Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both upward and downward pressures on various sectors, including real estate, consumer goods, and trade dynamics, while also addressing the implications of recent policy changes and international trade negotiations. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index slightly declined to 4.82% as of October 26, down 0.42 points from the previous week [3][10] - Retail sales of passenger cars saw a significant drop, with a year-on-year decrease of 9% as of October 26, compared to a previous decline of 3% [3][15] - Real estate sales also worsened, with a year-on-year decrease of 33% in the last week of October across 67 cities [3][15] Group 2: Price Trends - Prices for real estate and new energy products rebounded, with rebar prices in Shanghai reaching 3210 CNY per ton, up 0.6%, and iron ore prices increasing by 1.9% to 107.7 USD per ton [2][40] - The national cement price index rose by 0.2%, while industrial silicon and polysilicon futures saw increases of 1.5% and 7.8%, respectively [2][40] Group 3: Trade Dynamics - Container throughput at ports decreased by 8.2% as of October 26, indicating a slowdown in trade activity [3][26] - The number of vessels from China to the U.S. dropped significantly, down 30.4% year-on-year in the first half of November [3][26] - However, potential re-export trade remains resilient, with a 6.5% increase in vessel calls at major ASEAN ports in October [3][27] Group 4: Policy and Financial Measures - The Chinese government has fully deployed 500 billion CNY in new policy financial tools, supporting over 2300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion CNY [6][45] - Recent U.S.-China trade talks resulted in a one-year extension of the trade truce, with the U.S. canceling certain tariffs on Chinese goods [5][28] Group 5: Infrastructure and Production - Infrastructure activity showed signs of decline, with cement dispatch rates falling to 37.4% as of October 24, down 1% from the previous week [3][18] - The operating rate of asphalt plants also decreased, averaging 31% in the last two weeks of October [3][18] Group 6: Consumer Behavior - Service consumption, such as subway ridership, showed slight recovery, with a 0.7% increase in the last week of October compared to the previous year [3][13] - Non-durable goods consumption growth slowed, with express delivery volume growth dropping to 6.4% year-on-year as of October 26 [3][15]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Zhaotong City is gradually stabilizing, supported by government policies aimed at enhancing housing quality and meeting diverse housing needs [2][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - In 2024, Zhaotong City completed real estate investments of 8.568 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.7%, and the sales area of commercial housing was 1.3965 million square meters, down 23.1% year-on-year [6]. - The area of land sold for ordinary commercial housing in 2024 was 694.2 hectares, an increase of 182% compared to the previous year, with the sale price reaching 1.524 billion yuan, up 70% year-on-year [7]. - The average selling price of commercial housing in Zhaotong City in 2024 was 5,158 yuan per square meter, a slight decrease of 0.21% year-on-year [8]. Group 2: Sales and Inventory - The total available area of commercial housing for sale in 2024 was 4.4329 million square meters, with a de-inventory cycle of 32 months [9]. - In 2024, a total of 13,420 units were sold, amounting to 1.573 million square meters, with 12,062 units sold to buyers from within the province [10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In the first quarter of 2025, real estate investment in Zhaotong City achieved positive growth, totaling 1.839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.5% [11]. - The area of land sold for ordinary commercial housing in the first quarter was 78.5 hectares, a year-on-year increase of 183.39%, with a sale price of 205.016 million yuan, up 150.79% [12]. - The average selling price of commercial housing in the first quarter was 5,266 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year increase of 1.27% [14]. Group 4: Policy Measures - The government is focusing on a dual-track supply system of "market + guarantee," expanding the supply of affordable housing and encouraging the development of high-quality housing products [18][19]. - A mechanism linking "people, housing, land, and finance" is being established to optimize housing supply based on population trends and urbanization rates [20]. - The government aims to enhance the quality of housing and community development, promoting a shift from quantity to quality in real estate [25].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 2 、商品房住宅销售仍偏弱。 我们统计的 67 个城市， 3 月前四周，地产成交较去年 -6.8% 。 2 月全月同比 +3% 。 3 、贸易：国内高频量价齐跌。量， 3 月 16 日当周，我国监测港口集装箱吞吐量环比 -3.3% ，前值 +9.6% ；四周累计同比为 16.5% ，高于 1-2 月八周累计同比 10.3% 。 价 ， 3 月 21 日，上海出口集装箱运价综合 指数环比 -2.0% ，前值 -8.1% 。欧洲、北美、南美航线运价均回落。 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 景气向上 1 、华创宏观 WEI 指数有所回升： 截至 3 月 23 日，该指数为 5.16% ，较 3 月 16 日上行 0.76% 。同 9 月 底相比，同比增速仍然回升的分项涉及：基建（沥青开工率）、服务消费（电影票房）、耐用品消费（乘 用车批零）、地产（商品房成交面积）、工业生产（钢厂线材产量、秦皇岛煤炭吞吐量）。 同 9 月底相 比，同比增速持平甚至回落的分项涉及 ：外需（ BDI ）、工业生产（ PT ...