2026年是国内聚乙烯市场发展的标志性节点，行业总产能将首次突破4500万吨(年产能，下同)。受新增 产能集中释放、下游需求跟进乏力等因素影响，行业供需格局将持续调整，市场竞争更趋理性，企业运 营面临新的考验。总体看来，我国聚乙烯产业正从规模扩张竞争向价值提升竞争稳步迈进，结构性调整 已成为行业发展主旋律。 产能持续增长 结构分化加剧 2026年国内聚乙烯新增产能预计达615万~729万吨，产能增速为15%～18.5%。投产节奏呈现"前低后 高"特征，上半年新增产能有限，下半年市场供应逐步增加。 从原料路线来看，新增产能以油制装置为主，华锦阿美、中沙古雷等大炼化企业贡献颇多，同时煤制装 置也迎来集中投产。其中，巴斯夫湛江一体化基地50万吨聚乙烯装置，已于2026年1月投产；中国石油 独山子石化塔里木120万吨二期乙烯项目将于2026年全面建成，包括两套45万吨全密度聚乙烯、30万吨 低密度聚乙烯装置。 从产品结构看，新增产能呈现明显优化趋势。卓创资讯数据显示，全密度装置计划投产量为275万吨， 占比最大；高密度聚乙烯(HDPE)装置205万吨紧随其后。线型低密度聚乙烯(LLDPE)投产速度明显放 缓，部分新装 ...

2026年国内聚乙烯新增产能预计达615万~729万吨，产能增速为15%～18.5%。投产节奏呈现"前低后 高"特征，上半年新增产能有限，下半年市场供应逐步增加。 从原料路线来看，新增产能以油制装置为主，华锦阿美、中沙古雷等大炼化企业贡献颇多，同时煤制装 置也迎来集中投产。其中，巴斯夫湛江一体化基地50万吨聚乙烯装置，已于2026年1月投产；中国石油 独山子石化塔里木120万吨二期乙烯项目将于2026年全面建成，包括两套45万吨全密度聚乙烯、30万吨 低密度聚乙烯装置。 从产品结构看，新增产能呈现明显优化趋势。卓创资讯数据显示，全密度装置计划投产量为275万吨， 占比最大；高密度聚乙烯(HDPE)装置205万吨紧随其后。线型低密度聚乙烯(LLDPE)投产速度明显放 缓，部分新装置计划生产茂金属LLDPE等差异化产品。据测算，2026年LLDPE有效产能增速预估仅 4%，远低于2025年的24%的增速。低密度聚乙烯(LDPE)与LDPE/EVA装置自2025年起投产规模持续扩 大，行业高端化、差异化转型趋势清晰。 金联创分析师周瑞侠认为，2026年聚乙烯行业供需关系将持续调整，整体呈现"阶段求平衡、价格快波 动 ...

Core Insights - The Tarim Phase II Ethylene Project is a key initiative by China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) with a total investment of 29.7 billion yuan, focusing on the production of various polyethylene products and emphasizing innovation and green construction practices [1][2] Group 1: Project Preparation and Execution - The project team initiated comprehensive preparations one month in advance to ensure the accurate positioning of the cold box, employing a "dual crane lifting" technique with a 400-ton crawler crane for the main load and a 160-ton hydraulic truck crane for dynamic adjustments [1] - During the pearl sand filling phase, the project team worked continuously for 24 hours, overcoming adverse conditions such as winter construction and dust weather, to ensure the filling density and uniformity, which are critical for the cold box's insulation performance [1] Group 2: Project Specifications and Goals - The project includes the construction of 1.2 million tons/year of ethylene, two sets of 450,000 tons/year of high-density polyethylene, and 300,000 tons/year of low-density polyethylene, with over 99% application of proprietary technology and over 98% localization of equipment [1] - The project aims to achieve 100% use of green electricity and has industry-leading electrification rates and comprehensive energy consumption, aligning with its commitment to green and low-carbon development [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Petrochemical has successfully trial-produced three new product grades in a week, showcasing its commitment to developing a high-quality product matrix and overcoming technical challenges since its inception nearly three years ago [1] Group 1: Product Development and Market Expansion - Guangdong Petrochemical has exported over 2 million tons of various products since 2025, reaching international markets in over 10 countries and regions, with a product qualification rate of 100% [3] - The company has optimized its refining processes to meet international standards, achieving significant improvements in key performance indicators such as smoke point and sulfur content in its aviation fuel and ultra-low sulfur diesel [2][3] - The company has developed 20 high-efficiency new material products, with three grades reaching international advanced levels, leading the industry in both variety and production volume [8] Group 2: Technological Innovations and Operational Efficiency - The company has implemented over 230 production transitions across its four polyethylene units, demonstrating its agility in responding to market demands [8] - Through continuous optimization of its processes, Guangdong Petrochemical has maintained a xylene purity of over 99.75% and a yield stability between 96% and 97% [5][6] - The company has significantly reduced energy consumption in its operations, achieving a decrease of 1.4 kg standard oil per ton in August compared to July [5]

Core Insights - Guangdong Petrochemical has successfully trial-produced three new product grades in a week, showcasing its commitment to developing a high-quality product matrix [1] - The company has exported over 200 million tons of various products since 2025, achieving a 100% product qualification rate and gaining high recognition from international clients [2] Production and Innovation - The company has optimized its operations by adjusting over 20 parameters and conducting nearly 100 experiments, resulting in significant improvements in product quality, such as increasing aviation fuel smoke point and achieving ultra-low sulfur diesel standards [2] - The aromatics unit has maintained a product purity of over 99.75%, significantly exceeding national standards, and has implemented innovative designs to reduce emissions and enhance energy efficiency [3][4] Product Development - Guangdong Petrochemical has completed over 230 production transitions across its four polyolefin units, emphasizing its focus on new product development [5] - The company successfully developed 20 high-efficiency new material products, with several achieving international advanced levels, positioning it as a leader in the Chinese petroleum refining industry [5]

Core Viewpoint - The successful trial run of the 400,000 tons/year high-density polyethylene (HDPE) production facility in Guangxi fills a gap in the high-end chemical new materials industry in the Southwest region of China [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The facility utilizes the advanced UNIPOL gas-phase fluidized bed polyethylene production technology, which offers high production efficiency, stable product quality, and low energy consumption [1] - The project is built on Guangxi Petrochemical's existing crude oil processing capacity of 10 million tons/year, adding 1.2 million tons/year of ethylene and downstream facilities [1] Group 2: Strategic Importance - The completion and operation of this project will facilitate the transformation of China National Petroleum Guangxi Petrochemical from a "fuel-type" to a "chemical products and organic materials-type" enterprise [1] - This transition aims to modernize the energy chemical materials industry from a refining-centric model to a "basic + high-end" model, addressing the high-end chemical new materials gap in the region [1] - The project is significant for meeting market demands along the new western land-sea corridor and for creating a trillion-yuan petrochemical industry cluster aimed at ASEAN markets [1]

Core Insights - The company has implemented process and energy optimization strategies, resulting in increased production of ethylene by over 30 tons and propylene by 10 tons daily through effective resource management [1] - The focus on technological innovation has led to the development of 14 types of metallocene polyethylene products and significant improvements in product variety, capacity, and production flexibility [1][2] - The company has achieved substantial cost reductions and efficiency gains through various projects, including the recovery of dry gas and the automation of cracking furnace operations [2] Group 1 - The company has successfully isolated hydrogen gas to enhance production efficiency, leading to a daily increase of 30 tons of ethylene and 10 tons of propylene [1] - The implementation of a smart management system has enabled 15-minute intelligent scheduling, significantly improving marginal benefits from crude oil processing [2] - The company has achieved a historical high in daily ethylene production, exceeding 4,000 tons for six consecutive months [2] Group 2 - The company has completed 615 domestic replacements of equipment parts, contributing to significant cost savings in energy consumption [3] - The introduction of domestic catalysts has reduced reliance on imports and enhanced production capabilities in various departments [2][3] - The company has successfully modified its fertilizer production processes, resulting in the production of over 320,000 tons of functional urea and an efficiency gain of over 34 million yuan [2]

Core Insights - The company has achieved a leading position in refining and chemical processing within the PetroChina group, with a significant increase in high-end product output and efficiency improvements in operations [1][2][3] Group 1: Production and Efficiency - In the first quarter, the company processed 1.895 million tons of crude oil, producing 519,600 tons of ethylene, 229,000 tons of urea, and 220,400 tons of new materials, with high-end products accounting for over 63% of total output [1] - The company has implemented several key engineering projects, including a carbon recovery unit that has reduced pollutant emissions and increased economic benefits since its successful operation in September 2024 [1] - The company has enhanced its production efficiency through various projects, including the renovation of polypropylene units and the development of new materials, significantly increasing product variety and production capacity [1] Group 2: Operational Strategies - The company employs a "Four Precision" strategy focusing on meticulous management and operational optimization, which has led to a dynamic adjustment of product structures and improved production efficiency [2] - The implementation of a real-time online optimization system has ensured consistent high production levels, with ethylene production exceeding 4,000 tons per day for six consecutive months [2] - The company has established a closed-loop management mechanism for production anomalies, resulting in a 33.3% reduction in production fluctuation frequency [2] Group 3: Innovation and Market Adaptation - The company has prioritized innovation as a key driver for growth, successfully producing polyolefin elastomers (POE) using gas-phase technology for the first time in the country, with production exceeding 10,000 tons in the first quarter [3] - The company is focusing on optimizing product structures and enhancing service offerings for high-end products, including POE and lithium battery separator materials, leading to significant sales increases [3] - Future plans include maintaining a focus on innovation, green transformation, and value-driven growth to achieve high-quality development [3]