Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Due to the escalating situation in the Middle East, attacks on gas fields in Iran and Qatar, and a compressor leak at Targe, the PG futures market has risen significantly. The current situation of domestic PG is a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations. The current basis is weak, and there is sufficient refinery gas in the short - term in China. The 4 - 5 month spread of the domestic market is in a delivery game and is expected to fluctuate greatly. In the future, it is likely that there will be a shortage of goods in the second half of April in China. If the Strait is blocked for a longer time, the international market will face a more serious shortage problem, and the civil gas demand gap will be difficult to make up, so the overseas market will remain strong [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data - From March 16 to March 20, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG showed different degrees of change. For example, South China LPG increased from 6215 to 6300, East China LPG from 6122 to 6189, and Shandong LPG from 5530 to 5990. The propane CFR South China price first rose and then fell, from 980 to 1093. The CP forecast contract price increased from 582 to 600. The price of Shandong alkylated oil remained at 9200, while the paper import profit changed from - 1420 to - 2207, and the main basis changed from - 154 to - 545 [1]. Market Indicators - The basis is - 1057 (- 736), and the 4 - 5 month spread is 64 (- 68). The number of warehouse receipts is 3100 lots (+8), with Wanhua increasing by 1300, Jingbo decreasing by 428, and Yunda decreasing by 880. The cheapest deliverable is Shandong ether - after carbon four at 5950 (+520). Shandong civil LPG is 5990 (+440), East China civil LPG is 6189 (+30), and South China civil LPG is 6300 (+150). The FEI month spread is 112 US dollars (+28), and the oil - gas price ratio has declined. The PG - FEI c1 is 35 (- 15.5). The South China CP propane landing discount is 501 (+108), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane are 50 (- 54.75), 273.5 (+72.9), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread is - 76 (+52) [1]. Profit and Inventory - The spot profit of domestic PDH to propylene has weakened slightly, and the paper profit of PDH to PP in East and South China has declined. The port inventory ratio is 35.84% (+0.79 pct), the enterprise storage capacity ratio is 26.05% (+1.11 pct), and the PDH operating rate is 65.63% (+2.4 pct) [1].

Report Overview - The report is an LPG morning report from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on March 19, 2026, providing daily and weekly market data and analysis of LPG [4] Daily Market Data - **Price Data**: On March 18, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG were 6220, 6049, and 5630 respectively; the CFR South China price of propane was 1023; the CP forecast contract price was 589; the price of Shandong ether - post carbon four was 5510; the price of Shandong alkylated oil was 8700; the paper import profit was -1737; the main basis was 64. The daily changes were 20, 5, 100, 45, 2, 90, 200, -324, 183 respectively [4] - **Contract Data**: On March 18, the PG2604 contract closed at 5766 (-61) at 3 pm, with a 4 - 5 month spread of 96 (-27) and 1800 (+0) warrants. The night - session closed at 6268 (+509), with a 4 - 5 month spread of 73 (-23). The price of Shandong civil LPG was 5600 (+80) [4] Weekly Viewpoint - **Market Trends**: Last week, the futures market fluctuated greatly with the center moving up, mainly following the oil price. The basis fluctuated sharply, and the latest was -321 (+346), the 4 - 5 month spread was 132 (+5). The number of warrants was 3108 lots (-1544). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - post carbon four at 5430 (+280). The price of Shandong civil LPG was 5550 (+610), and that of East China civil LPG was 6159 (+1178) [4] - **Related Spreads and Ratios**: The FEI month spread was 84 US dollars (+27), the oil - gas price ratio oscillated and declined. The internal and external PG - FEI c1 was 52.4 (-45). The South China CP propane arrival discount was 402 (+30), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane were 104.75 (+12.75), 200.6 (+41.7), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -126 (-59) [4] - **Profit and Inventory**: The PDH spot profit strengthened significantly. The port inventory ratio was 35.05% (-5.5 pct), the external release of LPG sample enterprises was 54.4 tons (-1.8), and the PDH operating rate was 63.23 (-1.7 pct) [4] - **Future Outlook**: The key lies in when the Strait of Hormuz will resume traffic. Short - term spot quotes mainly depend on the international oil price. There will probably be a shortage of goods in China in April, which is expected to be more serious in East and South China than in Shandong. The short - term futures market may still follow the oil price, and the month spread will run strongly [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints -节前 week, the futures price mainly went up, and the monthly spread fluctuated greatly due to capital behavior. The basis was -102 (-31), the 3 - 4 monthly spread was -164 (+139), and the 4 - 5 monthly spread was 81 (-10). The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil gas at 4150 (+0). During the holiday, the external market price increased following the oil price due to geopolitical tensions. PDH profit increased slightly but remained poor, and the short - term operating rate still had resilience. The domestic basis was still weak. After the holiday, downstream replenishment might occur, and chemical demand was also supported, so the spot price had room for rebound. The 04 contract was priced based on the external market, and its valuation was within a reasonable range, while the 4 - 5 monthly spread valuation was neutral. The external market was still tight in the short term, but there was an expectation of weakening in the second quarter, and geopolitics was a key factor that needed continuous attention [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Quotes - On February 24, PG2604 closed up at 4582 (+119) during the day session, with the 3 - 4 monthly spread at -285 (-129) and the 4 - 5 monthly spread at 79 (-18); it fell to 4535 (-47) during the night session, with the 3 - 4 monthly spread at -280 (+5) and the 4 - 5 monthly spread at 81 (+2). The absolute price of the external market increased slightly, with the FEI monthly spread at 26 (-2) and the CP monthly spread at 14 (+0) [1]. - The cheapest deliverable in the domestic spot market was Shanghai civil gas at 4150. In Shandong, the price of civil LPG was stable with a slight decline, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4450 to 4580 yuan/ton. Downstream had replenishment demand, but external resources were flowing in, so there was an expectation of short - term stabilization or decline. In the East China market, the price was generally stable, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4150 to 4700 yuan/ton. The market transportation capacity had not fully recovered, and refineries needed to digest inventory accumulated during the holiday, so they were not willing to adjust prices. It was expected that the East China market would run stably in the short term. In the South China market, the price was generally stable with minor adjustments, and some areas had a slight increase. The mainstream price of domestic LPG in South China was 4600 - 4800 yuan/ton, and that of imported LPG was 4700 - 5100 yuan/ton. The prices of major refineries in western Guangdong and Guangxi increased slightly, but in the Pearl River Delta, the post - holiday replenishment demand was lower than expected, the upstream supply was relatively abundant, and the downstream demand recovered slowly. The market supply - demand fundamentals were loose, so the price increase momentum was insufficient [1].

Group 1: Report Core View - The LPG market showed an upward trend on the pre - holiday week, and the monthly spread fluctuated significantly due to capital behavior. The basis was - 102 (- 31), the 3 - 4 monthly spread was - 164 (+ 139), and the 4 - 5 monthly spread was 81 (- 10). The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil gas at 4150 (+ 0). During the holiday, the overseas market price increased following the oil price due to geopolitical tensions [1] - The PDH profit increased slightly but remained poor, and the short - term operation still showed resilience. The domestic basis was still weak. After the holiday, downstream replenishment might occur, and chemical demand was also supported, so there was room for the spot price to rebound. The 04 contract was priced based on the overseas market, and its valuation was within a reasonable range, and the 4 - 5 monthly spread valuation was neutral [1] - The overseas market was still tight in the short term, but there was an expectation of weakening in the second quarter. Geopolitical factors were still crucial and needed continuous attention [1] Group 2: Data Summary Daily Price Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after C4 | Shandong Alkylation Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/02/09 | 4765 | 4475 | 4470 | 636 | 576 | 534 | 4370 | 7280 | - 281 | 381 | | 2026/02/10 | 4750 | 4475 | 4490 | 638 | 578 | 538 | 4450 | 7280 | - 305 | 324 | | 2026/02/11 | 4750 | 4475 | 4430 | 635 | 581 | 538 | 4450 | 7250 | - 282 | 313 | | 2026/02/12 | 4750 | 4467 | 4440 | 635 | 571 | 534 | 4460 | 7280 | - 274 | 296 | | 2026/02/13 | 4750 | 4467 | 4470 | 621 | 551 | 529 | 4460 | 7280 | - 171 | 315 | | Daily Change | 0 | 0 | 30 | - 14 | - 20 | - 5 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 19 | [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views of the Report - The LPG futures market showed a volatile decline this week mainly due to the fall in oil prices and the weak basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil gas). The 3 - 4 month spread was -303 (-9), and the warehouse receipts increased by 1035 to 6902 lots. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil gas at 4150 (+30). The outer - market paper cargo month spread increased, and the oil - gas ratio oscillated. The internal and external market weakened, with PG - FEI c1 at 75.26 (-9.6), FEI - MB at 185.6 (+16.6), and FEI - CP at 10 (+13). Freight rates rose. The actual landed cost oscillated weakly. The FEI - MOPJ spread widened to -44.75 (-15.75). PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, ship arrivals decreased by 5.22% (mainly in East China), refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct, and external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The temperature was still low with fair rigid demand for combustion. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream restocking is coming to an end, and it is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, with factories focusing on inventory clearance. Overall, the internal basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil gas, the decline space of civil gas may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread is neutrally valued, and the situation of warehouse receipts needs to be monitored. The outer market is still tight in the short term, with high freight rates, and geopolitical and cold wave factors are still crucial and need continuous attention [1] Summary According to the Catalog Daily Data - From February 4 to February 10, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - post carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil changed. The daily changes on February 10 were -15, 0, 20, 2, 2, 4, 80, 0 respectively for these items. The paper import profit decreased by 24, and the main basis decreased by 57 [1] Daily Views - On Tuesday, the 3 - 4 month spread rebounded, with the 3 - 4 month spread at -297 (+50) and the 4 - 5 month spread at 91 (+1). Warehouse receipts changed with Shanghai Yuchi +5 and Haiyu Petrochemical -175. LPG spot prices stabilized with a slight downward adjustment expected. The cheapest deliverable was Shanghai Gaoqiao civil gas at 4150, with a basis of -122. Domestic spot prices were generally stable. The mainstream transaction price in East China was 4150 - 4800, and refineries shipped stably before the festival. Shandong civil gas prices continued to rise, with the mainstream price at 4400 - 4530. With the approaching Spring Festival, there was an expectation of a decline under increased supply. The mainstream price of ether - post carbon four rose, and the low - supply situation led to smooth sales [1] Weekly Views - The futures market oscillated down this week. The basis strengthened, the 3 - 4 month spread decreased, and warehouse receipts increased. The outer - market paper cargo month spread increased, and the oil - gas ratio oscillated. The internal and external market weakened. Freight rates rose, and the actual landed cost oscillated weakly. PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity, ship arrivals, and refinery storage capacity decreased, while external sales increased. Chemical demand increased, and the PDH operating rate rose. The temperature was still low with fair rigid demand for combustion. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream restocking is coming to an end, and it is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, with factories focusing on inventory clearance. The internal basis is still weak, the decline space of civil gas may be limited before the festival, the 3 - 4 month spread is neutrally valued, and the outer market is still tight in the short term [1]

Report Summary - **Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: This week, the LPG futures market oscillated downward mainly due to falling oil prices and a weakening basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil gas). The 3 - 4 month spread was -303 (-9), and the warehouse receipts were 6,902 lots (+1,035). The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil gas at 4,150 (+30). The overseas paper cargo monthly spread increased, and the oil - gas price ratio oscillated. The internal - external spread weakened. PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external supply increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The demand for combustion was still good due to the low temperature. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will mainly actively discharge inventory. Overall, the domestic basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil gas, the downward space for civil gas may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short term, with high freight rates, and geopolitical and cold wave factors remain crucial and need continuous attention [1] Data Summary Daily Data - **Date Range**: From February 3rd to February 9th, 2026 - **Price Changes**: The prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylated oil, paper import profit, and the main basis all had corresponding changes, with daily changes of -70, 0, 30, 1, -8, 5, 130, 50, -68, and 64 respectively [1] Daily View - **Spread and Warehouse Receipts**: On Monday, the 3 - 4 month spread dropped significantly to -347, and the 4 - 5 month spread was 90. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai Yuchi increased by 30 [1] - **Spot Market**: LPG spot prices stabilized. The cheapest deliverable was Shanghai civil gas at 4,150. In the East China market, civil gas prices were stable, and imported gas prices rose, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4,150 to 4,800 yuan/ton. In Shandong, civil gas prices rose slightly, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4,400 to 4,510 yuan/ton [1] Weekly View - **Market Trend**: The futures market oscillated downward this week, mainly affected by falling oil prices and a weakening basis of PG itself [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil gas), and the 3 - 4 month spread was -303 (-9) [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 6,902 lots (+1,035), with Wuchan Zhongda increasing by 1,000 [1] - **External Market**: The overseas paper cargo monthly spread increased, the oil - gas price ratio oscillated, and the internal - external spread weakened. The FEI - MOPJ spread widened to -44.75 (-15.75). Freight rates rose [1] - **Profit and Supply - Demand**: PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, arrivals decreased by 5.22% (mainly in East China); refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external supply increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with the PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The demand for combustion was still good due to the low temperature [1] - **Outlook**: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will mainly actively discharge inventory. The domestic basis is still weak; the downward space for civil gas may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short term, with high freight rates, and geopolitical and cold wave factors remain crucial and need continuous attention [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures market fluctuated and declined mainly due to the drop in oil prices and the weak basis of PG. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil LPG), and the March - April spread was -303 (-9). The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1035 to 6902 lots, with Wuchan Zhongda adding 1000 lots. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil LPG at 4150 (+30) [1]. - The overseas paper cargo monthly spread increased, and the oil - gas ratio fluctuated. The internal - external spread weakened, with PG - FEI c1 at 75.26 (-9.6). The FEI - MB spread was 185.6 (+16.6), and the FEI - CP spread was 10 (+13). Freight rates rose. The actual landed cost fluctuated weakly. The FEI - MOPJ spread widened to -44.75 (-15.75). PDH profit decreased [1]. - Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 percentage points, and ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 percentage points; external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 percentage points). Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics increased their loads, and the second - phase of Yantai Wanhua is expected to resume next week. Although the temperature warmed slightly this week but remained low, the rigid demand for combustion was acceptable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will actively discharge inventory [1]. - Overall, the domestic basis remains weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil LPG, the price of civil LPG may not have much room to fall during the pre - festival inventory discharge; the March - April spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. The overseas market remains tight in the short term, with high freight rates. Geopolitical factors and cold snaps are still key factors that need continuous attention [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Price Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after C4 | Shandong Alkylation Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/02/02 | 4870 | 4428 | 4480 | 616 | 540 | 526 | 4250 | 7150 | -40 | 373 | | 2026/02/03 | 4860 | 4428 | 4480 | 613 | 532 | 524 | 4240 | 7130 | -22 | 334 | | 2026/02/04 | 4845 | 4428 | 4470 | 624 | 560 | 535 | 4250 | 7200 | -125 | 277 | | 2026/02/05 | 4845 | 4446 | 4470 | 634 | 573 | 536 | 4250 | 7230 | -198 | 373 | | 2026/02/06 | 4835 | 4475 | 4440 | 635 | 569 | 532 | 4240 | 7230 | -213 | 317 | | Daily Change | -10 | 29 | -30 | 1 | -4 | -4 | -10 | 0 | -15 | -56 | Capacity and Demand Data - Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 percentage points, and ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 percentage points; external sales increased by 0.94% [1]. - Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 percentage points). Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics increased their loads, and the second - phase of Yantai Wanhua is expected to resume next week [1].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - This week, the LPG futures market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The current cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). The 2 - month CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI monthly spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB monthly spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external spread weakened significantly. The freight rate increased significantly due to North American cold snaps and the tense Iranian situation. The profit of China's PDH to produce propylene strengthened significantly. Fundamentally, geopolitical risks remain, and the rising external price supports the positive sentiment of domestic LPG futures, but domestic downstream profits are poor and pre - holiday inventory reduction weakens the support for spot prices. The current internal basis is weak, the monthly spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term, with attention needed on the February cold snap in the US and the Iranian situation [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog LPG Price Data - From January 26 - 30, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylation oil, paper import profit, and main basis all had corresponding changes. The daily changes were - 10, 5, 50, 5, - 5, - 1, 70, 50, - 51, and 63 respectively [1] Market Indicators - The 03 basis was 64 (- 32), the 03 - 04 monthly spread was - 294 (- 16), - 203 (- 8). Warehouse receipts were 5867 hands (- 31), with a reduction of 31 from Haiyu Petrochemical. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 29 (- 11) [1] Profit and Operating Rate - China's PDH profit to produce propylene was - 237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (- 1.53pct) [1] Price Premium and Discount - The East China propane arrival premium was 91 (+6); the AFEI, Middle East, and US propane FOB premiums were 19.25 (- 16.75), - 15 (- 35), 46.89 (- 15.6) respectively [1]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View This week, the domestic LPG market rose significantly influenced by geopolitical factors and the international market. The overall internal and external valuation is moderately high. Despite the decline in PDH operation rate, the fundamentals remain tight in the short term due to the cold wave in the US and the peak combustion season. However, as the cold wave ends and Middle - East supply resumes, combined with negative feedback from poor PDH profits and the maintenance season in March, the upward momentum will weaken. The domestic LPG spread valuation is neutral, and the fundamentals support bull spreads, but attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. [4] Summary by Relevant Content 1. Price and Spread Data - **Daily Price Changes**: From 2026/01/21 to 2026/01/27, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as related products like propane CFR South China, showed fluctuations. The daily change on 2026/01/27 included a 70 - yuan increase in South China LPG, a 2 - yuan increase in East China LPG, and a 10 - yuan decrease in Shandong LPG. [4] - **Spread Data**: The 03 - 04 spread was - 274 (- 6), and the 04 - 05 spread was 88 (- 5). As of 9 pm, FEI and CP paper prices reached $539.64 and $534.64 respectively. Weekly spreads also changed, with the 03 basis at 96 (- 83), 02 - 03 spread at 64 (- 16), and 03 - 04 spread at - 261 (- 32). [4] 2. Market Conditions and Factors - **Domestic Market**: The domestic market was significantly affected by geopolitical and international factors this week. Civil LPG prices were divergent, with Shandong at 4460 (+ 20), East China at 4372 (- 151), and South China at 4780 (- 255). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4350 (+ 10). Warehouse receipts were 5898 lots (- 79). [4] - **International Market**: FEI spreads rose, while MB and CP spreads slightly declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased slightly, FEI strengthened against CP and MB, and MB - CP also strengthened. The PG - FEI c1 spread was 55.1 (- 18.7). Propane arrival discounts in East China, and FOB discounts in AFEI, the Middle East, and the US also changed. Freight rates decreased, and the FEI - MOPJ spread was - 18 (weekly + 9). [4] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: PDH spot profits fluctuated, and paper profits dropped significantly. [4] - **Inventory**: Port inventory decreased by 1.53%, and incoming shipments decreased by 13.21%. Refinery storage utilization increased by 1.21 pct, and external sales increased by 2.11%. [4] 4. Industry Operation PDH operation rate was 62.25% (- 10.82 pct). Juzhengyuan Phase II was under maintenance, and Ruiheng had a breakdown and stopped production, expected to resume next week. [4]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic LPG market rose significantly due to geopolitical factors and the influence of the external market. Although the PDH operating rate has decreased, the fundamentals are still tight in the short term due to the cold wave in the United States and the peak combustion season. However, as the cold wave ends, Middle - East supply returns, and considering the negative feedback of poor PDH profits and the maintenance season in March, the driving force will weaken. The domestic market's month - spread valuation is neutral, and the fundamentals support bull spreads, but attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Daily Market Data - From January 20 to January 26, 2026, prices of LPG in South China, East China and Shandong, as well as related products like propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylation oil showed different changes. The paper import profit decreased from 148 to - 169, and the main contract basis decreased from 519 to 142. On January 26, compared with the previous day, the price of South China LPG decreased by 10, the price of East China LPG increased by 10, the price of Shandong LPG decreased by 40, and other indicators also had corresponding daily changes [1] 2. Daily Market Conditions - On Monday, under the influence of macro and geopolitical sentiments, the futures market showed a strong performance. The 03 - 04 month - spread was - 246 (+15), and the 04 - 05 month - spread was 91 (-13). As of 9 p.m., the FEI and CP paper - cargo prices reached 551 and 540 US dollars respectively [1] 3. Weekly Views a. Price and Basis Changes - The domestic market rose this week. The 03 basis was 96 (-83), the 02 - 03 month - spread was 64 (-16), and the 03 - 04 month - spread was - 261 (-32). Civil LPG prices were differentiated, with the price in Shandong being 4460 (+20), in East China 4372 (-151), and in South China 4780 (-255). The cheapest deliverable product was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4350 (+10). The number of warehouse receipts was 5898 (-79) [1] b. International Market Indicators - The FEI month - spread increased, while the MB and CP month - spreads decreased slightly. The oil - gas ratio declined slightly. FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB, and MB - CP also strengthened. The domestic - foreign PG - FEI c1 reached 55.1 (-18.7). The arrival - at - shore discount of propane in East China, China was 85 (+8); the FOB discounts of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 36 (-1.75), 20 (-9), and 62.52 US dollars (+11.72) respectively. Freight rates decreased. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 18 (week - on - week +9) [1] c. Profit and Inventory - PDH spot profits fluctuated, and paper - cargo profits dropped significantly. Port inventory decreased by 1.53%, and incoming shipments decreased by 13.21%, indicating a narrowing demand. The refinery storage capacity utilization rate increased by 1.21 pct, and external sales increased by 2.11%. The PDH operating rate was 62.25% (-10.82 pct), with Juzhengyuan Phase II under maintenance and Ruiheng out of operation due to a fault, expected to resume next week [1]