白酒行业一直被视为大消费板块的估值锚，其优越的盈利能力和高毛利率让许多行业 难以企及 。 然而 ，当前多家企业集体业绩失速，交出了最冷"三季报"， 对于投资者来说，这些信号意味着什 么？ 当"高库存"与"价格倒挂"成为行业常态 ， 白酒股的信仰是否依然稳固？ 在"增量时代"终结后 ，酒企们又将如何在"存量战场"中寻找新的增长引擎？ 纵观白酒行业的发展， 可以发现几乎每一次行业调整都会催生一个新的龙头。本轮周期开始于2022 年，目前行业普遍认为已经处于周期底部 。 那么，此轮调整过后， 还会出现新的龙头或黑马么？ 为穿透周期迷雾，和讯网独家对话东兴证券食品饮料行业首席分析师孟斯硕。 她 将从独特的"宏观 价格"视角，拆解白酒股与BCI、PPI等经济指标的内在联动 ； 通过深度对比2013与2025两轮调整 的异同，精准定位行业当前所处的位置。 对于未来的市场格局，孟斯硕直言行业 竞争在缩小的市场总需求中将更加残酷和直接 。 " 具有全 国性品牌影响力、强大渠道掌控力和有创新力的头部酒企，将收割退出者的市场份额。 " 省席 面对面 文/孟圆 根据2025年三季报数据，20家A股白酒上市公司营收合计3177.79 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Q3 report for the liquor industry indicates it is the worst quarter in the past decade, with most companies experiencing significant declines in performance, while only a few, like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, managed to maintain positive growth [1][4]. Group 1: Performance Comparison - Among the 21 A-share liquor companies, only 15 have fully experienced the previous adjustment period, showing improved resilience against downturns [2]. - In 2025 Q3, the revenue and net profit of these 15 companies fell by 4.5% and 5.5%, respectively, compared to more severe declines in 2013 and 2014 [4]. - The number of leading liquor companies maintaining positive growth has increased, with Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu being the only ones to achieve this in 2025 Q3 [5]. Group 2: Profitability and Financial Resilience - The total net profit of the 15 liquor companies in 2025 Q3 exceeded 110 billion, significantly higher than the less than 28 billion in 2013 [10]. - The accumulated undistributed profits of these companies reached 468.8 billion, five times that of 2013, indicating a stronger financial cushion [10][12]. - The profitability of leading companies has improved, with Moutai maintaining a gross margin above 90% and Wuliangye's gross margin rising to over 80% [13][14]. Group 3: Sales and Marketing Strategies - Unlike the previous cycle, companies have been more restrained in their sales expenditures, with many reducing their sales expense ratios compared to 2013 and 2014 [17][19]. - Guizhou Moutai's sales expense ratio remains low at around 3-4%, reflecting strong brand recognition and market confidence [20]. Group 4: Channel Confidence and Cash Flow - The confidence of distributors has improved, with contract liabilities for the 15 companies increasing by 3.6% in 2025 Q3, contrasting sharply with the declines seen in the previous cycle [22][24]. - However, some non-leading companies have reported negative cash flow from operating activities, indicating potential financial strain [28].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Q3 report for the liquor industry indicates a significant downturn, marking the worst quarter in the past decade, with most companies experiencing substantial profit declines, while only a few, like Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, managed to maintain positive growth [1] Group 1: Performance Comparison - Among the 21 A-share liquor companies, only 15 have fully experienced the previous downturn, including Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye [2] - The overall resilience of these 15 companies has improved, with revenue and net profit declines of 4.5% and 5.5% respectively in 2025, compared to larger declines in the previous cycle [3] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - In 2025, Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are the only companies showing both revenue and profit growth, contrasting with the previous cycle where only one company managed to do so [6] - Wuliangye's net profit decline is limited to under 14%, while Shanxi Fenjiu has returned to positive growth [7] - Luzhou Laojiao has significantly improved its performance, with revenue and profit declines controlled to single digits in 2025, compared to much larger declines in the previous cycle [7][8] Group 3: Profitability and Financial Health - The total net profit of the 15 companies exceeded 1100 billion in 2025, significantly higher than the previous cycle's total of under 280 billion [10] - The accumulated undistributed profits of these companies reached 4688 billion, five times that of 2013, providing a strong financial cushion [13][15] - Kweichow Moutai's undistributed profits are seven times higher than in 2013, indicating robust financial health [15] Group 4: Cost Management - Many companies have reduced their sales expense ratios compared to the previous cycle, indicating a more restrained approach to spending [29] - Kweichow Moutai maintains a very low sales expense ratio, consistently around 3-4%, reflecting strong brand recognition and market confidence [33] Group 5: Channel Confidence and Cash Flow - The confidence of distributors in head companies has improved, with many reporting increases in contract liabilities, indicating better cash flow management [38] - However, some non-head companies are experiencing negative cash flow, with five companies reporting negative net cash flow from operating activities for two consecutive years [42]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Q3 report for the liquor industry is the worst in the past decade, with most companies experiencing significant declines in performance, while only a few, like Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, managed to maintain positive growth [1] Group 1: Performance Comparison - Among the 21 A-share liquor companies, only 15 have fully experienced the previous adjustment period, including Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye [2][3] - The overall decline in revenue and net profit for these 15 companies in 2025 Q3 was 4.5% and 5.5%, respectively, compared to larger declines during the previous cycle [4] - The number of leading liquor companies showing positive growth has increased, with Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu both achieving revenue and profit growth in 2025 Q3 [7] Group 2: Profitability and Financial Resilience - The total net profit for the 15 companies exceeded 110 billion yuan in 2025 Q3, significantly higher than the previous cycle's figures [12] - The accumulated undistributed profits for these companies reached 468.8 billion yuan, five times that of 2013, indicating a stronger financial cushion [13][15] - Kweichow Moutai's undistributed profits are seven times higher than in 2013, showcasing its robust financial health [15] Group 3: Cost Management and Sales Strategy - Liquor companies have learned from past experiences and are controlling sales expenses more effectively, with many reducing their sales expense ratios compared to the previous cycle [26][28] - Kweichow Moutai maintains a low sales expense ratio of around 3-4%, reflecting strong brand recognition and market confidence [31] Group 4: Channel Confidence and Cash Flow - The confidence of distributors has improved, with contract liabilities for the 15 companies increasing by 3.6% in 2025 Q3, contrasting sharply with the previous cycle's declines [33] - However, some non-leading companies are experiencing negative cash flow, with five companies reporting negative net cash flow from operating activities for two consecutive years [39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is currently in a phase of pressure relief and clearing, with expectations for performance recovery in the future. The focus should be on companies that show early signs of a turning point and have leading growth elasticity [3] - The overall revenue of the liquor sector has declined, with a 5.5% year-on-year drop in total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, and an 18.3% decline in Q3 alone. Net profit also saw a significant decrease of 21.9% in Q3 [12][24] - The high-end liquor segment is under pressure, with a need for macroeconomic recovery to achieve a balance in volume and price. Companies with strong brand positioning and national expansion potential are recommended for investment [3][12] Summary by Sections 1. Q3 Performance and Market Conditions - The Q3 performance of the liquor sector shows a slow recovery in consumption scenarios, with overall sales continuing to face pressure. The high-end and next-high-end liquor demand remains under pressure, particularly in business and personal dining scenarios [12][13] - The overall revenue for the liquor sector in Q3 dropped by 18.3% year-on-year, with net profit down by 21.9%, indicating a significant acceleration in the decline compared to previous quarters [12][24] 2. Revenue Trends - The liquor sector's revenue has been on a downward trend, with a 5.5% year-on-year decline in the first three quarters of 2025. The Q3 revenue decline is particularly sharp at 18.3% [12][24] - High-end liquor companies are experiencing a shift in their financial reports, with revenue declines driven by pressure on major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye [30][41] 3. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for the liquor sector has decreased, with Q3 margins at 81.7%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. The decline in profitability is attributed to structural issues and increased costs [2][3] - The report highlights that the majority of liquor companies have seen an increase in sales expenses, while management expenses have also risen slightly due to weaker revenue realization [2][3] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in companies that are likely to recover first, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, which have strong governance and dividend yields. Other companies to watch include Zhenjiu Lidu and Shede Liquor [3][12] - The focus should be on companies that can maintain channel stability and show early signs of marginal recovery, as the market is expected to support valuations for these firms [12][13]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Insights - The overall sales of liquor during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are expected to decline by 20%-30%, aligning with pre-festival expectations due to the impact of the "ban on alcohol" in May [2] - High-end liquor brands are showing resilience, while the mass market is under pressure, with a notable shift towards lower-priced products in certain regions [3] - The market is characterized by "overall pressure with regional differentiation," where high-end and regional leading brands perform better compared to mass-market products [3] - The price of high-end liquor is stabilizing after a decline, with notable brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showing recovery in prices [4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Sales during the double festival period are under pressure, with a slight recovery in terminal sales observed in September, but overall sales remain constrained [2] - Inventory levels among distributors are high due to sluggish sales, leading to cautious payment collection [2] Regional Analysis - Jiangsu: Stable sales in urban areas, but rural markets are struggling [3] - Henan: Lower-priced products are becoming the main sales drivers due to changing consumer perceptions [3] - Sichuan: Differentiated performance in urban and rural markets, with rural areas showing resilience [3] - Shandong: Sales are influenced by promotional activities, but overall market sentiment is weak [3] Pricing Trends - High-end liquor prices are stabilizing after a decline, with Moutai's price around 1760 yuan [4] - Strong brand power is crucial for performance, with brands like Jiu Gui and Jian Nan Chun showing better resilience [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with the upcoming Q3 earnings disclosures, risks may be fully released, and the sector could see a recovery in sentiment [5] - Key investment lines include: 1. High elasticity stocks under policy expectations: Jiu Gui, She De, Shui Jing Fang, Lao Jiao, Hua Zhi [5] 2. Stocks benefiting from consumer recovery: Gu Jing Gong Jiu, Ying Jia, Jin Si Yuan [5] 3. Strong alpha stocks: Moutai, Fen Jiu [5]

Summary of the White Liquor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The white liquor industry has been declining annually since 2022, with expectations to reach a phase bottom by 2025, where stock prices typically bottom out before fundamentals do [1][2][3] - Key indicators to monitor include inventory clearance and demand stimulation, which can provide positive feedback signals [1] Core Insights and Arguments - Stock selection should focus on leading companies' strategies, cash flow status, and price trends, with Moutai's old liquor prices being a sensitive indicator for professional consumers [1][4][5] - The last cycle's bottoming out was marked by supply-side pressure reduction, inventory clearance, reforms in leading companies, and a rebound in Moutai's old liquor prices, which drove demand from 2015 to 2016 [1][6] - The cash flow indicators in the white liquor industry often lead the profit statements, with a negative cash flow forecast for Q2 2024 indicating pressure on profit statements in 2025 [1][9] - Moutai's growth target for 2025 has been reduced from 15% to 9%, with potential for further deceleration, necessitating supply-demand adaptation and product innovation to mitigate impacts [1][15] Important but Overlooked Content - Only Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu maintained positive growth in Q2, while regional leaders are accelerating inventory clearance but at a slow pace [1][16] - The current valuation of the white liquor industry is at a ten-year low, but caution is advised against value traps; using PB-like thinking and dividend yield as references is suggested [1][20] - The industry is expected to see a significant influx of medium to long-term funds, particularly from insurance capital, which may help elevate the bottom [1][21] - The performance of other liquor companies, such as Gujing, Yingjia, and Yanghe, is crucial as they need to adapt to channel changes and capture market share to achieve new highs [1][17] - The relationship between old and new liquor prices is critical, with old liquor prices often leading new liquor prices by a year, serving as a precursor to market bottoms [1][8] Future Trends and Challenges - The white liquor industry is currently facing challenges due to the pandemic's impact on consumption and recent policy shocks, but signs indicate that the worst demand phase may have passed [1][14] - The upcoming quarters will be crucial for observing old liquor prices and cash flow indicators as the industry approaches a potential recovery phase [1][18] - The selection of quality stocks should prioritize companies with stable performance and minimal risk of value traps, such as Moutai and Fenjiu, while also considering those undergoing significant transformations [1][22][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the liquor industry [10] Core Insights - The liquor inventory cycle is gradually turning, with expectations of a demand recovery driven by ongoing economic policies and improved consumer confidence. The industry is entering a critical phase for left-side layout [2][8] - Current valuations and fund holdings in the liquor industry are at historical lows, indicating a favorable time for allocation. Leading liquor companies are showing strong dividend support [2][8] Summary by Sections Inventory Management - The liquor industry has clear inventory cycle fluctuations, with different phases affecting stock performance. The current phase indicates a shift from passive inventory accumulation to active inventory reduction, suggesting a more scientific and rational management approach by manufacturers [6][20][24] Demand Recovery - The demand for liquor is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions. Historical data shows that liquor industry revenue growth aligns with GDP growth, indicating potential for gradual recovery as the economy improves [36][39] Head Brand Concentration - The trend of market share concentration towards leading brands continues, with top companies maintaining stable growth despite overall market slowdowns. In 2024, listed liquor companies accounted for 28% of the total production, a historical high [42][44] Mid-Autumn Festival Performance Review - Historical performance around the Mid-Autumn Festival shows varying results for liquor stocks compared to the CSI 300 index. The fundamental performance remains the decisive factor for excess returns during this period [49][52]

Investment Rating - The report rates the white liquor industry as "Positive" (First Time) [1] Core Viewpoints - The current moment is seen as a potential starting point for absolute returns in the white liquor sector, considering the cyclical learning effects [4] - The white liquor industry has returned to cyclical characteristics, with fund holdings dropping to levels seen in 2017, and the food and beverage sector's overweight ratio has decreased significantly from a peak of 11% in 2019 to 3.2% [4][13] - The valuation of the white liquor sector has declined by 72% over the past four years, indicating a slow and steady adjustment process, unlike previous cycles [4][18] - Historical analysis suggests that the bottoming out of the white liquor index occurred after the 2014 Spring Festival, which is anticipated to happen again during the current cycle [5][22] Summary by Sections 1. Decline in White Liquor Holdings and Return to Cyclical Stock Characteristics - Fund holdings in the white liquor sector have decreased to 2017 levels, indicating a shift back to cyclical stock characteristics [10][13] - The overweight ratio of the food and beverage sector has significantly decreased, reflecting a gradual exit of funds focused on long-term value [4][13] 2. Review of Previous Cycle's Bottoming Characteristics - The previous cycle's bottoming process involved several stages, including a decline in dealer profitability, reduced receivables, and a subsequent recovery in real demand [4][18] - The current cycle is expected to show a similar pattern, with the learning effect potentially leading to an earlier inflection point for absolute returns [4][18] 3. Upcoming Investment Timing - The report suggests monitoring for signs of risk clearance in financial statements and early inventory reduction among dealers as indicators for potential investment opportunities [4][6] - Specific companies to watch include Luzhou Laojiao for its high dividend yield and Yingjia Gongjiu for its low valuation and inventory clearance [4][6]

Summary of the White Wine Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The white wine industry has experienced four cycles since 2000: 1999-2003, 2008-2009, 2012-2015, and 2022-present, each with unique macroeconomic environments and market performances [2][8] Key Points and Arguments - The current white wine cycle is similar to the 2013-2015 cycle, which was marked by a significant downturn due to the "Three Public Consumption" ban, impacting high-end white wine markets, particularly Moutai, which saw wholesale prices drop from 1,850 RMB to 850 RMB [3][10] - During the 2013-2015 cycle, the white wine stock index fell by 46% from January 2013 to June 2014, but began to rebound in June 2014, ahead of fundamental performance confirmation [5][11] - Improvement in the fundamentals is evident, with a narrowing decline in advance receipts and positive operating cash flow trends, indicating that companies are emerging from a low point [6][11] - Liquidity expectations improved significantly with the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect in late 2014, which attracted foreign investment into A-shares, particularly in consumer stocks [7][9] Important but Overlooked Content - The current cycle faces challenges such as overcapacity and macroeconomic impacts, but leading companies have a more concentrated market share, allowing them to better manage market fluctuations and maintain smoother inventory and channel cycles [10][12] - Changes in consumer drinking habits, particularly among younger demographics, are shifting towards more personalized and lower-alcohol options, which may affect the overall recovery of white wine consumption in the long term [10][11] - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are critical periods for assessing whether the white wine market has truly bottomed out [11][12]