站在白酒复苏的前夜 20250826 摘要 2013-2015 年白酒周期回调与当前环境相似，复盘可为白酒股定价提 供参考。当年"三公消费"禁令重创高端白酒市场，茅台批发价暴跌， 行业利润下滑，但财务指标改善预示走出低谷。 2013 年白酒股价指数大幅下跌 46%，但 2014 年中开始触底反弹，早 于基本面业绩确认两个季度以上。基本面改善体现在预收账款降幅收窄、 经营现金流向好等方面。 沪股通试点启动前，市场对外资偏好消费股的预期转好，流动性改善推 动资产定价提前于基本面反弹。流动性预期对白酒板块的估值修复起到 了关键作用。 本轮白酒周期与上一轮相似之处在于，均是行业周期与宏观经济周期的 叠加，都经历了政策调整带来的短期冲击，以及基本面改善和政策利好 推动资产定价提前反应。 本轮周期中，白酒行业同样面临产能过剩和宏观经济影响，但头部企业 市场份额更集中，能更从容应对市场波动，库存和渠道周期更为平滑， 整体下降和复苏过程更加平稳。 Q&A 请介绍一下白酒行业的历史周期及其特点。 自 2000 年以来，白酒行业经历了四轮周期：1999 年到 2003 年，2008 年到 2009 年，2012 年到 2015 ...

摘要 白酒：周期复盘，节奏推演 20250814 高端宴请和商务政务宴请受压制，恢复需时，但 6 月和 7 月白酒动销环 比有所改善，显示市场存在修复迹象。 普飞茅台原箱批价因中秋节前酒厂发货量增加而从 1,900 元降至 1,800 元左右，供给压力导致价格短期承压。 白酒指数预计在 2025 年四季度或 2026 年一季度触底，调整周期或持 续 3-4 个季度，与上一轮经济和政策双重受压周期相似。 需求动销最早可能在 2026 年中秋因低基数及经济政策边际影响放缓而 出现回振，但库存出清可能需要更长时间。 高端白酒股息率普遍在 4%以上，为白酒板块设立坚实底部，表明下跌 空间有限，具备投资价值。 中期来看，经济短期复苏和政策压制边际改善可能带来白酒需求端的超 跌修复，开工、竣工面积的回摆性调整将促进消费场景复苏。 短期内，高端白酒因报表韧性强、消费群体受损较小以及品牌渠道溢价 高等原因，仍是最优选择；确认右侧时，可关注次高端或区域强势品牌。 Q&A 近期白酒基本面有哪些值得关注的变化？ 近期白酒基本面有两个值得关注的变化。首先，动销层面有所改善。从 7 月下 旬开始，18 条例的执行方面出现了一些放松，尤 ...

白酒周期如何演绎 20250812 摘要 白酒行业周期性泛化，驱动因素多样化，不再仅受固定资产投资影响， 高端制造、服务业、消费和出口等成为新的增长引擎，政策因素亦构成 重要影响。 本轮白酒周期与 2013-2015 年周期相比，企业和经销商库存管理更为 理性，库存周期短，报表底与批价底时差缩短，但当前经济和政策环境 更严峻，调整幅度或将加大，周期拉长。 报表见底不代表股价见底，需关注批价走势。批价是前端指标，反映市 场供需关系，批价触底通常预示股价触底，而仅凭报表数据难以准确判 断。 短期内，茅台批价稳定利好股市，但中长期白酒行业受经济增长动力切 换和政策影响，将趋于平稳，仍需警惕经济和政策叠加带来的波动。 白酒行业总量增长受限，头部企业市场份额挤压空间收窄，上市企业竞 争加剧，集中度提升放缓。价格受资产属性和消费属性双重影响，短期 内上行压力大。 Q&A 白酒行业的周期性变化有哪些驱动因素？ 白酒行业作为一个偏周期性成长的消费行业，既有消费属性、资产属性，又有 奢侈品和快消品的属性。其驱动因素在不同时间段有所变化。在 2018 年之前， 白酒与地产周期相关度较高，而在 2003 年至 2012 年期间，白 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a downward cycle, with some companies experiencing negative growth, and the market is characterized by shrinking competition and increasing concentration among leading firms [3][6]. Industry Status - The production of large-scale liquor companies peaked in 2016 and has been declining annually, with 2023 production at only 46.32% of 2016 levels [10]. - In 2023, the top six companies accounted for 13% of the industry's production but captured 53.85% of the total revenue, indicating a significant increase in industry concentration from 23.8% in 2017 [11]. - The liquor market is segmented into five price bands, with leading products dominating each segment, such as "Flying Moutai" in the above 2000 yuan category and "Wuliangye" in the 1000 yuan category [13][14]. Brand Dynamics - The success of a liquor brand hinges on having a flagship product with over 10 billion yuan in sales that can dominate a price segment [14]. - The liquor industry is characterized by strong brand loyalty, where high-end liquor is perceived as a cultural product rather than just a beverage, emphasizing social recognition and status [19][20]. Price Characteristics - The price of high-end liquor is closely tied to the income levels of consumers, with "Flying Moutai" prices fluctuating around half of the urban residents' disposable income [24]. - During economic downturns, the prices of premium liquors tend to decrease, impacting the market space for other brands [25]. Cycle Analysis - The liquor cycle is influenced by factors such as consumer wealth levels and short-term economic conditions, with the current economic environment contributing to the industry's downward trend [28][36]. - The inventory cycle plays a crucial role, where excess inventory can exacerbate price declines during economic downturns [38][44]. Investment Recommendations - The top investment choices in the liquor industry are "Guizhou Moutai" and "Wuliangye," both of which have established national and high-end market positions, making them less susceptible to competition [55]. - The timing for purchasing these stocks should be based on historical performance patterns, indicating that stock prices may recover before fundamental improvements are evident [59]. - Current valuations suggest that "Guizhou Moutai" has a price-to-earnings ratio of around 20, while "Wuliangye" is at approximately 14, with both companies expected to return to growth after the current downturn [62].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current challenges facing the Chinese liquor industry, particularly the white wine sector, highlighting the impact of economic cycles on sales and pricing strategies [3][6][11]. Group 1: Market Conditions - During the recent Dragon Boat Festival holiday, negative news dominated the white wine sector, with prices for premium brands like Moutai nearing 2050 yuan per bottle, approaching the 2000 yuan mark [3]. - E-commerce platforms have been aggressively discounting products, leading to price discrepancies across channels, which has pressured manufacturers to maintain pricing [5][6]. - The overall market environment appears slightly better than last year, with retail sales of consumer goods reaching 161,845 billion yuan, growing by 4.7%, and catering revenue increasing by 4.8% [7]. Group 2: Company Performance - First-quarter reports indicate a significant decline in growth rates for most white wine companies compared to the previous year, with some experiencing substantial drops in net profit [6]. - Moutai is projected to maintain a stable growth rate, while other companies will struggle to achieve positive growth or minimize declines [7][8]. - Moutai has committed to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 75%, with a projected net profit of 86.2 billion yuan for 2024, translating to a dividend of approximately 51.43 yuan per share [8]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Concerns about the long-term viability of the white wine market include changing consumer preferences, high prices, and potential overcapacity [9]. - Historical perspectives suggest that current criticisms of the white wine sector echo sentiments from previous downturns, which were followed by recovery [9][11]. - The article emphasizes that understanding the white wine market can provide insights into broader economic trends, consumer behavior, and financial markets [11].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share liquor industry has experienced a significant decline of over 40% since its peak in February 2021, with the white liquor sector particularly struggling, contrasting sharply with its previous popularity before 2021 [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - From 2022 to 2024, the net profit growth rate of A-share listed liquor companies is projected to decline, with figures of 20.3%, 18.9%, and 7.4% respectively, marking a significant drop from the double-digit growth seen in previous years [2]. - In Q1 2025, total revenue for listed liquor companies reached 153.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, while net profit was 63.39 billion yuan, up 2.3% [4]. - Despite some companies like Moutai and Wuliangye showing positive growth, nearly half of the A-share liquor companies reported declining performance, with some experiencing revenue drops of up to 80% [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overall profitability of the liquor sector remains high, with a gross profit margin of 81.53% and a net profit margin of 42.54% in Q1 2025, largely supported by leading companies [8]. - The market is currently facing a "volume and price decline" scenario, contrasting with the consumption upgrade seen in the previous five years [9][10]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the liquor index is 19.9 times, a significant drop from 70 times in February 2021, aligning with valuation levels from 2015 and 2018 [10][12]. Group 3: Economic Influences - The liquor industry is undergoing a cyclical downturn, influenced by broader economic factors such as the real estate market's decline, which has seen a drop in sales area from 1.79 billion square meters in 2021 to 970 million square meters in 2024, a decrease of over 45% [14]. - The decline in real estate prices and the shrinking asset base of middle-class families are expected to negatively impact personal liquor consumption [15]. - The demographic trends indicate a potential decline in the drinking population starting in 2028, which could further pressure demand [17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current cycle presents greater challenges for the liquor industry compared to previous downturns, with no clear new growth engines to drive recovery [20]. - While exploring international markets could provide growth opportunities, the cultural differences in drinking habits pose significant challenges [21]. - The liquor industry is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a more mature and potentially declining phase, with long-term growth rates likely to settle in the single digits [22].