国泰海通晨报 2025 年 12 月 19 日 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 侯欢(分析师) 021-23185643 houhuan@gtht.com S0880525040074 梁中华(分析师) 021-23219820 liangzhonghua@gtht.com S0880525040019 宏观快报点评：《广义财政仍需加力》2025-12-18 狭义收入：增速回落。 2025 年 1-11 月，全国一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.8%。其中，11 月当 月收入持平于 2024 年同期，增速边际回落。本月狭义预算收入增速创下半年新低。从主要分项看，在 基数抬升的情况下，个人所得税、增值税收入仍有不错表现。不过，企业所得税收入受到较大扰动， 同比增速转负。此外，在低基数下，消费税收入增速有所回落，出口退税收入降幅明显。考虑到下半 年房地产需求调整，经济增长的内生动能还需增 ...

Core Insights - The leading companies in the mass-market segment are stabilizing, while the liquor industry is experiencing accelerated pressure release, reinforcing market share logic [4][19][39] - The food and beverage sector is expected to show stable overall growth with structural differentiation by 2025, with Q1/Q2/Q3 revenues growing by +2.5%/+2.4%/-4.77% year-on-year, and net profits declining by +0.3%/-2.1%/-14.6% [4][12] - The liquor sector is entering a phase of adjustment, with a consensus on deceleration in 2024, as many companies are adjusting their strategies amid increasing channel pressures [4][19][39] Liquor Sector - In Q3 2025, the liquor sector's revenue and net profit declines have widened, with total revenue of 3,202 billion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year, and net profit of 1,126 billion yuan, down 6.9% year-on-year [19][35] - Major liquor companies are experiencing significant revenue drops, with only a few, such as Moutai and Fenjiu, showing positive growth [20][21] - The sector is facing increased competition, leading companies to prioritize market share over profitability, resulting in a decrease in gross profit margins [33][39] Mass-Market Segment - The mass-market segment is benefiting from proactive inventory reduction and macroeconomic policy support, leading to improved operations for leading companies in 2025 [4][12] - Specific categories such as sugar-free tea, functional beverages, and snacks are showing high growth rates, with companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng leading the charge [4][12] - The snack segment reported a revenue increase of 22.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, despite rising costs in certain product categories [4][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on liquor and restaurant supply chains, particularly companies like Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Fenjiu, which are expected to benefit from policy sensitivity [4][12] - Stronger companies in the mass-market segment, such as Nongfu Spring and Yanjing Beer, are recommended for investment due to their robust performance [4][12] Financial Performance - The liquor sector's cash flow is under pressure, with many companies reporting negative operating cash flows, indicating a slowdown in business activity [40] - The overall net profit margin for the liquor sector has decreased, with only Moutai showing an improvement in gross profit margin due to better product mix [39][40]

Core Viewpoint - Dujiangyan City has achieved significant recognition in the tourism sector, being ranked among the top counties in China for comprehensive tourism strength and cultural tourism integration, attributed to its unique heritage and innovative approaches in blending culture and tourism [1][2]. Group 1: Achievements and Recognition - In June, the "National County Tourism Development Research Report 2025" highlighted Dujiangyan City as a leader across six dimensions and 32 indicators, earning it two prestigious titles [1]. - The city is recognized as a "National Comprehensive Strength Top 100 County" and "National Cultural Tourism Integration Comprehensive Competitiveness Top 100 County" [1]. Group 2: Strategies for Development - Dujiangyan City leverages its status as a "World Three Heritage City" to enhance its tourism offerings, focusing on "performance + IP" as a key strategy for cultural and tourism integration [1][2]. - The city aims to transition its tourism economy from "flow growth" to "retention value" by creating a comprehensive tourism ecosystem that caters to all demographics [1]. Group 3: Cultural and Tourism Integration - The city is actively promoting the deep integration of culture and tourism, emphasizing the importance of cultural essence, tourism as a foundation, technological empowerment, and prioritizing protection [2][5]. - Dujiangyan is developing a five-IP matrix, including "Great Heritage, Great Qingcheng, Great Irrigation Area, Great Panda, and Great Ice and Snow," to enhance its tourism brand [2]. Group 4: Innovative Projects and Collaborations - The city has initiated various projects that combine performing arts, gaming, and cultural tourism, such as collaborations with popular games and films to create themed experiences [3][6]. - A large-scale equestrian performance, "Horse Show Three Kingdoms," and a fire-themed show, "Dujiangyan Night Fire Show," have been launched to attract visitors [4][5]. Group 5: Service and Mechanism Innovation - Dujiangyan City is focusing on service integration, establishing a "full-cycle service mechanism" for tourism consumption, and forming alliances with other cultural heritage sites to create a premium tourism circuit [8]. - The city is enhancing its tourism infrastructure, including a new beverage production facility with an expected annual output value of over 2 billion yuan [8].