人民财讯8月24日电，重庆建工(600939)8月24日晚间披露2025年半年报，上半年实现营业收入143.59亿 元，同比下降7.97%；归母净利润亏损2.49亿元，上年同期净亏损1884.26万元。 2025年上半年，房地产行业持续下行、建筑业深度调整，受部分项目开工率不足、建设进度滞后的影 响，公司营业收入同比下降；市场竞争加剧、工期延长等因素导致毛利率下滑。 转自：证券时报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in revenue but a drastic decline in net profit, indicating challenges in profitability despite higher sales figures [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 38.199 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.46% [1]. - Net profit fell to 759 million yuan, marking a new low in the past decade, with a year-on-year decline of 86.41% [1]. - Total profit decreased by 51.07% to 1.263 billion yuan, and the gross profit margin dropped to 14.82% [1][4]. - Cash reserves decreased to approximately 28.636 billion yuan, down from 32.565 billion yuan at the end of the previous year [1]. Market Strategy and Operations - The company experienced a significant contraction in project expansion and development strategies, with a notable reduction in land acquisitions [5]. - The company only acquired two land parcels in Chengdu for approximately 2 billion yuan, the smallest investment among leading real estate firms [5]. - The company sold seven commercial plots in Shenzhen at a discounted price, indicating a shift towards cash preservation [2][6]. Management Changes - The company underwent significant management changes, including the resignation of key executives such as the chairman and several vice presidents [7][8]. - The departure of long-standing executives raises concerns about the company's strategic direction amid a challenging market environment [8]. - The new leadership under Guo Lingyong faces the challenge of navigating the company through a declining real estate market [8].

证券研究报告 | 行业专题研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 20 年 月 日 房地产开发 2024 开发房企年报综述：行业全面亏损，头部房企依然具备显著竞争优势 2024 年，开发房企逐步走出结转高峰，行业整体营收规模开始萎缩；盈利能力不 断弱化及房价下跌带来减值压力，行业出现大面积亏损；房企在融资销售两端承 压下，在手现金也延续较快下降速度。我们统计了全行业 168 家开发房企财务数 据。2024 年，开发房企整体实现营收 4.33 万亿元（人民币，同比-19.2%，下同）； 实现净利润-3763 亿元（较 2023 年-19 亿元大幅下行）；实现归母净利润-3740 亿 元（-771.4%）。利润率方面，2024 年开发房企整体毛利率为 15.3%（-1.9pct）； 归母净利润率为-8.6%（-7.8pct）。期内，168 家开发房企实现归母净利润为正有 68 家，亏损有 100 家；归母净利润增长的仅 38 家，下降的有 130 家。流动性方 面，期末开发房企在手现金规模为 1.63 万亿元（-19.4%）。 重点国央企在营收、盈利等方面承压，但相较行业整体依然具备显著竞争优势。 我们选 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 20 日 万科 A（000002.SZ） 25Q1 业绩受开发毛利率进一步下行拖累，大股东持续 支持帮助公司妥善化解到期债务 （1）25Q1 业绩受开发毛利率进一步下行拖累仍为亏损；（2）开发业务方面， 公司积极开展资源盘活，25Q1 实现盘活回款 24 笔，合计 40.9 亿；（3）经 营业务方面，维持稳健发展；（4）债务层面，积极通过资产交易及大股东借款 应对短期债券偿付压力。预计 25E/26E/27E EPS 分别为-1.35/-0.52/-0.14 元/ 股，当前股价对应 PE 分别为-5.0/-13.2/-49.2，综合考虑公司销售仍面临下行压 力以及公司截止目前积极处置及抵押资产以应对公开债务偿付的情况，维持"增 持"评级，投资人可关注公司后续债务化解进度 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 465739 | 343176 | 237689 | 169777 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][23]. Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit have both declined significantly, with a 10.2% decrease in revenue to 311.7 billion yuan and a 58.6% drop in net profit to 5 billion yuan in 2024, primarily due to reduced delivery scale, declining gross margin, and impairment provisions totaling approximately 5.5 billion yuan [1][9]. - Despite the decline in sales area by 24.7% to 17.97 million square meters and sales amount by 23.5% to 323 billion yuan, the company maintained its leading position in the industry for the second consecutive year, with a stable sales amount attributable to shareholders of approximately 246.5 billion yuan [2][10]. - The company has optimized its debt structure, with the proportion of interest-bearing debt maturing in over three years increasing to 39.6%, and the comprehensive financing cost of interest-bearing debt decreasing to a historical low of 3.1% [3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 13.9%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, with total impairment provisions of about 5.5 billion yuan [1][9]. - The projected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted to 284.2 billion yuan and 272.3 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 5.2 billion yuan and 5.3 billion yuan, leading to EPS of 0.43 yuan and 0.44 yuan [3][23]. Sales and Market Position - The company’s sales in 38 core cities accounted for 90% of total sales, with a market share of 7.1%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase year-on-year [2][10]. - The company expanded its land reserves, with a total land reserve area of approximately 62.58 million square meters, including 10 million square meters of new projects concentrated in core cities [2][10]. Debt and Financing - The company’s debt structure has improved, with a significant reduction in the cost of new interest-bearing debt, which decreased by 22 basis points to 2.92% [3][12]. - The comprehensive financing cost of interest-bearing debt has also decreased by 46 basis points to 3.1%, marking a historical low [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the construction and decoration sector [5][4] Core Insights - The construction industry is experiencing pressure on revenue and profits, with major listed companies achieving operating revenue of 8.18 trillion yuan in 2024, down 3.70% year-on-year, and a net profit of 168.4 billion yuan, down 14.6% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, operating revenue was 1.84 trillion yuan, down 6.13% year-on-year, with a net profit of 44.5 billion yuan, down 8.78% year-on-year [3][4] - The industry’s gross margin remained relatively stable, while net profit margin declined. The gross margin for 2024 was 10.9%, unchanged from the previous year, while the net profit margin was 2.06%, down 0.26 percentage points year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 9.1%, down 0.1 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 2.42%, down 0.07 percentage points [12][3] - Operating cash flow has deteriorated, with a net cash flow of 106.8 billion yuan in 2024, down 62 billion yuan year-on-year. In Q1 2025, the net cash flow was -421.1 billion yuan, an increase in outflow of 10.9 billion yuan year-on-year [4][18] - The industry’s return on equity (ROE) decreased, with an overall ROE of 4.93% in 2024, down 1.16 percentage points year-on-year, and 1.29% in Q1 2025, down 0.19 percentage points year-on-year [22][4] Summary by Sections 1. Financial Overview of Listed Companies - The construction industry faced revenue and profit pressures in 2024, with significant declines in both metrics due to local government debt pressures and a downturn in the real estate sector [11][4] 2. ROE Analysis - The industry ROE declined, with a notable drop in central state-owned enterprises, while private enterprises showed some improvement [22][4] 3. Growth Analysis - Revenue growth slowed, with a decline in prepayments for central state-owned enterprises indicating a challenging investment environment [11][4] 4. Cash Flow Analysis - The industry experienced weakened operating cash flow, with significant outflows in Q1 2025, necessitating attention to future debt resolution and fiscal funding [18][4] 5. Market Perception - The report suggests that the market underestimates the investment opportunities in the construction and real estate sectors, emphasizing the potential for renovation and infrastructure projects [6][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][9]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 178.95 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.04 billion yuan, down 36.1% year-on-year [4][6]. - The decline in net profit relative to revenue growth is attributed to a decrease in gross profit margin to 14.61% from 15.89% and a significant increase in asset impairment losses [6]. - The company has focused on core cities, achieving a sales area of 9.36 million square meters and a sales amount of 219.3 billion yuan, ranking first in several key cities [6]. - The company has maintained a strong financial position with cash and cash equivalents of 100.35 billion yuan at the end of 2024, and its debt ratios are within safe limits [6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023A: Revenue 175.01 billion yuan, Net Profit 6.32 billion yuan - 2024A: Revenue 178.95 billion yuan, Net Profit 4.04 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue 166.78 billion yuan, Net Profit 4.34 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue 159.94 billion yuan, Net Profit 4.79 billion yuan - 2027E: Revenue 163.30 billion yuan, Net Profit 5.41 billion yuan [3][7]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) projections: - 2024A: 0.45 yuan - 2025E: 0.48 yuan - 2026E: 0.53 yuan - 2027E: 0.60 yuan [3][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has acquired 26 land parcels in 2024, with a total land price of approximately 48.6 billion yuan, focusing 90% of its investment in core cities [6]. - The company’s investment in first-tier cities accounted for 59% of total investments, indicating a strategic focus on urban development [6]. - The company is expected to outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months, reflecting confidence in its market position [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - For Treasury bonds, expect increased volatility and remain cautious [6][7] - For stock indices, be optimistic about the long - term performance and wait for opportunities to go long [10][11] - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains strong, and previous long positions can be held [12][13][14] - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [15][16] - For iron ore, investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels, and participate with a light position [17][18][19] - For coking coal and coke, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [20][21] - For ferroalloys, consider manganese silicon out - of - the - money call options at low levels and short - covering opportunities for silicon iron at the bottom, or consider out - of - the - money call options at low levels if there are large spot losses [22][23] - For crude oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [24][25][26] - For fuel oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [27][28][29] - For synthetic rubber, expect weak oscillations [30][31] - For natural rubber, expect weak oscillations [32][33] - For PVC, expect bottom oscillations [34][35][37] - For urea, expect short - term weakness [38][39] - For p - xylene (PX), expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and operate with caution [40][41] - For PTA, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [42] - For ethylene glycol, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [43][44] - For staple fiber, expect bottom adjustments following the cost side, and participate with caution [45] - For bottle chips, expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and pay attention to cost price changes [46][47] - For soda ash, expect short - term weakness [48] - For glass, expect a weak market sentiment [49] - For caustic soda, price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games, and beware of premature market movements [50][51] - For pulp, expect a weak and low - level repeated oscillation [52] - For lithium carbonate, expect a weak operation [53] - For copper, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [54][55] - For tin, expect price oscillations, control risks in the short term, and wait for the release of risk sentiment [56] - For nickel, control risks in the short term, and wait for the macro sentiment to stabilize [57] - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, consider short - selling at high levels on rebounds [58][59][60] - For soybean oil and soybean meal, remain on the sidelines for soybean meal; for soybean oil, consider out - of - the - money call options at the bottom support range [61][62] - For palm oil, remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to widen the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [65][66] - For cotton, wait to short sell the far - month contract at high prices after a rebound [67][68][69] - For sugar, remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] - For apples, consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] - For live pigs, consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] - For eggs, wait for the release of the current market sentiment [81][82] - For corn, remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] - For logs, beware of a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [85][86] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a differentiated close of Treasury bond futures, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts having different price changes. The central bank conducted 250.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 222 billion yuan [5] - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, and it is advisable to remain cautious [6] Stock Indices - The previous trading day saw slight oscillations in stock index futures, with different changes in the main contracts of various indices [8][9] - The first - quarter fiscal revenue decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 4.2%. In March, total social power consumption increased by 4.8% year - on - year [9] - Although there are concerns about corporate profit growth and global recession, domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. Be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets [10] Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw gold and silver main contracts with different price changes. The complex global trade and financial environment, potential monetary policy easing, and other factors are expected to drive up the price of gold [12] - Be optimistic about the long - term value of gold, and previous long positions can be held [13] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses rebar prices, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. Hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Steel prices are at a low valuation, and the downward space may be limited [15] Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in iron ore futures. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in imports and port inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high among black - series products. Consider buying at low levels [17][18] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw weak oscillations in coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the transaction atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. Consider short - selling on rebounds [20] Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw slight declines in the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak while the supply is relatively high. Consider options opportunities based on different situations [22][23] Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil rise and then fall. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC deepened its production - cut agreement. Consider a long - biased operation [24][25][26] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil rise and then fall. Asian fuel oil demand is unlikely to increase sharply. The sales of marine fuel oil in the UAE's Fujairah Port recovered in March. Consider a long - biased operation as the market may be oscillating upward [27][28][29] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of synthetic rubber. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and it may maintain weak oscillations [30] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw different price changes in the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber. Global supply is expected to increase, demand is affected by tariffs, and it may maintain weak oscillations [32] PVC - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of PVC. Supply pressure eases marginally, demand recovers weakly, and it may oscillate at the bottom [34][35][37] Urea - The previous trading day saw an increase in the main contract of urea. In the short term, it may oscillate weakly. Agricultural demand is in a lull, and new production capacity is being released [38] P - Xylene (PX) - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PX2509 main contract. PX装置 maintenance and downstream PTA load reduction. It is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [40][41] PTA - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PTA2509 main contract. Supply and demand fundamentals have few contradictions, and it may oscillate at the bottom [42] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of ethylene glycol. Supply improves due to coal - based plant maintenance, but demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [43][44] Staple Fiber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the staple fiber 2506 main contract. Downstream demand is weak, and it may adjust at the bottom following the cost side [45] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw an increase in the bottle chips 2506 main contract. Raw material prices fluctuate, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [46][47] Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2509 contract of soda ash. Production and inventory are at high levels, and the market may remain weak in the short term [48] Glass - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the main 2509 contract of glass. A production line changed its product type. Production lines are at a low level, and inventory changes little. The market sentiment is weak [49] Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in the main 2505 contract of caustic soda. Production decreased last week, and demand has slightly improved. Price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games [50][51] Pulp - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of pulp. Port inventory increased slightly, and downstream开工 rates varied. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [52] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of lithium carbonate. The trade tariff event affects demand, and supply remains high. It is expected to operate weakly [53] Copper - The previous trading day saw an upward oscillation in Shanghai copper. The price increased, and the spot market had limited supply. Consider a long - biased operation [54] Tin - The previous trading day saw an increase in tin prices. The Bisie tin mine may resume operation, and Indonesian mining costs have increased. Consumption data is good, and prices are expected to oscillate [56] Nickel - The previous trading day saw a decline in nickel prices. The US tariff event has a negative impact on the market. Supply is tightened, and cost support is strong, but demand may weaken in the off - season [57] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon. Supply and demand are imbalanced, and prices are expected to continue to bottom - out [58][59] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw declines in soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts. Brazilian soybean production is high, and domestic supply is abundant. Consider different strategies for soybean oil and soybean meal [61][62] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil had a slight decline. Domestic imports decreased, and inventory is at a low level. Remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed exports decreased. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian products, and domestic inventories are at high levels. Consider the opportunity to widen the spread [65][66] Cotton - The previous trading day saw a weak oscillation in domestic cotton. US cotton export sales increased, and the planting rate is lower than in previous years. Textile exports are affected by tariffs, and domestic demand is weak. Consider short - selling the far - month contract at high prices [67][68][69] Sugar - The previous trading day saw a strong oscillation in domestic sugar. Brazilian sugar production increased, and Indian sugar production was lower than expected. Domestic inventory is neutral, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] Apples - The previous trading day saw apple futures rise and then fall. Cold - storage inventory decreased rapidly, and the market sales are good. Consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] Live Pigs - The previous day saw a slight decline in the national average price of live pigs. Demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. Consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] Eggs - The previous trading day saw an increase in the average price of eggs in the main production areas. Egg production capacity is increasing, and consider waiting for the release of market sentiment [81][82] Corn - The previous trading day saw a decline in the corn main contract. The sales of the current season are almost over, and port inventory is high. Supply pressure exists in the short term, and consumption is slightly increasing. Remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] Logs - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of logs. A tropical cyclone may affect shipments. Inventory is relatively neutral, and beware of a rapid decline [85][86]

龙湖资料图。 标普惠誉为何先后下调龙湖评级？ 王琳 风云变幻的房地产市场中，曾经的房企优等生也难以独善其身。 3月7日，龙湖集团发布盈利警告公告，2024年，龙湖集团剔除投资物业及其他衍生金融工具 公平值变动影响后的股东应占核心溢利预计录得约35%至40%的下降，2023年这一数据是 113.5亿元，照此计算，2024年这一数据预计为68.1亿元至73.8亿元。 对于下降原因，龙湖集团称，主要由于受房地产行业下行的影响，公司地产开发业务的结算 收入及结算毛利率下降所致。 在此之前的3月5日，标普将龙湖集团的长期发行人信用评级从"BB+"下调至"BB"，同时，标 普将该公司的高级无抵押票据的长期发行评级从"BB"下调至"BB-"。2024年10月，惠誉将龙 湖集团的长期外币发行人违约评级(IDR)、高级无抵押评级及其未偿高级票据评级从"BB+"下 调至"BB"，对IDR的展望为负面。 评级下调反映了评级机构对龙湖集团未来偿债能力和运营状况的担忧，可能进一步增加其融 资成本与市场压力。在房地产行业的下行大势中，龙湖集团努力通过多元化业务布局和降杠 杆策略来应对挑战，尽管相对稳健，但仍难以完全抵御行业整体下滑带来的 ...