大家伙儿老爱吐槽国内油价，说它涨得快跌得慢，简直像个笑话。国际油价一掉，它就装没看见，涨价时候倒追得紧。 可仔细想想，这事儿真没那么简单。很多人没搞懂国内油价到底锚定啥，以为就是随心所欲。实际上，这套机制有来头，牵扯国际市场、国家调控和民生平 衡。 油价这事儿，很多人觉得国内油价不跟国际同步，涨多跌少。其实，国内成品油价格形成机制从2009年就开始逐步完善，核心就是锚定国际原油价格。 不是随便定的，而是挂靠三种国际原油基准：北海布伦特原油、阿联酋迪拜原油和印尼米纳斯原油。这三种油价的平均变化，直接决定国内汽柴油零售价的 调整。 为什么选这三种？因为中国进口原油来源多样，布伦特代表欧洲市场，迪拜是中东的，米纳斯偏亚洲，能覆盖全球主要供需。 国家发改委每天监测这些油价的移动平均值，每10个工作日作为一个调价周期。周期内，如果国际原油均价变化导致国内成品油价变动超过每吨50元，就调 整；不到50元，就累加到下个周期，不动。 调价生效在发布日24时，汽柴油分开算，标准品为基础。2013年3月，这套机制进一步完善，把原先22个工作日的周期缩短到10个，取消了4%的幅度限制， 让调整更灵敏。 那时候正好徐绍史刚上任发改委 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts an expansion of global crude oil supply surplus to 1.9 million barrels per day by 2026, up from a previous estimate of 1.7 million barrels per day, driven by increased supply from the Americas outpacing reductions from Russia and rising global demand [1] Group 1: Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs maintains its price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil at an average of $56 and $52 per barrel respectively for the next year [1] - The risk for price forecasts from 2025 to 2026 is considered to be two-sided but slightly tilted towards the upside [1] Group 2: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October [1] - The primary reason for gradually lifting production cuts is attributed to low commercial inventories in developed countries [1] - While a complete removal of the remaining 1.65 million barrels per day is possible, Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to flexibly pause increases in production quotas starting January next year, anticipating a significant rise in OECD commercial inventories in the fourth quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global economic uncertainty has led investors to seek safe-haven assets, resulting in a surge in gold prices, which reached a new high of over $3500 per ounce on September 2, 2023 [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices hit $3501.59 per ounce during Asian trading, surpassing the previous record of $3500.10 set in April [1]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to a weak dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as inflation in the U.S. accelerates [2][5]. - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified, prompting investors to sell dollars and buy gold as a hedge [2][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Influences - The price of silver also reached a 14-year high at $40.76 per ounce, driven by similar market sentiments [4]. - The pressure from former President Trump on the Federal Reserve and the recent court rulings regarding tariffs have contributed to the volatility in the market [2][4]. - Analysts note that geopolitical uncertainties, inflation worries, and concerns about the health of the U.S. economy have collectively driven gold prices up by 33% this year [6][7]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is reinforced by the recent personal consumption expenditures report, which aligns with analyst forecasts [5]. - Central banks around the world are increasing their gold reserves as a strategy to diversify away from the dollar, further supporting the rise in gold prices [6].

Core Viewpoint - The net profits of the five major oil companies in Europe and the U.S. are projected to decline significantly in the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to falling crude oil prices, raising concerns about further deterioration in future performance [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the combined net profit of the five major oil companies reached $20.531 billion, a 29% decrease compared to the same period last year [1]. - Individual company performances include: ExxonMobil with $7.71 billion (down 6%), Shell with $4.78 billion (down 35%), Chevron with $3.5 billion (down 36%), TotalEnergies with $3.85 billion (down 32.7%), and BP with $0.69 billion (down 69.6%) [1]. - The net profits of these five companies have declined for eight consecutive quarters [1]. Group 2: Oil Price Impact - The average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures in Q1 2025 was approximately $75 per barrel, down about 10% from $82 per barrel in the same period last year [1]. - The Brent crude oil futures price also fell by 10% compared to the previous year [1]. - The decline in oil prices is partly attributed to the policies of the Trump administration, which included calls for OPEC to lower prices and tariffs that increased global recession expectations [1][2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Market analysts predict that the performance of these oil companies may worsen in Q2 2025, with WTI futures dropping below $70 per barrel and currently trading at just over $60 per barrel [2]. - A study by the Dallas Federal Reserve indicates that developing new U.S. oil requires a WTI price of about $65 per barrel, suggesting that if prices fall below $60 per barrel, oil production may begin to decline due to unprofitability [2]. - Despite the Trump administration's encouragement for increased U.S. oil production, companies are still facing pressure on profit margins due to low oil prices and rising material costs [2].