01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【烧碱周报（SH ）】 现货价格下跌，盘面震荡偏弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-08 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 烧碱 :现货价格下跌，盘面震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周检修有所减少，产量有所上升。周度国内烧碱产量环比上涨0.8万吨至84万吨;（2）20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为86.0%，较上 | | | | 周环比+1.0%。分区域来看，华北、华中、华东负荷均有上升，华北+0.7%至81.0%，其中山东-0.1%至92.8%，华中+5.1%至83.3%；华东+1.5%至76.9%。 | | | | 其它大区基本稳定。 | | 需求 | 中性 | （1）氧化铝开工有所下滑，非铝需求疲软。（2)粘胶短纤行业产能利 ...

01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【烧碱周报（SH ）】 现货价格下跌，盘面震荡偏弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-01 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 烧碱 :现货价格阴跌，盘面震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周检修有所减少，产量有所上升。周度国内烧碱产量环比上涨0.8万吨至84万吨;（2）20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为85.0%，较上 周环比+0.4%。分区域来看，华北、华中、华东负荷均有上升，其中华北+0.5%至80.5%，其中山东+0.7%至92.9%，其它大区基本稳定。 | | 需求 | 中性 | （1）氧化铝开工有所下滑，非铝需求疲软。（2)粘胶短纤行业产能利用率91.29%，较上周+1.20%。本周粘胶装置平稳运行，但由于上周部分粘胶装置检 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of caustic soda has limited changes and will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. The price center of caustic soda is expected to decline in the later stage. The current and expected supply - demand patterns contrast significantly. The upstream has production and inventory strategies. Demand is weakening, and as winter approaches, the upstream's active de - stocking pressure may impact the spot market. Attention can be paid to the rebound of the futures market [2][4]. - Different market participants are recommended different hedging strategies. For example, producers can buy put options and sell call options for inventory management; traders can sell put options and buy call options for procurement and inventory management; end - customers can buy call options to prevent price increases when purchasing and buy put options to protect inventory value [2]. - Key data to monitor include the commissioning of downstream alumina plants, the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream industries on the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, the maintenance status of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises, and the marginal changes in caustic soda factory inventories [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Price - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications such as 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The price of low - concentration caustic soda in the region weakened week - on - week. In Shandong, the average market price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda decreased from 807 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2521.875 yuan/dry ton) at the beginning of the week to 801 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2512.5 yuan/dry ton) at the weekend. The supply in Shandong was relatively sufficient, and the demand from alumina enterprises had a suppressing effect on the market [11]. 2. Price Difference 2.1 Model Price Difference - The price differences between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shaanxi, as well as between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, showed different trends. The data showed fluctuations over time [29]. 2.2 Regional Price Difference - The price differences of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda between different regions (such as Jiangsu - Shandong, Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong) were presented, and the data updated daily [29][33][39]. 3. Supply - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national production capacity. This week, the domestic caustic soda output is expected to be 877,810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 367 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic liquid caustic soda enterprises is 88.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.40%. There were fewer maintenance arrangements in the chlor - alkali market this week, and the overall supply increased [40]. - The operating rates and outputs of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda were presented with weekly data. Some chlor - alkali enterprises had maintenance, resumption, or planned maintenance, which affected the production volume. For example, some enterprises in Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong, etc. had maintenance or resumed production, and some enterprises in Xinjiang, Shandong had planned maintenance [41][45][48]. 4. Downstream Demand - Alumina: The supply of alumina decreased slightly this week due to maintenance in Guangxi and Shanxi. As of November 13, China's alumina production capacity was 118 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.9 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.54% [55]. - Viscose staple fiber: The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry from November 7 - 13, 2025, was 89.50%, a decrease of 0.1% compared to last week [55]. - Printing and dyeing industry: As of November 13, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%. The overall operating rate of dyeing factories was polarized, with large - scale factories maintaining over 60% and small - and medium - sized factories generally dropping to around 50%. Orders were insufficient [55]. 5. Inventory - As of November 14, 2025, the domestic liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 254,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.04%. The domestic flake caustic soda factory inventory was 37,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.81%. The market demand did not improve significantly, and the inventory of some factories increased [74]. 6. Valuation - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. The domestic industrial salt market price remained stable this week, and the thermal coal market price increased slightly. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the spot market weakened compared to last week [78][79]. 7. Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - Information on the prices, capacity utilization rates, and production profits of PVC, propylene oxide, and epichlorohydrin was presented, including their historical data and update frequencies [87][96].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the caustic soda industry is "Weak" [3] Core View of the Report - The high production and high inventory pattern of caustic soda continues, and the market keeps shorting the chlor-alkali profit. The influence of alumina's production startup and reduction expectations on caustic soda can basically offset each other. During winter, the supply-demand gap caused by stockpiling is limited under high operation. Non-aluminum downstream support is limited and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure. The valuation of caustic soda is always suppressed by the alumina production reduction expectation. Although the price reduction of liquid chlorine can raise the cost of caustic soda, the rebound space is limited without production cuts by manufacturers. In the long run, the alumina production reduction will lead to negative feedback in the industrial chain [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On November 13, 2025, the futures price of the 01 contract was 2344, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 780, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was 94 [1] Spot News - On November 12, the caustic soda market price in Shandong was partially stable, and some markets saw a slight increase after inventory decline. The supply in Shandong has both increases and decreases, and the short-term impact is unclear. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [2] Market Condition Analysis - The high production and high inventory pattern of caustic soda continues, and the market keeps shorting the chlor-alkali profit. From the demand side, the influence of alumina's production startup and reduction expectations on caustic soda can basically offset each other. During winter, the supply-demand gap caused by stockpiling is limited under high operation. Non-aluminum downstream support is limited and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure. The valuation of caustic soda is always suppressed by the alumina production reduction expectation. Although the price reduction of liquid chlorine can raise the cost of caustic soda, it can only lead to a low-level valuation repair. Without production cuts by manufacturers, the rebound space of caustic soda is always limited. In the long run, the alumina production reduction will lead to negative feedback in the industrial chain [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is -1, indicating a "Weak" trend [3]

11月5日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，烧碱期货主力合约开盘报2330.0元/吨，今日盘中低位震 荡运行；截至午间收盘，烧碱主力最高触及2331.0元，下方探低2270.0元，跌幅达1.37%。 目前来看，烧碱行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于烧碱后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 中泰期货指出，当前烧碱现货价格萎靡、液氯价格略有回暖，烧碱供过于求现象较为明显，烧碱向下驱 动较强。电价走势对烧碱期货产生一定支撑。做空风险点在于液氯价格走弱之后的氯碱综合成本支撑。 做多风险点在干液碱现货价格的疯，震荡偏空思路对待。 国投安信期货表示，液氯继续降价，利润收窄，部分企业因盈利压力选择降负减产。行业延续累库态 势，库存压力较大。主力下游提货量下降，氧化铝利润压缩，开工小幅下行，目前原料库存较高，补库 意愿不强；非铝需求增长有限。下游需求一般，预计期价低位运行为主，进一步关注液氯价格走势，若 继续降价，不排除成本支撑下，烧碱低价回升。 瑞达期货（002961）分析称，上周华东、华北、西北、华南、东北等地多套装置重启，烧碱全国平均产 能利用率上升显著。下游氧化铝维持高开工状态，粘胶短纤、印染开工率窄幅 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current spot market for caustic soda is weaker than expected, with non - aluminum sectors showing no obvious restocking behavior and speculative demand remaining subdued. As maintenance work concludes, supply pressure is rising, and the strong price of liquid chlorine is weakening cost support [1]. - The high - profit and high - production pattern restricts the price increase of caustic soda. There are limited overall contradictions, but the near - term demand and restocking rhythm are falling short of expectations, leading to a judgment of weak and volatile prices. It is recommended to adopt range - bound trading strategies within the range of [2200, 2400] [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Near - term trading logic**: The overall spot market is weak, with non - aluminum restocking falling short of expectations. Alumina is under pressure, with local supply adjustments and a slight decline in operating rates, which may affect the demand outlook for caustic soda. The chlor - alkali industry maintains medium - to - high profits, and the recent strength of liquid chlorine weakens cost support. Production is increasing, and supply pressure persists [1]. - **Long - term trading expectations**: High profits limit price increases. In the medium - to - long term, there is continued pressure from new production capacity. The realization degree and timing of downstream alumina production capacity may vary, affecting the phased restocking rhythm [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market positioning**: The high - profit and high - production pattern restricts the price space of caustic soda. Overall contradictions are limited, but near - term demand and restocking rhythm are below expectations. It is recommended to trade within the range of [2200, 2400] [5]. - **Basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations**: Current short positions on a single - side basis are advised to be closed, or wait for signs of the spot market hitting bottom [6]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for caustic soda is 2200 - 2400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.75% and a historical percentile of 43.8% over three years [7]. - **Risk management strategy recommendations**: For inventory management, when product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises can short caustic soda futures to lock in profits and sell call options to collect premiums. For procurement management, when the regular inventory for procurement is low, enterprises can buy caustic soda futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to collect premiums [7]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Factory - gate prices**: The factory - gate prices of 32% caustic soda in various regions on October 31, 2025, mostly remained unchanged compared to the previous day, except for a 1.5% decrease in Shaanxi Beiyuan. The prices of 50% caustic soda and flake caustic soda also showed little change, with a 1.5% decrease in Shandong flake caustic soda [8][9]. - **Price differentials**: The price differentials between different grades and regions of caustic soda were mostly stable on October 31, 2025, with a 10 - yuan decrease in the price differential of 50% caustic soda between Guangdong and Shandong [9]. - **Futures prices and spreads**: On October 31, 2025, the caustic soda 05 contract increased by 0.12%, the 09 contract decreased by 0.16%, and the 01 contract decreased by 0.3%. The basis and spreads also showed corresponding changes [10]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: There are still expectations for downstream aluminum plants to stock up on caustic soda from November to December, which may boost the spot market [10]. - **Negative information**: Caustic soda production continues to recover, increasing supply pressure. Non - aluminum sectors have not shown concentrated restocking. The high price of liquid chlorine weakens cost support [13]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Whether liquid chlorine prices will continue to rise, which would further weaken the cost support for caustic soda. - Observe the mid - and downstream demand, especially whether non - aluminum sectors will show restocking signs. - Monitor whether inventory accumulation continues [13]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - The main 2601 contract of caustic soda showed low - level fluctuations this week, with the absolute price reaching a relatively low level for the year. This is mainly related to market sentiment and weak market conditions, as non - aluminum downstream restocking in the short - term fell short of expectations [14]. - **Basis and spread structure**: The spot market remained stable, with the 32% caustic soda from Shandong Jinling converted to the futures price at 2406 yuan/ton, with a premium of 95 - 100 yuan over the 01 contract. The spot market was weak, and the 12 - 01 spread was positive [16]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Profit valuation is moderately high. This week, the price of industrial salt remained stable, while the price of liquid chlorine was strong, resulting in high chlor - alkali profits. Currently, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu it is 200 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan). The current profit of caustic soda in Shandong is over 400 yuan/ton (including liquid chlorine) [21]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - In terms of exports, the CFR price in Southeast Asia increased by 5 US dollars week - on - week to around 460 US dollars, remaining generally stable. There is an expected substitution effect on overseas caustic soda demand, and the sustainability of exports needs to be observed [28]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Spot Data - **Caustic soda prices**: The report provides historical price trends of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and flake caustic soda in different regions, as well as price differentials between regions and grades, and spot - to - futures conversion prices [30][35][40]. - **External market prices**: It shows the historical price trends of caustic soda in international markets such as Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, the United States, and Western Europe [84]. 3.5.2 Supply Side - **Production losses**: It presents the seasonal trends of weekly and monthly production losses of caustic soda [93]. - **Liquid caustic soda production and operating rates**: The weekly and monthly production and operating rates of liquid caustic soda in different regions are provided, showing an overall upward trend in production and relatively stable operating rates [95][96]. - **Flake caustic soda production and operating rates**: The weekly production and operating rates of flake caustic soda in different regions are presented, with production and operating rates also showing certain trends [105]. 3.5.3 Demand Side - **Downstream product data**: It includes the spot price, cost, and profit of alumina, as well as the operating rates of downstream products such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, and viscose staple fiber [112][113]. - **Export structure**: The export structure of caustic soda by continent is shown [119]. 3.5.4 Inventory - **Liquid caustic soda inventory**: The weekly factory inventories of liquid caustic soda in different regions and the overall inventory trends are provided [121][124]. - **Flake caustic soda inventory**: The weekly factory inventories and total industry inventories of flake caustic soda in different regions are presented [140][142].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the caustic soda industry is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly fluctuate [3]. 2. Report's Core View - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight increase, while the futures price is continuously falling. Supply, demand, and macro - policies are neutral; inventory is on the high side; profit and valuation are on the low side; and the basis is neutral [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 26,000 tons to 830,000 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more of caustic soda was 81.4%, a 2.6% week - on - week decrease. Loads in various regions declined [3]. - **Demand**: Alumina production declined, non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry decreased to 88.61%, a 1.02% week - on - week decrease. The comprehensive startup rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 0.63% compared to before the holiday. The monthly startup rate of lithium hydroxide in June 2025 was about 49.27%, and the overall production was basically flat [3]. - **Inventory**: Recently, the shipment pressure increased, and caustic soda inventory accumulated. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more was 403,300 tons (wet tons), a 4.25% week - on - week decrease and a 13.83% year - on - year increase. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 23.09%, a 0.33% week - on - week decrease [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 93, and the futures price is at a discount [3]. - **Profit**: The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 337 yuan/ton, a 16% increase from last week. The overall chlor - alkali profit increased this week [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price is neutral, the absolute futures price is low, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3]. - **Macro - policy**: The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has subsided, and the futures market trades based on fundamentals [3]. - **Investment View**: The short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: There are no arbitrage or unilateral trading strategies at present [3]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market - The futures market fluctuated within a range. The spot price in Shandong was stable with a slight increase, and the futures price reached a new low. The subsidy for liquid chlorine decreased, its price rose to 50 yuan/ton, and the chlor - alkali profit remained high. After the holiday, demand improved slightly, and restocking demand increased. In the future, the new maintenance of alumina will increase, and the supply - demand of caustic soda will turn to be loose, so the spot price is expected to be stable with a slight decrease [7]. - The total open interest increased, and the far - month contracts added positions [25]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: As the summer peak electricity consumption season approaches, the electricity price stabilizes [33]. - **Upstream Production**: Production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly [36]. - **Main Production Area Output**: Maintenance in North China increased, and production decreased [39]. - **Chlor - alkali Comprehensive Profit**: The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit decreased [40]. - **Downstream Price**: The alumina price declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [43]. - **Alumina**: Alumina production recovered, and inventory accumulated. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new plants, the production rate of alumina in Henan increased significantly. The supply - demand balance of alumina was restored, inventory accumulated, port bauxite inventory decreased, and alumina profit was good and remained stable year - on - year [55][56][66]. - **Non - aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum production remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum entered the seasonal off - season, and production began to decline [67][68]. - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The production rate rebounded [75]. - **Subsequent Maintenance Information**: Multiple enterprises in different regions have maintenance plans in October and November [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the caustic soda industry is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to be mainly in an oscillatory state [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight increase, while the futures price continues to decline. Supply is affected by increased maintenance, leading to a slight decrease in production. Demand is in a seasonal off - peak, with insufficient resumption of non - aluminum demand. Inventory has increased, and the overall market situation is complex, with the short - term market expected to oscillate [3][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance increased, and production decreased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production decreased by 0.2 million tons to 83 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more of caustic soda was 84.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7%. In some regions, such as the Northwest and North China, the load decreased [3] - **Demand**: It is in the seasonal off - peak, with insufficient resumption of non - aluminum demand. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry decreased slightly, and the overall production of lithium hydroxide was basically flat after offsetting increases and decreases [3] - **Inventory**: The shipment pressure has increased recently, and caustic soda inventory has accumulated. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more has increased [3] - **Investment View**: The short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to oscillate [3] - **Trading Strategy**: There are no arbitrage or unilateral trading strategies at present. Attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and the global economic recession [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures**: The futures price of caustic soda in Shandong has declined significantly after the holiday. The spot price is stable with a slight increase. The profit of chlor - alkali is at a high level, and the factory's operating load is maintained at a high level. With the increase in new maintenance this week, production has decreased. Post - holiday demand has improved slightly, and the supply pressure of caustic soda is expected to ease [9] - **Spot**: The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight increase. The subsidy for liquid chlorine is low, and the price has dropped to - 50 yuan/ton. The profit of chlor - alkali is good [9] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: As the summer peak electricity consumption season approaches, the electricity price has stabilized [34] - **Upstream Production**: Production has decreased slightly, and inventory has decreased slightly [37] - **Main Production Area Output**: Maintenance in North China has increased, and production has decreased [40] - **Chlor - Alkali Comprehensive Profit**: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has decreased [41] - **Downstream Price**: The price of alumina has declined, and the non - aluminum price is weak [44] - **Alumina**: The start - up rate of alumina has recovered, and inventory has accumulated. The start - up rate of alumina in Henan has increased significantly due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices [56][57] - **Non - Aluminum Demand**: The start - up of non - aluminum industries is stable but lower than the same period last year. It has entered the seasonal off - peak, and the start - up rate has begun to decline [66][67] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The start - up rate has rebounded [74] - **Maintenance Plan**: Multiple enterprises in different regions have maintenance plans in September and October, which will affect the supply of caustic soda [77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - SH2601 fluctuated slightly, closing at 2,576 yuan/ton. The caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 1.8% week-on-week to 84.2% last week. The alumina开工率 decreased by 1.2% week-on-week to 84.38%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 1.08% week-on-week to 87.10%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 increased by 0.9% week-on-week to 65.63%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 2.17% week-on-week to 387,800 tons last week. One set of equipment in Central China and two sets in the Northwest are scheduled for maintenance this week, which may lead to a slight decline in capacity utilization. There are many maintenance plans for chlor-alkali plants in September, and the industry's supply pressure is expected to be relieved. Some alumina enterprises have short-term elastic production, but due to the considerable industry profits, the production enthusiasm of alumina enterprises is still high. Non-aluminum demand has a seasonal increase, and some previously shut-down plants have restarted. The inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda is not large, and attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory removal rhythm. In terms of spot, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is expected to remain stable or rise slightly in the short term. In terms of futures, the high-level of caustic soda warehouse receipts has decreased, but the fourth-quarter production capacity expectation still suppresses the futures price, and the main contract may continue to be at a discount. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2,530 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2,576 yuan/ton; the main contract open interest is 110,586 lots, an increase of 568 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is -8,561 lots, an increase of 4,574 lots; the main contract trading volume is 245,799 lots, a decrease of 16,050 lots; the closing price of the January contract is 2,576 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May contract is 2,670 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is 940 yuan/ton. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2,718.75 yuan/ton. The basis is 143 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan [1] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest is 210 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal is 641 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [1] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is -150 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is -200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [1] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,040 yuan/ton; the spot price of alumina is 3,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [1] 3.6 Industry News - From August 29 to September 4, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.2%, a week-on-week increase of 1.8%. As of September 4, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 387,800 tons (wet weight), a week-on-week increase of 2.17% and a year-on-year increase of 35.17% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - The caustic soda market is in a volatile situation. Near - term, the futures price has corrected due to near - month warehouse receipts and weak exports, but domestic demand is stable. The warehouse receipt issue is a short - term impact, and the quality of the peak season depends on export performance [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 01 contract futures price is 2670, the cheapest deliverable spot 32 - alkali price in Shandong is 870, the Shandong spot 32 - alkali converted to the futures price is 2719, and the basis is 49 [1] Spot News - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the liquid caustic soda price in Shandong remained stable today, with little price change. Attention should be paid to the delivery volume of major downstream industries [2] Market Condition Analysis - In the past week, the caustic soda futures price corrected, mainly due to near - month warehouse receipts (mostly from Zhejiang, posing high pressure on near - month long positions) and weak exports (sufficient supply in Southeast Asia, poor export signing, and weak 50 - alkali - 32 - alkali price difference). Domestic demand is stable, non - aluminum demand may improve in the peak season, alumina production is at a high level, and there is an expected new production capacity of 360 million tons in Guangxi at the end of this year, which may drive the circulation of domestic 50 - alkali [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]