事件 公司发布25 年中报，25H1 实现营收94.76 亿元，同比增长5.74%，实现归母净利润6.38 亿元，同比增长 14.15%；其中Q2 单季度，实现收入48.76 亿元，同比增长2.36%，实现归母净利润3.37 亿元，同比增长 0.78%。 点评 25H1 中国冰箱冰柜出口行业受关税扰动影响（援引公司半年报三方数据口径）对美出口量下滑27%， 致整体出口量增速有所放缓为4.8%。但公司海外业务保持增长态势，收入规模达72.47 亿元，同比增长 8.99%，其中自有品牌收入增长66%，表现均优于行业平均。公司境外业务整体毛利率达24.21%，同 比-0.06pct，毛利率保持稳定。 TCL 智家持续推进自身治理优化，聚焦白电经营，坚定全球化战略。我们预计公司25-27 年EPS 分别为 1.05/1.15/1.26 元每股（25-26 年原预测为0.92/1.05 元/股），给予公司13xPE 估值（原为16x），对应目 标价为13.65 元（+7%），维持"优于大市"评级。 风险 终端需求不及预期，原材料及汇率波动。 分产品看，公司冰箱冷柜实现收入80.47 亿元，同比增长5.7%，毛利率达25 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TCL Smart Home (002668) with a target price based on the last closing price of 10.68 [1][6]. Core Insights - TCL Smart Home reported a stable operation in Q2 2025, with significant overseas brand performance, achieving a revenue of 94.76 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.47%, and a net profit of 6.38 billion yuan, up 14.15% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, TCL Smart Home's revenue was 94.76 billion yuan (+5.47%), with a net profit of 6.38 billion yuan (+14.15%) and a non-recurring net profit of 6.23 billion yuan (+11.51%). In Q2 2025, revenue was 48.77 billion yuan (+2.36%), net profit was 3.37 billion yuan (+0.78%), and non-recurring net profit was 3.29 billion yuan (-1.76%) [3][4]. Product and Market Performance - The overseas self-owned brand revenue increased by 66% year-on-year in H1 2025. Revenue from refrigerators and washing machines was 80.47 billion yuan and 13.61 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 5.71% and 5.98%. The external sales growth outperformed the industry average [4][5]. Profitability and Cost Management - In Q2 2025, the gross margin was 24.20% (-1.15 percentage points), influenced by intensified industry competition and exchange rate fluctuations. However, product structure optimization contributed positively to the gross margin [5][6]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the refrigeration sector, with ongoing capacity expansion and plans for new production bases. The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 11.58 billion yuan, 12.85 billion yuan, and 13.79 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.07, 1.19, and 1.27 yuan [6][7].

文 ｜ 朱昱锟 王文聪 霍商贤 王伟达 美方加征关税，家电企业通过产能出海积极应对。近期，美国对华再加关税，引发资本市场关注，我们认为，主要家电企业已采取相应措施进行 应对：短期来说，出口型公司已提前进行海外备货，降低业绩影响；中长期维度，主要企业已积极布局东南亚、墨西哥产能，减少关税影响。需 要留意的是，中东、拉美等新兴市场也在起量，有助于降低美国订单波动对国内企业的影响。 ▍ 美国对华加征关税，对美弊大于利。 2 0 2 5年特朗普执政以来，3个月内对贸易伙伴持续加征关税，征收对象范围不断扩大、征收力度增强。目前美方对中国整体关税达到1 3 5%，其 中空调/冰箱税率在1 5 0%附近，中国企业在东南亚的生产基地也受关税波及。从全球家电产能分布（图1）、美国对中国家电依赖度来看，美国 对中国家电企业征收高额关税，弊大于利。根据美国作者萨拉·邦焦尔尼所写的《离开中国制造的一年》，美国民众若完全脱离中国制造的商 品，则生活成本与购物难度皆会增加。 | | 公布时间 | 生效时间 | 征收对象 | 加税幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | . 中国商品加征 ...