Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to remain weak overall. The cheapest delivery location is Shandong, where the supply is abundant due to arriving resources, while the chemical demand is declining [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data and Changes - From September 15 - 19, 2025, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong showed different trends. South China increased from 4540 to 4650 (+100), East China decreased from 4504 to 4415 (-92), and Shandong remained at 4530 with a previous increase of 30. The price of Shandong ether - post - carbon four decreased from 4790 to 4700 (-60). The lowest delivery location is East China [1]. - On a daily basis, the PG main contract fluctuated strongly. The basis weakened to 51 (-74), the 10 - 11 spread was 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 spread was 62 (+3). The number of warehouse receipts was 13002 (-6) [1]. - Ex - market prices rose. The FEI spread increased by 1, the MB spread remained unchanged, and the CP spread was -2.5. The internal - external price difference decreased slightly. PG - CP dropped to 75 (-3); PG - FEI dropped to 67.6 (-9.3). FEI - CP increased to 7.5 (+6.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed [1]. Market Conditions and Trends - Freight rates continued to rise. The latest freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 155 (+11), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 82 (+7). FEI - MOPJ was -41.5 (-6.5), and the naphtha crack spread strengthened [1]. - PDH - to - PP profits continued to weaken, and the production gross margins of alkylated oil and MTBE were low. The inflow to ports decreased, the outflow increased slightly, but demand narrowed, leading to an increase in both port and factory inventories [1]. - Chemical demand declined. The PDH operating rate was 70.49% (-2.61). Hebei Haiwei resumed operations, while Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Jinfafa were under maintenance and shut down, and Binhuaxin Material reduced its load. The operating rates of alkylation and MTBE both decreased [1].

免责声明: | | | | | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/05 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 华东液化 气 | 山东液化气 | 丙烷CFR华 南 | 丙烷CIF日 本 | MB丙烷现 货 | CP预测合 同价 | | 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基化油 | 纸面进口 利润 | 主力基差 | | 2025/08/2 9 | 4620 | 4481 | 4540 | 580 | 541 | 69 | 515 | 4990 | 7820 | -133 | 170 | | 2025/09/0 1 | 4580 | 4486 | 4540 | 583 | 545 | - | 531 | 4900 | 7770 | -201 | 188 | | 2025/09/0 2 | 4540 | 4486 | 4560 | 590 | 550 | 72 | 540 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The burning season is gradually ending, but demand remains weak. The cheapest delivery location is in East China, where supply is expected to be tight, demand to improve, and import costs to rise, leading to an overall stable and upward trend [1]. - The PG main contract fluctuates weakly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4481. The basis first weakens and then strengthens to 70 (+59). The September - October spread is -721 (-212), and the October - November spread is 87 (+7) [1]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content Price and Spread Changes - On September 3, 2025, the daily changes in prices were as follows: South China LPG -20, East China LPG 0, Shandong LPG +20, propane CFR South China +2, propane CIF Japan +7, MB propane spot 0, CP forecast contract price +2, Shandong alkylated oil +20, and paper import profit -38, with the main basis -15 [1]. - The September CP official price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. FEI, CP monthly spreads fluctuate, MB monthly spreads strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio changes little. The internal - external spread fluctuates, PG - CP reaches 106, PG - FEI reaches 85, FEI - CP reaches 21.5 (+4.5), and the US - Asia arbitrage window fluctuates and closes [1]. - FEI - MOPJ expands to -56 (-10), and the naphtha crack spread strengthens slightly [1]. Inventory and Production - Port inventories are being depleted, refinery commodity volume increases by 2.47%, and refinery inventories increase but are generally controllable [1]. - PDH operating rate is 73.02% (-2.64 pct), with Wanhua Phase II under maintenance and Quanzhou Guoheng restarting at the end of the week. Next week, Quanzhou Guoheng is expected to increase production, and Hebei Haiwei plans to shut down. Alkylation operating rate is 48.42% (+0.74), and MTBE operating rate is 63.54% (+0) [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of registered warehouse receipts is 13,207 lots (+320), with Qingdao Yunda -55, Wuzhongda -65, and Donghua +440 [1].

报告行业投资评级 - Not provided 报告的核心观点 - PG main contract fluctuates weakly, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens then strengthens to 70 (+59). The 9 - 10 spread is -721 (-212), and the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13207 lots (+320). The September CP official price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. The fundamentals show that port inventories are decreasing, refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and overall, the market is expected to rise steadily [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 日度变化 - The daily change shows that the price of South China LPG remains unchanged, East China LPG increases by 5, Shandong LPG remains unchanged, propane CFR South China increases by 6, propane CIF Japan increases by 5, MB propane spot decreases by 1, CP forecast contract price decreases by 1, Shandong ether - post - carbon four increases by 20, Shandong alkylated oil remains unchanged, paper import profit decreases by 47, and the main basis increases by 3. P - to - PP production profit weakens, CP production cost is lower than FEI. The PG futures fluctuates, and the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+10). The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed. The cheapest deliverable on Friday is East China civil LPG at 4481 [1] 周度观点 - The PG main contract fluctuates weakly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens then strengthens to 70 (+59). The 9 - 10 spread is -721 (-212), the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13207 lots (+320). The September CP official price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. FEI and CP spreads fluctuate, MB spreads strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio changes little. The domestic - foreign spread fluctuates. The PG - CP is 106, the PG - FEI is 85, and the FEI - CP is 21.5 (+4.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window fluctuates and is closed. The AFEI offshore discount is 5.5 (-0.5), and the CP South China CIF discount is 65 (+8). Freight rates are flat, the waiting time at the Panama Canal decreases, but the auction fee remains high. The FEI - MOPJ widens to -56 (-10), and the naphtha crack spread strengthens slightly. PDH spot profit changes little, and paper profit fluctuates downward. The production gross profit of alkylated oil declines. MTBE gross profit decreases. Fundamentally, port inventories are decreasing, refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and plant inventories increase but are generally controllable. PDH operating rate is 73.02% (-2.64pct), Wanhua Phase II is under maintenance, and Quanzhou Guoheng restarts at the end of the week. Next week, Quanzhou Guoheng is expected to increase production, and Hebei Haiwei plans to shut down. The alkylation operating rate is 48.42% (+0.74), and the MTBE operating rate is 63.54% (+0). Although the peak season is coming to an end, demand remains weak. East China is the cheapest delivery area, with expected tight supply, improved demand, and increased import costs, and the overall market rises steadily [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The PG futures price fluctuated and strengthened, mainly due to the rebound of spot prices and the increase in import costs [1]. - The fundamentals show that port supply and demand both decreased, inventory remained basically flat, refinery product volume increased by 1.94%, and plant inventories decreased due to the recovery of demand in many places [1]. - The combustion off - season is gradually coming to an end as the temperature begins to drop. The supply of refineries in East China is expected to be limited, and the arrival of ships is expected to decrease. The demand is expected to improve, and the overall situation is expected to be stable [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price Data - From August 22 - 28, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, Shandong LPG, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and other products showed certain fluctuations. For example, South China LPG rose from 4490 on August 22 to 4620 on August 28 [1]. - The 09 - 10 month spread was - 600 (- 63), and the 10 - 11 month spread was 77 (- 16) on Thursday. Previously, the 9 - 10 month spread was - 509 (- 38), and the 10 - 11 month spread was 80 (+ 0) [1]. - The basis weakened to 520 (- 19), and the warehouse receipt registration volume was 12887 (- 1) [1]. Market Conditions - The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas. The supply of refineries in East China was limited, driving prices to be firm, and port prices rose steadily [1]. - FEI and CP fluctuated, PP prices fell, the production profit of FEI and CP for PP weakened, and the CP production cost was lower than that of FEI [1]. - The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window was closed [1]. - The outer - market prices strengthened slightly, the internal - external price difference fluctuated, and the FEI - CP increased to 17 (+ 5.25) [1]. - Freight rates such as US Gulf - Japan and Middle East - Far East decreased [1]. Industry Operation - The PDH operating rate was 75.66% (- 0.67pct), with no shutdown plan next week, but it is expected that the load of multiple units will increase [1]. - The alkylation operating rate was 51.42% (- 0.67pct), and the operating rate is expected to increase next week [1]. - The MTBE operating rate was 63.54% (+ 0.15pct) [1].

Group 1: Price Data and Changes - The price data of LPG in different regions and related indicators from August 20 to August 26, 2025 are presented, including prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, etc. [1] - On August 26, compared with the previous day, the daily changes are as follows: South China LPG +25, East China LPG 0, Shandong LPG 0, propane CFR South China 0, propane CIF Japan -10, MB propane spot -1, CP forecast contract price 0, Shandong ether - post - carbon four +40, Shandong alkylation oil 0, paper import profit +25, and the main basis +12 [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Trends - The PG futures market fluctuated and strengthened. The spot price bottomed out and rebounded, and the import cost increased. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas. The basis weakened, and the month - spreads changed. The warehouse receipt registration volume decreased slightly [1] - The external market prices strengthened slightly. The internal - external price difference fluctuated. The FEI - CP spread widened, and the FEI offshore and CP to - shore discounts strengthened. The shipping freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and the Middle East to the Far East decreased [1] - The naphtha crack spread strengthened slightly. The profit of PDH to produce propylene increased, the spot profit of PDH to produce PP decreased, and the paper profit fluctuated. The production profit of alkylation oil increased slightly, and the MTBE profit changed little [1] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - From a fundamental perspective, port supply and demand both decreased, and inventory was basically flat. The refinery commercial volume increased by 1.94%, but due to the recovery of demand in many places, the refinery inventory decreased [1] - The PDH operating rate was 75.66% (-0.67pct), and it is expected that multiple units will increase their loads next week. The alkylation operating rate was 51.42% (-0.67pct) and is expected to increase. The MTBE operating rate was 63.54% (+0.15pct) [1] - As the temperature begins to drop, the off - season for combustion is gradually ending. In East China, the supply from refineries is expected to be limited, and the arrival of ships is expected to decrease. Although the demand is still affected by high temperature, there are expectations of improvement, and the overall situation is expected to be stable [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report's Core View - The PG futures market showed mixed trends. The PG futures prices fluctuated, with the intraday price slightly weakening, and the 09 - 10 spread at -509 (-16), 10 - 11 spread at 80. The US to Far - East arbitrage window was closed. The PG futures prices also showed an upward trend due to the rebound of spot prices and the increase in import costs. The basis weakened to 520 (-19) [1]. - From a weekly perspective, the external market prices strengthened slightly. The internal - external price difference fluctuated. The fundamentals showed that port supply and demand both decreased, and the inventory was basically flat. The refinery commodity volume increased by 1.94%, but the factory inventory decreased due to the recovery of demand in many places. The operating rates of PDH, alkylation, and MTBE had different changes, and the combustion off - season was gradually coming to an end [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Data - **Price Changes**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, etc. had different daily changes. For example, on August 22, South China LPG decreased by 30 compared to the previous day, while Shandong LPG increased by 10. The daily change in the paper import profit was -37, and the main basis was -2 [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The PG futures market was slightly weak during the day, with the 09 - 10 spread at -509 (-16), 10 - 11 spread at 80. The US to Far - East arbitrage window was closed. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4398. FEI increased, CP decreased, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP weakened slightly [1]. Weekly View - **Futures Market**: The PG futures prices fluctuated upward. The basis weakened to 520 (-19), 9 - 10 spread was -509 (-38), 10 - 11 spread was 80 (+0). The number of registered warrants was 12887 (-1). The external market prices strengthened slightly, and the internal - external price difference fluctuated [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Port supply and demand both decreased, and the inventory was basically flat. The refinery commodity volume increased by 1.94%, but the factory inventory decreased due to the recovery of demand in many places. The PDH operating rate was 75.66% (-0.67pct), the alkylation operating rate was 51.42% (-0.67pct), and the MTBE operating rate was 63.54% (+0.15pct). The combustion off - season was gradually coming to an end, and the East China market was expected to be generally stable [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation trend. The supply has increased while the demand is weak, causing the spot price center to shift downward. However, the PG futures market has rebounded due to the improvement in the international spot market and the relatively low valuation of the futures, which has improved market sentiment. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - From August 13 - 19, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, Shandong LPG, and MB propane spot showed an upward trend, while the prices of East China LPG and propane CFR South China fluctuated. The daily changes on August 19 were 40, -20, 40, 2, 0, 1, -2 respectively. The paper import profit increased by 26, and the main basis increased by 39. [1] Market Conditions - On Tuesday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4390. FEI and CP declined, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP weakened slightly. The cost of production using CP was lower than that using FEI. The PG futures market fluctuated, and the 09 - 10 spread was -449 (+19). The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed. [1] - The spot prices moved downward due to increased supply and weak demand, but the PG futures rebounded because of the improvement in the international spot market and low valuation. The basis strengthened to 539 (+67), and the 9 - 10 spread was -471 (+9). The number of registered warrants increased by 2709 to 12888 lots. [1] International Market - The international market fluctuated, with freight rates remaining high and volatile. The waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal decreased. The discounts of FEI and CP widened significantly. The PG - CP spread reached 8.9 (+12), and the PG - FEI spread reached 20.7 (+12). The FEI - MOPJ changed slightly, and the naphtha crack spread strengthened slightly. [1] Fundamental Data - The unloading volume decreased, chemical demand increased slightly, and port inventories decreased by 2.06%. Refinery product volumes decreased by 1.68% due to increased self - use in some refineries and the maintenance of Xintai's gas fractionation unit. However, due to weak combustion demand, refinery inventories increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49pct), and combustion demand was still weak but approaching the end. [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation trend. Although there are some improvements in the international spot market and the market sentiment has improved due to low valuation, the overall supply exceeds demand, and the weak combustion demand persists, despite being gradually approaching the end [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information 3.1. Price Data - **Daily Price Changes**: On August 18, 2025, compared with the previous day, the price of South China LPG increased by 50 to 4450, the price of Shandong LPG increased by 20 to 4440, the price of propane CFR South decreased by 2 to 561, the price of propane CIF Japan decreased by 7 to 520, and the CP forecast contract price decreased by 2 to 517. The price of Shandong ether - post - carbon four decreased by 40 to 4890, and the price of Shandong alkylated oil decreased by 30 to 7800. The paper import profit increased by 65 to - 188, and the main basis increased by 60 to 599 [1]. - **Weekly Price and Market Indicators**: The basis strengthened to 539 (+67), the 9 - 10 spread was - 471 (+9), the number of registered warehouse receipts was 12888 lots (+2709). PG - CP reached 8.9 (+12), PG - FEI reached 20.7 (+12), FEI - MOPJ was 39.6 (-1.6), and the naphtha crack spread strengthened slightly [1]. 3.2. Market Conditions - **Domestic Market**: The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4410. The PG futures market was volatile. The rebound was due to the improvement of the international spot market and low valuation. The domestic supply increased while demand was weak, the spot price center shifted downward, and the port inventory decreased by 2.06%, the refinery commodity volume decreased by 1.68%, and the refinery inventory increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49pct) [1]. - **International Market**: The international market was volatile, freight rates were generally high and volatile, and the waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal decreased. FEI and CP discounts strengthened significantly [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - The production profit of PP made from FEI and CP strengthened slightly, and the CP production cost was lower than that of FEI. The spot profit of PDH - made PP weakened, and the paper profit fluctuated. The production gross profit of alkylated oil and MTBE decreased [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation. The supply has increased while the demand is weak, causing the spot price to decline. The PG futures market has rebounded due to the improvement in the international spot market and low valuation. The basis has strengthened, and the monthly spread has fluctuated. The international market is volatile, and the freight rates are high. The PDH - PP production profit has weakened, and the production margins of alkylation oil and MTBE have declined. The port inventory has decreased, the chemical demand has slightly increased, and the refinery output has decreased. The combustion demand is still weak but approaching the end [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - On August 15, 2025, the propane CFR South China was 4400, the South China LPG was 4410, the East China LPG was 4410, the Shandong LPG was 4420, etc. The daily changes showed that the propane CFR South China increased by 35, the South China LPG increased by 9, etc. The cheapest deliverable was the East China civil LPG at 4410. The FEI and CP first rose and then fell. The PP fluctuated weakly, and the production profit of PP from FEI and CP slightly weakened. The PG futures fluctuated, and the 09 - 10 spread was - 471 (+9). The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] Weekly View - The spot price declined due to increased supply and weak demand, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4410. The PG futures rebounded because of the improved international spot market and low valuation. The basis strengthened to 539 (+67), and the 9 - 10 spread was - 471 (+9). The warehouse receipt registration volume was 12888 lots (+2709). The international market was volatile, and the freight rates were high. The FEI and CP discounts strengthened significantly. The port inventory decreased by 2.06%, the refinery output decreased by 1.68%, and the refinery inventory increased by 0.07%. The PDH - PP spot profit weakened, and the paper profit fluctuated. The production margins of alkylation oil and MTBE declined. The PDH plant operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49 pct), and the combustion demand was still weak but approaching the end [1]