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SH周报:周内烧碱区间震荡上下驱动均不足-20250915
Zhe Shang Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 07:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The caustic soda market showed a range-bound oscillation during the week, with insufficient upward and downward drivers [3][7]. - There is an opportunity to short caustic soda, but the upside potential may also be significant. Near-term contracts are supported by peak-season expectations and procurement sentiment, with strong spot prices. The market activities related to the chemical industry also provide strong incentives. In the short term, the market may run in line with the spot market. However, the 01 contract is in a seasonal off - peak period, and the spot price may decline again after the peak season fades [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Prices - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications, mainly including 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The price tracking needs to consider regional characteristics. The low - concentration caustic soda market price remained stable week - on - week. In Shandong, the average market price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda was 886 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2768.75 yuan/dry ton) at the beginning of the week and 886 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2763.75 yuan/dry ton) at the end of the week. Some local prices in Shandong decreased, while other areas remained stable [15]. - The report also provides historical price data of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, and Inner Mongolia, with a daily update frequency [19][21][28]. 3.2 Price Spreads 3.2.1 Model Spreads - The report shows the price spreads between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda, and between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in different regions like Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, with daily updates [30]. 3.2.2 Regional Spreads - It presents the regional price spreads of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda in different regions, such as the spreads between Jiangsu and Shandong, Zhejiang and Shandong, etc., with a daily update frequency [30][34][36]. 3.3 Supply - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national capacity. The production this week is expected to be 831,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic liquid caustic soda enterprises is 84.15%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%. Maintenance this week was mainly concentrated in North China, Central China, and Northwest China, with a slight increase in the impact compared to last week. Some enterprises in the Northwest and North China regions resumed production or increased their loads, leading to an increase in output [37]. - The report also provides historical data on the weekly operating rate and production of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda, with a weekly update frequency [38][42]. - It lists the maintenance situations of chlor - alkali plants, including long - term shutdown capacities, current maintenance, and planned future maintenance. The total impact on the converted - to - 100% production this week is expected to be 25,830 tons [45]. - The operating status of flake caustic soda plants is also detailed, including normal operation, maintenance, and planned operations of various manufacturers [49]. 3.4 Downstream Demand 3.4.1 Alumina - The supply of alumina increased slightly this week. As of September 11, China's alumina installed capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.36% [52]. 3.4.2 Viscose Staple Fiber - The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry this week was 87.77%, a week - on - week increase of 0.67%. Some viscose plants in Xinjiang restarted operations [52]. 3.4.3 Dyeing Industry - As of September 11, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 65.76%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. The production rhythm of dyeing factories is stable, with an increase in the storage of grey fabrics, but overall in small to medium - sized batches. The market is divided in terms of orders, with stable domestic orders for autumn and winter fabrics and no obvious improvement in export orders [52]. 3.5 Inventory - As of September 12, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda factories was 242,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.85%. The downstream procurement demand was good this week, and the alkali plants had smooth sales, resulting in a decline in inventory. The inventory of domestic flake caustic soda factories was 24,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.37%. The market trading atmosphere remained stable, enterprises mainly delivered pre - sold orders, and some major manufacturers reduced flake caustic soda production, leading to a decrease in inventory [68]. 3.6 Valuation - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. Each ton of caustic soda production requires about 2.15 tons of raw salt, accounting for about 12 - 18% of the total cost, and about 2300 - 2400 kWh of electricity, accounting for about 60% of the total cost [72]. - In terms of the cost side, the domestic industrial salt market was in a consolidation stage this week. The price of well - mine salt was narrowly fluctuating, and the price of sea salt remained stable. The price of thermal coal was weakly stable. The supply of coal was relatively stable, and the demand was weak, with limited market trading activity [72]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali on the spot side increased compared to last week, with a slight weakening of the cost side and strong prices in the liquid caustic soda market [73]. 3.7 Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - The report provides data on the benchmark spot price of PVC, the weekly operating rate of PVC powder, and the comprehensive profit of calcium carbide - based and northwest integrated chlor - alkali. It also includes data on the capacity utilization rate and production profit of propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, etc. [82][83][87]
烧碱:现货价格坚挺,期价为何走弱?
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 01:49
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The report holds a view of strong current situation but weak future expectations, predicting that the off - season contracts of caustic soda are likely to operate weakly [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - As of August 29, the weekly production of caustic soda reached 813,200 tons, still at a relatively high level in the past five years but showing a decline. The average operating rate dropped from a peak of 85.1% to 82.4%. The main reasons are the arrival of the autumn regular maintenance peak and temporary shutdowns of some enterprises in Shandong due to traffic control. The current maintenance capacity is 3.13 million tons, and according to the maintenance plan, 2.79 million tons and 1.31 million tons of new maintenance devices are expected in September and October respectively, with the operating rate unlikely to return to the previous high in September. However, some chlor - alkali plants have resumed production after the traffic control in Shandong was lifted [6] - The planned new production capacity this year has decreased from over 4 million tons at the beginning of the year to 2.25 million tons, with some projects postponed to next year due to environmental approval and production profit issues. Currently, Shandong Hydrogen Energy New Energy, Shandong Qingdao Bay, Tianjin Bohua Chemical, and Gansu Yaowang Chemical have all been put into production, and there are still 1.15 million tons of production capacity to be put into operation in the fourth quarter. The achievement rate of production capacity needs to be continuously tracked. Additionally, about 19.25 million tons of caustic soda production capacity is over 20 years old, accounting for 39% of the total capacity. Since the industry is still profitable overall, the impact of the "anti - involution" policy is expected to be limited, and policy changes need to be continuously observed [6] Demand Side - In terms of alumina demand, as of August 29, the latest weekly output of alumina reached 1.847 million tons, at a high level this year. Alumina plants are still profitable, and with the increase in new production in the fourth quarter, the output is expected to rise steadily. Although the alkali - preparation demand before production is lower than that in the first half of the year, the incremental daily alkali consumption demand will still strongly support the caustic soda consumption this year [14] - In terms of non - aluminum demand, the cumulative output of viscose staple fiber in the first seven months of this year was 2.89 million tons, a slight increase of 1.7% compared with the same period last year. The recent seasonal peak season has driven an increase in alkali - preparation demand. The overall starting rate of the printing and dyeing industry is lower than last year, but it has also entered the seasonal peak season recently, with the starting rate rising compared to the previous period. The elasticity and sustainability of peak - season demand need to be continuously observed [14] Market Outlook - The demand side of caustic soda is currently in the early stage of the seasonal peak season. The production has declined due to autumn maintenance, and the inventory has decreased temporarily. The spot price is expected to remain strong in the short term. However, as the peak - season demand fades and the autumn - maintenance production capacity returns, coupled with the fact that the caustic soda inventory this year is still at a high level in recent years, the supply of caustic soda is expected to return to an oversupply situation after October. Therefore, if the seasonal peak season and the overall optimistic sentiment in the commodity market drive the off - season 01 contract to rise significantly to an overvalued level, short positions can be established at high prices after the market fluctuations stabilize or after the warehouse receipts start to be registered. The reference operating range for SH2601 is 2,200 - 2,800 yuan per ton. The changes in peak - season inventory, the registration volume of warehouse receipts, and the progress of alumina production capacity commissioning need to be continuously tracked [3][19]
烧碱投资周报:现货价格持稳,盘面震荡偏强-20250901
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 05:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report No clear core viewpoints are explicitly stated in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - The report presents a table of caustic soda's main weekly data, including prices, production, operating rates, inventory, and cost - profit data. For instance, the futures price of caustic soda is 2670.0 yuan/ton, down 2.59% from last week; China's production is 810,000 tons, down 0.38% [4]. PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Multiple charts are presented, showing the trends of caustic soda's basis, prices of different types of caustic soda (such as 32% and 50% caustic soda), and trading volume of different contracts over different time periods from 2019 to 2025 [7][10][12] PART THREE: Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - There are various charts showing data related to caustic soda's supply - demand fundamentals, including device loss volume, capacity utilization, inventory in different regions of China (such as North China, East China, and Northwest China), and ECU profits in different provinces (such as Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang) from 2019 to 2025 [30][33][35] - Charts also display the operating rates of downstream industries such as epoxy chloropropane, epoxy propane, and PVC, as well as the operating rates in different regions like Shandong and Northwest China over different time periods [69]
A股突发!600156,重大资产重组!停牌
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-06-09 13:23
Core Viewpoint - Huasheng Co., Ltd. (600156) is planning to acquire 100% equity of Shenzhen Yixin Technology Co., Ltd. through a combination of issuing shares and cash payment, while also raising matching funds through share issuance [1][3]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The transaction is classified as a major asset restructuring according to the regulations but does not constitute a restructuring listing [3]. - The transaction is still in the planning stage, with no formal agreements signed yet, and discussions are ongoing [3]. - Huasheng Co. will suspend trading starting June 10, 2025, due to this transaction [3]. Group 2: Company Profiles - Huasheng Co. is primarily engaged in the textile industry, focusing on hemp spinning, and has established a complete industrial chain covering spinning, weaving, dyeing, and garment manufacturing [3]. - In 2024, Huasheng Co. reported a revenue of 778 million yuan, a significant increase of 33.8% year-on-year, but faced a net loss of over 60 million yuan, which widened compared to the previous year [3]. - Yixin Technology, founded in August 2003, is a leading internet infrastructure service provider in China, offering data center operations and internet technology development, with a revenue of 166 million yuan and a net profit of 24.28 million yuan in 2017 [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - The transaction involves existing shareholders of Yixin Technology, including Bai Bentong (37.29%) and Zhang Limin (11.47%), among others [4]. - Huasheng Co. has signed a cooperation intention agreement with Bai Bentong and Zhang Limin [4]. - Post-transaction, Bai Bentong and Zhang Limin are expected to hold over 5% of Huasheng Co.'s shares, indicating that this will be an associated transaction [4]. Group 4: Market Performance - Huasheng Co. has seen a strong stock performance recently, with a 35.24% increase in the past month and nearly a 63% rise since the beginning of the year [4]. - The current market capitalization of Huasheng Co. is approximately 3.2 billion yuan [4].