Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home (600690) with a target price of 34.5 CNY, indicating an expectation of over 20% outperformance against the benchmark index in the next six months [2][7]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching 79.12 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.49 billion CNY, up 15.1% year-on-year [7]. - The report highlights strong growth in both domestic and overseas markets, with domestic revenue growing by 7.8% and overseas revenue by 12.6% [7]. - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable domestic demand environment and ongoing digital transformation initiatives, which are anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected total revenue for 2024 is 285.98 billion CNY, increasing to 309.93 billion CNY in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.4% [3][8]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: Expected net profit attributable to shareholders is 18.74 billion CNY for 2024, rising to 21.17 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 12.9% [3][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to be 2.00 CNY in 2024, increasing to 2.26 CNY in 2025, and further to 2.53 CNY in 2026 [3][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The report notes that Haier's traditional stronghold in the refrigerator and washing machine segments is expected to maintain stable growth, outperforming the industry average [7]. - The company is also focusing on high-growth segments such as air conditioning, which is projected to achieve double-digit growth due to government subsidies [7]. - The introduction of an employee stock ownership plan aims to align the interests of management and key employees with those of shareholders, enhancing long-term value creation [7].

Core Viewpoint - The new trade-in policy, supported by a 300 billion subsidy, is reshaping three major industries: home appliances, automobiles, and consumer electronics, presenting investment opportunities for medium to long-term investors [1] Group 1: Home Appliances - The home appliance sector receives the largest subsidy, with up to 20% off for 12 product categories, capped at 2000 yuan per item. Sales surged by 23% year-on-year in the first four months of this year, with leading companies like Midea and Gree operating at full capacity [3] - High-end smart products, such as the Casarte series, have seen sales double post-subsidy, indicating a long-term trend of consumption upgrading [3] Group 2: Automotive Sector - The new energy vehicle segment is the biggest beneficiary, with a 20,000 yuan trade-in subsidy boosting sales. BYD's Han series orders exceeded 80,000 units in April [3] - The battery supply chain, including companies like CATL and Purtai, is also benefiting from this trend. The automotive aftermarket is highlighted as a promising area, with Tianqi's dismantling equipment orders extending to Q4 and Gree's battery recycling business achieving a gross margin of 28% [3] Group 3: Consumer Electronics - Although the subsidies in consumer electronics are smaller, they cover a wide range of products, including mobile phones and tablets. The Honor 90 series has over 40% of its sales through trade-in channels, and the inventory turnover days for core distributor Aishide have decreased to 15 days [3] - VR device manufacturer GoerTek has secured new orders from Meta, with expectations for Q3 performance to exceed forecasts [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investment should focus on three dimensions: core leaders, supporting supply chains, and regional leaders. Recommended stocks include Midea Group and Haier Smart Home in home appliances, BYD and Top Group in new energy vehicles, and Luxshare Precision and Shenzhen South Circuit in consumer electronics [4] - Key timelines for investment include the release of home appliance energy-saving subsidy details in June, the launch of new energy vehicles in August, and the consumer electronics exhibition in November. Early positioning can capture policy-driven benefits [4] Group 5: Market Trends - The policy is expected to accelerate the concentration of the three industries. The market share of the top five companies in the home appliance sector has increased from 68% in 2019 to 79% currently, while the top ten automotive companies now hold over 92% market share [4] - The focus should be on companies with stable cash flow and a dividend yield exceeding 3% to seize structural opportunities [4]