Core Insights - The liquor industry is facing significant challenges, with Jiangsu's second-largest player, Jinshiyuan, experiencing a revenue decline of 6.07% in its home market during the first half of 2025, with even steeper drops in key areas like Nanjing and southern Jiangsu [1][3] - The high-end liquor segment is struggling, leading to a shift in consumer preferences towards more affordable options, which has become a critical survival strategy for the company [7][11] Group 1: Sales Performance - Jinshiyuan's sales in Nanjing, a crucial market, have plummeted by 7.94%, while the southern Jiangsu region has seen a staggering decline of 11% [1][3] - All six major sales regions for Jinshiyuan are reporting negative growth, indicating a widespread issue rather than isolated market challenges [1][3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable shift in consumer spending, with customers opting for lower-priced products due to tightened budgets, as evidenced by the increased sales of the "Daiya Guoyuan" priced just over 100 yuan [7][11] - The trend of reducing spending on high-end liquor is evident in social settings, where even lower-tier products are now perceived as expensive [5] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Jinshiyuan is in direct competition with Yanghe, leading to aggressive promotional strategies that have resulted in significant discounts and giveaways to attract customers [5] - The company is attempting to pivot its strategy by focusing on lower-priced products to capture market share in rural areas, indicating a shift from high-end positioning to more accessible offerings [7][11] Group 4: External Market Dynamics - Despite challenges in Jiangsu, neighboring provinces like Shandong and Anhui have reported a 4.78% increase in sales, attributed to demand from Jiangsu's migrant workers [9] - The company is facing internal contradictions, as it raises employee salaries by 2.8% for management and 5%-18% for regular staff while simultaneously reporting a downturn in sales [9]

行 业 研 究 投资摘要： 每周一谈：消费预期有望逐步回升 关注大众品修复机会 消费预期有望逐步回升，白酒龙头厂家主动调整增长节奏。上周食品饮料指数 涨幅居前，在近期市场整体回升背景下，低估值的顺周期板块有望逐步受到市 场重视。政策把提振消费摆到更加突出位置，我们认为后续宏观增量政策空间 或主要在于促消费领域，食品饮料各子行业需求改善可期。根据 21 世纪经济 报道消息，房地产市场有所复苏，春节后重点一二线城市的供应量、看房量、 交易量等在快速回升，部分城市房价有所提升。同时，宏观经济指标中社零和 CPI 等有望提振，或将带动消费板块投资情绪回升。 消费预期有望逐步回升 关注大众品修复 部分酒企核心大单品前期相继宣布停货、控货，我们认为酒企控货动作或逐步 推动批价企稳回升。目前白酒行业价格及库存压力仍存，旺季短期上量后渠道 仍将处于去库存周期中，龙头厂家主动调整增长节奏，年内报表压力或逐季度 得到释放。分场景看，宴席和商务场景在 2025 年的回补有望带动各价位带全 国化代表品牌、地产酒和大众价位的出货。白酒板块建议从场景承接、区域格 局优化、渠道率先出清、分红率提升角度寻找白酒投资标的，关注徽酒苏酒等 地产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is expected to gradually recover, supported by resilient operations and structural opportunities within the industry [4][16] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2024, Anhui's large-scale liquor enterprises achieved revenue of 37.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, with total profits reaching 12.77 billion yuan, up 13.2% [4][21] - The liquor industry in Lüliang aims for a revenue target exceeding 70 billion yuan in 2025, with a focus on enhancing production capacity and quality [4][22] - The Sichuan liquor group targets a revenue of 40 billion yuan in 2025, emphasizing innovation and brand development [5][22] - Xishui aims for a liquor output value exceeding 30 billion yuan in 2025, continuing to strengthen its position as a major liquor production base [6][23] Key Company Performances - Qiaqia Food reported a revenue of 7.131 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 4.79%, driven by high-end products [7][24] - Budweiser Asia Pacific's 2024 revenue was approximately 45.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.0%, with a notable decline in the Chinese market [10][25] - Dongpeng Beverage launched a new product "Fruit Tea" aimed at the lower-tier market, reflecting a growing demand for cost-effective, large-packaged beverages [11][26] Investment Recommendations - For liquor, focus on companies like Luzhou Laojiao, Jiuzi Liquor, and others that cater to both high-end and real estate segments [16][30] - In the beer sector, consider Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer for their product optimization and market expansion strategies [16][30] - For soft drinks, Dongpeng Beverage and Bai Run Co. are recommended for their national expansion and clear product matrix [16][30] - In the frozen food segment, companies like Anji Food and Qianwei Central Kitchen are highlighted for their potential growth [16][31] - For snacks, attention is drawn to Salted Fish and Qiaqia Food for their channel expansion and performance recovery [16][31]