Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]. 2. Report's Core View - The current situation of caustic soda is weak, but the future expectation is strong. Although the current high - inventory and weak - demand situation is difficult to reverse in the short term, the previous short - selling logic of caustic soda profit will be challenged later, and the far - month contracts may face cost increases and large - scale production cuts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - On February 4, 2026, the 03 - contract futures price of caustic soda was 1969. The cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 600, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 1875, and the basis was - 94 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - On February 3, taking the Shandong region as a benchmark, the price center of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong declined by 10 - 20, while the price of 50% liquid caustic soda increased moderately by 10 in some areas [2]. 3.3 Market Situation Analysis - The previous core logic of short - selling caustic soda profit was the strong performance of liquid chlorine and the decline in caustic soda cost, and manufacturers did not cut production as long as they were not at the cash - flow cost, resulting in a pattern of high production and high inventory. However, this logic will be challenged after April when the short - term strong pattern of liquid chlorine may not last [2]. - From the fundamental perspective, the high inventory of caustic soda makes the weak spot market difficult to reverse before the Spring Festival. In terms of demand, the oversupply of alumina has not changed in the short term, and the expectation of production cuts suppresses the stockpiling of caustic soda. Although there will be incremental demand from large - scale capacity expansion later, non - aluminum downstream industries face a seasonal decline in rigid demand and export pressure, so overall demand lacks support. On the supply side, winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, and manufacturers are unlikely to significantly reduce production until they incur losses at the cash - flow cost [2]. - Recently, the futures market is insensitive to spot price cuts, and the price cut of liquid chlorine will lead to a pattern of cost increases and large - scale production cuts in the far - month contracts [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The industry is expected to maintain a situation of high production and high inventory in the short - term. The SH2603 contract is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the range around 1900 - 2000. The 03 contract has limited room for rebound, while the 05 contract is stronger due to the trading of maintenance expectations. The spot supply and demand of liquid caustic soda remain loose, and the low profit of the alumina industry restricts procurement demand and increases the expectation of production cuts in the future. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 1951 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan. The main contract position is 263,142 lots, an increase of 328 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 29,970 lots, a decrease of 457 lots. The main contract trading volume is 621,860 lots, a decrease of 268,681 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2426 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan, and the May contract is 2213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 603 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 1884 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan. The basis is - 67 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 242.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 642 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 350 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina is 2555 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.6 Industry News - From January 16th to 22nd, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 87.7%, a 1.0% increase from the previous week. From January 17th to 23rd, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.65% to 85.18%. From January 16th to 22nd, the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 88.43%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 2.23% to 56.54%. As of January 22nd, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 509,600 tons (wet tons), a 0.49% decrease from the previous period and a 105.77% increase year - on - year. From January 16th to 22nd, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 209 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the caustic soda industry is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly fluctuate [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market shows a situation where spot prices are stable with a downward trend, and the futures market has a slight rebound. Supply and demand factors are both neutral, inventory is bearish, profit is bearish, and valuation is bullish. Overall, the short - term market is expected to oscillate [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.8 tons to 85 tons, and the average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons and above of caustic soda was 86.0%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%. Next week, domestic chlor - alkali equipment maintenance and restart will coexist, and the overall startup is expected to move slightly upward [3]. - **Demand**: Alumina start - up declined, and non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 87.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.59%. The comprehensive start - up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 61.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77% [3]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons and above was 442,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 4.83% and a year - on - year increase of 39.57%. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 27.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.08%. Warehouse inventories in the central and eastern regions decreased [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 49, with the futures price at a premium [3]. - **Profit**: During the period, raw material and auxiliary material costs were stable, energy costs decreased, and the theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased. The caustic soda price increased, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine decreased, and the overall chlor - alkali profit decreased. The average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was - 61 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 26% [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price is at a low level, the absolute futures price is low, and the near - month contract has a slight premium [3]. - **Macro Policy**: There is currently no relevant macro - policy impact [3]. - **Investment View**: The short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: There are no suggestions for unilateral trading and arbitrage. Key risks to watch include changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and the global economic recession [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The spot market in Shandong was weak this week, and the futures market had weak support at the bottom. The price of liquid chlorine was higher than in the first half of the year, first falling and then rising, fluctuating around 200 yuan/ton. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit was close to the break - even line. The 32% caustic soda price was stable with a downward trend, and the high - concentration caustic soda had not yet stabilized. Downstream demand was weak, and the overall performance of the Shandong market was still poor. There were expectations of price cuts for alumina procurement in Shanxi and Henan [6]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Upstream**: Coal supply is tight, and electricity prices are rising. The upstream production capacity utilization rate remains at a high level, and inventory is being depleted. In the main production areas, maintenance in North China has decreased, and production has increased. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit has declined [31][34][37]. - **Downstream**: Alumina prices have declined, and non - aluminum prices are weak. Alumina production has recovered, and inventory has increased. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new plants, the alumina start - up rate in Henan has significantly increased. Non - aluminum demand has entered a seasonal off - season, and start - up rates are declining. The start - up rate of liquid chlorine downstream has rebounded [42][54][67].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Near - term, the rebound of caustic soda is restricted, with contracts 2601 and 2602 having limited continuous rebound space due to factors like high production, high inventory, and negative feedback from the alumina industry. However, far - month contracts are undervalued and have long - allocation value with cost support, but significant price increases require large - scale supply - side maintenance or production cuts [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - On December 24, the Shandong market was divided. The eastern part had stable prices with low inventory pressure, while the western part faced poor sales and low prices due to reduced external demand. The 01 - contract futures price was 2250, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong was 710, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2219, and the basis was - 31 [2]. 3.2 Market Condition Analysis - The rebound of caustic soda is driven by near - term capital shifting and expected supply cuts next year. But in terms of fundamentals, caustic soda will have high production and high inventory around the Spring Festival. Demand is weak due to low alumina profits and seasonal decline in non - aluminum downstream demand and export pressure. Supply is under pressure as winter is a low - maintenance season for chlor - alkali enterprises. Near - term contracts are suppressed by warehouse receipts, while far - term contracts are undervalued but need supply - side changes for significant price increases [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being integers from - 2 to 2 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the short - term market has no obvious drivers, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of caustic soda is falling, and the futures market is fluctuating weakly. Supply, demand, and macro - policies are neutral, while inventory, profit, and valuation are bearish [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.8 million tons to 84 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.0%, a week - on - week increase of 1.0%. Loads in North, Central, and East China increased [3]. - **Demand**: Alumina production declined, non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 91.29%, unchanged from last week. The comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 64.46%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07% [3]. - **Inventory**: Due to weak downstream demand and poor receiving enthusiasm, caustic soda inventory increased. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 504,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 7.43% and a year - on - year increase of 79.32% [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 87, and the futures price is at a discount [3]. - **Profit**: The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 13 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 46%. The theoretical production cost of caustic soda increased, and the overall chlor - alkali profit decreased [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price is at a low level, and the absolute futures price is relatively low. The near - month contract is slightly at a discount [3]. - **Macro - policy**: The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has subsided, and the market trades based on fundamentals [3]. - **Investment View**: The short - term market has no obvious drivers, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: No unilateral or arbitrage strategies are recommended currently. Pay attention to changes in liquid chlorine prices, reserve policies, and the global economic recession [3]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: This week, Shandong's spot market was weak, and the futures market had weak bottom support. The liquid chlorine price was higher than in the first half of the year and increased this week, fluctuating around 200 yuan/ton. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit was close to the break - even line. The spot price is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine and the alumina production schedule [9]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of caustic soda continued to fall and has not yet stabilized. Due to the "buy on rising" psychology, demand is difficult to increase [9]. - **Open Interest**: The total open interest increased, and the far - month contracts saw an increase in positions [25]. 3.3 Fundamental Data of Caustic Soda Supply and Demand - **Electricity Price**: Coal supply was tight, and electricity prices rose [33]. - **Device Loss and Capacity Utilization**: The device loss and capacity utilization data are presented in a chart, and the overall capacity utilization rate showed certain trends [36]. - **Production in Main Producing Areas**: Maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased. The production data of different regions in different years are presented in a chart [38]. - **Chlor - alkali Profit**: The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit decreased [39]. - **Downstream Prices**: Alumina prices declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [42]. - **Alumina**: Alumina production recovered, and inventory increased. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the production rate of alumina in Henan increased significantly. The supply - demand balance of alumina was restored, and inventory increased. The inventory of bauxite at ports decreased, and alumina profit was good and remained stable year - on - year [54][65]. - **Non - aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum production remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. The non - aluminum industry entered a seasonal off - season, and production began to decline [66]. - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The production rate rebounded [74]. - **Subsequent Maintenance Information**: Multiple enterprises in different regions have maintenance plans, including full - stop, half - load, and planned maintenance at different times [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for caustic soda is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current caustic soda market shows a situation where spot prices are declining and the futures market is oscillating weakly. The supply side has seen an increase in production due to reduced maintenance, while the demand side has a decline in alumina production and weak non - aluminum demand. Inventory has been accumulating, and profits are under pressure, resulting in an overall market with no clear short - term driving force, expected to be mainly oscillating [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.8 tons to 84 tons. The average utilization rate of the production capacity of sample enterprises with a caustic soda capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 85.0%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4%. Loads in North China, Central China, and East China all increased [3] - **Demand**: Alumina production decreased, and non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 91.29%, a week - on - week increase of 1.20%. The comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 65.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02% [3] - **Inventory**: Recently, downstream demand was weak, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods was poor, leading to an accumulation of caustic soda inventory. Factory inventory was 469,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 87.95%. The storage capacity ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 29.10%, a week - on - week increase of 2.01% [3] - **Basis**: The basis of the current main contract was around 57, and the futures price was at a discount [3] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 62 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70%. The price of liquid chlorine was stable, while the price of caustic soda decreased, resulting in a decline in overall chlor - alkali profits [3] - **Valuation**: The spot price was neutral, and the absolute futures price was low. The near - month contract was near par [3] - **Macroeconomic Policy**: The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector subsided, and the futures market traded based on fundamentals [3] - **Investment View**: In the short term, there was no clear driving force for the futures market, which was expected to mainly oscillate [3] - **Trading Strategy**: There were no unilateral or arbitrage trading strategies recommended for the time being [3] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: The Shandong spot market was weak this week, and the bottom support of the futures market was weak. In the short term, with less future maintenance and the impact of new production capacity, supply pressure increased. Alumina production continued to decline, and the procurement rhythm of caustic soda slowed down, leading to an increase in factory inventory pressure. Spot prices were expected to decline in an oscillating manner [6] - **Position**: The total open interest increased, and the far - month contracts saw an increase in positions [24] 3.3 Fundamental Supply and Demand Data of Caustic Soda - **Electricity Price**: Coal supply was tight, leading to an increase in electricity prices [32] - **Device Loss and Production**: The loss of devices decreased, and production in North China increased due to reduced maintenance [35][37] - **Chlor - Alkali Profit**: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali decreased [38] - **Downstream Price**: The price of alumina declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [41] - **Alumina**: The production of alumina recovered, but inventory accumulated. The supply - demand balance of alumina improved, port bauxite inventory decreased, and alumina profits were good and stable year - on - year [53][64] - **Non - Aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum production remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum demand entered the seasonal off - season, and production began to decline [65][66] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The production rate of the liquid chlorine downstream industry rebounded [73] - **Subsequent Maintenance Information**: Multiple enterprises in East China, Central China, and Southwest China had maintenance plans from November 2025 to January 2026 [77]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of caustic soda has limited changes and will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. The price center of caustic soda is expected to decline in the later stage. The current and expected supply - demand patterns contrast significantly. The upstream has production and inventory strategies. Demand is weakening, and as winter approaches, the upstream's active de - stocking pressure may impact the spot market. Attention can be paid to the rebound of the futures market [2][4]. - Different market participants are recommended different hedging strategies. For example, producers can buy put options and sell call options for inventory management; traders can sell put options and buy call options for procurement and inventory management; end - customers can buy call options to prevent price increases when purchasing and buy put options to protect inventory value [2]. - Key data to monitor include the commissioning of downstream alumina plants, the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream industries on the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, the maintenance status of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises, and the marginal changes in caustic soda factory inventories [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Price - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications such as 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The price of low - concentration caustic soda in the region weakened week - on - week. In Shandong, the average market price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda decreased from 807 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2521.875 yuan/dry ton) at the beginning of the week to 801 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2512.5 yuan/dry ton) at the weekend. The supply in Shandong was relatively sufficient, and the demand from alumina enterprises had a suppressing effect on the market [11]. 2. Price Difference 2.1 Model Price Difference - The price differences between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shaanxi, as well as between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, showed different trends. The data showed fluctuations over time [29]. 2.2 Regional Price Difference - The price differences of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda between different regions (such as Jiangsu - Shandong, Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong) were presented, and the data updated daily [29][33][39]. 3. Supply - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national production capacity. This week, the domestic caustic soda output is expected to be 877,810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 367 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic liquid caustic soda enterprises is 88.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.40%. There were fewer maintenance arrangements in the chlor - alkali market this week, and the overall supply increased [40]. - The operating rates and outputs of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda were presented with weekly data. Some chlor - alkali enterprises had maintenance, resumption, or planned maintenance, which affected the production volume. For example, some enterprises in Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong, etc. had maintenance or resumed production, and some enterprises in Xinjiang, Shandong had planned maintenance [41][45][48]. 4. Downstream Demand - Alumina: The supply of alumina decreased slightly this week due to maintenance in Guangxi and Shanxi. As of November 13, China's alumina production capacity was 118 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.9 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.54% [55]. - Viscose staple fiber: The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry from November 7 - 13, 2025, was 89.50%, a decrease of 0.1% compared to last week [55]. - Printing and dyeing industry: As of November 13, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%. The overall operating rate of dyeing factories was polarized, with large - scale factories maintaining over 60% and small - and medium - sized factories generally dropping to around 50%. Orders were insufficient [55]. 5. Inventory - As of November 14, 2025, the domestic liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 254,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.04%. The domestic flake caustic soda factory inventory was 37,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.81%. The market demand did not improve significantly, and the inventory of some factories increased [74]. 6. Valuation - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. The domestic industrial salt market price remained stable this week, and the thermal coal market price increased slightly. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the spot market weakened compared to last week [78][79]. 7. Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - Information on the prices, capacity utilization rates, and production profits of PVC, propylene oxide, and epichlorohydrin was presented, including their historical data and update frequencies [87][96].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the caustic soda industry is "Weak" [3] Core View of the Report - The high production and high inventory pattern of caustic soda continues, and the market keeps shorting the chlor-alkali profit. The influence of alumina's production startup and reduction expectations on caustic soda can basically offset each other. During winter, the supply-demand gap caused by stockpiling is limited under high operation. Non-aluminum downstream support is limited and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure. The valuation of caustic soda is always suppressed by the alumina production reduction expectation. Although the price reduction of liquid chlorine can raise the cost of caustic soda, the rebound space is limited without production cuts by manufacturers. In the long run, the alumina production reduction will lead to negative feedback in the industrial chain [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On November 13, 2025, the futures price of the 01 contract was 2344, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 780, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was 94 [1] Spot News - On November 12, the caustic soda market price in Shandong was partially stable, and some markets saw a slight increase after inventory decline. The supply in Shandong has both increases and decreases, and the short-term impact is unclear. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [2] Market Condition Analysis - The high production and high inventory pattern of caustic soda continues, and the market keeps shorting the chlor-alkali profit. From the demand side, the influence of alumina's production startup and reduction expectations on caustic soda can basically offset each other. During winter, the supply-demand gap caused by stockpiling is limited under high operation. Non-aluminum downstream support is limited and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure. The valuation of caustic soda is always suppressed by the alumina production reduction expectation. Although the price reduction of liquid chlorine can raise the cost of caustic soda, it can only lead to a low-level valuation repair. Without production cuts by manufacturers, the rebound space of caustic soda is always limited. In the long run, the alumina production reduction will lead to negative feedback in the industrial chain [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is -1, indicating a "Weak" trend [3]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for caustic soda is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 2330.0 CNY/ton and a decline of 1.37% observed [1] - Current market conditions indicate an oversupply of caustic soda, with weak spot prices and a slight recovery in liquid chlorine prices, leading to strong downward pressure on caustic soda [1] - The electricity price trend is providing some support to caustic soda futures, but risks remain if liquid chlorine prices weaken, affecting the overall cost support for the chlor-alkali industry [1] Group 2 - The average national capacity utilization rate for caustic soda has significantly increased due to the restart of multiple production units across various regions [2] - Downstream demand from alumina remains stable, but low profit margins are expected to continue, suppressing inventory replenishment needs in the industry [2] - High operating rates and inventory levels, combined with weak demand, are putting continuous pressure on caustic soda prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current spot market for caustic soda is weaker than expected, with non - aluminum sectors showing no obvious restocking behavior and speculative demand remaining subdued. As maintenance work concludes, supply pressure is rising, and the strong price of liquid chlorine is weakening cost support [1]. - The high - profit and high - production pattern restricts the price increase of caustic soda. There are limited overall contradictions, but the near - term demand and restocking rhythm are falling short of expectations, leading to a judgment of weak and volatile prices. It is recommended to adopt range - bound trading strategies within the range of [2200, 2400] [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Near - term trading logic**: The overall spot market is weak, with non - aluminum restocking falling short of expectations. Alumina is under pressure, with local supply adjustments and a slight decline in operating rates, which may affect the demand outlook for caustic soda. The chlor - alkali industry maintains medium - to - high profits, and the recent strength of liquid chlorine weakens cost support. Production is increasing, and supply pressure persists [1]. - **Long - term trading expectations**: High profits limit price increases. In the medium - to - long term, there is continued pressure from new production capacity. The realization degree and timing of downstream alumina production capacity may vary, affecting the phased restocking rhythm [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market positioning**: The high - profit and high - production pattern restricts the price space of caustic soda. Overall contradictions are limited, but near - term demand and restocking rhythm are below expectations. It is recommended to trade within the range of [2200, 2400] [5]. - **Basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations**: Current short positions on a single - side basis are advised to be closed, or wait for signs of the spot market hitting bottom [6]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for caustic soda is 2200 - 2400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.75% and a historical percentile of 43.8% over three years [7]. - **Risk management strategy recommendations**: For inventory management, when product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises can short caustic soda futures to lock in profits and sell call options to collect premiums. For procurement management, when the regular inventory for procurement is low, enterprises can buy caustic soda futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to collect premiums [7]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Factory - gate prices**: The factory - gate prices of 32% caustic soda in various regions on October 31, 2025, mostly remained unchanged compared to the previous day, except for a 1.5% decrease in Shaanxi Beiyuan. The prices of 50% caustic soda and flake caustic soda also showed little change, with a 1.5% decrease in Shandong flake caustic soda [8][9]. - **Price differentials**: The price differentials between different grades and regions of caustic soda were mostly stable on October 31, 2025, with a 10 - yuan decrease in the price differential of 50% caustic soda between Guangdong and Shandong [9]. - **Futures prices and spreads**: On October 31, 2025, the caustic soda 05 contract increased by 0.12%, the 09 contract decreased by 0.16%, and the 01 contract decreased by 0.3%. The basis and spreads also showed corresponding changes [10]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: There are still expectations for downstream aluminum plants to stock up on caustic soda from November to December, which may boost the spot market [10]. - **Negative information**: Caustic soda production continues to recover, increasing supply pressure. Non - aluminum sectors have not shown concentrated restocking. The high price of liquid chlorine weakens cost support [13]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Whether liquid chlorine prices will continue to rise, which would further weaken the cost support for caustic soda. - Observe the mid - and downstream demand, especially whether non - aluminum sectors will show restocking signs. - Monitor whether inventory accumulation continues [13]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - The main 2601 contract of caustic soda showed low - level fluctuations this week, with the absolute price reaching a relatively low level for the year. This is mainly related to market sentiment and weak market conditions, as non - aluminum downstream restocking in the short - term fell short of expectations [14]. - **Basis and spread structure**: The spot market remained stable, with the 32% caustic soda from Shandong Jinling converted to the futures price at 2406 yuan/ton, with a premium of 95 - 100 yuan over the 01 contract. The spot market was weak, and the 12 - 01 spread was positive [16]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Profit valuation is moderately high. This week, the price of industrial salt remained stable, while the price of liquid chlorine was strong, resulting in high chlor - alkali profits. Currently, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu it is 200 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan). The current profit of caustic soda in Shandong is over 400 yuan/ton (including liquid chlorine) [21]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - In terms of exports, the CFR price in Southeast Asia increased by 5 US dollars week - on - week to around 460 US dollars, remaining generally stable. There is an expected substitution effect on overseas caustic soda demand, and the sustainability of exports needs to be observed [28]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Spot Data - **Caustic soda prices**: The report provides historical price trends of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and flake caustic soda in different regions, as well as price differentials between regions and grades, and spot - to - futures conversion prices [30][35][40]. - **External market prices**: It shows the historical price trends of caustic soda in international markets such as Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, the United States, and Western Europe [84]. 3.5.2 Supply Side - **Production losses**: It presents the seasonal trends of weekly and monthly production losses of caustic soda [93]. - **Liquid caustic soda production and operating rates**: The weekly and monthly production and operating rates of liquid caustic soda in different regions are provided, showing an overall upward trend in production and relatively stable operating rates [95][96]. - **Flake caustic soda production and operating rates**: The weekly production and operating rates of flake caustic soda in different regions are presented, with production and operating rates also showing certain trends [105]. 3.5.3 Demand Side - **Downstream product data**: It includes the spot price, cost, and profit of alumina, as well as the operating rates of downstream products such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, and viscose staple fiber [112][113]. - **Export structure**: The export structure of caustic soda by continent is shown [119]. 3.5.4 Inventory - **Liquid caustic soda inventory**: The weekly factory inventories of liquid caustic soda in different regions and the overall inventory trends are provided [121][124]. - **Flake caustic soda inventory**: The weekly factory inventories and total industry inventories of flake caustic soda in different regions are presented [140][142].