免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 LPG早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/25 L P G 日期 华南液化气 华东液化气 山东液化气 丙烷CFR华南 丙烷CIF日 本 CP预测合 同价 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基 化油 纸面进口利润 主力基差 2026/02/10 4750 4475 4490 638 578 538 4450 7280 -305 324 2026/02/11 4750 4475 4430 635 581 538 4450 7250 -282 313 2026/02/12 4750 4467 4440 635 571 534 4460 7280 -274 296 2026/02/13 4750 4467 4470 621 551 529 4460 7280 -171 315 2026/02/24 4760 4424 4500 640 583 541 4380 7300 -289 -58 日度变化 10 -43 30 19 32 12 -80 20 -118 -373 日度行情 2月24日， ...

免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 LPG早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/24 L P G 日期 华南液化气 华东液化气 山东液化气 丙烷CFR华南 丙烷CIF日 本 CP预测合 同价 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基 化油 纸面进口利润 主力基差 2026/02/09 4765 4475 4470 636 576 534 4370 7280 -281 381 2026/02/10 4750 4475 4490 638 578 538 4450 7280 -305 324 2026/02/11 4750 4475 4430 635 581 538 4450 7250 -282 313 2026/02/12 4750 4467 4440 635 571 534 4460 7280 -274 296 2026/02/13 4750 4467 4470 621 551 529 4460 7280 -171 315 日度变化 0 0 30 -14 -20 -5 0 0 103 19 周度观点 节前一周盘面上行为主，月差 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views of the Report - The LPG futures market showed a volatile decline this week mainly due to the fall in oil prices and the weak basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil gas). The 3 - 4 month spread was -303 (-9), and the warehouse receipts increased by 1035 to 6902 lots. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil gas at 4150 (+30). The outer - market paper cargo month spread increased, and the oil - gas ratio oscillated. The internal and external market weakened, with PG - FEI c1 at 75.26 (-9.6), FEI - MB at 185.6 (+16.6), and FEI - CP at 10 (+13). Freight rates rose. The actual landed cost oscillated weakly. The FEI - MOPJ spread widened to -44.75 (-15.75). PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, ship arrivals decreased by 5.22% (mainly in East China), refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct, and external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The temperature was still low with fair rigid demand for combustion. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream restocking is coming to an end, and it is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, with factories focusing on inventory clearance. Overall, the internal basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil gas, the decline space of civil gas may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread is neutrally valued, and the situation of warehouse receipts needs to be monitored. The outer market is still tight in the short term, with high freight rates, and geopolitical and cold wave factors are still crucial and need continuous attention [1] Summary According to the Catalog Daily Data - From February 4 to February 10, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - post carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil changed. The daily changes on February 10 were -15, 0, 20, 2, 2, 4, 80, 0 respectively for these items. The paper import profit decreased by 24, and the main basis decreased by 57 [1] Daily Views - On Tuesday, the 3 - 4 month spread rebounded, with the 3 - 4 month spread at -297 (+50) and the 4 - 5 month spread at 91 (+1). Warehouse receipts changed with Shanghai Yuchi +5 and Haiyu Petrochemical -175. LPG spot prices stabilized with a slight downward adjustment expected. The cheapest deliverable was Shanghai Gaoqiao civil gas at 4150, with a basis of -122. Domestic spot prices were generally stable. The mainstream transaction price in East China was 4150 - 4800, and refineries shipped stably before the festival. Shandong civil gas prices continued to rise, with the mainstream price at 4400 - 4530. With the approaching Spring Festival, there was an expectation of a decline under increased supply. The mainstream price of ether - post carbon four rose, and the low - supply situation led to smooth sales [1] Weekly Views - The futures market oscillated down this week. The basis strengthened, the 3 - 4 month spread decreased, and warehouse receipts increased. The outer - market paper cargo month spread increased, and the oil - gas ratio oscillated. The internal and external market weakened. Freight rates rose, and the actual landed cost oscillated weakly. PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity, ship arrivals, and refinery storage capacity decreased, while external sales increased. Chemical demand increased, and the PDH operating rate rose. The temperature was still low with fair rigid demand for combustion. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream restocking is coming to an end, and it is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, with factories focusing on inventory clearance. The internal basis is still weak, the decline space of civil gas may be limited before the festival, the 3 - 4 month spread is neutrally valued, and the outer market is still tight in the short term [1]

Report Summary - **Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: This week, the LPG futures market oscillated downward mainly due to falling oil prices and a weakening basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil gas). The 3 - 4 month spread was -303 (-9), and the warehouse receipts were 6,902 lots (+1,035). The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil gas at 4,150 (+30). The overseas paper cargo monthly spread increased, and the oil - gas price ratio oscillated. The internal - external spread weakened. PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external supply increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The demand for combustion was still good due to the low temperature. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will mainly actively discharge inventory. Overall, the domestic basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil gas, the downward space for civil gas may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short term, with high freight rates, and geopolitical and cold wave factors remain crucial and need continuous attention [1] Data Summary Daily Data - **Date Range**: From February 3rd to February 9th, 2026 - **Price Changes**: The prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylated oil, paper import profit, and the main basis all had corresponding changes, with daily changes of -70, 0, 30, 1, -8, 5, 130, 50, -68, and 64 respectively [1] Daily View - **Spread and Warehouse Receipts**: On Monday, the 3 - 4 month spread dropped significantly to -347, and the 4 - 5 month spread was 90. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai Yuchi increased by 30 [1] - **Spot Market**: LPG spot prices stabilized. The cheapest deliverable was Shanghai civil gas at 4,150. In the East China market, civil gas prices were stable, and imported gas prices rose, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4,150 to 4,800 yuan/ton. In Shandong, civil gas prices rose slightly, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4,400 to 4,510 yuan/ton [1] Weekly View - **Market Trend**: The futures market oscillated downward this week, mainly affected by falling oil prices and a weakening basis of PG itself [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil gas), and the 3 - 4 month spread was -303 (-9) [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 6,902 lots (+1,035), with Wuchan Zhongda increasing by 1,000 [1] - **External Market**: The overseas paper cargo monthly spread increased, the oil - gas price ratio oscillated, and the internal - external spread weakened. The FEI - MOPJ spread widened to -44.75 (-15.75). Freight rates rose [1] - **Profit and Supply - Demand**: PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, arrivals decreased by 5.22% (mainly in East China); refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external supply increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with the PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The demand for combustion was still good due to the low temperature [1] - **Outlook**: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will mainly actively discharge inventory. The domestic basis is still weak; the downward space for civil gas may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short term, with high freight rates, and geopolitical and cold wave factors remain crucial and need continuous attention [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures market fluctuated and declined mainly due to the drop in oil prices and the weak basis of PG. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil LPG), and the March - April spread was -303 (-9). The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1035 to 6902 lots, with Wuchan Zhongda adding 1000 lots. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil LPG at 4150 (+30) [1]. - The overseas paper cargo monthly spread increased, and the oil - gas ratio fluctuated. The internal - external spread weakened, with PG - FEI c1 at 75.26 (-9.6). The FEI - MB spread was 185.6 (+16.6), and the FEI - CP spread was 10 (+13). Freight rates rose. The actual landed cost fluctuated weakly. The FEI - MOPJ spread widened to -44.75 (-15.75). PDH profit decreased [1]. - Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 percentage points, and ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 percentage points; external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 percentage points). Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics increased their loads, and the second - phase of Yantai Wanhua is expected to resume next week. Although the temperature warmed slightly this week but remained low, the rigid demand for combustion was acceptable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will actively discharge inventory [1]. - Overall, the domestic basis remains weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil LPG, the price of civil LPG may not have much room to fall during the pre - festival inventory discharge; the March - April spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. The overseas market remains tight in the short term, with high freight rates. Geopolitical factors and cold snaps are still key factors that need continuous attention [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Price Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after C4 | Shandong Alkylation Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/02/02 | 4870 | 4428 | 4480 | 616 | 540 | 526 | 4250 | 7150 | -40 | 373 | | 2026/02/03 | 4860 | 4428 | 4480 | 613 | 532 | 524 | 4240 | 7130 | -22 | 334 | | 2026/02/04 | 4845 | 4428 | 4470 | 624 | 560 | 535 | 4250 | 7200 | -125 | 277 | | 2026/02/05 | 4845 | 4446 | 4470 | 634 | 573 | 536 | 4250 | 7230 | -198 | 373 | | 2026/02/06 | 4835 | 4475 | 4440 | 635 | 569 | 532 | 4240 | 7230 | -213 | 317 | | Daily Change | -10 | 29 | -30 | 1 | -4 | -4 | -10 | 0 | -15 | -56 | Capacity and Demand Data - Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 percentage points, and ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 percentage points; external sales increased by 0.94% [1]. - Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 percentage points). Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics increased their loads, and the second - phase of Yantai Wanhua is expected to resume next week [1].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - This week, the LPG futures market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The current cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). The 2 - month CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI monthly spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB monthly spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external spread weakened significantly. The freight rate increased significantly due to North American cold snaps and the tense Iranian situation. The profit of China's PDH to produce propylene strengthened significantly. Fundamentally, geopolitical risks remain, and the rising external price supports the positive sentiment of domestic LPG futures, but domestic downstream profits are poor and pre - holiday inventory reduction weakens the support for spot prices. The current internal basis is weak, the monthly spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term, with attention needed on the February cold snap in the US and the Iranian situation [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog LPG Price Data - From January 26 - 30, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylation oil, paper import profit, and main basis all had corresponding changes. The daily changes were - 10, 5, 50, 5, - 5, - 1, 70, 50, - 51, and 63 respectively [1] Market Indicators - The 03 basis was 64 (- 32), the 03 - 04 monthly spread was - 294 (- 16), - 203 (- 8). Warehouse receipts were 5867 hands (- 31), with a reduction of 31 from Haiyu Petrochemical. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 29 (- 11) [1] Profit and Operating Rate - China's PDH profit to produce propylene was - 237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (- 1.53pct) [1] Price Premium and Discount - The East China propane arrival premium was 91 (+6); the AFEI, Middle East, and US propane FOB premiums were 19.25 (- 16.75), - 15 (- 35), 46.89 (- 15.6) respectively [1]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View This week, the domestic LPG market rose significantly influenced by geopolitical factors and the international market. The overall internal and external valuation is moderately high. Despite the decline in PDH operation rate, the fundamentals remain tight in the short term due to the cold wave in the US and the peak combustion season. However, as the cold wave ends and Middle - East supply resumes, combined with negative feedback from poor PDH profits and the maintenance season in March, the upward momentum will weaken. The domestic LPG spread valuation is neutral, and the fundamentals support bull spreads, but attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. [4] Summary by Relevant Content 1. Price and Spread Data - **Daily Price Changes**: From 2026/01/21 to 2026/01/27, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as related products like propane CFR South China, showed fluctuations. The daily change on 2026/01/27 included a 70 - yuan increase in South China LPG, a 2 - yuan increase in East China LPG, and a 10 - yuan decrease in Shandong LPG. [4] - **Spread Data**: The 03 - 04 spread was - 274 (- 6), and the 04 - 05 spread was 88 (- 5). As of 9 pm, FEI and CP paper prices reached $539.64 and $534.64 respectively. Weekly spreads also changed, with the 03 basis at 96 (- 83), 02 - 03 spread at 64 (- 16), and 03 - 04 spread at - 261 (- 32). [4] 2. Market Conditions and Factors - **Domestic Market**: The domestic market was significantly affected by geopolitical and international factors this week. Civil LPG prices were divergent, with Shandong at 4460 (+ 20), East China at 4372 (- 151), and South China at 4780 (- 255). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4350 (+ 10). Warehouse receipts were 5898 lots (- 79). [4] - **International Market**: FEI spreads rose, while MB and CP spreads slightly declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased slightly, FEI strengthened against CP and MB, and MB - CP also strengthened. The PG - FEI c1 spread was 55.1 (- 18.7). Propane arrival discounts in East China, and FOB discounts in AFEI, the Middle East, and the US also changed. Freight rates decreased, and the FEI - MOPJ spread was - 18 (weekly + 9). [4] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: PDH spot profits fluctuated, and paper profits dropped significantly. [4] - **Inventory**: Port inventory decreased by 1.53%, and incoming shipments decreased by 13.21%. Refinery storage utilization increased by 1.21 pct, and external sales increased by 2.11%. [4] 4. Industry Operation PDH operation rate was 62.25% (- 10.82 pct). Juzhengyuan Phase II was under maintenance, and Ruiheng had a breakdown and stopped production, expected to resume next week. [4]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic LPG market rose significantly due to geopolitical factors and the influence of the external market. Although the PDH operating rate has decreased, the fundamentals are still tight in the short term due to the cold wave in the United States and the peak combustion season. However, as the cold wave ends, Middle - East supply returns, and considering the negative feedback of poor PDH profits and the maintenance season in March, the driving force will weaken. The domestic market's month - spread valuation is neutral, and the fundamentals support bull spreads, but attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Daily Market Data - From January 20 to January 26, 2026, prices of LPG in South China, East China and Shandong, as well as related products like propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylation oil showed different changes. The paper import profit decreased from 148 to - 169, and the main contract basis decreased from 519 to 142. On January 26, compared with the previous day, the price of South China LPG decreased by 10, the price of East China LPG increased by 10, the price of Shandong LPG decreased by 40, and other indicators also had corresponding daily changes [1] 2. Daily Market Conditions - On Monday, under the influence of macro and geopolitical sentiments, the futures market showed a strong performance. The 03 - 04 month - spread was - 246 (+15), and the 04 - 05 month - spread was 91 (-13). As of 9 p.m., the FEI and CP paper - cargo prices reached 551 and 540 US dollars respectively [1] 3. Weekly Views a. Price and Basis Changes - The domestic market rose this week. The 03 basis was 96 (-83), the 02 - 03 month - spread was 64 (-16), and the 03 - 04 month - spread was - 261 (-32). Civil LPG prices were differentiated, with the price in Shandong being 4460 (+20), in East China 4372 (-151), and in South China 4780 (-255). The cheapest deliverable product was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4350 (+10). The number of warehouse receipts was 5898 (-79) [1] b. International Market Indicators - The FEI month - spread increased, while the MB and CP month - spreads decreased slightly. The oil - gas ratio declined slightly. FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB, and MB - CP also strengthened. The domestic - foreign PG - FEI c1 reached 55.1 (-18.7). The arrival - at - shore discount of propane in East China, China was 85 (+8); the FOB discounts of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 36 (-1.75), 20 (-9), and 62.52 US dollars (+11.72) respectively. Freight rates decreased. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 18 (week - on - week +9) [1] c. Profit and Inventory - PDH spot profits fluctuated, and paper - cargo profits dropped significantly. Port inventory decreased by 1.53%, and incoming shipments decreased by 13.21%, indicating a narrowing demand. The refinery storage capacity utilization rate increased by 1.21 pct, and external sales increased by 2.11%. The PDH operating rate was 62.25% (-10.82 pct), with Juzhengyuan Phase II under maintenance and Ruiheng out of operation due to a fault, expected to resume next week [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic LPG market rose significantly influenced by geopolitical factors and the international market. The 03 basis was 96 (-83), the 02 - 03 monthly spread was 64 (-16), and the 03 - 04 monthly spread was -261 (-32). The prices of civil LPG showed a divergence, with prices in Shandong at 4460 (+20), in East China at 4372 (-151), and in South China at 4780 (-255). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4350 (+10). The number of warehouse receipts was 5898 lots (-79). The FEI monthly spread increased, while the MB and CP monthly spreads slightly decreased. The oil - gas price ratio declined slightly. FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB, and MB - CP also strengthened. The internal and external PG - FEI c1 was 55.1 (-18.7). The CIF discount for propane in East China, China, was 85 (+8), and the FOB discounts for propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 36 (-1.75), 20 (-9), and 62.52 US dollars (+11.72) respectively. Freight rates dropped. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -18 (week - on - week +9). The spot profit of PDH fluctuated, while the paper profit dropped significantly. Port inventory decreased by 1.53%, vessel arrivals decreased by 13.21%, and demand contracted. The refinery storage capacity utilization rate increased by 1.21 pct, and external sales increased by 2.11%. The PDH operating rate was 62.25% (-10.82 pct), with Juzhengyuan Phase II under maintenance and Ruiheng out of operation due to a fault, expected to resume next week. Overall, the internal and external valuations are moderately high. Although the PDH operating rate has decreased, the fundamentals remain tight in the short term due to the cold wave in the United States and the peak combustion season. As the cold wave ends and Middle - East supply resumes, the negative feedback from poor PDH profits and the maintenance season in March will weaken the driving force. The internal monthly spread valuation is neutral, and the fundamentals support bull spreads, but attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price and Spread Data - **LPG Prices**: On January 23, 2026, the prices in South China, East China, and Shandong were 4780, 4372, and 4460 respectively, with daily changes of -35, -56, and -20 compared to the previous day [1] - **Propane Prices**: The CFR price of propane in South China was 614, and the CIF price in Japan was 584 on January 23, 2026 [1] - **CP Forecast Contract Price**: On January 23, 2026, it was 536, with a daily change of -4 [1] - **Other Product Prices**: The price of Shandong ether - after carbon four was 4350 (+10), and the price of Shandong alkylation oil was 7150 (unchanged) on January 23, 2026 [1] - **Paper Import Profit and Basis**: On January 23, 2026, the paper import profit was -127, and the main contract basis was 298, with daily changes of 45 and -96 respectively [1] - **Monthly Spreads**: The 03 basis was 96 (-83), the 02 - 03 monthly spread was 64 (-16), and the 03 - 04 monthly spread was -261 (-32) [1] 3.2 Market and Fundamental Indicators - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 5898 lots, a decrease of 79 [1] - **Price Relationships**: The FEI monthly spread increased, while the MB and CP monthly spreads slightly decreased. The oil - gas price ratio declined slightly. FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB, and MB - CP also strengthened. The internal and external PG - FEI c1 was 55.1 (-18.7) [1] - **Propane Discounts**: The CIF discount for propane in East China, China, was 85 (+8), and the FOB discounts for propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 36 (-1.75), 20 (-9), and 62.52 US dollars (+11.72) respectively [1] - **Freight Rates**: Freight rates dropped [1] - **FEI - MOPJ Spread**: The FEI - MOPJ spread was -18 (week - on - week +9) [1] - **PDH Profits**: The spot profit of PDH fluctuated, while the paper profit dropped significantly [1] - **Inventory and Arrivals**: Port inventory decreased by 1.53%, and vessel arrivals decreased by 13.21% [1] - **Refinery Indicators**: The refinery storage capacity utilization rate increased by 1.21 pct, and external sales increased by 2.11% [1] - **PDH Operating Rate**: The PDH operating rate was 62.25% (-10.82 pct), with Juzhengyuan Phase II under maintenance and Ruiheng out of operation due to a fault, expected to resume next week [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic market was greatly affected by geopolitical factors, rising first and then falling, with a slight upward shift in the weekly central value. The 02 basis was 138 (-41), the 02 - 03 spread was 70 (+15), and the 03 - 04 spread was -250 (-58). The price of civil gas increased, with Shandong at 4440 (+40), East China at 4523 (+56), and South China at 5035 (+195). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after 4340 (-50). The number of warehouse receipts was 5977 lots (-241). The FEI and CP spreads rose, the MB spread fell, the oil - gas ratio weakened, and FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB. The domestic and foreign PG - FEI reached 73.6 (-11.9), and PG - CP reached 69.6 (-8). The CIF discount for propane in East China, China was 77 (-2); the FOB discounts for propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 37.75 (+3.75), 29 (-1), and 50.8 US dollars (+9.12) respectively. Freight rates increased, with the US Gulf - Japan at 139 (+7). The FEI - MOPJ spread was -27 (weekly +12). PDH profits significantly recovered but were still poor. Port inventories decreased by 4.9%, arrivals increased by 2.7%, and overall shipments increased significantly. The refinery storage capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.66 pct, and external releases decreased by 0.19%. PDH operating rate was 73.07% (-2.54 pct), and there were expectations of multiple plant shutdowns in February (Juzhengyuan Phase II and Zhongjing Phase II), with the PDH operating rate expected to continue to decline. Overall, domestic and foreign valuations were high; the expected supply - demand pattern in the foreign market weakened, as the impact of the US fog was expected to be small, and although the Middle East was tight in the short term, it would be loose later; the combustion demand was coming to an end in February, and the PDH operating rate decreased. The domestic valuation was neutral, with 2 - 3 and 3 - 4 spreads in reverse arbitrage, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [1] 3. Summary According to the Directory Daily Data - From January 16 to January 22, 2026, the prices of South China LPG changed from 5035 to 4815, East China LPG from 4523 to 4428, Shandong LPG from 4440 to 4480, propane CFR South China from 597 to 610, propane CIF Japan from 549 to 595, CP forecast contract price from 527 to 537, Shandong ether - after C4 from 4340 to 4360, Shandong alkylate from 7150 to 7150, paper import profit from 254 to -65, and the main basis from 486 to 394. The daily changes on January 22 were -25, -39, 10, 6, 24, 6, 30, 20, -74, -104 respectively [1] Daily View - On Thursday, the 02 - 03 spread was 67 (+2), the 03 - 04 spread was -275 (-11), and the 02 - 04 spread was -208 (-9). At 9:30 PM on Thursday, the FEI and CP paper prices reached 551.19 and 534.19 US dollars respectively [1] Weekly View - This week, the domestic market was greatly affected by geopolitical factors, with the weekly central value slightly shifting upward. The 02 basis decreased by 41, the 02 - 03 spread increased by 15, and the 03 - 04 spread decreased by 58. Civil gas prices increased, and the cheapest deliverable decreased by 50. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 241. The FEI and CP spreads rose, the MB spread fell, the oil - gas ratio weakened, and FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB. The domestic - foreign spreads decreased, the CIF discount in East China decreased, the FOB discounts in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States changed, the freight rate increased, and the FEI - MOPJ spread increased week - on - week. PDH profits recovered but were still poor. Port inventories decreased by 4.9%, arrivals increased by 2.7%, and overall shipments increased significantly. The refinery storage capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.66 pct, and external releases decreased by 0.19%. The PDH operating rate decreased by 2.54 pct, and there were expectations of multiple plant shutdowns in February, with the PDH operating rate expected to continue to decline. Overall, domestic and foreign valuations were high, the expected supply - demand pattern in the foreign market weakened, the domestic valuation was neutral, with 2 - 3 and 3 - 4 spreads in reverse arbitrage, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [1]