免责声明: | | | | | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/05 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 华东液化 气 | 山东液化气 | 丙烷CFR华 南 | 丙烷CIF日 本 | MB丙烷现 货 | CP预测合 同价 | | 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基化油 | 纸面进口 利润 | 主力基差 | | 2025/08/2 9 | 4620 | 4481 | 4540 | 580 | 541 | 69 | 515 | 4990 | 7820 | -133 | 170 | | 2025/09/0 1 | 4580 | 4486 | 4540 | 583 | 545 | - | 531 | 4900 | 7770 | -201 | 188 | | 2025/09/0 2 | 4540 | 4486 | 4560 | 590 | 550 | 72 | 540 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The PG futures price fluctuated and strengthened, mainly due to the rebound of spot prices and the increase in import costs [1]. - The fundamentals show that port supply and demand both decreased, inventory remained basically flat, refinery product volume increased by 1.94%, and plant inventories decreased due to the recovery of demand in many places [1]. - The combustion off - season is gradually coming to an end as the temperature begins to drop. The supply of refineries in East China is expected to be limited, and the arrival of ships is expected to decrease. The demand is expected to improve, and the overall situation is expected to be stable [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price Data - From August 22 - 28, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, Shandong LPG, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and other products showed certain fluctuations. For example, South China LPG rose from 4490 on August 22 to 4620 on August 28 [1]. - The 09 - 10 month spread was - 600 (- 63), and the 10 - 11 month spread was 77 (- 16) on Thursday. Previously, the 9 - 10 month spread was - 509 (- 38), and the 10 - 11 month spread was 80 (+ 0) [1]. - The basis weakened to 520 (- 19), and the warehouse receipt registration volume was 12887 (- 1) [1]. Market Conditions - The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas. The supply of refineries in East China was limited, driving prices to be firm, and port prices rose steadily [1]. - FEI and CP fluctuated, PP prices fell, the production profit of FEI and CP for PP weakened, and the CP production cost was lower than that of FEI [1]. - The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window was closed [1]. - The outer - market prices strengthened slightly, the internal - external price difference fluctuated, and the FEI - CP increased to 17 (+ 5.25) [1]. - Freight rates such as US Gulf - Japan and Middle East - Far East decreased [1]. Industry Operation - The PDH operating rate was 75.66% (- 0.67pct), with no shutdown plan next week, but it is expected that the load of multiple units will increase [1]. - The alkylation operating rate was 51.42% (- 0.67pct), and the operating rate is expected to increase next week [1]. - The MTBE operating rate was 63.54% (+ 0.15pct) [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation. The supply has increased while the demand is weak, causing the spot price to decline. However, the PG futures market has rebounded due to the improvement in the international spot market and the relatively low valuation of the futures, which has improved market sentiment. The fundamentals show a decrease in port inventory and a slight increase in chemical demand, but the combustion demand remains weak, although it is gradually coming to an end [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs a) Daily Changes - On Wednesday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4390. FEI increased while CP decreased. PP increased, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP slightly strengthened, with CP having a lower production cost than FEI. The PG futures market strengthened, and the 09 - 10 spread was -464 (-15). The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1]. - The supply increased and demand was weak, causing the spot price to decline. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4410. The PG futures market rebounded due to the improvement in the international spot market and the relatively low valuation of the futures, which improved market sentiment. The basis strengthened to 539 (+67). The 9 - 10 spread was -471 (+9). The number of registered warehouse receipts was 12,888 lots (+2,709) [1]. b) Weekly Outlook - The international market was volatile, and freight rates were generally volatile at a high level. The waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal decreased. The discounts of FEI and CP strengthened significantly, and the spread between PG - CP reached 8.9 (+12); PG - FEI reached 20.7 (+12). The change in FEI - MOPJ was small, at 39.6 (-1.6), and the naphtha crack spread slightly strengthened [1]. - The spot profit of PDH - made PP weakened, and the paper profit fluctuated. The production margins of alkylated oil and MTBE decreased. Fundamentally, the port unloading volume decreased, chemical demand slightly increased, and port inventory decreased by 2.06%. The refinery product volume decreased by 1.68% mainly because some refineries increased self - use and Xintai's gas fractionation unit was under maintenance. However, due to weak combustion demand, refinery inventory increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49 pct), and the combustion demand was still weak but gradually coming to an end [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The PG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend due to increased domestic chemical demand in the short - term, weak domestic combustion demand, high port inventory pressure, and a weak international fundamental situation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog a. Price and Market Data - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices are oscillating downward, with the cheapest deliverable being South China civil gas at 4400 yuan/ton. The main contract has shifted to the 09 contract, and the basis has strengthened to 445 (+79) [1] - **Futures Market**: The PG futures market is running weakly. The spread between months has weakened, with the 09 - 10 spread at - 436 (-23) on Tuesday and - 439 (-18) later. The inter - month reverse spread continues to strengthen [1] - **International Market**: The international market fundamentals are loose, showing continuous weakness. The August CP official price has been lowered. Propane is at 520 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 55 US dollars/ton from the previous month; butane is at 490 US dollars/ton, also a decrease of 55 US dollars/ton from the previous month [1] b. Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: FEI and CP continue to decline, PP rises, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP has strengthened. The production cost of CP is lower than that of FEI. The spot profit of PDH - made PP oscillates, and the paper profit continues to improve; the profits of other downstream devices have all decreased [1] - **Arrival Cost**: The estimated arrival cost of propane is about 4327 yuan/ton, and that of butane is about 4090 yuan/ton [1] c. Market Structure and Indicators - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered quantity of warehouse receipts is 9759 lots (-45), with a decrease of 20 lots at Qingdao Yunda and 25 lots at Ningbo Baidinian [1] - **Regional Spreads**: PG - CP is at 30 (-13), FEI - MB is at 159 (+3), FEI - CP is at 5 (+0.5); the US - Asia arbitrage window is open; the CP propane arrival discount oscillates. FEI - MOPJ first expands and then shrinks, with the latest at - 53 (-5) [1] d. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: There is an increase in arrivals, port inventories are accumulating, factory inventories are slightly decreasing, and the commodity volume has slightly recovered [1] - **Demand**: Domestic chemical demand is expected to increase in the short - term, while domestic combustion demand remains weak. The PDH operating rate is 72.63% (-0.5 pct), with Liaoning Jinfa resuming production but Tianjin Bohua shutting down due to a fault. Tianjin Bohua and Jiangsu Ruiheng are expected to restart next week [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The LPG market is mainly in a state of shock, with the basis and monthly spreads slightly weakening. The import cost has increased, and the external market price has risen slightly. The supply and demand situation shows that the arrival volume has increased this week, chemical demand has decreased, and combustion demand is average. The port inventory has increased by 6.92%, and the factory inventory is basically flat with regional differentiation. It is expected that the prices in Shandong and East China may rise supported by chemical demand, while the focus in South China is expected to move down due to weak combustion demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From July 1 to July 6, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, etc. showed certain fluctuations. For example, the price of South China LPG was 4630 on July 1 and 4620 on July 6, with a daily change of 0. The prices of other products also had corresponding changes [1] Market Situation - On Wednesday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4486. FEI and CP continued to decline, and the CP discount dropped significantly. PP fluctuated, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP improved. The PG disk oscillated, and the monthly spread oscillated, with the latest 08 - 09 spread at 93. The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] Weekly Outlook - The overall disk is mainly in a state of shock. The basis has weakened slightly to 340 (-9), and the monthly spreads have also weakened slightly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4496. The import cost has increased, and the external market price has risen slightly. The supply and demand situation shows that the arrival volume has increased this week, chemical demand has decreased, and combustion demand is average. The port inventory has increased by 6.92%, and the factory inventory is basically flat with regional differentiation. It is expected that the prices in Shandong and East China may rise supported by chemical demand, while the focus in South China is expected to move down due to weak combustion demand [1] Demand Situation - The PDH operating rate has decreased to 60.87% (-3.12 pct), but it is expected to increase in the future. Next week, Xintai Petrochemical and Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase III are expected to resume operation, and some operating enterprises will gradually increase their loads. Many PDH plants are expected to restart at the end of July. The gasoline terminal demand is poor, and MTBE is weakly sorted. The combustion demand is weak [1] Inventory and Supply - The port inventory has increased by 6.92%, and the factory inventory is basically flat with regional differentiation. East China has accumulated inventory due to typhoon weather and weak combustion terminal demand, while South China has a weak supply - demand situation and the factory has reduced inventory. The external supply has decreased, and it is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks [1]