Investment Highlights - The company is covered for the first time by CICC with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 38.60, based on a P/E valuation method corresponding to FY2026 at 13x P/E [1] - The company is a leading player in the high-end CNC lathe market, with strong internal competitiveness [1] Business Performance - Established in 2003, the company is rooted in China's manufacturing sector, with a stable growth in its main business. The company is primarily focused on lathes (Swiss-type lathes) and supplemented by machining centers and grinding machines [1] - For FY2025 (Q2 2024 to Q1 2025), the company expects revenue of CNY 4.262 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 780 million, representing year-on-year growth of 36.6% and 63% respectively [1] Market Position and Expansion - The metal cutting machine tools are long-lasting general-purpose equipment, with demand influenced by capital expenditures in the automotive and general manufacturing sectors. The cumulative growth rate of metal cutting output in China from January to August 2025 is 14.6%, indicating a recovery in the industry [1] - The CNC machine tool market in China is projected to be CNY 71.5 billion in 2024, with the company holding a market share of 4.1% (by revenue), ranking first in the lathe market [1] - In March 2025, the company announced the construction of its sixth factory in Pinghu, which is expected to add approximately 3,000 units of assembly capacity per year [1] Profitability and Dividends - The company has shown significant growth in profitability, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of over 40% since FY2023, reflecting stable operational quality [2] New Growth Areas - Since 2024, the company has actively expanded into AI liquid cooling connector processing and humanoid robot components, such as lead screws and reducers [2] - The market has not fully recognized the incremental potential of liquid cooling and robotics, but the company remains optimistic about the opportunities these sectors present [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts EPS of CNY 2.6 and CNY 3.1 for FY2026 and FY2027 respectively, with a CAGR of 22%. The target price of HKD 38.60 corresponds to a P/E of 13x for FY2026, with current prices reflecting P/E ratios of 11x and 10x for FY2026 and FY2027 respectively, indicating a potential upside of 17.1% [2]

智通财经就APP获悉，中金发布研报称，预计津上机床中国(01651)FY2026/2027年EPS分别为2.6/3.1 元，CAGR为22%，给予公司目标价38.6港元，对应FY2026年P/E为13x，现价对应FY2026/2027年P/E为 11/10x，对应涨幅空间17.1%，，公司是中高端数控车床领军企业，内生竞争力突出，首次覆盖给予"跑 赢行业"评级。市场暂未充分重视液冷、机器人的增量潜力，而该行坚定看好其带来的机会。 中金主要观点如下： 扎根中国制造业，主营增长稳健 公司2003年成立，控股股东为日本津上集团，形成车床(走心机)为主，加工中心、磨床为辅的产品矩 阵。2025FY(2024Q2-2025Q1)公司营收42.62亿元，归母净利润7.8亿元，同比增长36.6%/63%。 积极扩产，巩固龙头优势 盈利能力大幅增长，高分红回馈投资者 公司长期以来经营质量(如存货周转、收现比等)稳健，自FY2023以来，公司分红率维持在40%以上。 液冷连接器&人形机器人助力，打开第二成长 2024年以来公司积极布局AI液冷连接器加工、人形机器人丝杠、减速器加工等领域。潜在催化剂：液 冷基建、人形机器人磨床进 ...

Core Viewpoint - 弘亚数控's stock has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.05% and a total market capitalization of 7.297 billion yuan, indicating a mixed performance in the market [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, 弘亚数控 reported revenue of 1.235 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 242 million yuan, down 19.58% compared to the previous year [2]. - Cumulatively, since its A-share listing, 弘亚数控 has distributed a total of 1.522 billion yuan in dividends, with 976 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, 弘亚数控 had 23,500 shareholders, an increase of 4.11% from the previous period, with an average of 12,290 circulating shares per shareholder, a decrease of 3.94% [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 8.4634 million shares, a decrease of 1.8983 million shares from the previous period, and Tianhong Yongli Bond A, which increased its holdings by 789,200 shares to 3.7882 million shares [3].

Core Viewpoint - The National Standardization Administration and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have issued a plan to establish a high-quality standard system for industrial mother machines by 2026, aiming to enhance product quality and equipment upgrades through high-level standards [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Standard System Development - By 2026, a basic high-quality standard system for industrial mother machines will be established, with at least 300 standards to be formulated or revised, including at least 5 international standards [1] - The international standard conversion rate is targeted to reach 90%, optimizing the structure of standard supply [1] Industry Upgrades and Emerging Demands - The plan emphasizes accelerating the development of standards for high-end industrial mother machines, advanced CNC systems, high-performance functional components, advanced manufacturing processes, and key core components [1] - Some critical standards will be set to be moderately ahead of the average industry development level, enhancing the role of standards in leading high-quality industrial development [1] Investment Opportunities - Guojin Securities notes that the "Industrial Mother Machine+" initiative has been advancing over the past two years, promoting both domestic production and industrial upgrades to better meet the demands of emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, humanoid robots, and low-altitude economy [1] - Investment opportunities are suggested in sectors benefiting from domestic production, such as five-axis machine tools, CNC systems, and screw guide rails, as well as in processing centers and grinding machines driven by the demand from humanoid robots and other emerging industries [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the mechanical equipment sector, with specific recommendations for companies such as Yingliu Co., Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Hengli Hydraulic [11]. Core Insights - GEV's new gas turbine orders increased by 35.56% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong demand in the gas turbine industry [25]. - Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus Gen3, is set to launch a prototype within three months, with production expected to start in early 2026, which is anticipated to positively impact the robotics industry [25]. - The commencement of the Yaxia Hydropower Station project, with an estimated total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to accelerate the recovery of domestic engineering machinery sales [25]. - The "Industrial Mother Machine+" initiative is driving domestic substitution and industrial upgrades, particularly in sectors like aerospace and new energy vehicles [25]. - The report highlights a robust demand for engineering machinery, with excavator sales showing resilience and growth in both domestic and international markets [30]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Mechanical Equipment Index rose by 2.56% over the past week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which increased by 1.69% [14][15]. Key Data Tracking - General machinery sector remains under pressure, while engineering machinery shows a steady upward trend with excavator sales increasing by 13.3% year-on-year in June 2025 [23][30]. - The gas turbine sector is experiencing a robust upward trend, with GEV's new orders indicating a significant recovery [50]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a stable growth in railway equipment investments, maintaining around 6% growth in 2025 [39]. - The shipbuilding sector is showing signs of marginal improvement after a period of decline, with new ship price indices stabilizing [41]. - Oil service equipment is showing signs of bottoming out, with global rig counts increasing, indicating a recovery in oil service demand [42].

Group 1 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasizes the need to strengthen and optimize the machine tool industry, leveraging the rising cycle of machine tool replacement and upgrades, and accelerating digital transformation through artificial intelligence [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other governmental bodies, has issued a plan to accelerate the large-scale application of industrial internet in the electronic information manufacturing industry [1] - The domestic machine tool market in China is characterized by a rich variety of products, with a significant proportion of CNC lathes and machining centers. The CNC rate for metal cutting machine tools is projected to reach 43.71% in 2024, indicating substantial room for improvement compared to Japan, the US, and Germany, where the CNC rates exceed 70% [1] Group 2 - The market for industrial internet platforms and solutions in China is expected to reach 193.12 billion yuan by 2025, highlighting the growing importance of industrial Ethernet switches in automation and digital transformation [2] - The global market for industrial Ethernet switches is projected to grow to 4.525 billion USD by 2026, reflecting the increasing demand for digital solutions in industrial settings [2] Group 3 - Companies such as Huachen Equipment, Qinchuan Machine Tool, and Rifa Precision Machinery are primarily engaged in the manufacturing of processing machine tools and grinding machines [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a net profit of 300 million yuan in 2024, representing an 80% year-on-year increase, despite a 6% decline in revenue to 2.221 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.221 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 300 million yuan, up 80% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin was 25.89%, an increase of 6.91 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 13.63%, up 6.03 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company generated revenue of 440 million yuan, a 10% decline year-on-year, with a net profit of 59 million yuan, a 1% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The company is a leading global player in electric tool chucks, with a market share of nearly 50%, and has expanded its business into high-end precision machine tools and smart manufacturing solutions [1] - In 2024, the electric tool accessories business generated revenue of 1.138 billion yuan, a 30% increase year-on-year, accounting for 51% of total revenue [2] - The company has established subsidiaries in Vietnam and Mexico to enhance overseas customer service and order acquisition capabilities [2] Group 3: New Energy and High-end Equipment - The new energy business generated revenue of 809 million yuan in 2024, a 33% decline year-on-year, making up 36% of total revenue [2] - The company is actively developing battery packs and battery swap stations, leveraging existing customer advantages in the cordless and lithium battery trends [2] - The high-end equipment manufacturing business reported revenue of 201 million yuan in 2024, an 8% decline year-on-year, representing 9% of total revenue [3] - The company’s subsidiary, Jinan Yijian, is recognized as a model enterprise in the machine tool industry, focusing on hub machine tools and automation production lines [3]

Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of CNY 654 million, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 132 million and a net cash flow from operating activities of CNY 140 million [1] - Gross margin was 30.93% and net margin was 20.3%, both remaining relatively stable [1] - Operating expense ratio increased to 11.66%, up by 3.74%, driven by a 68.38% increase in sales expenses and a 46.3% increase in R&D expenses [1] Market Conditions - Domestic market demand is expected to remain under pressure in the first half of 2025, with a potential improvement in the second half due to a lower comparative base [2] - Overseas revenue accounts for approximately one-third of total income, showing an upward trend, particularly in regions along the "Belt and Road" initiative and core developed countries [2] Business Strategy - The company plans to enhance production capacity with new facilities coming online in early 2024, increasing the self-manufacturing rate of key components to 70% [3] - Differentiated competition strategies include balancing price and order configurations, launching new products, and adjusting product structures to meet market demands [3] - The revenue share of mid-to-high-end products is gradually increasing, with specific growth in CNC drills (8.04%) and panel saws (16.55%) [3] Future Capital Expenditure - The company has planned capital expenditures exceeding CNY 100 million over the next two to three years for new construction projects in Foshan, with basic construction already underway [4] Investor Interaction Insights - In Q1 2025, domestic sales accounted for about two-thirds of total revenue, showing a slight decline year-on-year, while overseas sales experienced moderate growth [5] - The company maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the market in 2025, noting that competition and evolving demand present opportunities for growth [10]