Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Monthly Report [1] - Date: November 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Report Theme: Repairing the Basis, Zhengzhou Sugar Shows Strength [5] Core Viewpoints - The peak production season in central - southern Brazil has passed, and the later crushing volume may gradually decline. However, India and Thailand are entering a new sugar - making season, so the supply pressure remains [8][57]. - With the raw sugar price falling below 15 cents, major global sugar - producing regions are in a loss state. But whether it will lead to production cuts is an issue for the next season and cannot improve the current sugar price [8][57]. - Market research institutions estimate that the sugar production in Guangxi for the 25/26 season will be around 6.7 million tons, an increase of about 0.5 million tons year - on - year [8][57]. - Downstream enterprises report weak demand due to the overall macro - economic situation and low enthusiasm for sugar procurement [8][57]. - Recently, Zhengzhou sugar has been significantly stronger than raw sugar. This is mainly because the Zhengzhou sugar 601 contract is approaching the delivery month. The large basis in the early stage and the early withdrawal of speculative short - position funds without delivery intention have led to a rebound in the futures price. It is a short - term structural market, and there is a lack of bullish support in the medium - term fundamentals [8][57]. Section Summaries 1. Futures Market Review - In October, the raw sugar index showed a continuous four - week decline and a downward - breaking trend, breaking through the 15 - cent and 14 - cent marks and approaching the lower Bollinger Band of the monthly line [14]. - The Zhengzhou sugar index showed a weak oscillation in October, with the price once falling below the 5400 mark and then rebounding and stabilizing. The rebound was stopped at the 10 - week moving average and the 40 - day moving average [14]. 2. Spot Market Conditions - In October, the spot price of sugar continued to decline. The spot price of Nanning sugar of Guangxi Nanhua Group dropped from 5810 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5700 yuan/ton at the end of the month; the price of Kunming sugar in Yunnan dropped from 5710 yuan/ton to 5620 yuan/ton; the price of processed sugar in Rizhao, Shandong dropped from 5900 yuan/ton to 5870 yuan/ton [18]. - In October, the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts plus effective forecasts continued to decrease. At the beginning of the month, there were 9464, and at the end of the month, it decreased to 8116. The registered warehouse receipts decreased from 9464 to 7530, and the effective forecasts increased from 0 to 586 [18]. 3. Futures Market Structure Analysis - In October, both futures and spot markets were weak. The spot market continued to weaken while the futures market oscillated horizontally, and the basis continued to shrink. The basis of the 2601 contract against the Nanning spot price decreased from 325 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 206 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the basis of the 2605 contract decreased from 356 yuan/ton to 270 yuan/ton [22]. - In October, the spread between the main January contract and the secondary main May contract of Zhengzhou sugar widened significantly, mainly because the departure of short - position speculators in the near - month contract made the 01 contract stronger. The spread increased from 35 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 65 yuan/ton at the end of the month [22]. - In October, the spread between the London white sugar futures and the New York raw sugar futures main contracts widened, reaching 101 US dollars/ton at the end of the month. The current spread is at a slight profit level for raw sugar processing enterprises [25]. - As of September 23, the net short position of hedge funds and large speculators in raw sugar reached 125,628 contracts, a significant increase from the beginning of the month. Meanwhile, the total open interest in raw sugar futures decreased significantly to 898,935 contracts [25]. 4. Production and Sales Situation - As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03% [29]. - As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in the country were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons, or 23.07%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, a year - on - year increase of 6.52 percentage points. In May, the single - month sugar sales were 869,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22,900 tons. The sales volume in May was relatively low compared to the same period in the past five years [31]. - At the end of May 2025, the national sugar industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons, and it was at a relatively low level in the past five years [35]. 5. Import and Export Situation - In September 2025, the sugar import volume was 550,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons. As of the end of September, the cumulative sugar import volume in the country for this sugar - making season was 4.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12 tons [39]. - In September, the total import volume of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. As of the end of September in the 24/25 season, the total import volume of syrup and premixed powder was 1.5283 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 625,600 tons. In October, China suspended the import of all syrup and premixed sugar from Thailand, and policy optimization may suppress short - term imports [39][40]. - In October, the price of overseas raw sugar continued to decline, and the trend of Zhengzhou sugar was weakly oscillating, with the internal - external price spread widening. The processing profit of Brazilian raw sugar within the quota increased from around 1420 yuan/ton at the beginning of October to 1785 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the processing profit outside the quota increased from around 193 yuan/ton to 678 yuan/ton [40]. 6. Production in Overseas Major Producing Countries - In the first half of October 2025, in central - southern Brazil, there were 255 production units in operation (3 less than the same period in the previous season). The sugar cane crushing volume was 34.037 million tons, a year - on - year slight increase of 0.30%. The sugar production was 2.484 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%. The proportion of sugar - cane used for sugar production decreased by 3 percentage points to 48.2%. The total ethanol production was 2.013 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17% [45][47]. - As of October 16, 2025, in the 2025/2026 season in central - southern Brazil, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 524.957 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.78%. The cumulative sugar production was 36.016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.89%. The cumulative total ethanol production was 25.036 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.23% [48]. - Recently, the port logistics in Brazil has become increasingly tense. As of the week of October 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased from 83 to 90, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped increased to 3.7272 million tons, a 3.3% increase from the previous week [52]. 7. Exchange Rate Factors - In October, the US dollar index showed a strong oscillation. The Brazilian real depreciated slightly against the US dollar, and the Thai baht appreciated slightly against the US dollar [54]. - On October 29, local time, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% and decided to end the balance - sheet reduction from December 1 [55]. 8. Market Outlook - The supply pressure in the raw sugar market remains. Although the production in central - southern Brazil may decline, India and Thailand are starting a new season. The current low price may not lead to production cuts in the short term [57]. - For the domestic sugar market, the supply may increase, but the demand is weak. The recent strength of Zhengzhou sugar is a short - term structural phenomenon, and there is a lack of medium - term bullish factors [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Due to Brazil entering the supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter the accumulation phase, leading to a recent decline in raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar price is affected by the international sugar price, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the trend of foreign sugar [3]. - In the short - term, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to be volatile due to the influence of domestic and foreign markets. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the short - term. For arbitrage and options, it is advisable to wait and see [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: The short - term Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to be volatile. Consider short - selling on rallies in the short - term [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [4]. - **Options**: Wait and see [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes** - The 24/25 northern hemisphere sugar production increase was less than expected, and the 25/26 northern hemisphere is expected to have a restorative increase. Attention should be paid to the Brazilian sugar - pressing situation [6]. - **Brazilian Sugar Production Situation** - **Sugar Production in Central - Southern Brazil**: The sugar production in central - southern Brazil has increased, and the bi - weekly sugar - making ratio has reached a recent high. Although the sugarcane yield per unit is affected by weather and the sugar content is lower than the same period, the sugar - making ratio is high [8][9]. - **Cumulative Sugar - Making Ratio in Central - Southern Brazil**: The cumulative sugar - making ratio in central - southern Brazil has reached a new high, and the cumulative sugar production has also increased [11][12]. - **Brazilian Sugar Exports and Inventory**: Brazilian sugar exports have increased, and the inventory remains at a low level compared to the same period [14]. - **Sugar Production in Other Countries** - **Thailand**: The 24/25 sugar production was 10.05 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons), and the exports from January to June 2025 were 3.36 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 0.82 million tons). The 25/26 sugar production is expected to have a slight increase [15]. - **India**: The 24/25 sugar production was about 26.1 million tons. As of July 15, 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 26.103 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. The 25/26 sugar production is expected to have a restorative increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of the ethanol volume on the sugar supply - demand [19][21]. - **Domestic Sugar Market Situation** - **Sugar Production**: The 24/25 sugar sales - to - production ratio was higher than the same period, and the inventory remained at a low level. The 25/26 domestic sugar production is in an increasing cycle, and it is expected to have a restorative increase to about 11 million tons (subject to weather changes) [23]. - **Import Situation**: The import profit has increased, leading to a strong import expectation. The import volume is expected to increase. In June 2025, China imported 424,600 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392,300 tons. From January to June 2025, the import volume was 1.0508 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 251,200 tons, a decline of 19.29%. As of June in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the import volume was 2.5126 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 649,300 tons, a decline of 20.54%. In July, 469,100 tons of out - of - quota raw sugar actually arrived at the port, and 206,300 tons were forecast to arrive in August [26][34][37]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking No detailed summary content provided in the given text, only some data charts are presented, including data on Brazilian sugar production, exports, and domestic sugar production and imports.

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating [3][4] 2. Core View - Zheng sugar is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to factors such as the expected increase in global sugar supply, upcoming imports in China, and the impact of low - cost substitutes [4] 3. Summary by Related Content Price Data - On June 16, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6130 yuan/ton, in Kunming was 5835 yuan/ton, in Dali, Yunnan was 5780 yuan/ton, and in Rizhao, Shandong was 6185 yuan/ton [4] - SR09 futures price was 5667 yuan/ton with an increase of 3 yuan, and SR01 was 5539 yuan/ton with an increase of 6 yuan [4] - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.2035 with an increase of 0.0040, the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818 with an increase of 0.0212, and the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084 with a decrease of 0.0004 [4] - The price of ICE raw sugar's main contract was 16.54, the price of London white sugar's main contract was 573 with an increase of 3, and the price of Brent crude oil's main contract was 75.18 [4] Supply and Demand Analysis - The sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern part of Brazil in the second half of April 2025 increased year - on - year, and the sugar - making ratio remained high. The expected sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season may reach 42 million tons, indicating a strong global supply - surplus pattern [4] - The previous drop of ICE raw sugar below 18 cents per pound triggered Chinese sugar purchases. The near - month purchase volume exceeded one million tons, and imported sugar is expected to arrive in China from mid - to - late June, increasing supply pressure in the third quarter [4] - The cost of imported sugar from Brazil after out - of - quota was reduced to 5980 yuan/ton, and the price difference with domestic spot prices narrowed to 150 yuan/ton, which stimulated subsequent purchases [4] - From January to March, the import of syrups and premixes was 242,000 tons (equivalent to about 156,000 tons of sugar), and low - cost substitutes continued to squeeze the consumption space of domestic - produced sugar [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry [3][4] Core Viewpoint - Zheng sugar is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating trend [4] Summary by Relevant Catalog Sugar Price and Related Data - On June 10, 2025, the spot price of sugar per ton in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi was 6170 yuan with no change; in Kunming, it was 5900 yuan with no change; in Dali, Yunnan, it was 5820 yuan, down 10 yuan; in Rizhao, Shandong, it was 6185 yuan with no change [4] - SR09 was 5717 yuan, down 17 yuan; SR01 was 5580 yuan, down 10 yuan; SR09 - 01 was -7; the basis of SR09 was 137 [4] - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.199, down 0.0146; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004 [4] - The main contract of ICE raw sugar was 16.7 with no change; the main contract of London white sugar was 573, up 3; the main contract of Brent crude oil was 67.13 with no change [4] Market Supply and Demand Analysis - In the second half of April in the central - southern region of Brazil, the sugarcane crushing volume increased year - on - year, the sugar - making ratio remained high, and the expected sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - making season may reach 42 million tons, leading to a strong global supply - loosening pattern [4] - The earlier drop of ICE raw sugar below 18 cents per pound triggered domestic sugar purchases by ships. The near - month purchase volume exceeded one million tons. Imported sugar is expected to arrive at ports gradually from mid - to - late June, increasing the supply pressure in the third quarter [4] - The cost of out - of - quota imported sugar from Brazil dropped to 5980 yuan per ton, and the price difference with the domestic spot price narrowed to 150 yuan per ton, which repaired the import profit and stimulated subsequent purchases [4] - From January to March, 242,000 tons of syrup and premixed powder were imported (equivalent to about 156,000 tons of sugar), and low - cost substitutes continued to squeeze the consumption space of domestic sugar [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific investment rating for the industry mentioned in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - Zheng sugar is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating trend. The reasons include the increasing global supply of sugar, with Brazil's central - southern region having a high - volume sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season, the arrival of imported sugar in the third quarter, the narrowing price difference between imported and domestic sugar, and the impact of low - cost substitutes on domestic sugar consumption [4]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Data Domestic Spot Sugar Prices - In Guangxi, the price in Nanning warehouse is 6190 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis with SR09 is 455 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. In Yunnan, the price in Kunming is 5915 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton, and the basis with SR09 is 280 yuan/ton with no change; in Dali, it is 5840 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the basis with SR09 is 245 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. In Shandong, the price in Rizhao is 6205 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis with SR09 is 370 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [4]. Domestic Futures Sugar Prices - SR09 is 5735 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; SR01 is 5590 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The spread between SR09 and SR01 is 145 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton [4]. Exchange Rates and International Commodity Prices - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is 7.1975, up 0.0030; the Brazilian real - RMB exchange rate is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the Indian rupee - RMB exchange rate is 0.084, down 0.0004. The ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.51 cents/pound, down 0.11 cents/pound; the London white sugar main contract is 573 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton; the Brent crude oil main contract is 66.65 dollars/barrel, up 1.36 dollars/barrel [4]. Supply - related Information - Brazil's central - southern region's sugarcane crushing volume in the second half of April increased year - on - year, the sugar - making ratio remained high, and the expected sugar production in the 25/26 season may reach 42 million tons. The global supply pattern is strong. Imported sugar is expected to arrive in China starting from mid - to - late June, increasing supply pressure in the third quarter. The out - of - quota import cost from Brazil has dropped to 5980 yuan/ton, and the price difference with domestic spot sugar has narrowed to 150 yuan/ton. From January to March, the import of syrup and premixed powder was 242,000 tons (equivalent to about 156,000 tons of sugar), and low - cost substitutes are squeezing the consumption space of domestic sugar [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests that Zhengzhou sugar (Zheng sugar) will maintain a weak and volatile trend [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The global sugar supply is in a strong and loose pattern, with the expected sugar production in the 25/26 season in Brazil's central - southern region reaching 42 million tons due to increased cane crushing and high sugar - making ratios [4] - Pre - imported sugar will arrive at ports from mid - to late June, increasing supply pressure in the third quarter as ICE raw sugar prices triggered domestic purchases earlier [4] - The import cost of Brazilian sugar after out - of - quota has dropped, narrowing the price difference with domestic spot prices, and the import profit has recovered, stimulating subsequent purchases [4] - Low - cost substitutes such as syrups and premixed powders are continuously squeezing the consumption space of domestic - produced sugar [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Sugar Price and Futures Data - Domestic spot sugar prices vary by region: in Nanning, Guangxi it's 6200 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it's 5945 yuan/ton; in Dali, Yunnan it's 5870 yuan/ton; in Rizhao, Shandong it's 6270 yuan/ton [4] - Futures prices: SR09 is 5763 yuan/ton, down 20; SR01 is 5638 yuan/ton, down 22 [4] - The price difference between SR09 and SR01 is 125, up 2 [4] Exchange Rate and International Commodity Price Data - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 7.2035, down 0.0211; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4] - International sugar prices: the ICE raw sugar main contract is 17.1, up 0.06; the London white sugar main contract is 573, up 3 [4] - The price of Brent crude oil main contract is 62.61, down 0.75 [4] Supply - related Information - The expected sugar production in the 25/26 season in Brazil's central - southern region may reach 42 million tons, strengthening the global supply - loose pattern [4] - Pre - imported sugar will arrive at ports from mid - to late June, increasing supply pressure in the third quarter [4] - The import cost of Brazilian sugar after out - of - quota has dropped to 5980 yuan/ton, narrowing the price difference with domestic spot prices to 150 yuan/ton [4] - From January to March, the import of syrups and premixed powders was 242,000 tons (equivalent to about 156,000 tons of sugar), squeezing the consumption space of domestic - produced sugar [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to remain volatile and weak due to factors such as increased global sugar supply, upcoming imports, narrowed price differences between domestic and imported sugar, and the impact of low - cost substitutes [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information Domestic Sugar Spot and Futures Prices - Domestic sugar spot prices in different regions on May 20, 2025: Nanning warehouse in Guangxi was 6220 yuan/ton, Kunming in Yunnan was 5985 yuan/ton, Dali in Yunnan was 5915 yuan/ton, and Rizhao in Shandong was 6270 yuan/ton [4]. - Futures prices: SR09 was 5849 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; SR01 was 5710 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; SR09 - 01 was 139 [4]. Exchange Rates and International Commodity Prices - Exchange rates on May 20, 2025: RMB to USD was 7.2346, up 0.0080; Brazilian real to RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; Indian rupee to RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - International commodity prices: ICE raw sugar主力 was 17.48, unchanged; London white sugar主力 was 573, up 3; Brent crude oil主力 was 65.48, unchanged [4]. Supply - side Factors - Brazil's central - southern region: In the second half of April, the sugarcane crushing volume increased year - on - year, and the sugar - making ratio remained high. The expected sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season may reach 42 million tons, strengthening the pattern of loose global supply [4]. - Imports: The earlier drop of ICE raw sugar below 18 cents/pound triggered domestic sugar purchases. The near - month purchase volume exceeded one million tons, and imported sugar is expected to arrive at ports from mid - to - late June, increasing supply pressure in the third quarter. The out - of - quota import cost from Brazil dropped to 5980 yuan/ton, and the price difference with domestic spot prices narrowed to 150 yuan/ton, stimulating subsequent purchases [4]. - Substitutes: From January to March, the import of syrups and premixes was 242,000 tons (equivalent to about 156,000 tons of sugar), and low - cost substitutes continued to squeeze the consumption space of domestic - produced sugar [4].