如何看待后续地产政策与产业链的投资机会？20251120 摘要 房价下行周期分为小型、中型和大型泡沫，分别对应不同的跌幅和持续 时间。租售比和房价收入比等估值指标对判断房价拐点有参考意义，但 通常滞后于房价实际拐点。 核心城市房价承压主要源于收入或通胀预期不乐观以及租售比和利率倒 挂。通过贴息或抵税等方式降低购房成本，全局性、普遍性的补助能更 有效地提振市场信心和需求。 贷款贴息政策对房地产市场影响显著，覆盖范围和持续时间是关键。若 仅覆盖新房，财政代价较小，但若包括存量贷款或二手房，财政负担将 大幅增加。 收入预期比利率本身更重要。改善收入预期和优化分配是提高购房吸引 力的关键，实际房贷利率的降低可以通过解决租售比倒挂问题来提高购 房吸引力。 房地产行业面临成交量走弱、新旧库存压力和收入预期低迷等多重挑战。 优质龙头公司通过提升市占率和优化格局，展现出较强的抗风险能力， 业绩增长潜力较大。 Q&A 进入三季度以来，地产行业的基本面景气度出现了加速下滑，市场对政策博弈 的预期升温。未来哪些政策仍然值得期待？这些政策的有效性如何？ 在我们对全球 1970 年以来 58 个经济体所形成的 195 个房价周期进行复 ...

当前时点地产近况更新和产业链投资机会梳理 20251120 摘要 房地产市场持续承压，1-10 月全国房产累计销量和金额分别同比下降 7%和 10%，投资和施工端压力加剧，新开工面积和拿地面积较峰值时 下跌约 70%，房价下跌 35%以上，市场处于加速寻底状态。 核心城市房价快速下跌或难持续，一线城市房价调整对居民资产端冲击 显著，目前更可能是情绪化的快速出清阶段，以上海为例，2026 年初 五年限售解禁期或带来一定下跌，但总体上距离周期底部已经不远。 政策层面，核心城市房价走弱或促使未来政策力度加大，全国层面新增 个人住房贷款贴息政策或在评估中，提高个人住房贷款利息所得税专项 扣除、进一步下调住房交易契税等政策也在酝酿中。 建材行业需关注顶层持续关注并琢磨支持政策，优秀上市公司将先于行 业见底，随着地产救市措施逐步落实，有望带动整体市场回暖，三棵树 等企业虽优于行业平均水平，但整体市场环境仍充满挑战。 大类资产配置应关注低位有边际变化或赔率较高的板块，如地产链，同 时需谨慎考虑结构性流动性担忧问题，海螺水泥因国内地产及供需关系 处于低位，有较好的配置价值，重视反内卷政策可能带来的供给侧改革 机会。 Q&A ...

一线城市二手房价格下跌幅度超全国平均水平，对市场信心造成负面影 响。尽管上半年房地产市场总体稳定，但三季度以来价格加速下行，70 城二手房价格环比下降加剧市场担忧。 行政性放松政策未能扭转颓势，降低房贷利率是主要期待。2025 年 LPR 仅小幅下降，银行净息差压力限制让利空间，财政贴息或能减轻居 民购房负担，但成本取决于贴息力度和年限。 若实施按揭贷款利率贴息，预计每年成本 500-600 亿元，基于 15 万亿 销售额和 60%首付比例，新增按揭贷款规模约 6 万亿元，扣除公积金贷 款后商业银行贷款 5 万亿元，100 个基点贴息。 对房地产股市持乐观态度，政策推进将提升市场容忍度，增加新旧住房 交易流动性，改善上市公司业绩。关注香港地产、商业地产及具备困境 反转潜力的公司，这些公司负债压力小、现金流充裕且估值便宜。 贝壳找房受一线城市价格下行影响，但经纪业务弹性较早显现。2026 年利润率提升主要因素包括经纪业务人效提升、AI 技术应用（预计每年 带来 2-3 个百分点经营利润率增长）以及家装和租赁业务利润释放。 地产链：扭转预期，需要踏出那一步 20251120 摘要 Q&A 近期房地产市场的整体表现 ...

Core Insights - Haier Smart Home's stock price increased by 2.04% on November 20, reaching 27.06 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 253.835 billion CNY [1] - The company reported a year-to-date stock price decline of 0.69%, with a 1.02% drop over the last five trading days, but a 6.14% increase over the last 20 days and an 8.09% increase over the last 60 days [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, Haier Smart Home achieved a revenue of 234.054 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.31%, and a net profit of 17.373 billion CNY, up 14.64% year-on-year [2] Financial Performance - The company has cumulatively distributed 48.662 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 24.273 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 8.15% to 190,600, with an average of 0 circulating shares per shareholder [2][3] Shareholder Structure - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 361 million shares (a decrease of 8.909 million shares), and China Securities Finance Corporation, holding 183 million shares (unchanged) [3] - Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF have seen changes in their holdings, with the former holding 71.679 million shares (a decrease of 1.9576 million shares) and the latter exiting the top ten list [3] Business Overview - Haier Smart Home, established on March 31, 1994, specializes in the research, production, and sales of smart home appliances, including refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, and kitchen appliances [1] - The company's revenue composition includes refrigerators (27.17%), air conditioners (20.94%), washing machines (20.22%), kitchen appliances (13.10%), and other segments [1]

Core Viewpoint - Haier Smart Home's stock price has shown a modest increase this year, with significant gains over recent trading periods, indicating positive market sentiment and investor interest [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 12, Haier Smart Home's stock rose by 2.01%, reaching 27.42 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 5.76 billion CNY and a market capitalization of 257.12 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 0.63%, with a 3.73% rise over the last five trading days, 9.05% over the last 20 days, and 8.53% over the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Haier Smart Home reported a revenue of 234.05 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 17.37 billion CNY, up 14.64% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 48.66 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 24.27 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Haier Smart Home was 190,600, a decrease of 8.15% from the previous period [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 361 million shares, which decreased by 89.04 million shares compared to the previous period [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home (600690) with a target price of 32.40 CNY over the next six months, while the current price is 26.60 CNY [1]. Core Views - Haier is focusing on brand premiumization in the domestic market, with its high-end brand Casarte capturing significant market shares in the premium segment of refrigerators, air conditioners, and washing machines [8]. - The company is expanding internationally through continuous acquisitions and brand incubation, establishing a multi-brand ecosystem that effectively mitigates tariff risks [8]. - Profitability pressures that arose from frequent brand acquisitions since 2015 are gradually easing, allowing for improved profit margins [8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Haier Smart Home, established in 1984, has evolved into a leading global home appliance brand, achieving a revenue CAGR of 20.9% from 1993 to 2024, with a projected revenue of 285.98 billion CNY in 2024 [20][22]. Domestic Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its brand positioning through high-end product offerings, with Casarte achieving a revenue growth rate consistently above the overall company growth from 2017 to 2024 [53]. In 2024, Casarte holds market shares of 49%, 34%, and 88% in the premium segments of refrigerators, air conditioners, and washing machines, respectively [53]. International Expansion - Haier's international strategy includes acquiring local brands to drive overseas growth, with significant acquisitions such as GE Appliances and Candy, which have substantially increased revenue [28][30]. The company has established a global presence with over 50% of its revenue coming from international markets [30]. Profitability and Financial Projections - The report forecasts Haier's revenue to reach 308.22 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 7.8%, and net profit to be 21.89 billion CNY, reflecting a 16.8% increase [11]. The expected EPS for 2025 is 2.33 CNY, with a PE ratio of 11 [11]. Competitive Advantages - Haier's competitive edge lies in its strong brand portfolio and global manufacturing capabilities, which have allowed it to maintain a leading position in the global home appliance market, with a market share of approximately 17.4% as of 2024 [35]. The company's focus on high-end product development and innovation continues to drive its market leadership [56].

Group 1 - The overall performance of upstream resource products remains low, with internal structural differentiation continuing. The coal industry maintains stable conditions, with a slight month-on-month increase in thermal coal prices. The oil and petrochemical sector continues to show weakness, with a widening year-on-year decline in gasoline and natural gas prices. Basic chemicals are under pressure, with prices of PVC and methanol continuing to decline. Non-ferrous metals remain relatively stable, with slight increases in copper and aluminum prices. Demand for construction materials is weak, with cement and glass prices still in negative territory year-on-year [3][4][5] - In the midstream manufacturing sector, the new energy chain performs well, with improvements in power equipment and a rebound in prices of polysilicon and components. The machinery equipment industry continues its recovery, with marginal improvements in demand for transportation and engineering equipment. The automotive sector shows short-term recovery but remains weak overall, with operating rates and sales improving month-on-month but still below last year's levels. The textile and apparel sector shows significant differentiation, with stable raw material prices but slow recovery in downstream orders [3][4][5] - The downstream consumer sector continues to show a differentiated pattern, with the home appliance sector remaining robust, and sales of small household appliances and kitchen appliances performing well. The food and beverage sector shows a month-on-month rebound, with overall mild increases in agricultural product prices. The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experiences increased differentiation, with prices of traditional Chinese medicinal materials continuing to decline. The social services sector continues to recover, with hotel and tourism-related indicators improving month-on-month and increased consumer activity [3][4][5] Group 2 - Supportive services and finance show a continued recovery trend, with the banking system's performance improving month-on-month, and liquidity rebounding, leading to a marginal easing of the funding environment. Non-bank financial services remain highly active but with slowing growth. Transportation shows differentiation, with shipping and container freight rates rebounding while overall freight rates face slight pressure. The environmental protection sector continues to warm up, with improvements in air quality and related investment indicators [3][4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hisense Home Appliances is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The central view indicates that the central air conditioning (CAC) business is under pressure due to weak real estate trends, while the white goods segment shows operational resilience [3][2] - Future cost reduction and product structure optimization are expected to drive profit improvement [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 71.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.81 billion yuan, up 0.7% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 22.19 billion yuan, a 1.2% increase, but a net profit of 735 million yuan, down 5.4% [1] - The CAC business is expected to continue facing challenges, while the home appliance segment shows strong growth, particularly in the refrigerator and washing machine categories, with profits up 35% year-on-year [2] Segment Performance Summary - **CAC**: The CAC business is under pressure, but maintains a leading market share despite domestic sales challenges [2] - **Home Appliances**: The home appliance segment saw a 41% increase in domestic sales but a 20% decrease in exports [2] - **Refrigerators and Washers**: This segment experienced steady growth with a profit increase of 35% year-on-year, leading the industry in growth rates [2] - **Kitchen Appliances**: Revenue increased by 50% year-on-year, with offline channels also showing significant growth [2] Financial Projections - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.49 billion yuan, 3.45 billion yuan, and 3.68 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding dynamic valuations of 10.2x, 10.3x, and 9.7x [3]

Core Insights - The performance of leading home appliance companies Haier Smart Home and Gree Electric Appliances showed significant divergence in the first three quarters of the year, with Haier experiencing growth while Gree faced a decline [2][5] Haier Smart Home - Haier achieved a net profit of 17.373 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.68%, with total revenue reaching 234.054 billion yuan, up 9.98% [3][5] - In Q3, Haier's revenue was 77.56 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.51% increase, and net profit was 5.34 billion yuan, up 12.69% [3] - The company saw a 10.8% revenue growth in the Chinese market in Q3, with significant increases in air conditioning and kitchen appliances, particularly a more than 30% rise in home air conditioning revenue [4] - Haier's digital transformation has improved operational efficiency, with 86% of county specialty stores online and 74% of orders delivered directly to users [4] - Internationally, Haier's overseas revenue grew by 8.25% in Q3 and 10.5% year-to-date, with strong performance in North America and Europe [4] Gree Electric Appliances - Gree reported a net profit of 21.461 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.27%, with total revenue of 137.18 billion yuan, down 6.5% [5] - In Q3, Gree's revenue fell to 39.855 billion yuan, a 15.09% decline, and net profit decreased by 9.92% to 7.049 billion yuan [5] - Despite the decline, Gree's net profit margin improved by 0.69 percentage points to 15.59% [5] - The company is focusing on new retail channel transformations and reducing channel layers to enhance profitability [5] - Gree is also expanding its global market presence, with a new phase of brand self-operation in Southeast Asia and initiatives in smart equipment [5]

Core Viewpoint - Haier Smart Home is a leading player in the global home appliance industry and smart home solutions, with a strong focus on smart home products and solutions across the entire industry chain [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q3 2025, Haier Smart Home achieved a revenue of 2340.54 billion, ranking first in the industry, significantly surpassing the second-ranked Changhong Meiling's revenue of 253.93 billion [2] - The main business composition includes refrigerators at 425.17 billion (27.17%), air conditioners at 327.73 billion (20.94%), washing machines at 316.45 billion (20.22%), and kitchen appliances at 205.08 billion (13.10%) [2] - The net profit for the same period was 178.42 billion, also ranking first in the industry, far exceeding the second-ranked TCL's net profit of 18.17 billion [2] Group 2: Financial Health - As of Q3 2025, Haier Smart Home's debt-to-asset ratio was 56.48%, slightly up from 56.21% year-on-year, but still below the industry average of 65.32%, indicating strong debt repayment capability [3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 27.21%, down from 30.85% year-on-year, yet still above the industry average of 15.61%, reflecting a competitive advantage in profitability [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2020, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 11.88% to 142,200, while the average number of circulating A-shares held per shareholder increased by 13.48% to 44,400 [5] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and China Securities Finance Corporation, with notable changes in shareholdings [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts expect Haier Smart Home's revenue for 2025 to reach 3111.07 billion, with net profits projected at 211.85 billion, and further growth anticipated in 2026 and 2027 [5][6] - The company is focusing on digital transformation to enhance efficiency and profitability, with significant growth in overseas markets and new product launches in the domestic market [6]