10年国开方面，当前250210-250215利差在1-2BP左右，在后续1月左右，250215可能继续作为主力券， 老券赔率不及主力券。另外250220-250215利差在8BP左右，这一利差偏高，250220有赔率，但流动性 不行，在投资者更看重流动性的情况下，流动性较差且有赔率的券仅建议小幅配置关注。 10年国债方面，250016-250011利差在7-8BP左右，250016续发一次后流动性相对有所提高，如果后续流 动性保持增加势头，预计250016会有切换主力券的预期，其与250011的利差也有压缩空间，届时可以逐 步关注其配置和交易价值。 30年国债方面，目前25T6比25T2高出10-11BP左右，在续发后，25T6流动性进一步提高，考虑后续还有 一次续发，预计25T6切换为下一个主力券的概率会不断提高，其交易价值较强，如果25T6成为主力 券，其较25T2利差预计在乐观情况下会压缩到3-6BP左右。另外相对活跃的25T5和230023在近期表现一 般，在其流动性没有提升预期且与活跃券利差不算太高的情况下，投资者在市场波动时偏好超长端老券 的概率较低。 机构择券思路上，从曲线静态及持有性价比来看 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the safety and reliability of the National Development Bank (NDB) bond ETF as a cornerstone asset, supported by substantial government credit [1] - The NDB bond ETF is regarded as a "quasi-gold bond," trusted by institutional investors and providing a convenient channel for individual investors to access high-quality bonds [1] - The ETF offers five key advantages: stable income, excellent liquidity, low investment threshold, tax-exempt dividend income, and serves as a core asset allocation tool [1] Group 2 - As of September 18, 2025, the NDB bond ETF has shown a 1.53% increase over the past year, with a trading volume of 4.61 billion yuan and an active market turnover rate of 89.56% [2] - The ETF has a maximum drawdown of 0.12% over the past six months, which is the smallest among comparable funds, with a recovery period of 8 days [3] - The management fee for the NDB bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, both of which are the lowest among comparable funds [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent stabilization of the bond market and the inclusion of repurchase pledge transactions have led to an increase in the turnover rate of the Sci-Tech Bond ETFs, particularly the Guangfa Sci-Tech Bond ETF (511120), which saw an average daily turnover rate exceeding 80% during the last week of August [1] - The turnover rate is a key indicator of trading activity and liquidity in bond ETFs, with a high turnover rate indicating strong investor participation and confidence in the product [1] - After a decline in investor participation in early August, the turnover rate for the Guangfa Sci-Tech Bond ETF rebounded to an average of 70% in late August, following the stabilization of the bond market [1] Group 2 - Since the end of July, fluctuations in the bond market have resulted in significant discounts for bond ETFs, with many Sci-Tech Bond ETFs experiencing weekly average discounts exceeding 20 basis points [2] - Despite the current market conditions, Minsheng Securities believes that the overall macro environment remains favorable for credit bonds, suggesting that the Sci-Tech Bond sector may not face significant downward adjustment risks [2] - There is potential for expansion in the Sci-Tech Bond ETF market, with 14 public fund institutions having reported a second batch of Sci-Tech Bond ETFs, which could enhance the demand for underlying securities and create structural investment opportunities [2][3]

Industry Overview - The core focus of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry is to reshape demand and expand the market, moving away from price wars towards healthy competition based on product quality [1] - The long-term goal of this transformation is to compel companies to invest profits into research and innovation, ultimately providing consumers with higher quality products [1] - One fundamental solution to the domestic overcapacity issue is to expand into global markets, enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese brands on the international stage [1] Market Dynamics - The current adjustment in the bond market has seen Ping An's bond ETF (511030) leading in terms of controlled drawdown, with the least market discount in the past week and a relatively stable net value [1] - The data indicates that since the bond market adjustment began on August 8, 2025, various ETFs have shown different levels of performance, with specific metrics such as weekly average discount and year-to-date changes being highlighted [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "anti-involution," which opposes disorderly competition and overcapacity in various industries, emphasizing the negative cycle caused by irrational subsidies and blind production expansion [1] Industry Analysis - Local governments have historically used subsidies and preferential policies to attract businesses, aiming for GDP growth, which has led to irrational production expansions without sufficient market demand [1] - This blind expansion results in overcapacity, creating significant inventory pressures for companies, which in turn leads to inevitable price wars [1] - The low-price competition sacrifices reasonable profits, R&D investments, and product quality, resulting in a vicious cycle that harms not only individual companies but also the entire industry ecosystem and long-term economic development [1] Investment Opportunity - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has a duration of 2 years and a current static yield of 1.93%, showing significant differentiation from other market benchmarks and tech bond ETFs [1] - This ETF has ranked first in controlling drawdown during the recent bond market adjustment, with the least market discount in the past week, indicating a relatively stable net value and manageable drawdown [1] - The data table provided compares various bond ETFs, highlighting the performance metrics such as scale, recent discount rates, and year-to-date performance, which can guide investment decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in interest rates show signs of stabilization, with 10-year rates nearing 1.8% and 30-year rates exceeding 2.05%, indicating a demand for short-term recovery in rates [1] Interest Rate and Market Impact - The rapid adjustment in short-term rates has led to significant market losses, with strong short positions indicating a need for recovery [1] - The central bank's recent actions, including substantial reverse repos and excess MLF renewals, reflect a protective stance towards the bond market and liquidity [1] - Despite the equity market's continued upward trend, rising interest rates may gradually dampen the bond market's response to stock market gains, especially given the current weak fundamentals [1] Investment Strategy - The current recommendation is to adopt a rebound strategy, avoiding chasing prices during downturns and considering high-liquidity, high-yield bonds only after rates reach high levels [1] - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has shown the best performance in controlling drawdowns during the recent bond market adjustments, with minimal net value discount and stable performance [1] ETF Performance Summary - The table provided lists various ETFs, highlighting their scale, recent performance, and drawdown metrics, with the Ping An Company Bond ETF leading in terms of controlled drawdown [1]

Core Insights - The total scale of credit bond ETFs is 347.8 billion yuan, with a daily decrease of 460 million yuan [1] - The median weighted duration is 3.9 years [1] - The overall transaction amount is 141.7 billion yuan, with an average single transaction amount of 3.81 million yuan [1] - The median yield is 1.93%, and the median discount rate is -14.7 basis points [1] Liquidity - The average single transaction amount for benchmark market-making ETFs is 4.17 million yuan, while for sci-tech innovation bond ETFs, it is 4.5 million yuan [1] - The median turnover rate is 35.6% [1] Valuation - The performance of the Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has shown the best control over drawdown during the recent bond market adjustment, with the least discount in the past week [1] - The table provided includes various ETFs with their respective scales, recent average discounts, recent declines, and other metrics [1]

Group 1 - Global stock fund inflows significantly decreased to $2.27 billion for the week ending August 20, down from $19.29 billion the previous week, influenced by cautious investor sentiment towards major tech stock sell-offs and upcoming remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium [2] - U.S. equity funds experienced a net outflow of $2.4 billion, reversing the previous week's inflow of approximately $8.76 billion [5] - European and Asian equity funds saw their weekly net inflows slow to $4.2 billion and $0.7 million, respectively, compared to $7.1 billion and $2.08 billion the prior week [5] Group 2 - Global bond funds continued to attract investment for the 17th consecutive week, with a net inflow of $18.82 billion [8] - High-yield bond funds received a net inflow of $3.03 billion, marking the largest inflow in eight weeks [8] - Investors also added $2.52 billion to short-term bond funds for the eighth consecutive week [8] Group 3 - Money market funds saw a net inflow of $13.98 billion, continuing a buying trend for the third week [11] - Gold and precious metals commodity funds experienced a net outflow of $2.93 billion, ending a 12-week buying streak [11] - Emerging market equity funds attracted a net inflow of $4.58 billion after two weeks of net outflows, while bond funds saw a net increase of $2.13 billion [11]

Group 1 - The funding sentiment index is reported at 62, indicating a tight liquidity environment [1] - Overnight (O/N) interest rates are at 1.60, with a range of 1.60-1.65 for government bond certificates or credit [1] - The 7-day pricing range is at 1.57, with a range of 1.57-1.58 for government bond certificates or credit [1] - The 14-day pricing range is at 1.62, with a fixed rate of 1.62 for government bond certificates or credit [1] Group 2 - Ping An's bond ETF (511030) ranks first in drawdown control, indicating a relatively stable net value and manageable drawdown [1]

Group 1: Monetary Supply and Financing - In July, China's M2 money supply increased by 8.8% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 8.3% [1] - The M0 money supply in July grew by 11.8% year-on-year, slightly down from 12% [1] - M1 money supply rose by 5.6% year-on-year, up from 4.6% previously [1] - As of July 31, 2025, the total social financing scale was 431.26 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% [1] Group 2: Company Bond ETF Performance - As of August 13, 2025, the company bond ETF (511030) saw a slight increase of 0.05%, with a latest price of 106.19 yuan [1] - Year-to-date, the company bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 1.04% [1] - The ETF's trading volume showed a turnover of 9% with a transaction value of 2.011 billion yuan [1] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 22.356 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Fund Flows and Leverage - Recent fund flows into the company bond ETF have been balanced, with a total inflow of 63.6784 million yuan over the last 10 trading days [1] - The latest financing buy-in amount for the company bond ETF was 2.6223 million yuan, with a financing balance of 12.1964 million yuan [1] Group 4: Historical Performance and Risk Metrics - Over the past five years, the net value of the company bond ETF has increased by 13.55% [2] - The ETF's highest single-month return since inception was 1.22%, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being 9 months [2] - The maximum drawdown in the last six months was 0.49%, with a recovery time of 23 days [2] Group 5: Fees and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the company bond ETF is 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05% [3] - The tracking error for the company bond ETF year-to-date is 0.013% [4] - The ETF closely tracks the China Bond - Medium to High Grade Corporate Bond Spread Factor Index [4]