Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The price of caustic soda futures has been rising, driven by a decline in supply and an increase in exports. The core driving logic is the significant fluctuation of crude oil prices leading to large - scale fluctuations in chemical futures prices, and chemical futures are affected by cost support, supply decline, and export increase. The conflict between the US and Iran has led to difficulties in ethylene exports from the Middle East, causing overseas PVC plants to reduce their loads, and domestic PVC enterprises that purchase ethylene externally have also reduced their loads, resulting in a passive reduction in the load of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises, which in turn has led to a significant increase in the export demand for domestic caustic soda. Although the price of high - concentration liquid caustic soda has risen significantly, the price of low - concentration liquid caustic soda remains relatively stable. There is a situation where the downstream has difficulty accepting high prices in chemical futures trading. It is expected that there will be a certain number of warehouse receipts, which will put pressure on the spot and futures markets. In the later stage, the logic of supply shortage and export volume increase still exists, but attention should be paid to the profit - taking of long positions and the basis regression when the overseas caustic soda procurement sentiment fades [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - **Supply**: In the week of 20260313 - 0319, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 83.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4%. The chlor - alkali load in North China and Central China declined, while in South China, the load increased due to the resumption of some previously overhauled equipment in Guangxi. In Southwest China, the local load declined because two new chlor - alkali equipment were put into trial operation without commercial output. It is estimated that the national chlor - alkali load will remain around 84% next week [5]. - **Demand**: As of March 19, 2026, the comprehensive startup rate in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 52.57%, a week - on - week increase of 2.42%. The startup rate in Shaoxing was 52.22%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.56%. The current dyeing factories are under the pressure of increased dyeing fees, and the downstream weaving's willingness to receive goods has weakened, leading to a market stalemate. The orders of dyeing factories are mainly "short - term and long - term less", and the proportion of long - term foreign trade orders continues to decline. Enterprises generally produce according to orders and stock up cautiously. The domestic market still has a rigid demand for spring and summer fabrics, but due to the high price of weaving raw materials and limited new orders, the bargaining space of dyeing factories has narrowed. It is expected that the startup rate of some small and medium - sized dyeing factories may decline at the end of the month, and the industry differentiation will intensify further [5]. - **Export**: From January to February, the export volume of caustic soda was 626,300 tons, including 480,500 tons of liquid caustic soda and 145,800 tons of flake caustic soda [5]. - **Inventory**: As of March 19, 2026, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 500,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 6.28% and a year - on - year increase of 20.22%. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in China this week was 28.02%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.39%. The storage capacity ratios of liquid caustic soda in the Northwest, North China, Central China, East China, and South China regions have all declined [5]. - **Profit**: This Friday, the average price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2,153 yuan/ton, the average price of liquid chlorine was 150 yuan/ton, and the chlor - alkali profit was 206 yuan/ton, which is at a historically low level. The weak performance of both chlorine and caustic soda has led to a low comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali [5]. 2. Price - **Shandong Chlor - Alkali Spot Price**: The report provides historical price data of Shandong 32% caustic soda minimum ex - factory converted to 100% price, the price difference between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda, Shandong liquid chlorine price, and Shandong 50% caustic soda minimum ex - factory converted to 100% price from 2023 to 2026 [7][8]. - **Flake Caustic Soda and Export Caustic Soda Price**: It shows the historical price data of Shandong flake caustic soda from 2023 to 2026 and the FOB price of caustic soda in East China from 2024 to 2026 [10][11]. - **Caustic Soda Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - Month Spread**: The report presents the historical price data of the main caustic soda futures contract, the basis of the main 32% caustic soda contract in Shandong, the basis of the main 50% caustic soda contract in Shandong, and the spread between SH04 - SH05 contracts from 2024 to 2026 [12][13]. - **Raw Salt and Coal Price**: It provides the historical price data of Shandong sea salt market price from 2022 to 2026, Shandong well - mine salt market price from 2024 to 2026, and Qinhuangdao steam coal closing price from 2022 to 2026 [15][16]. 3. Supply - **Caustic Soda Supply**: The report shows the historical data of China's weekly caustic soda production, caustic soda startup rate, caustic soda plant loss volume, and cumulative caustic soda production from 2022 to 2026 [18][19]. - **Caustic Soda Overhaul Situation**: This week, Hubei Yihua in Central China, Leshan Fuhua in Southwest China, and Fujian Huanyang in East China are undergoing overhauls. In the future, Kesai Chemical in Central China, Baililian in Central China, Shandong Jinmao in North China, Shanxi Yushe in North China, and Jiangsu Haixing in East China have overhaul plans [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda Inventory and Chlor - Alkali Profit**: It provides the historical data of China's sample enterprises' liquid caustic soda inventory, caustic soda futures warehouse receipt quantity, caustic soda futures warehouse receipt (dry tons), and Shandong chlor - alkali enterprise profit from 2022 to 2026 [23][24]. 4. Demand - **Alumina Industry**: The report shows the historical data of China's alumina production, Shandong alumina production, alumina production in Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan, alumina spot price in Shandong, Shandong alumina enterprise's liquid caustic soda purchase price, electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory, alumina plant's alumina inventory (excluding Xinjiang), and alumina in - transit inventory from 2022 to 2026 [27][28][30][31]. - **Textile Industry**: It presents the historical data of viscose staple fiber capacity utilization rate, East China viscose staple fiber market price, viscose staple fiber factory inventory, Chinese cotton yarn enterprise's viscose staple fiber inventory available days, Chinese textile enterprise's weekly startup rate, Chinese textile enterprise's order days, Chinese textile enterprise's in - factory finished product inventory available days, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang region's dyeing factory startup rate from 2022 to 2026 [33][34][36][37]. - **Pulp and Paper Industry**: The report shows the historical data of pulp production, paper product production, upstream factory's paper product inventory available days, and China's machine - made paper and cardboard cumulative production from 2021 to 2026 [38][39]. - **Export**: It provides the historical data of China's monthly liquid caustic soda export volume, monthly flake caustic soda export volume, cumulative caustic soda export volume, and monthly caustic soda export volume from 2021 to 2026 [41][42].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Although the domestic supply-demand contradiction is expected to improve, the futures premium is relatively large, and the short-term basis will converge. It is necessary to continuously track overseas device dynamics and China's export signing situation [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 05 contract futures price is 2442, the cheapest deliverable spot 32-alkali price in Shandong is 730, the spot 32-alkali in Shandong converted to the futures price is 2281, and the basis is -161 [1] Spot News - In Shandong, the inventory of 32-alkali in Zibo market is at a low level, the sales are okay, and the price continues to rise slightly. The Lunan market is supported by orders, and the price continues to increase. Other markets have stable overall transactions and stable prices. Some prices of high-strength alkali continue to rise supported by export orders [1] Market Condition Analysis - The futures premium of caustic soda is relatively large. With two weeks left until the 04 contract expires for delivery, the delivery issue of 32-alkali will suppress the market, so the short-term basis will converge. In the long term, if the situation in the Middle East has not improved by the end of March, the production cut of overseas refining enterprises will increase, and the production cut scale of domestic ethylene-based PVC will also increase significantly, leading to a passive production cut of caustic soda through the chlor-alkali balance mechanism. As a net exporter of caustic soda, the Middle East's long-term contract supply is hindered, which drives some overseas demand to turn to China and promotes the recent recovery of caustic soda exports [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of caustic soda futures has risen due to the dual drivers of supply decline and increased exports. The core driving logic is the significant fluctuations in crude oil prices leading to large - scale price fluctuations in chemical futures, which have a great impact on caustic soda futures. Additionally, the conflict between the US and Iran has made it difficult to transport ethylene from the Middle East, causing overseas PVC plants to reduce their loads, and some domestic PVC enterprises that purchase ethylene externally to also reduce their loads, resulting in a passive reduction in the load of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises. This has led to a substantial increase in the export demand for domestic caustic soda. At the same time, some factories have reduced production due to sudden failures, further reducing the supply. Moreover, some downstream industries of liquid chlorine have reduced their liquid chlorine procurement plans due to maintenance or an inability to accept high prices, leading to a significant drop in the price of liquid chlorine, which in turn provides an upward driving force for the price of liquid caustic soda. Looking ahead, with the decline in overseas caustic soda production and the reduction in domestic supply, the logic of supply shortage and export volume increase still exists. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the situation of long - position profit - taking and the regression of the basis when the overseas caustic soda procurement sentiment fades [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: In the week from March 6th to March 12th, 2026, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons or more was 85.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. The chlor - alkali loads in North China, Central China, and South China decreased significantly, driving the national chlor - alkali load to decline moderately. It is estimated that the national chlor - alkali load next week will be around 85%. The alumina production in this period was 1785,000 tons, a slight increase from the previous week. The production of viscose staple fiber was 92,000 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous week. As of March 12th, the physical inventory of viscose staple fiber factories was 147,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 15,500 tons [5]. - **Demand**: As of March 12th, 2026, the comprehensive startup rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 50.15%, a month - on - month increase of 7.69%. The startup rate in the Shaoxing region was 51.11%, an increase of 8.89% from the previous data but a year - on - year decrease of 13.33%. The startup and orders of dyeing factories show an obvious differentiation trend. Most dyeing factories have fully resumed work, but the order structure is differentiated. Some enterprises focusing on digital printing and differentiated products have sufficient orders and extended delivery times. The industry mostly purchases on - demand, and the overall order - receiving of dyeing factories shows a "short - term and long - term" structure, with intense competition for conventional products. In terms of dyeing fees, enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices, but the downstream acceptance is limited. The average startup rate of printing and dyeing enterprises in the Shengze region was 49.47%, an increase of 7.89% from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 12.11%. The terminal weaving industry is warming up slowly, and the domestic market and brand orders are mostly in a wait - and - see state. The rigid demand has been slightly released, mainly in small batches, and the large - scale orders are limited. In terms of foreign trade, due to unstable shipping factors, some brand and market orders have been placed, but the order volume is still significantly narrower than last year [5]. - **Export**: In December, the export volume of liquid caustic soda was 309,600 tons, and the export volume of flake caustic soda was 59,400 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of March 11th, 2026, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more in the country was 534,200 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 3.86% and a year - on - year increase of 19.15%. The capacity utilization ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises this week was 30.41%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33%. Except for the stable capacity utilization ratio in Central China and the increase in the Southwest, the capacity utilization ratios in the Northwest, Northeast, North China, East China, and South China decreased month - on - month [5]. - **Profit**: This Friday, the average price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2094 yuan/ton, the average price of liquid chlorine was 300 yuan/ton, and the chlor - alkali profit was 280 yuan/ton, which is at a historically low level. The strong chlorine and weak caustic soda situation has led to a low comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [5]. 3.2 Price - **Shandong Chlor - Alkali Spot Price**: The report presents the historical price trends of Shandong 32% caustic soda minimum ex - factory converted to 100% price, the price difference between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda, Shandong liquid chlorine price, and Shandong 50% caustic soda minimum ex - factory converted to 100% price from 2023 to 2026 [7][8]. - **Flake Caustic Soda and Export Caustic Soda Price**: It shows the historical price trends of Shandong flake caustic soda from 2023 to 2026 and the FOB price of caustic soda in East China from 2024 to 2026 [10][11]. - **Caustic Soda Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - Month Spread**: The report provides the historical price trends of the caustic soda main contract from 2024 to 2026, the basis of the 32% caustic soda main contract in Shandong region from 2024 to 2026, the basis of the 50% caustic soda main contract in Shandong region from 2024 to 2026, and the spread between the SH04 - SH05 contracts from 2024 - 2025 and 2025 - 2026 [12][13]. - **Raw Salt and Coal Price**: It shows the historical price trends of Shandong sea salt market price from 2022 to 2026, Shandong well - mine salt market price from 2024 to 2026, and Qinhuangdao steam - coal closing price from 2022 to 2026 [15][16]. 3.3 Supply - **Caustic Soda Supply**: The report presents the historical trends of China's weekly caustic soda production, caustic soda startup rate, caustic soda plant loss volume, and cumulative caustic soda production from 2022 to 2026 [18][19]. - **Caustic Soda Maintenance Situation**: This week, the Ganzhou Luoci in East China - Jiangxi resumed operation after a shutdown for maintenance from February 14th to March 3rd; the Jiangmen Guangyue in South China - Guangdong is under maintenance since February 24th, and the recovery time is to be determined. In the future, Hubei Yihua in Central China - Hubei plans to have maintenance from March 11th to the end of March; Jinling New Materials in North China - Shandong has a maintenance plan in March, with the specific time to be determined; Kesai Chemical in Central China - Hubei plans to shut down in early April for about 15 - 20 days; Baililian in Central China - Henan has a maintenance plan in April, with the specific time to be determined; Shandong Jinmao in North China - Shandong has a maintenance plan in April, with the specific time to be determined [22]. - **Caustic Soda Inventory and Chlor - Alkali Profit**: It shows the historical trends of China's sample enterprises' liquid caustic soda inventory (wet tons), caustic soda futures warehouse receipt quantity, caustic soda futures warehouse receipt (dry tons), and Shandong chlor - alkali enterprise profit from 2022 to 2026 [23][24]. 3.4 Demand - **Alumina Industry**: The report presents the historical trends of China's alumina production, Shandong alumina production, alumina production in the Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan regions, alumina spot price in Shandong, Shandong alumina enterprise liquid caustic soda procurement price, electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant alumina inventory (excluding Xinjiang), and alumina in - transit inventory from 2022 to 2026 [27][28][29][30]. - **Textile Industry**: It shows the historical trends of viscose staple fiber capacity utilization rate, East China viscose staple fiber market price, viscose staple fiber factory inventory, Chinese cotton yarn enterprise viscose staple fiber inventory available days, Chinese textile enterprise weekly startup rate, Chinese textile enterprise order days, Chinese textile enterprise in - factory finished product inventory available days, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang region printing and dyeing factory startup rate from 2022 to 2026 [31][32][34][35]. - **Pulp and Paper Industry**: The report presents the historical trends of pulp production, paper product production, upstream factory paper product inventory available days, and China's machine - made paper and cardboard monthly production from 2021 to 2026 [37][38]. - **Export**: It shows the historical trends of China's monthly liquid caustic soda export volume, monthly flake caustic soda export volume, cumulative caustic soda export volume, and monthly caustic soda export volume from 2021 to 2025 [39][40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]. 2. Report's Core View - The current situation of caustic soda is weak, but the future expectation is strong. Although the current high - inventory and weak - demand situation is difficult to reverse in the short term, the previous short - selling logic of caustic soda profit will be challenged later, and the far - month contracts may face cost increases and large - scale production cuts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - On February 4, 2026, the 03 - contract futures price of caustic soda was 1969. The cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 600, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 1875, and the basis was - 94 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - On February 3, taking the Shandong region as a benchmark, the price center of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong declined by 10 - 20, while the price of 50% liquid caustic soda increased moderately by 10 in some areas [2]. 3.3 Market Situation Analysis - The previous core logic of short - selling caustic soda profit was the strong performance of liquid chlorine and the decline in caustic soda cost, and manufacturers did not cut production as long as they were not at the cash - flow cost, resulting in a pattern of high production and high inventory. However, this logic will be challenged after April when the short - term strong pattern of liquid chlorine may not last [2]. - From the fundamental perspective, the high inventory of caustic soda makes the weak spot market difficult to reverse before the Spring Festival. In terms of demand, the oversupply of alumina has not changed in the short term, and the expectation of production cuts suppresses the stockpiling of caustic soda. Although there will be incremental demand from large - scale capacity expansion later, non - aluminum downstream industries face a seasonal decline in rigid demand and export pressure, so overall demand lacks support. On the supply side, winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, and manufacturers are unlikely to significantly reduce production until they incur losses at the cash - flow cost [2]. - Recently, the futures market is insensitive to spot price cuts, and the price cut of liquid chlorine will lead to a pattern of cost increases and large - scale production cuts in the far - month contracts [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The industry is expected to maintain a situation of high production and high inventory in the short - term. The SH2603 contract is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the range around 1900 - 2000. The 03 contract has limited room for rebound, while the 05 contract is stronger due to the trading of maintenance expectations. The spot supply and demand of liquid caustic soda remain loose, and the low profit of the alumina industry restricts procurement demand and increases the expectation of production cuts in the future. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 1951 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan. The main contract position is 263,142 lots, an increase of 328 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 29,970 lots, a decrease of 457 lots. The main contract trading volume is 621,860 lots, a decrease of 268,681 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2426 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan, and the May contract is 2213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 603 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 1884 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan. The basis is - 67 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 242.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 642 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 350 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina is 2555 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.6 Industry News - From January 16th to 22nd, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 87.7%, a 1.0% increase from the previous week. From January 17th to 23rd, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.65% to 85.18%. From January 16th to 22nd, the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 88.43%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 2.23% to 56.54%. As of January 22nd, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 509,600 tons (wet tons), a 0.49% decrease from the previous period and a 105.77% increase year - on - year. From January 16th to 22nd, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 209 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the caustic soda industry is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly fluctuate [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market shows a situation where spot prices are stable with a downward trend, and the futures market has a slight rebound. Supply and demand factors are both neutral, inventory is bearish, profit is bearish, and valuation is bullish. Overall, the short - term market is expected to oscillate [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.8 tons to 85 tons, and the average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons and above of caustic soda was 86.0%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%. Next week, domestic chlor - alkali equipment maintenance and restart will coexist, and the overall startup is expected to move slightly upward [3]. - **Demand**: Alumina start - up declined, and non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 87.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.59%. The comprehensive start - up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 61.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77% [3]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons and above was 442,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 4.83% and a year - on - year increase of 39.57%. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 27.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.08%. Warehouse inventories in the central and eastern regions decreased [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 49, with the futures price at a premium [3]. - **Profit**: During the period, raw material and auxiliary material costs were stable, energy costs decreased, and the theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased. The caustic soda price increased, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine decreased, and the overall chlor - alkali profit decreased. The average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was - 61 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 26% [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price is at a low level, the absolute futures price is low, and the near - month contract has a slight premium [3]. - **Macro Policy**: There is currently no relevant macro - policy impact [3]. - **Investment View**: The short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: There are no suggestions for unilateral trading and arbitrage. Key risks to watch include changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and the global economic recession [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The spot market in Shandong was weak this week, and the futures market had weak support at the bottom. The price of liquid chlorine was higher than in the first half of the year, first falling and then rising, fluctuating around 200 yuan/ton. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit was close to the break - even line. The 32% caustic soda price was stable with a downward trend, and the high - concentration caustic soda had not yet stabilized. Downstream demand was weak, and the overall performance of the Shandong market was still poor. There were expectations of price cuts for alumina procurement in Shanxi and Henan [6]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Upstream**: Coal supply is tight, and electricity prices are rising. The upstream production capacity utilization rate remains at a high level, and inventory is being depleted. In the main production areas, maintenance in North China has decreased, and production has increased. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit has declined [31][34][37]. - **Downstream**: Alumina prices have declined, and non - aluminum prices are weak. Alumina production has recovered, and inventory has increased. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new plants, the alumina start - up rate in Henan has significantly increased. Non - aluminum demand has entered a seasonal off - season, and start - up rates are declining. The start - up rate of liquid chlorine downstream has rebounded [42][54][67].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Near - term, the rebound of caustic soda is restricted, with contracts 2601 and 2602 having limited continuous rebound space due to factors like high production, high inventory, and negative feedback from the alumina industry. However, far - month contracts are undervalued and have long - allocation value with cost support, but significant price increases require large - scale supply - side maintenance or production cuts [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - On December 24, the Shandong market was divided. The eastern part had stable prices with low inventory pressure, while the western part faced poor sales and low prices due to reduced external demand. The 01 - contract futures price was 2250, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong was 710, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2219, and the basis was - 31 [2]. 3.2 Market Condition Analysis - The rebound of caustic soda is driven by near - term capital shifting and expected supply cuts next year. But in terms of fundamentals, caustic soda will have high production and high inventory around the Spring Festival. Demand is weak due to low alumina profits and seasonal decline in non - aluminum downstream demand and export pressure. Supply is under pressure as winter is a low - maintenance season for chlor - alkali enterprises. Near - term contracts are suppressed by warehouse receipts, while far - term contracts are undervalued but need supply - side changes for significant price increases [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being integers from - 2 to 2 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the short - term market has no obvious drivers, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of caustic soda is falling, and the futures market is fluctuating weakly. Supply, demand, and macro - policies are neutral, while inventory, profit, and valuation are bearish [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.8 million tons to 84 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.0%, a week - on - week increase of 1.0%. Loads in North, Central, and East China increased [3]. - **Demand**: Alumina production declined, non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 91.29%, unchanged from last week. The comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 64.46%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07% [3]. - **Inventory**: Due to weak downstream demand and poor receiving enthusiasm, caustic soda inventory increased. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 504,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 7.43% and a year - on - year increase of 79.32% [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 87, and the futures price is at a discount [3]. - **Profit**: The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 13 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 46%. The theoretical production cost of caustic soda increased, and the overall chlor - alkali profit decreased [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price is at a low level, and the absolute futures price is relatively low. The near - month contract is slightly at a discount [3]. - **Macro - policy**: The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has subsided, and the market trades based on fundamentals [3]. - **Investment View**: The short - term market has no obvious drivers, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: No unilateral or arbitrage strategies are recommended currently. Pay attention to changes in liquid chlorine prices, reserve policies, and the global economic recession [3]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: This week, Shandong's spot market was weak, and the futures market had weak bottom support. The liquid chlorine price was higher than in the first half of the year and increased this week, fluctuating around 200 yuan/ton. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit was close to the break - even line. The spot price is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine and the alumina production schedule [9]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of caustic soda continued to fall and has not yet stabilized. Due to the "buy on rising" psychology, demand is difficult to increase [9]. - **Open Interest**: The total open interest increased, and the far - month contracts saw an increase in positions [25]. 3.3 Fundamental Data of Caustic Soda Supply and Demand - **Electricity Price**: Coal supply was tight, and electricity prices rose [33]. - **Device Loss and Capacity Utilization**: The device loss and capacity utilization data are presented in a chart, and the overall capacity utilization rate showed certain trends [36]. - **Production in Main Producing Areas**: Maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased. The production data of different regions in different years are presented in a chart [38]. - **Chlor - alkali Profit**: The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit decreased [39]. - **Downstream Prices**: Alumina prices declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [42]. - **Alumina**: Alumina production recovered, and inventory increased. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the production rate of alumina in Henan increased significantly. The supply - demand balance of alumina was restored, and inventory increased. The inventory of bauxite at ports decreased, and alumina profit was good and remained stable year - on - year [54][65]. - **Non - aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum production remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. The non - aluminum industry entered a seasonal off - season, and production began to decline [66]. - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The production rate rebounded [74]. - **Subsequent Maintenance Information**: Multiple enterprises in different regions have maintenance plans, including full - stop, half - load, and planned maintenance at different times [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for caustic soda is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current caustic soda market shows a situation where spot prices are declining and the futures market is oscillating weakly. The supply side has seen an increase in production due to reduced maintenance, while the demand side has a decline in alumina production and weak non - aluminum demand. Inventory has been accumulating, and profits are under pressure, resulting in an overall market with no clear short - term driving force, expected to be mainly oscillating [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.8 tons to 84 tons. The average utilization rate of the production capacity of sample enterprises with a caustic soda capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 85.0%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4%. Loads in North China, Central China, and East China all increased [3] - **Demand**: Alumina production decreased, and non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 91.29%, a week - on - week increase of 1.20%. The comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 65.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02% [3] - **Inventory**: Recently, downstream demand was weak, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods was poor, leading to an accumulation of caustic soda inventory. Factory inventory was 469,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 87.95%. The storage capacity ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 29.10%, a week - on - week increase of 2.01% [3] - **Basis**: The basis of the current main contract was around 57, and the futures price was at a discount [3] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 62 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70%. The price of liquid chlorine was stable, while the price of caustic soda decreased, resulting in a decline in overall chlor - alkali profits [3] - **Valuation**: The spot price was neutral, and the absolute futures price was low. The near - month contract was near par [3] - **Macroeconomic Policy**: The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector subsided, and the futures market traded based on fundamentals [3] - **Investment View**: In the short term, there was no clear driving force for the futures market, which was expected to mainly oscillate [3] - **Trading Strategy**: There were no unilateral or arbitrage trading strategies recommended for the time being [3] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: The Shandong spot market was weak this week, and the bottom support of the futures market was weak. In the short term, with less future maintenance and the impact of new production capacity, supply pressure increased. Alumina production continued to decline, and the procurement rhythm of caustic soda slowed down, leading to an increase in factory inventory pressure. Spot prices were expected to decline in an oscillating manner [6] - **Position**: The total open interest increased, and the far - month contracts saw an increase in positions [24] 3.3 Fundamental Supply and Demand Data of Caustic Soda - **Electricity Price**: Coal supply was tight, leading to an increase in electricity prices [32] - **Device Loss and Production**: The loss of devices decreased, and production in North China increased due to reduced maintenance [35][37] - **Chlor - Alkali Profit**: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali decreased [38] - **Downstream Price**: The price of alumina declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [41] - **Alumina**: The production of alumina recovered, but inventory accumulated. The supply - demand balance of alumina improved, port bauxite inventory decreased, and alumina profits were good and stable year - on - year [53][64] - **Non - Aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum production remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum demand entered the seasonal off - season, and production began to decline [65][66] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The production rate of the liquid chlorine downstream industry rebounded [73] - **Subsequent Maintenance Information**: Multiple enterprises in East China, Central China, and Southwest China had maintenance plans from November 2025 to January 2026 [77]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of caustic soda has limited changes and will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. The price center of caustic soda is expected to decline in the later stage. The current and expected supply - demand patterns contrast significantly. The upstream has production and inventory strategies. Demand is weakening, and as winter approaches, the upstream's active de - stocking pressure may impact the spot market. Attention can be paid to the rebound of the futures market [2][4]. - Different market participants are recommended different hedging strategies. For example, producers can buy put options and sell call options for inventory management; traders can sell put options and buy call options for procurement and inventory management; end - customers can buy call options to prevent price increases when purchasing and buy put options to protect inventory value [2]. - Key data to monitor include the commissioning of downstream alumina plants, the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream industries on the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, the maintenance status of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises, and the marginal changes in caustic soda factory inventories [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Price - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications such as 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The price of low - concentration caustic soda in the region weakened week - on - week. In Shandong, the average market price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda decreased from 807 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2521.875 yuan/dry ton) at the beginning of the week to 801 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2512.5 yuan/dry ton) at the weekend. The supply in Shandong was relatively sufficient, and the demand from alumina enterprises had a suppressing effect on the market [11]. 2. Price Difference 2.1 Model Price Difference - The price differences between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shaanxi, as well as between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, showed different trends. The data showed fluctuations over time [29]. 2.2 Regional Price Difference - The price differences of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda between different regions (such as Jiangsu - Shandong, Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong) were presented, and the data updated daily [29][33][39]. 3. Supply - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national production capacity. This week, the domestic caustic soda output is expected to be 877,810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 367 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic liquid caustic soda enterprises is 88.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.40%. There were fewer maintenance arrangements in the chlor - alkali market this week, and the overall supply increased [40]. - The operating rates and outputs of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda were presented with weekly data. Some chlor - alkali enterprises had maintenance, resumption, or planned maintenance, which affected the production volume. For example, some enterprises in Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong, etc. had maintenance or resumed production, and some enterprises in Xinjiang, Shandong had planned maintenance [41][45][48]. 4. Downstream Demand - Alumina: The supply of alumina decreased slightly this week due to maintenance in Guangxi and Shanxi. As of November 13, China's alumina production capacity was 118 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.9 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.54% [55]. - Viscose staple fiber: The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry from November 7 - 13, 2025, was 89.50%, a decrease of 0.1% compared to last week [55]. - Printing and dyeing industry: As of November 13, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%. The overall operating rate of dyeing factories was polarized, with large - scale factories maintaining over 60% and small - and medium - sized factories generally dropping to around 50%. Orders were insufficient [55]. 5. Inventory - As of November 14, 2025, the domestic liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 254,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.04%. The domestic flake caustic soda factory inventory was 37,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.81%. The market demand did not improve significantly, and the inventory of some factories increased [74]. 6. Valuation - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. The domestic industrial salt market price remained stable this week, and the thermal coal market price increased slightly. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the spot market weakened compared to last week [78][79]. 7. Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - Information on the prices, capacity utilization rates, and production profits of PVC, propylene oxide, and epichlorohydrin was presented, including their historical data and update frequencies [87][96].