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乐鑫科技(688018):动态报告:端侧智能化赋能,品牌+2D2B模式共建生态飞轮
Minsheng Securities· 2025-08-13 10:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, considering its unique position as one of the few SoC companies with a developer ecosystem and the expected benefits from the expansion of the edge AI hardware market [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the trend of edge intelligence, having developed a robust developer ecosystem over the years, which has created a competitive moat [1][2]. - The B2D2B business model is central to the company's growth strategy, focusing on reducing developers' learning and time costs, thereby locking in application ecosystems and enhancing customer stickiness [2][19]. - The company has entered a high growth phase, with revenue expected to increase significantly due to the rising demand for AI terminal products starting in 2024 [1][10]. Summary by Sections Developer Ecosystem and Market Position - The company has established itself as an AIoT ecosystem player, benefiting from the long-tail market's demand for intelligent solutions, with revenue entering a high growth phase from 2024 [1][10]. - The development of the ecosystem can be divided into two phases: the construction phase from 2016Q1 to 2023Q1, and the harvesting phase from 2023Q1 to 2025Q2, where the daily project growth on GitHub increased from 45 to 123 [1][14][15]. Business Model and Competitive Advantage - The B2D2B model allows the company to sell a complete set of development tools rather than just chips, creating a strong competitive advantage through developer engagement and community support [2][19]. - The brand value and technical advantages underpin the company's open ecosystem, with the ESP32 brand recognized for reliability and performance, attracting more developers and customers [2][29]. Financial Forecast and Performance Metrics - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.59 billion, 7.18 billion, and 9.00 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 43, 34, and 27 [3][4][51]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 2,007 million yuan in 2024 to 4,298 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 23.4% [4][53].