摘要 周期为轮，科技为翼，把握双擎驱动下的增长新范式 20260107 2026 年机械行业重点发展方向包括机器人、AI 相关设备、未来能源科 技赛道，以及工程机械出口链和顺周期传统机械板块。机器人领域，国 内本体厂商如宇树和乐聚预计将上市，关注东方精工、中坚科技等厂商。 AI 相关设备领域，燃气轮机是数据中心建设的主要推荐方向，杰瑞股份 已获 2 亿美元订单，市值预期可达 1,000 亿人民币。PCB 设备方面，鼎 泰高科、大族数控等公司受益于 AI PCB 需求增加，市值预期显著提升。 液冷设备需求增加，英维克等公司值得关注。 固态电池企业逐步进入小批量产线招标阶段，宁德时代等头部厂商开始 行动。等静压设备是固态电池设备的关键，占比高且难度大，关注先导 智能、海木星等公司。 锂电设备行业订单自 2025 年第四季度起恢复明显，预计 2026 年年报 将呈现业绩拐点，订单增速普遍达到 50%甚至更高。先导智能等企业股 价已显著上升。 Q&A 2025 年机械行业的表现如何，哪些板块最受关注？ 2025 年，机械行业中机器人板块表现尤为突出，上半年迎来了 DeepC 时刻， 市场行情火热。北美算力的崛起也带动 ...

在本届大会的圆桌论坛环节，睿远基金总经理饶刚、建银国际资管副总经理（主持工作）李璐、大成国 际董事总经理柏杨、GOLDEN HEN FUND SPC董事长王庭发、全球价值链投资创始人万成水等来自资 管行业的重量级嘉宾齐聚一堂，分享了他们对2026年的前瞻性研判。 日前，由中国证券报主办的"开放 融合 新机——2025海外投资发展大会"在上海举行。大会汇聚了众多 国内外顶尖资管机构的掌门人与资深投资专家，围绕全球宏观经济脉络、产业变革趋势与未来投资布局 展开深度对话与思想碰撞。 展望2026年，全球市场正处在多重周期交织的十字路口：货币政策的差异收敛、财政政策的持续发力、 科技革命的加速迭代以及地缘格局的深刻演变，共同构成了复杂而充满挑战的投资图景。 宏观驱动因素切换 展望2026年，全球资产定价的底层逻辑正在发生微妙而关键的变化。多位与会嘉宾认为，驱动市场的力 量将从过去几年相对单一的货币政策，转向货币政策与财政政策共同主导的新阶段，而科技加速发展作 为强大的结构性力量，深刻影响着长期市场趋势。 饶刚为这一宏观图景定下了基调。他表示："回望2025年，欧美降息通道和日本加息通道虽然形成了分 化，但从经济总量和 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant "siphon effect" of AI and the accelerated development of satellite internet, recommending a focus on the dual core themes of "AI + Satellite" and four key segments: "Optical + Liquid Cooling + Domestic Computing Power + Satellite" [5][15] - It highlights the expected growth in AI applications, particularly in voice and image recognition technologies, which will drive demand for smart computing modules and CDN services [7][17] - The report notes the increasing importance of satellite internet as a core component of 6G, driven by national policies emphasizing self-sufficiency and technological upgrades [8][18] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Outlook for 2026 - The report suggests actively positioning in multiple sub-sectors, focusing on "AI + Satellite" as the main investment themes for 2026 [5][15] 2. Key Segments for 2026 Segment One: Global AI Resonance - 2026 is projected to be the year of significant deployment for 1.6T optical modules, with advancements in silicon photonics technology expected to become mainstream [6][16] - The report anticipates a substantial increase in the penetration rate of liquid cooling technologies, driven by the release of new computing power chips from major companies [6][16] Segment Two: AI Applications - The development of AI toys and applications is expected to accelerate, leading to increased demand for intelligent computing modules and CDN services [7][17] Segment Three: Satellite Internet Development - The report identifies four key areas of focus within the satellite internet sector: satellite manufacturing, launch, ground equipment, and operations, all of which are expected to benefit from increased demand and government support [8][18] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies across various segments, including optical network equipment, computing devices, and AI applications, highlighting potential beneficiaries in each category [19][20][26][27] 4. Market Review - The communication index experienced a decline of 1.41% during the week of December 29 to December 31, 2025, ranking fourth among TMT sectors [28] 5. Communication Data Tracking - As of November 2025, China had a total of 4.83 million 5G base stations, with 5G mobile phone users reaching 1.193 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 19.06% [29][34]

转自：新华财经 多只概念股迎来"高光时刻"：光模块的新易盛以超420%的涨幅领涨行业，中际创旭以年成交额2.52万亿位居A股第一；AI芯片寒武纪股价超越贵州茅台获 得"股王"称号；全球AI服务器龙头企业工业富联市值高达1.23万亿，跻身A股第九。算力板块的火热背后得益于行业高景气、资金集中关注、盈利兑现与 长期价值共振。 进入2026年，AI算力行情如何演绎？在国泰海通证券计算机行业首席分析师杨林看来，明年预计会有两个关键的趋势：第一，全球AI算力需求持续：海 外云厂商的资本开支增长，将继续驱动光模块、先进服务器和液冷解决方案的需求。第二，国产替代深度推进，以寒武纪、海光信息为代表的芯片公司预 计将实现规模化商业落地，并且伴随着业绩持续验证；此外，为弥补单卡算力差距，采用国产芯片的集群（超节点）解决方案预计将在2026年迎来放量元 年。 AI算力成核心主线 2025年，大模型技术更迭、资本开支以及政策红利等多重因素驱动AI算力需求持续爆发。数据显示，"十四五"以来，我国算力总规模年增速达30%左右。 2025年，在人工智能快速发展带动下，预计我国智能算力规模增长将超过40%。 可以说，算力行业的高景气度是增长 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The gas turbine market is expected to remain tight until 2029, with the order-to-supply ratio projected to increase from 5.15 in 2025 to 5.9 by 2027, indicating strong demand [1][2] - Major players like Siemens and GE are expected to sign a combined 74 GW of new orders in 2025, accounting for 60% of the global gas turbine market [1][2] - The total global order backlog is estimated to reach approximately 230 GW, significantly exceeding the 2025 production capacity of 45 GW [1][2] Demand Drivers - Demand in 2025 is primarily driven by AI data centers, non-AI replacements in the U.S., and global non-U.S. demand, totaling around 80 GW, with expectations to rise to 150 GW in 2026 [1][4] - The U.S. accounts for less than 40% of global demand, while regions like the Middle East, Central Asia, Russia, and Africa represent over 60% [1][4] Future Projections - By 2028, the global order backlog could reach 500 GW, with demand increasing to 190 GW, although production capacity is limited to 80-90 GW due to constraints in key components like turbine disks and high-temperature blades [1][4] Company Insights Jereh Corporation - Expected profit for 2025 is approximately 3 billion CNY, increasing to at least 3.3 billion CNY in 2026, corresponding to a market value of 60-70 billion CNY [1][9] - The gas turbine business is projected to be revised upwards to 400 MW, contributing 3.5 billion CNY in revenue and 700 million CNY in profit, potentially adding 20-30 billion CNY in market value [1][9] - The liquid cooling business may contribute an additional 10 billion CNY in market value, leading to an overall market value expectation of 100-110 billion CNY [1][9] Binlun Environment - Positioned among the top three in North America for liquid cooling equipment, with new orders expected to reach 1.6 billion CNY in 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 300% [3][10] - HRSG business revenue is projected at 1 billion CNY for 2025, with a target of 1.5 billion CNY for the following year [3][10] - Collaboration with Hyundai Heavy Industries to expand overseas markets indicates strong growth potential [3][10] Market Trends - The gas turbine market is anticipated to grow significantly due to increasing electricity demand, particularly driven by AI [6][7] - By 2030, AI is expected to contribute an additional 200 GW to U.S. electricity demand, a figure significantly higher than some reports suggest [7] Investment Opportunities - Companies such as Jereh, Haomai, Yingliu, Liande, Boyin, Wande, and Changbao are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their growth prospects [8] - Jereh and Binlun are expected to outperform market expectations, with Jereh's market value potentially reaching 100 billion CNY and Binlun at 30 billion CNY based on their business development and market conditions [5][15] Conclusion - The gas turbine market is poised for significant growth driven by technological advancements and increasing demand, particularly from AI applications. Companies like Jereh and Binlun are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, presenting attractive investment opportunities.

招商证券国际发布研报称，人工智慧数据中心(AIDC)行业受惠于全球AI发展和算力扩张的强劲势头， 成为机械行业的核心增长引擎。燃气涡轮机受益于北美能源瓶颈和订单量的增长，其数量和价格均呈现 明显的增长趋势。该行的股价分析显示，自今年年初以来，市场对柴油引擎、液冷和燃气涡轮机的信心 有所增强。该行维持行业"增持"评级，在销售和价格同步增长的背景下，该行建议关注燃气涡轮机、柴 油发电机和冷却设备板块。 ...

以下为研究报告摘要： 华龙证券近日发布机械设备行业2026年投资策略报告：2025年年初至今（2025年11月30日），机械设备 行业上涨48.96%，同期沪深300指数上涨15.04%，相对收益33.92%，在一级31个行业中排名第7位。 1.行业复盘与整体环境 2.1重点方向一：成长赛道——人形机器人 投资逻辑：情绪冰点孕育反转，底部特征明显；产业向右，海内外量产临界点已至。 投资建议：围绕"确定性"与"新技术"双线布局，个股恒立液压、三花智控、绿的谐波、东睦股份 （MIM）、海昌新材（粉末冶金）、力星股份。 2.2重点方向二：成长赛道——燃气轮机 投资逻辑：核心驱动力是北美AIDC电力缺口催生历史性机遇；需求端：AI算力引爆电力"军备竞赛"； 供给端：全球寡头格局下的产能瓶颈；弹性较大，增长确定。 投资建议：整机环节（外资主导，关注行业β）；核心部件环节（国产配套，关注个股α）。个股东方 电气、上海电气、杰瑞股份、应流股份、豪迈科技、联德股份。 2.3重点方向三：成长赛道——液冷 投资逻辑：核心驱动逻辑：从"风冷极限"到"液冷刚需"；根本驱动力：AI芯片功耗呈指数级增长；技术 演进路径：三大路线并存，冷 ...

今天，A股三大指数集体收红。截至收盘，上证指数上涨0.07%，深证成指、创业板指数分别上涨 0.27%、0.41%。沪深两市成交额达到18998亿元，较昨日小幅放量379亿元。 尽管指数上涨，但个股跌多涨少，上涨个股1512只，下跌个股3856只，个股涨跌幅的中位数为下跌 0.80%。 指数方面，今天上证指数在12月8日的高点3936点附近遇阻回落。除了该高点是一个重要压力位之 外，达哥近期还提到，9月至10月的上升趋势线也是压力位。 从反弹时间来看，12月16日至今共反弹了6个交易日，低于11月14日-24日的7个交易日，因此反弹 周期并未耗尽。 退一步说，即便今天反弹见到小波段顶部，从历史经验来看，下一个交易日基本也是以震荡为主， 快速杀跌不会太快出现。 由于反弹周期未耗尽，达哥认为，即便市场展开短期回调，幅度也不会太大，一般来说本轮反弹的 中分位是重要支撑。 倘若后续继续反弹，则重点观察上证指数反弹到9月至10月上升趋势线附近时的市场情况。 就经验来说，即便是牛市的中期震荡回落，也不宜空仓。视个人情况，3-5成仓位均可。 今天市场出现了几大现象，值得注意。 首先，本轮带领市场反弹的光模块核心股今天表现有 ...

太平洋近日发布机械行业周报：本期（12月15日-12月19日），沪深300下降0.3%，机械板块下降1.7%， 在所有一级行业中排名28。细分行业看，塑料加工机械跌幅最小，下跌0.4%；油气装备跌幅最大，下 跌6.7%。 AI算力爆发催生液冷散热，关注液冷设备相关标的。 随着全球AI算力需求爆发式增长，传统风冷技术因散热效率低、能耗高、噪音大等问题，已难以满足 高功率芯片和超大规模数据中心的需求，而液冷技术凭借其高热传导效率、低能耗和静音优势，成为散 热领域的技术革新方向。当前，芯片功耗越来越高，如英伟达GB300的TDP功耗预计高达1400W，下一 代Rubin Ultra GPU功耗预计更高，因此需要更加高效的散热来保证芯片的稳定运行，采用液冷技术是大 势所趋。同时，从经济性的角度考虑，施耐德数据显示，在容量相同的数据中心，按每机架20kW和每 机架40kW的方式部署液冷，结果显示，采用液冷比传统风冷分别节省了10%和14%的投资成本。此 外，从政策端看，全球对数据中心PUE的要求日趋严格，以我国为例，国家发展改革委、工信部等部委 联合印发的《数据中心绿色低碳发展专项行动计划》明确提出，到2025年底，全 ...

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the potential recovery in fiber optic cable prices driven by increased demand from AI applications and the acceleration of domestic AI bidding processes [6][19] - The AI ecosystem is continuously evolving, with significant advancements in models and infrastructure, particularly from major players like ByteDance and Google [15][16] - The demand for fiber optic cables is expected to rise due to the increasing requirements for internal network connectivity in AI model training and application deployment [18] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Investment Insights - The opening of the Volcano Engine FORCE conference showcased advancements in AI agent technology and cloud-native architecture [13] - The daily token usage of the Doubao model has surpassed 50 trillion, indicating rapid industry adoption [15] - Google is enhancing its AI ecosystem, with new TPU chips expected to drive demand for liquid cooling solutions [16] - Companies are increasingly interested in renting TPU chips, which will further stimulate ASIC demand [17] - AI is driving the demand for fiber optic cables, with prices expected to recover [18] - Investment recommendations focus on key sectors such as optical networks, liquid cooling, and domestic computing power [19] 2. Communication Data Tracking - As of October 2025, the total number of 5G base stations in China reached 4.758 million, with a net increase of 507,000 from the end of 2024 [28] - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.184 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.99% [28] - The shipment of 5G mobile phones in September 2025 was 24.106 million units, representing an 8.02% year-on-year increase [28] 3. Operator Performance - The revenue from cloud services for major operators showed strong growth, with China Mobile's cloud revenue reaching 56.1 billion yuan, up 11.3% year-on-year [47] - China Telecom's cloud revenue for the first half of 2025 was 57.3 billion yuan, a 3.8% increase [47] - The ARPU values for major operators remained stable, with slight decreases noted for China Unicom [47][52]