供给侧减压和 2015 年的 库存出清都是重要信号。 在当前白酒深度调整的底部区间，应如何选择股票？ 在当前深度调整的底部区间选择股票应考虑几个方面：首先是龙头企业定调， 例如茅台在 14-16 年的低个位数增长目标；其次是企业现金流情况，例如 12 年底现金流恶化；再次是批 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the liquor industry [10] Core Insights - The liquor inventory cycle is gradually turning, with expectations of a demand recovery driven by ongoing economic policies and improved consumer confidence. The industry is entering a critical phase for left-side layout [2][8] - Current valuations and fund holdings in the liquor industry are at historical lows, indicating a favorable time for allocation. Leading liquor companies are showing strong dividend support [2][8] Summary by Sections Inventory Management - The liquor industry has clear inventory cycle fluctuations, with different phases affecting stock performance. The current phase indicates a shift from passive inventory accumulation to active inventory reduction, suggesting a more scientific and rational management approach by manufacturers [6][20][24] Demand Recovery - The demand for liquor is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions. Historical data shows that liquor industry revenue growth aligns with GDP growth, indicating potential for gradual recovery as the economy improves [36][39] Head Brand Concentration - The trend of market share concentration towards leading brands continues, with top companies maintaining stable growth despite overall market slowdowns. In 2024, listed liquor companies accounted for 28% of the total production, a historical high [42][44] Mid-Autumn Festival Performance Review - Historical performance around the Mid-Autumn Festival shows varying results for liquor stocks compared to the CSI 300 index. The fundamental performance remains the decisive factor for excess returns during this period [49][52]

Investment Rating - The report rates the white liquor industry as "Positive" (First Time) [1] Core Viewpoints - The current moment is seen as a potential starting point for absolute returns in the white liquor sector, considering the cyclical learning effects [4] - The white liquor industry has returned to cyclical characteristics, with fund holdings dropping to levels seen in 2017, and the food and beverage sector's overweight ratio has decreased significantly from a peak of 11% in 2019 to 3.2% [4][13] - The valuation of the white liquor sector has declined by 72% over the past four years, indicating a slow and steady adjustment process, unlike previous cycles [4][18] - Historical analysis suggests that the bottoming out of the white liquor index occurred after the 2014 Spring Festival, which is anticipated to happen again during the current cycle [5][22] Summary by Sections 1. Decline in White Liquor Holdings and Return to Cyclical Stock Characteristics - Fund holdings in the white liquor sector have decreased to 2017 levels, indicating a shift back to cyclical stock characteristics [10][13] - The overweight ratio of the food and beverage sector has significantly decreased, reflecting a gradual exit of funds focused on long-term value [4][13] 2. Review of Previous Cycle's Bottoming Characteristics - The previous cycle's bottoming process involved several stages, including a decline in dealer profitability, reduced receivables, and a subsequent recovery in real demand [4][18] - The current cycle is expected to show a similar pattern, with the learning effect potentially leading to an earlier inflection point for absolute returns [4][18] 3. Upcoming Investment Timing - The report suggests monitoring for signs of risk clearance in financial statements and early inventory reduction among dealers as indicators for potential investment opportunities [4][6] - Specific companies to watch include Luzhou Laojiao for its high dividend yield and Yingjia Gongjiu for its low valuation and inventory clearance [4][6]

Summary of the White Wine Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The white wine industry has experienced four cycles since 2000: 1999-2003, 2008-2009, 2012-2015, and 2022-present, each with unique macroeconomic environments and market performances [2][8] Key Points and Arguments - The current white wine cycle is similar to the 2013-2015 cycle, which was marked by a significant downturn due to the "Three Public Consumption" ban, impacting high-end white wine markets, particularly Moutai, which saw wholesale prices drop from 1,850 RMB to 850 RMB [3][10] - During the 2013-2015 cycle, the white wine stock index fell by 46% from January 2013 to June 2014, but began to rebound in June 2014, ahead of fundamental performance confirmation [5][11] - Improvement in the fundamentals is evident, with a narrowing decline in advance receipts and positive operating cash flow trends, indicating that companies are emerging from a low point [6][11] - Liquidity expectations improved significantly with the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect in late 2014, which attracted foreign investment into A-shares, particularly in consumer stocks [7][9] Important but Overlooked Content - The current cycle faces challenges such as overcapacity and macroeconomic impacts, but leading companies have a more concentrated market share, allowing them to better manage market fluctuations and maintain smoother inventory and channel cycles [10][12] - Changes in consumer drinking habits, particularly among younger demographics, are shifting towards more personalized and lower-alcohol options, which may affect the overall recovery of white wine consumption in the long term [10][11] - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are critical periods for assessing whether the white wine market has truly bottomed out [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongxing Securities indicates that the liquor stocks are on the verge of a bottom recovery in asset pricing, despite a weak recovery in the fundamentals of liquor consumption. The overall trend of improving fundamentals has been confirmed, suggesting a focus on the rebound opportunities in the liquor sector, particularly for companies like Kweichow Moutai (600519) and Wuliangye (000858) that have consistently increased market share during the cycle [1]. Group 1 - Since 2000, the liquor industry has experienced four cycles: 1999-2003, 2008-2009, 2012-2015, and 2022-present. The cycle from 2013 to 2015 was notably deep and similar to the current macroeconomic situation, prompting a review of capital pricing changes during that period to identify potential bottom recovery windows for liquor stocks [2]. - The analysis of the 2013-2015 liquor cycle revealed that liquor stock prices typically bottom out approximately two quarters before the fundamentals confirm a recovery, indicating a lead time in market reactions to fundamental changes [2]. Group 2 - Two key changes in expectations influenced the asset pricing of liquor stocks during the previous cycle: the stabilization of terminal sales around the 2014 Dragon Boat Festival and the improvement in the financial health of liquor companies as indicated by their semi-annual reports. Additionally, the initiation of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect reform in 2014 improved liquidity expectations for consumer stocks, attracting long-term capital to the liquor sector [3]. - The current liquor cycle is seen as a combination of the liquor sector's own cycle and the macroeconomic cycle. Positive trends are observed in both demand and liquidity, with the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays indicating a clearer upward trend in liquor demand, alongside significant liquidity improvements in the A-share market, which reached a 10-year high in August 2025 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongxing Securities indicates that the liquor stocks are on the verge of a bottom recovery in asset pricing, despite a weak recovery in the fundamentals of liquor consumption. The overall trend of improvement in fundamentals has been confirmed, suggesting investment opportunities in the liquor sector, particularly in companies like Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) and Wuliangye (000858.SZ) that have consistently increased market share during the cycle [1]. Group 1 - Since 2000, the liquor industry has experienced four cycles: 1999-2003, 2008-2009, 2012-2015, and 2022-present. The cycle from 2013 to 2015 was notably deep and similar to the current macroeconomic situation, prompting a review of capital pricing changes during that period to identify potential recovery windows for liquor stocks [2]. - The analysis of the 2013-2015 liquor cycle revealed that liquor stock prices typically bottom out approximately two quarters before the fundamentals, indicating that price reversals occur ahead of confirmed performance [2]. - Two key changes in expectations influenced the asset pricing during the previous cycle: the stabilization of terminal sales around the Dragon Boat Festival in 2014 and the improvement in the balance sheets of liquor companies, alongside the initiation of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect reform, which improved liquidity expectations for consumer stocks [3]. Group 2 - The current liquor cycle is characterized by the interplay of the liquor sector's own cycle and the macroeconomic cycle. Positive trends are observed in both demand and liquidity, with the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day indicating a clearer upward trend in liquor demand, and the A-share market reaching a 10-year high in August 2025, reflecting significant liquidity improvement [3].

Summary of the Wine Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The wine industry is currently experiencing a recovery phase, with signs of improvement in sales volume observed in June and July, despite high-end and business-related banquets still facing pressure [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Sales Volume Improvement**: There has been a noticeable improvement in sales volume since late July, particularly in casual dining scenarios such as family gatherings and graduation celebrations. However, high-end and business-related banquets remain suppressed and require more time for recovery [2]. - **Price Adjustments**: The price of the original box of Moutai has decreased from approximately 1,900 yuan to around 1,800 yuan due to increased supply ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival, indicating short-term price pressure [1][2]. - **Market Bottom Prediction**: The wine index is expected to reach its bottom in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026, with the adjustment cycle likely lasting 3-4 quarters, similar to the previous economic and policy pressure period from 2013 to 2015 [1][3]. - **Demand Recovery Timeline**: The earliest potential recovery in demand could occur around the Mid-Autumn Festival in 2026, driven by a low base effect and easing economic policies. However, inventory clearance may take longer [1][3]. - **Dividend Yield as a Safety Net**: High-end wine stocks generally have a dividend yield above 4%, providing a solid bottom for the wine sector and indicating limited downside risk [1][3]. - **Mid-term Demand Drivers**: Over the next 2-3 years, a significant recovery in wine demand is anticipated due to short-term economic recovery and marginal improvements in policy constraints. The construction area is expected to rebound, which will enhance consumption scenarios [1][4]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, high-end wines are considered the best investment choice due to their strong financial resilience, minimal impact on primary consumer groups, and significant brand and channel premium. Once a recovery is confirmed, attention can shift to mid-range or regionally strong brands [1][5]. Additional Important Insights - **Inventory Levels**: Current social inventory levels remain high, and the market has not yet entered a formal clearance phase, which may delay recovery [3]. - **Long-term Growth Potential**: The wine sector is viewed as a cyclical asset that could outperform inflation if the economy shifts towards a consumption-driven growth model, suggesting that high-end wine business models may continue to thrive [4].

Summary of the White Liquor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The white liquor industry is experiencing a generalized cyclical pattern driven by diverse factors, no longer solely influenced by fixed asset investment. New growth engines include high-end manufacturing, services, consumption, and exports, with policy factors also playing a significant role [1][2] - The current cycle differs from the 2013-2015 cycle, with more rational inventory management among companies and distributors, resulting in shorter inventory cycles and reduced time lag between report bottoms and price bottoms. However, the current economic and policy environment is more severe, potentially leading to larger adjustments and longer cycles [1][4] Key Insights - Report bottoms do not necessarily indicate stock price bottoms. Price trends are crucial indicators of market supply and demand. A price bottom typically signals a stock price bottom, while relying solely on report data may not provide an accurate assessment [1][5] - In the short term, stable prices for Moutai are favorable for the stock market. However, in the medium to long term, the white liquor industry is expected to stabilize due to shifts in economic growth drivers and policy impacts, necessitating caution regarding potential volatility from economic and policy interactions [1][6] Market Dynamics - The total growth of the white liquor industry is limited, with increased competition among listed companies and a slowdown in market share expansion for leading firms. Price pressures are significant due to both asset and consumption attributes [1][8] - The current market conditions indicate that the white liquor industry is unlikely to see significant growth, as the primary consumer demographic has peaked. The market share of unlisted companies has decreased to around 40%, and further squeezing will yield diminishing returns [8][9] Future Trends - The fundamental performance of the white liquor industry is expected to bottom out between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, coinciding with traditional peak sales seasons. Despite potential pressures on payments and prices, the likelihood of hitting a bottom is high [11][12] - The industry is projected to experience a gradual decline throughout 2025, with Q1 showing a 7% growth in sales revenue, but subsequent quarters may see a downturn due to policy impacts and delayed revenue recognition [13] Investment Considerations - Historical data suggests that even after the fundamentals bottom out, prices may continue to decline for an extended period. The stock price may remain flat during this time, but the risk to stock prices will decrease, presenting a favorable configuration opportunity for absolute return funds [14][17] - Companies with growth potential and resilience, such as Fenjiu, Zhenjiu, and Laojiao, are expected to perform well during market rebounds, similar to how Yanghe and Gujing performed in the previous cycle [15] Institutional Holdings and Valuation - Current institutional holdings in the white liquor sector have decreased from approximately 15% to 3.98%. While this is a significant drop, it is not expected to reach the lows of around 1% seen in the previous cycle [16] - Valuations are unlikely to drop to the extremely low levels seen in the last cycle, with expected profit valuation levels around 15 times. The average dividend yield has increased to 3.5%, providing a good opportunity for absolute return funds [17]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a downward cycle, with some companies experiencing negative growth, and the market is characterized by shrinking competition and increasing concentration among leading firms [3][6]. Industry Status - The production of large-scale liquor companies peaked in 2016 and has been declining annually, with 2023 production at only 46.32% of 2016 levels [10]. - In 2023, the top six companies accounted for 13% of the industry's production but captured 53.85% of the total revenue, indicating a significant increase in industry concentration from 23.8% in 2017 [11]. - The liquor market is segmented into five price bands, with leading products dominating each segment, such as "Flying Moutai" in the above 2000 yuan category and "Wuliangye" in the 1000 yuan category [13][14]. Brand Dynamics - The success of a liquor brand hinges on having a flagship product with over 10 billion yuan in sales that can dominate a price segment [14]. - The liquor industry is characterized by strong brand loyalty, where high-end liquor is perceived as a cultural product rather than just a beverage, emphasizing social recognition and status [19][20]. Price Characteristics - The price of high-end liquor is closely tied to the income levels of consumers, with "Flying Moutai" prices fluctuating around half of the urban residents' disposable income [24]. - During economic downturns, the prices of premium liquors tend to decrease, impacting the market space for other brands [25]. Cycle Analysis - The liquor cycle is influenced by factors such as consumer wealth levels and short-term economic conditions, with the current economic environment contributing to the industry's downward trend [28][36]. - The inventory cycle plays a crucial role, where excess inventory can exacerbate price declines during economic downturns [38][44]. Investment Recommendations - The top investment choices in the liquor industry are "Guizhou Moutai" and "Wuliangye," both of which have established national and high-end market positions, making them less susceptible to competition [55]. - The timing for purchasing these stocks should be based on historical performance patterns, indicating that stock prices may recover before fundamental improvements are evident [59]. - Current valuations suggest that "Guizhou Moutai" has a price-to-earnings ratio of around 20, while "Wuliangye" is at approximately 14, with both companies expected to return to growth after the current downturn [62].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current challenges facing the Chinese liquor industry, particularly the white wine sector, highlighting the impact of economic cycles on sales and pricing strategies [3][6][11]. Group 1: Market Conditions - During the recent Dragon Boat Festival holiday, negative news dominated the white wine sector, with prices for premium brands like Moutai nearing 2050 yuan per bottle, approaching the 2000 yuan mark [3]. - E-commerce platforms have been aggressively discounting products, leading to price discrepancies across channels, which has pressured manufacturers to maintain pricing [5][6]. - The overall market environment appears slightly better than last year, with retail sales of consumer goods reaching 161,845 billion yuan, growing by 4.7%, and catering revenue increasing by 4.8% [7]. Group 2: Company Performance - First-quarter reports indicate a significant decline in growth rates for most white wine companies compared to the previous year, with some experiencing substantial drops in net profit [6]. - Moutai is projected to maintain a stable growth rate, while other companies will struggle to achieve positive growth or minimize declines [7][8]. - Moutai has committed to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 75%, with a projected net profit of 86.2 billion yuan for 2024, translating to a dividend of approximately 51.43 yuan per share [8]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Concerns about the long-term viability of the white wine market include changing consumer preferences, high prices, and potential overcapacity [9]. - Historical perspectives suggest that current criticisms of the white wine sector echo sentiments from previous downturns, which were followed by recovery [9][11]. - The article emphasizes that understanding the white wine market can provide insights into broader economic trends, consumer behavior, and financial markets [11].