固态变压器 SST 产业趋势凸显，多厂商布局看好应用前景- 新能源 20250824 摘要 固态变压器（SST）通过集成变流器，实现 10 千伏交流电到 800 伏直 流电的转换，简化链路并提高效率，满足 AI 数据中心日益增长的功率需 求，尤其适用于英伟达等高功率密度应用。 国内外企业在固态变压器领域均处于早期阶段，中国西电已在数据中心 应用 2.4 兆瓦 SST，运行良好。阳光电源、金盘科技等公司正进行研发 和试点，预计 2027-2028 年实现规模化部署。 固态变压器当前价格较高（海外每瓦 7-14 元人民币），但随着技术进 步和规模化生产，成本有望下降。AI 数据中心对大功率供电的强劲需求 推动市场潜力，但年化 100GW 规模尚难准确判断。 固态变压器通过半导体元件替代传统铁芯绕组，实现电压变换和能量控 制，工作频率高达上千赫兹，体积缩小至 1/5，转换效率高达 98%以上， 功率密度超过 10 千瓦/公斤，是传统变压器的十倍以上。 预计 2025 年全球人工智能数据中心（AIDC）市场将达到十几吉瓦的部 署量，未来可能接近二十几吉瓦，市场规模将超过 1,000 亿元人民币， 算力需求和大模型变化 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Liquid Cooling Technology Industry Overview - 2025 is projected to be the global year of liquid cooling, with an expected shipment of 30,000 units, significantly higher than the 1,000-2,000 units in 2024 [1][3] - Demand is anticipated to increase by over 30% in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half, driven by IT infrastructure expansion and capacity ramp-up [2][4] Key Insights and Arguments - NVIDIA plans to deliver 5 million GPUs in 2026, corresponding to approximately 60,000 to 70,000 liquid cooling cabinets, indicating a potential doubling of demand [4][5] - The liquid cooling market is fragmented, with leading suppliers like Weidi holding a 30%-35% market share, and North American suppliers collectively accounting for nearly 60% of the market [1][7][8] - Chinese manufacturers face challenges in the international market due to trade issues and technological gaps, primarily participating in Southeast Asian markets while focusing on domestic liquid cooling applications [1][9] Pricing and Cost Structure - The cost of overseas liquid cooling systems is approximately $70,000 for an N172 cabinet and $50,000 for an N272 cabinet, while domestic systems are cheaper, averaging around 2,000 RMB per kW [10][11] - Domestic cooling systems are generally less expensive due to lower component costs and simpler designs, with total costs around 2,000 RMB per kW [12] Profitability and Market Entry - Overseas manufacturers typically require a gross margin of at least 35%, while some domestic companies are willing to operate with margins as low as 20% [13][14] - There are currently no clear indications that domestic companies can directly enter the overseas market, although some have received certifications from major clients like NVIDIA [15] Technological Developments - The liquid cooling technology is evolving, with potential shifts towards hybrid cooling solutions that combine GPU direct cooling with cabinet-level silent cooling [3][16] - The Rubin architecture may introduce new challenges for liquid cooling systems, necessitating further validation of new technologies [17][18] Future Trends - The development of server power supplies is moving towards higher capacities, with a new generation of 12 kW power supplies expected in early 2026 [19][20] - The transition to high-voltage direct current (DC) power supplies is anticipated, which could enhance energy density and efficiency [20] Challenges in Implementation - The low-voltage 848V systems face limitations due to high current requirements, necessitating the development of high-voltage to low-voltage onboard power supplies [23] - High-frequency conversion technologies present significant challenges in terms of design complexity and cost [24][25] Conclusion - The liquid cooling market is poised for significant growth, driven by technological advancements and increasing demand from the IT sector. However, challenges remain in terms of international market entry for Chinese manufacturers and the need for ongoing innovation in cooling technologies.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The domestic computing power industry chain includes AI chips (e.g., Cambricon, Haiguang), AI servers (e.g., Inspur), server power supplies (e.g., Oulu Tong), and computing power leasing (e.g., Fang Technology, Hongjing Technology) [1] - The market space for the AI industry chain is closely related to the power consumption and quantity of AI chips [1] Core Insights and Arguments - Capital expenditure primarily comes from AI giants (ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent) and AIDC companies (Guanghuan New Network, Aofei Data) [1][4] - Example calculation: 1 million AI chips with an average power consumption of 700 watts correspond to 120,000 servers, with a total power consumption of 1.4GW [1] - Total value of AI chips is approximately 110 billion yuan, AI servers around 150 billion yuan, and server power supplies about 3.2 billion yuan [1][5] - AIDC companies' total capital expenditure is around 28 billion yuan, with 40%-50% allocated to power distribution systems and 15%-20% to cooling systems [1][6] Liquid Cooling Industry - The liquid cooling industry is accelerating and has significant potential, with market size estimates reaching hundreds of billions to over a trillion yuan [1][8] - Liquid cooling market growth is expected to outpace domestic growth, with the overseas market projected to reach at least hundreds of billions by 2026 [8] - The penetration rate of liquid cooling is currently low, but it is expected to expand as the number of domestic chips increases [8] Network Equipment Demand - Demand for network equipment must consider the network architecture of major companies, with specific ratios for GPU optical modules [9] - Accurate calculations of optical module and switch demand require understanding each company's network structure [9] Global AI Industry Trends - Optimistic outlook for the global AI industry chain, with expectations for valuation increases and a turning point for the domestic AI industry chain [10] - Key sectors to watch include optical communication (e.g., Zhongji Xuchuang, Yuanjie Technology) and liquid cooling [10] Companies to Watch - Key companies in the domestic computing power sector include Cambricon, Haiguang, Oulu Tong, and Inspur [11][12] - Monitoring the progress of NVIDIA H20 and RTX Pro cards is crucial, as successful sales could benefit the entire domestic AI industry chain [12] - Other notable companies include Guanghuan, Aofei, Zhongheng Electric, Kehua Data, and Yingwei Technology, which are positioned to benefit from industry growth [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth potential in the computing hardware sector, particularly in areas such as optical modules, PCB, liquid cooling, and AI chips, driven by increasing demand for AI capabilities and infrastructure [5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 13, computing hardware stocks experienced a surge, with notable increases in companies like Cambrian, which reached a historical high, and New Yisheng, which rose over 15% [4]. - Several companies, including Honghe Technology and Industrial Fulian, hit their daily limit up, indicating strong market interest and investor confidence [4]. Group 2: Growth Projections - Institutions predict substantial profit growth for several companies in the computing hardware sector, with Huafeng Technology expected to see a net profit increase of 1479%, followed by Hailanxin at 897%, and KOTAI Power at 685% [5]. - Other companies like Shijia Photon and Yongding Co. are also projected to experience significant profit growth, with estimates of 569% and 489% respectively [5]. Group 3: AI Demand and Infrastructure - The release of OpenAI's GPT-5 is anticipated to further stimulate demand for computing power, with improvements in code capabilities and reduced hallucination rates [5]. - Major cloud service providers are expected to continue investing heavily in AI infrastructure, with capital expenditures from Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta projected to reach $159.38 billion in the first half of 2025, marking a 24.4% year-on-year increase [6]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The AI computing hardware supply chain is expected to maintain high demand, with a forecasted increase in the demand for high-speed optical module products as the industry continues to grow [6]. - The upcoming release of NVIDIA's next-generation AI server chip, GB300, is projected to enhance performance significantly, further driving the need for advanced computing solutions [5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a "slow bull" trend, with significant increases in major indices and a growing number of new investors, supported by government policies and macroeconomic stabilization [2][13][14]. Market Performance - On August 13, the A-share market reached new highs, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording an 8-day winning streak and market volume surpassing 2 trillion [2]. - The number of new A-share accounts from January to July reached 14.56 million, a year-on-year increase of 36.9% [2]. - As of August 12, the financing balance in the A-share market exceeded 2 trillion, reaching 20,203.65 billion, the highest since 2015 [11]. Sector Performance - Since October 9, 2024, several core indices, including the North Securities 50 and the Shanghai Composite Index, have reached new highs [5]. - Various sectors, particularly information technology and materials, have seen increases exceeding 10% since October 9, 2024 [7]. - Specific stocks have experienced rapid growth, with some achieving tenfold increases within a year [9]. Institutional Insights - According to Everbright Securities, the current economic environment shows structural recovery, with policy benefits and technological independence driving market sentiment [14]. - GF Securities anticipates that new capital inflows will benefit brokerage businesses, with a potential new growth phase for the securities industry [14]. - Minsheng Securities notes that the Shanghai Composite Index's breakthrough of last year's high indicates a mature market with low volatility and a potential to outperform U.S. stocks [14].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses HeXin Instruments and its acquisition of Liangxi Technology, aimed at enhancing its R&D capabilities and leveraging Liangxi's advantages in quantum computing [2][4][5] - The Chinese scientific instrument industry is undergoing a transformation, benefiting from policy support and domestic substitution demand, with a focus on high-end equipment localization and mergers and acquisitions as key strategies [2][6][7] Core Insights and Arguments - Liangxi Technology reported a profit of approximately 30 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with an expected annual profit exceeding 50 million yuan, indicating a positive outlook for HeXin Instruments post-acquisition [2][3][5] - HeXin Instruments has faced cumulative losses exceeding 200 million yuan over the past three years, which is nearly equivalent to its annual sales, but the acquisition is expected to help turn around its financial performance by 2025 [3][5] - The acquisition of Liangxi Technology is strategic due to its consistent profitability and 20 years of industry experience, which provides HeXin with a stable revenue stream and enhances its competitive position [4][5] Market Dynamics and Trends - The quantum computing industry is expected to see enterprise-level bulk purchases of quantum computers around 2030, with specialized quantum computers already in use for specific applications [11] - The Chinese scientific instrument industry is experiencing a bull market, particularly following China Telecom's acquisition of GuoDun Quantum, which has increased industry attention and support [10] - The liquid cooling segment has made significant progress in reducing power consumption, with domestic companies successfully entering overseas supply chains [12][19] Additional Important Insights - The customer base for Liangxi's products is diverse, primarily serving the domestic market while also exporting some products, which provides stability for the company [8] - The technological landscape includes advancements in liquid cooling and fiber optics, with Chinese companies making significant strides in the fiber optics market, particularly in data centers [15][16] - The overall outlook for the Chinese scientific instrument industry is optimistic, with expectations of policy support and increased investment opportunities as companies focus on innovation and market expansion [6][7]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The further popularization of AI applications is driving a new wave of data center construction. The domestic data center construction demand is categorized into six major areas: internet, operators, IDC manufacturers, finance, government, and others. It is estimated that from 2024 to 2027, the three-year CAGR for newly added data center power in China will be 37.0%, creating investment opportunities in supporting equipment such as liquid cooling, HVDC, and server power supplies [4][8]. Summary by Sections 1. AI Driving a New Wave of Data Center Construction - The overall scale of data centers in China continues to grow, with the number of standard racks exceeding 9 million by 2024, a year-on-year increase of over 11%. The PUE value has been decreasing, reaching approximately 1.48 in 2023 [17][19]. - The AI data center constitutes a significant portion of the growth, with an expected addition of 3.6GW in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 220%, and 9.9GW in 2027 [8][75]. 2. Multi-Industry Demand Resonance Enhancing Computing Infrastructure Space - Internet capital expenditure is on the rise, with Alibaba and Tencent's combined capital expenditure reaching approximately 52.1 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 112% [10][51]. - The three major telecom operators are increasing their computing-related investments, with a total of approximately 85.9 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 25% [11][54]. - IDC manufacturers are ramping up project construction and resource reserves, with five key companies' capital expenditures totaling approximately 17.2 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.8% [12][63]. 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Leading Companies in Each Segment - As the shipment of next-generation high-performance computing chips accelerates, the penetration rate of AI data centers is expected to rise rapidly, leading to increased demand and technological iterations in multiple areas such as liquid cooling and HVDC [13][78].

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of Celestica, which raised its annual revenue guidance to $11.55 billion, up from the previous $10.85 billion, driven by robust demand from major clients [12][13] - The AI PCB industry is experiencing a significant expansion due to high demand for advanced AI servers, leading to increased capital expenditures and a tight supply chain for PCB equipment [16][17] - The antibiotic sector, particularly for the company Federated Pharmaceuticals, is stable with a growing market for diabetes and animal health products, projecting net profits of 2.839 billion, 2.452 billion, and 2.705 billion for 2025-2027 [29][30] Total Research - As of July 29, 2025, the 10-year government bond yield is at 1.75%, up 11 basis points from the June low of 1.64% [3] - Historical patterns indicate that bond yields can reverse in either a V-shape or W-shape, with the latter often leading to a more significant upward movement [4][5] - The report anticipates that the 10-year government bond yield could rise to a target range of 1.9% to 2.2% in the second half of 2025, driven by economic recovery and inflation normalization [10] Industry Analysis - The communication sector is seeing increased demand for light modules and liquid cooling solutions, as indicated by Celestica's performance [12] - The PCB industry is entering a phase of intensive expansion, with several manufacturers announcing new projects to meet the rising demand for high-end products [17][18] - AI's impact on PCB performance is pushing for upgrades in materials and manufacturing processes, with a focus on higher layer counts and advanced techniques [19][20] Company-Specific Insights - Celestica's second-quarter revenue reached $2.89 billion, a 21% year-over-year increase, with a notable 82% growth in its hardware platform solutions segment [12] - The company is benefiting from strong demand from its top clients, which account for a significant portion of its revenue [12] - The report emphasizes the potential for significant growth in the PCB equipment market due to ongoing expansions and technological upgrades [16][18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a strong performance in the AI sector, particularly in overseas markets, with significant capital expenditure increases from major players like Google and Celestica, indicating a bullish outlook for the AI computing and application sectors [5][6][7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The communication industry is projected to outperform the overall market, with a positive trend observed in the industry index compared to the CSI 300 index [2][1] Company Highlights - Celestica reported Q2 2025 revenue of $2.89 billion, a 21% year-on-year increase, exceeding company guidance, with a notable performance in its CCS business, which saw a revenue increase of 28% [5] - Google achieved Q2 2025 revenue of $96.4 billion, a 13.8% year-on-year growth, with its cloud business revenue rising by 31.7% [6] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the AI computing supply chain, recommending specific companies in various segments such as optical modules, optical chips, liquid cooling, and AIDC [7]

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the power grid and industrial control sectors is expected to continue in the first half of 2025, with potential opportunities for performance and valuation recovery in the second half of the year [1] Power Grid Sector - Domestic power grid investment showed strong growth in the first five months of 2025, with a total investment of 204 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8% [5] - The approval pace for ultra-high voltage projects is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, with significant projects already approved [7] - The demand for ultra-high voltage equipment remains strong, with a projected annual growth rate of around 10% for power grid investment from 2024 to 2026 [10] - The first half of 2025 saw a robust demand for primary network investments, with a notable increase in bidding amounts for key equipment [10] Industrial Control Sector - The industrial control market has shown signs of recovery, with the OEM market experiencing a 3.3% year-on-year growth in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first positive growth in three years [24] - The demand for new technologies, particularly in automation and robotics, is expected to enhance profitability and valuation flexibility for industrial control companies [3] - The overall capital expenditure momentum remains slightly subdued, but a narrow fluctuation in the new cycle is anticipated [18] Investment Themes - Focus on new productive forces, including AIDC and humanoid robots, which are expected to bring significant valuation elasticity [3] - The revival of nuclear energy is highlighted, with a focus on nuclear power equipment and small modular reactors (SMR) as key investment areas [48] - The overseas market for power grid investment is projected to maintain high growth, driven by energy transition and grid upgrades, with a 14.4% year-on-year increase expected in 2024 [4] Nuclear Energy Sector - The global nuclear power industry is experiencing a strategic revival, with significant investments and approvals in various countries, including China and the U.S. [49] - The demand for nuclear energy is increasing due to the need for stable, low-carbon baseload power, with a focus on SMR and controlled nuclear fusion technologies [62] - The nuclear power sector is expected to see a re-evaluation of its investment value as countries prioritize energy security and decarbonization [61]