摘要 生猪产业从周期性转向价值投资，不再依赖猪价波动，而是关注龙头企 业通过成本控制、价值提升和海外扩张实现的持续增长，预示着行业整 合和龙头企业盈利能力增强。 宠物食品行业维持增长态势，但竞争加剧，龙头企业市场份额加速提升。 品牌高端化和把握抖音等新兴电商渠道是破局关键，行业集中度提升将 带来投资机会。 饲料企业积极拓展海外市场，尤其在东南亚、非洲和南美等地，凭借技 术、管理和服务优势实现增长，海外市场潜力巨大，为饲料企业带来新 的增长点。 智能农业装备领域"机器换人"趋势加速，无人机、机器人和 AI 技术融 合降低成本，解决农村劳动力短缺问题，智能农业装备产业链迎来发展 机遇。 宠物医疗行业连锁化率提升空间大，龙头企业通过股权激励和分级诊疗 模式提升竞争力，行业集中化进程加速，利好具有竞争优势的连锁品牌。 动保行业国产替代加速，尤其在宠物疫苗领域，国产猫三联疫苗打破进 口垄断。企业加大 mRNA 疫苗等前沿技术研发，提升核心竞争力。 玉米市场供需平衡表边际改善，库存消费比下降，预计价格回暖趋势延 续。大豆市场供给压力有所缓解，南美产量预期将影响未来价格走势。 Q&A 请简要回顾 2025 年的农业板块投资 ...

行业产能去化动力持续增强，去化速度或加快。我国养猪行业产能近期略有下降，总体处于近年来较高 水平。据统计局数据，截至9月末，全国能繁母猪存栏4035万头，较上月末少3万头，较去年末高点少37 万头。行业连续10周亏损，且近期处于中度亏损状态。上周末，主产区自繁自养头均亏损135元，较前 一周多亏21元。 草根调研来看，由于前期全国大部地区雨水较往年同期明显增多，不利于非瘟疫情防控，养殖业所面临 的疫情风险上升。自6月份以来，相关部门密集召开会议释放减产能的明确政策信号，政策方面值得重 点关注。我国养猪业目前面临着"市场价格下跌+疫情风险上升+政策施压"的三重压力，行业去产能动 力预计将逐渐增强。 太平洋证券发布研报称，养猪行业连续10周亏损，且近期处于中度亏损状态。上周末，主产区自繁自养 头均亏损135元，较前一周多亏21元。由于前期全国大部地区雨水较往年同期明显增多，不利于非瘟疫 情防控，养殖业所面临的疫情风险上升。自6月份以来，相关部门密集召开会议释放减产能的明确政策 信号，政策方面值得重点关注。我国养猪业目前面临着"市场价格下跌+疫情风险上升+政策施压"的三 重压力，行业去产能动力预计将逐渐增强。 太平 ...

Group 1: Swine Industry - The swine industry in China is currently facing three pressures: declining market prices, rising epidemic risks, and policy guidance, leading to an increased motivation for capacity reduction [1][2] - As of the end of September, the number of breeding sows in China was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month and 370,000 from the peak at the end of last year [2] - The average price of live pigs was 11.91 yuan/kg, down 0.58 yuan from the previous week, while the average price of piglets increased to 23.62 yuan/kg, up 0.48 yuan [1][2] Group 2: Poultry Industry - The price of broiler chickens is currently fluctuating at low levels, with the average price of broiler chickens at 3.53 yuan/kg, while the average price of white feather broiler chickens is 13.8 yuan/kg [3] - The poultry industry is experiencing high production capacity, with the number of breeding chickens at historical highs, leading to increased supply and potential price stabilization in the medium term [3] - The yellow chicken prices have been relatively high due to seasonal demand recovery, with prices for Wen's yellow chicken at 13.33 yuan/kg and Lihua yellow chicken at 12.58 yuan/kg [4] Group 3: Animal Health Industry - The animal health industry has seen a recovery in market conditions since the beginning of the year, with major companies expected to report positive third-quarter results [6] - Prices for key antibiotics have remained high, with products like Tiamulin and Tylosin showing price increases compared to the first quarter [6] - There is a notable increase in sales of domestic cat trivalent vaccines, indicating growth potential in the market as domestic alternatives become more prevalent [6]

Core Viewpoint - The vaccine industry is showing significant growth in the first three quarters of the year, with various vaccine types, including circular, diarrhea, brucellosis, and cat trivalent vaccines, continuing to perform well [1][2] Vaccine Batch Issuance - In the first three quarters, most vaccine types have seen substantial year-on-year growth, with specific increases in pig vaccines such as foot-and-mouth disease (+9.1%), circular vaccine (+29.5%), pseudorabies vaccine (+27.0%), and swine fever vaccine (+17.7%) [1] - Poultry vaccines like avian influenza trivalent vaccine (+9.6%) and Newcastle disease vaccine (+12.4%) also showed stable growth, while brucellosis vaccine experienced a remarkable increase of +60.2% [1][2] - Pet vaccines, particularly domestic rabies vaccine (+22.8%) and domestic cat trivalent vaccine (+74.4%), have maintained high growth rates [1] Factors Driving Growth - The growth in pig vaccines is attributed to multiple factors, including farming profitability, increased pig slaughter rates, and the introduction of new products [2] - The poultry vaccine sector continues to grow steadily, while the brucellosis vaccine benefits from the ongoing launch of new products [2] Veterinary Drug Raw Materials - As of October 22, the Veterinary Pharmaceutical Index (VPI) stands at 69.29, reflecting a 0.1% increase from the end of September and a 6.4% increase year-on-year [3] - The VPI index has shown a positive trend in October, with an average of 69.33, marking a 0.9% increase from September [3][4] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The price of veterinary raw materials has been on the rise due to tightened supply and increased demand from large orders, particularly for products like tylosin [4] - The overall price increase in veterinary raw materials is driven by a combination of cost factors, corporate strategies, and market demand [4] Investment Recommendations - The industry is gradually recovering from a downturn, with a focus on undervalued companies that exhibit both elasticity and certainty [5] - Companies that have shown strong performance typically possess innovative qualities in product development, marketing strategies, or capital operations [6] - Recommended companies for investment include Ruipu Biological (300119.SZ), Kexin Biological (688526.SH), and others [6]

Investment Rating - The overall industry investment rating is "Positive" [48] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the impact of anti-involution policies on capacity regulation, which is beneficial for the livestock industry [6][22] - The agricultural sector has shown strong performance, with the agricultural index rising by 3.61% compared to the broader market indices [27] - The report highlights the long-term investment value of companies in the livestock sector, as their valuations are at historical lows [23] Summary by Relevant Sections Livestock Industry - **Swine**: The national average price for live pigs is 14.12 CNY/kg, down 0.15 CNY from last week. The average price for 15 kg piglets is 33.86 CNY/kg, down 0.17 CNY [6][22] - **Poultry**: The average price for white feather broilers is 3.35 CNY/lb, up 0.15 CNY from last week. The average price for white chickens is 13.7 CNY/kg, up 0.3 CNY [9][22] - **Yellow Chickens**: The average price for yellow chickens is 9.79 CNY/kg, down 0.88 CNY from last month. The industry is experiencing a rise in production capacity [10][25] - **Animal Health**: The animal health industry is recovering from a low point, with significant performance improvements noted in major companies [11][25] Planting Industry - **Seed Industry**: Policies are continuously improving, and the commercialization of genetically modified technology is accelerating, which is expected to boost sales and prices for quality seed companies [12][26] - **Planting**: Grain prices are experiencing short-term adjustments, with corn averaging 2441 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY from last week, while wheat is at 2442 CNY/ton, up 1 CNY [13][26] Recommended Companies - **Buy Ratings**: - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. [4] - Muyuan Foods [4] - Suqian Agricultural Development [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market shows strong upward momentum, with a focus on sectors such as hydropower construction, rare earths, and military industry [4][8] - The total market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is 6,846.04 billion, with a PE ratio of 12.65 and a PB ratio of 1.31 [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index has a total market capitalization of 2,382.45 billion, with a PE ratio of 21.24 and a PB ratio of 2.25 [3] Economic Insights - In the first half of 2025, China attracted foreign investment of 423.23 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.2% [20] - The number of small and medium-sized enterprises in Hunan Province has surpassed 2.13 million, an increase of 156,200 compared to the same period last year [48] Industry Dynamics - The clinical trial for the African swine fever subunit vaccine has been approved, marking a significant step towards commercialization [31] - The first domestic cat trivalent vaccine has received approval for new veterinary drug registration, indicating progress in domestic pet health products [33] - The lithium battery industry in China saw a shipment volume increase of over 40% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a total shipment of 776 GWh [37][39] Company Updates - Sanqi Interactive Entertainment has appointed Zeng Kaitian as the new general manager, indicating a leadership change within the company [43][44] - Feiwo Technology has initiated its first share buyback, repurchasing 50,000 shares as part of its stock incentive plan [45][46]

Core Insights - The "pet economy" is rapidly growing in China, with the number of pets expected to exceed 120 million by 2024, leading to a market size surpassing 300 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [1][4] - Hefei is positioning itself as a "pet-friendly city" and aims to enhance its pet economy through a three-year action plan targeting a market scale of over 5 billion yuan by 2027 [2][4][7] - The city is leveraging its agricultural advantages to integrate pet economy development with rural revitalization, aiming to create a unique model that connects urban and rural resources [4][6] Industry Development - Hefei's government has recognized the pet economy as a significant new sector within modern agriculture, with strategic goals set for industry growth and innovation [7][10] - The city has established a complete industrial chain with over 50,900 pet-related enterprises, focusing on areas such as pet food, medical care, and grooming services [10][11] - Hefei is also investing in high-tech areas like smart wearables and vaccine development, aiming to transition from manufacturing to intelligent manufacturing [6][12] Challenges and Opportunities - Despite Hefei's strong momentum, it faces challenges in scaling up compared to leading cities like Shenzhen, which has a pet industry exceeding 10 billion yuan [15][16] - The local pet economy's service sectors, such as medical and insurance, are still fragmented, and there is a need for better integration with e-commerce and tourism [15][16] - Hefei must also address the lag in industry standards and attract high-end talent to ensure sustainable growth in the pet economy [13][16] Future Directions - Hefei can focus on climbing the value chain by advancing in precision pet healthcare and smart equipment [17] - The city should aim to establish industry standards and enhance cross-regional collaboration to expand its market influence [17] - Creating pet-friendly spaces and improving public services can help position Hefei as a unique city that balances technology with a warm lifestyle [18]

Investment Rating - The overall industry investment rating is "Positive" for planting, livestock, and agricultural product processing sectors, while "Neutral" for forestry and fishery sectors [2]. Core Views - Recent grain price increases indicate a potential bottoming out of the planting industry chain, while livestock prices remain low with potential for high-level capacity adjustments. The importance of domestic agricultural supply is highlighted by tariff countermeasures, suggesting a favorable policy environment for industry development [20][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Livestock Industry Chain - **Pork**: Production capacity growth has stagnated, with the sector's valuation at a historical low, indicating long-term investment opportunities. The average price of pork is 14.82 CNY/kg, down 0.02 CNY from last week. The demand is expected to weaken in the short term, leading to a potential weak fluctuation in pork prices [5][20]. - **Poultry**: Chicken prices are fluctuating, with the average price for white feather broilers at 3.75 CNY/jin, up 0.02 CNY from last week. The industry faces high production levels, but potential price increases may occur due to reduced imports from the U.S. following tariff impositions [9][21]. - **Yellow Chicken**: Prices are expected to rise as supply tightens and consumption recovers, with prices for yellow chicken at 11.2 CNY/kg, up 0.51 CNY from last month [10][23]. - **Animal Health**: The industry shows signs of recovery, with improved performance in Q1. The introduction of domestic vaccines is expected to drive growth in the sector [11][23]. 2. Planting Industry Chain - **Seed Industry**: The focus on food security is leading to improved policies for the seed industry, with expectations for transgenic technology to accelerate. The performance of leading companies is expected to improve as valuations are currently low [12][24]. - **Grain Prices**: Recent increases in grain prices, with corn at 2327 CNY/ton (up 30 CNY) and wheat at 2462 CNY/ton (up 10 CNY), suggest investment opportunities in the sector. The decline in grain imports in Q1 indicates a tightening supply [13][24]. 3. Recommended Companies and Ratings - **Companies with Buy Ratings**: Zhongchong Co., Muyuan Foods, and Suqian Agricultural Development are highlighted as recommended investments [3][52].

Investment Rating - The overall industry rating is positive, with expectations for higher returns compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [52]. Core Views - The agricultural product prices have shown a divergence recently, with grain prices continuing to rise while livestock prices have stabilized after an initial increase. The importance of domestic food security has been highlighted by tariff countermeasures, and the policy environment for industry development is expected to continue improving, indicating ongoing investment opportunities in the sector [5][18]. - The livestock industry chain is experiencing stagnation in production capacity growth, with the valuation of the sector at a low point, suggesting long-term investment opportunities. The average price of live pigs is currently 14.95 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week [5][19]. - The poultry sector is witnessing fluctuations in chicken prices, with the average price for white feather broilers at 3.73 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from last week. The industry is advised to monitor the impacts of avian influenza and tariff countermeasures [21][20]. Summary by Sections Livestock Industry Chain - **Pork**: The production capacity growth has stagnated, and the sector's valuation is at a historical low, indicating potential long-term investment value. The average price of live pigs is 14.95 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from last week [5][19]. - **Poultry**: The average price for white feather broilers is 3.73 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from last week. The industry is advised to monitor the impacts of avian influenza and tariff countermeasures [21][20]. - **Eggs**: The average price for yellow chickens has shown a slight increase, with prices at 10.69 yuan/kg for Lihua yellow chickens, up 0.32 yuan from last month [21]. Planting Industry Chain - **Seed Industry**: The recent announcement of 99 genetically modified corn and soybean varieties pending approval indicates a significant expansion in domestic GM crop varieties, which is expected to enhance agricultural production efficiency [22]. - **Grain Prices**: Recent increases in grain prices, with corn at 2291 yuan/ton and wheat at 2434 yuan/ton, suggest potential investment opportunities in the context of reduced imports and tariff measures against U.S. agricultural products [22][11]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (Buy) - Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. (Buy) - Suqian Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. (Buy) [3].