前言 各位老酒友最近可能发现了，请客吃饭时桌上的今世缘高档酒越来越少见。如果只是别的地区还可以理 解，毕竟经济下滑带来的所有行业都不景气。 但南京当地市场同样暴跌，就令人有些意外了。要知道南京可是省会重点，当年今世缘靠这里打开高端 市场，如今连自家门口都守不住了。 更扎心的是，江苏六大销售区全军覆没。苏南地区直接跌掉11%，无锡、苏州这些富庶之地，往年都是 高档酒的粮仓，现在连仓库都快堆不下了。 有经销商私下吐槽："现在商务宴请能省则省，去年饭局上摆高档一点儿的今世缘V3是排场，今年连便 宜一档的四开酒都觉得贵了。" 请客的人手头紧，酒桌档次也跟着降级。 白酒行业的寒风终于吹到了江苏老二身上。 2025年上半年，今世缘在江苏大本营收入下滑6.07%，省会南京市场更是暴跌7.94%，苏南地区跌幅高 达11%。 曾经稳坐省内第二把交椅的今世缘，如今六大销售区全线飘红，全是刺眼的负增长。 当高端酒在仓库积灰，百元档产品成了救命稻草，这场寒冬里的王座保卫战，打得异常艰难。 南京城头旗倒了 最要命的是和洋河的正面对决。这两家江苏酒企就像两个武林高手，在巷子里贴身肉搏。 当300多块的V系列在仓库吃灰时，有个意外发现：1 ...

行 业 研 究 投资摘要： 每周一谈：消费预期有望逐步回升 关注大众品修复机会 消费预期有望逐步回升，白酒龙头厂家主动调整增长节奏。上周食品饮料指数 涨幅居前，在近期市场整体回升背景下，低估值的顺周期板块有望逐步受到市 场重视。政策把提振消费摆到更加突出位置，我们认为后续宏观增量政策空间 或主要在于促消费领域，食品饮料各子行业需求改善可期。根据 21 世纪经济 报道消息，房地产市场有所复苏，春节后重点一二线城市的供应量、看房量、 交易量等在快速回升，部分城市房价有所提升。同时，宏观经济指标中社零和 CPI 等有望提振，或将带动消费板块投资情绪回升。 消费预期有望逐步回升 关注大众品修复 部分酒企核心大单品前期相继宣布停货、控货，我们认为酒企控货动作或逐步 推动批价企稳回升。目前白酒行业价格及库存压力仍存，旺季短期上量后渠道 仍将处于去库存周期中，龙头厂家主动调整增长节奏，年内报表压力或逐季度 得到释放。分场景看，宴席和商务场景在 2025 年的回补有望带动各价位带全 国化代表品牌、地产酒和大众价位的出货。白酒板块建议从场景承接、区域格 局优化、渠道率先出清、分红率提升角度寻找白酒投资标的，关注徽酒苏酒等 地产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is expected to gradually recover, supported by resilient operations and structural opportunities within the industry [4][16] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2024, Anhui's large-scale liquor enterprises achieved revenue of 37.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, with total profits reaching 12.77 billion yuan, up 13.2% [4][21] - The liquor industry in Lüliang aims for a revenue target exceeding 70 billion yuan in 2025, with a focus on enhancing production capacity and quality [4][22] - The Sichuan liquor group targets a revenue of 40 billion yuan in 2025, emphasizing innovation and brand development [5][22] - Xishui aims for a liquor output value exceeding 30 billion yuan in 2025, continuing to strengthen its position as a major liquor production base [6][23] Key Company Performances - Qiaqia Food reported a revenue of 7.131 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 4.79%, driven by high-end products [7][24] - Budweiser Asia Pacific's 2024 revenue was approximately 45.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.0%, with a notable decline in the Chinese market [10][25] - Dongpeng Beverage launched a new product "Fruit Tea" aimed at the lower-tier market, reflecting a growing demand for cost-effective, large-packaged beverages [11][26] Investment Recommendations - For liquor, focus on companies like Luzhou Laojiao, Jiuzi Liquor, and others that cater to both high-end and real estate segments [16][30] - In the beer sector, consider Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer for their product optimization and market expansion strategies [16][30] - For soft drinks, Dongpeng Beverage and Bai Run Co. are recommended for their national expansion and clear product matrix [16][30] - In the frozen food segment, companies like Anji Food and Qianwei Central Kitchen are highlighted for their potential growth [16][31] - For snacks, attention is drawn to Salted Fish and Qiaqia Food for their channel expansion and performance recovery [16][31]