证券研究报告 | 2026年02月22日 2026年02月23日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（195） 优于大市 奶牛存栏节后有望维持去化，石化链涨价或带动橡胶价格 原奶：奶牛去化有望延续，原奶价格 2026 年或迎拐点。2026 年 2 月 5 日， 国内主产区原奶均价为 3.04 元/kg，周度环比持平，同比-2.56%。 周度农产品跟踪：年内肉奶周期有望共振反转，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。2026 年 2 月 14 日生猪价格 11.61 元/公斤，周环比-2.60%；7kg 仔猪价格约 357.14 元/头，周环比-0.13%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。2026 年 2 月 14 日，鸡苗价格 2.33 元/羽，周环比+18.27%；毛鸡价格 7.32 元/公斤，周环比+0.27%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。2026 年 2 月 10 日浙江快大 三黄鸡/青脚麻鸡/雪山草鸡斤价分别为 4.7/4.4/5.6 元，周环比分别 +2.17%/-6.38%/+0.00%。 豆粕：估值处于历史低位，关注潜在天气或贸易端催化。2026 年 2 月 ...

Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the agriculture industry is "Positive" [6][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of agricultural investment opportunities following the release of the central government's No. 1 document, which highlights the need for comprehensive capacity regulation in the pig farming industry [5][19]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in the livestock and planting sectors, particularly focusing on companies with low valuations and strong growth potential [6][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Livestock Industry - **Pig Farming**: The average price for pigs is 12.14 CNY/kg, a slight decrease of 0.16 CNY from the previous week. The average price for piglets is 29.24 CNY/kg, which increased by 0.62 CNY [5][19]. The industry is experiencing a gradual reduction in production capacity, with the number of breeding sows decreasing by 2.9% year-on-year [6][20]. - **Chicken Farming**: The average price for broiler chickens is 14 CNY/kg, reflecting a 0.3 CNY increase. However, the industry is facing challenges with profitability, as the average loss per chicken is 0.26 CNY [21][22]. The report suggests that chicken prices may remain volatile in the medium term due to high production levels [21][22]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies such as Zhongchong Co., Muyuan Foods, and Suqian Agricultural Development are rated as "Buy" due to their strong market positions and growth potential [3][10]. Planting Industry - **Seed Industry**: The No. 1 document promotes the industrialization of biotechnology in agriculture, which is expected to enhance the seed supply chain and improve the market environment for genetically modified crops [11][23]. The report gives a positive rating for the seed industry, highlighting the long-term investment value of leading companies [11][23]. - **Grain Prices**: Recent trends indicate that grain prices are likely to continue rising due to increased demand and reduced supply. The average price for corn is 2394 CNY/ton, and for wheat, it is 2531 CNY/ton, both showing slight increases [12][24]. The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the planting sector, particularly in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development [12][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [4] Core Views - The agricultural sector is expected to experience a cyclical recovery, particularly in the beef and dairy markets, driven by domestic and international demand [3] - The pig farming sector is anticipated to stabilize due to capacity control measures, benefiting leading companies with improved cash flow and cost advantages [3] - Poultry supply is expected to remain stable, with potential for increased cash flow returns for leading enterprises as demand recovers [3] - The feed industry is likely to see enhanced competitive advantages for leading companies due to deeper industrialization and specialization [3] - The pet industry is identified as a growth sector benefiting from demographic trends [3] Summary by Sections Livestock - Beef prices are expected to continue rising, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.20 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week and up 8.15% year-on-year [2] - Dairy cow depopulation is likely to accelerate, with raw milk prices expected to reach a turning point in 2026 [2] - The pig price on February 6, 2026, was 12.05 CNY/kg, down 1.31% week-on-week and down 20.67% year-on-year [13] Poultry - Chicken supply has slightly increased, with a focus on seasonal consumption recovery [13] - Egg prices in major production areas were 3.44 CNY/jin, up 6.83% week-on-week and up 19.44% year-on-year [13] Feed - Soybean meal prices are at historical lows, with potential catalysts from weather or trade factors [2] - Corn prices are expected to maintain a stable upward trend, with a current price of 2331 CNY/ton, down 0.09% week-on-week but up 8.52% year-on-year [2] Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - Recommended livestock companies include YouRan MuYe and Modern MuYe [3] - Recommended pig farming companies include HuaTong Co., DeKang Agriculture, and MuYuan Co. [3] - Recommended poultry companies include LiHua Co. and YiSheng Co. [3] - Recommended feed company is HaiDa Group [3] - Recommended pet company is GuaiBao Pet [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [1][4]. Core Insights - The livestock sector is expected to experience a cyclical recovery, with meat cattle and raw milk prices anticipated to rise due to domestic and international market conditions [3]. - The pig farming sector is supported by capacity control measures, which are likely to enhance cash flow for leading companies, positioning them as attractive investment opportunities [3]. - Poultry supply is expected to stabilize, with leading companies benefiting from demand recovery and higher cash flow returns [3]. - The feed industry is set to gain from deeper industrialization and clear division of labor, allowing leading companies to expand their competitive advantages [3]. - The pet industry is identified as a growth sector benefiting from demographic trends [3]. Summary by Sections Swine - As of January 23, 2026, the price of live pigs is 12.87 CNY/kg, up 1.42% week-on-week, while the price of 7kg piglets is approximately 343.33 CNY/head, up 11.09% week-on-week [1][13]. - The industry is witnessing a controlled reduction in production capacity, which is expected to support profitability for low-cost producers [13]. Poultry - The price of chicken seedlings is 1.63 CNY/bird, down 31.80% week-on-week, while the price of broilers is 7.34 CNY/kg, down 1.08% week-on-week [1][14]. - Supply is slightly increasing, and there is a focus on seasonal consumption recovery [3]. Beef - The price of fattened cattle is 25.66 CNY/kg, up 0.59% week-on-week, and the beef market price is 61.55 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week [2][14]. - A new round of price increases for beef is anticipated, indicating a potential upward trend in the beef cycle [2]. Raw Milk - The average price of raw milk is 3.03 CNY/kg, up 0.33% week-on-week, with expectations for a price turning point in 2026 [2][14]. - The reduction in dairy cow numbers is likely to continue, impacting supply dynamics [2]. Feed - The domestic soybean spot price is 4072 CNY/ton, stable week-on-week, while the soybean meal price is 3186 CNY/ton, up 0.31% week-on-week [2][14]. - The feed industry is expected to strengthen due to favorable supply-demand dynamics [2]. Corn - The domestic corn spot price is 2331 CNY/ton, up 0.30% week-on-week, with a tightening supply-demand balance expected to support moderate price increases [2][14]. Rubber - The price of natural rubber is 15900 CNY/ton, up 1.92% week-on-week, with a positive outlook for the mid-term market [2][14].

农业板块迎来行情催化，农发种业开盘10分钟内封死涨停，相关种业个股同步异动，板块整体表现活 跃。此次行情发酵源于两方面因素，一是农产品涨价预期逐步升温，生猪、大豆等品种价格出现波动上 行迹象；二是年度相关政策进入预热阶段，市场对产业支持政策落地抱有期待。 养殖产业链：涵盖生猪、白鸡、黄鸡等细分领域，生猪产业当前处于产能缓慢去化阶段，能繁母猪存栏 仍略高于正常保有量，冬季非洲猪瘟疫情防控压力上升，行业盈利随猪价短期反弹有所修复；白鸡祖代 引种量维持高位，商品代供给宽松，养殖环节保持微利；黄鸡产能处于历史低位，供给偏紧叠加消费旺 季需求支撑，养殖盈利保持稳定，立华股份、温氏股份等企业凭借成本优势占据市场份额。 本文源自：市场资讯 种植产业链：种业领域政策持续优化，转基因技术产业化稳步推进，优质种子产品迭代升级带动行业结 构调整；粮价受国际市场美联储降息、库消比下降及国内最低收购价政策支撑呈现上涨趋势，玉米、小 麦收购价格震荡上行，种植企业收益随粮价波动调整，苏垦农发等种植主体凭借规模化种植优势，收益 稳定性较强，中长期配置价值凸显。 作者：观察君 动保产业链：兽用化药领域，泰妙菌素、泰万菌素等产品价格处于高位震荡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural sector is experiencing a strong performance driven by rising price expectations and anticipation of policy announcements, particularly the "No. 1 Document" which typically influences market trends at the beginning of the year [2][5]. Group 1: Agricultural Sector Performance - As of January 30, the agricultural sector showed significant strength, with leading stocks like Nongfa Seed Industry hitting the daily limit, and other stocks such as Dunhuang Seed Industry and Denghai Seed Industry also achieving substantial gains [3][4]. - The overall performance of pig farming stocks has been better than the market average, indicating a positive trend in this segment [3]. Group 2: Price Trends and Influences - Recent price trends show a rebound in pig prices, reaching 12.97 yuan/kg, although the increase is limited due to declining slaughter rates [4][7]. - The agricultural sector is expected to benefit from rising prices of agricultural products as a result of the surge in commodity prices [6]. Group 3: Policy and Market Expectations - The "No. 1 Document" is anticipated to have a significant impact on the agricultural market, with expectations for policies that support rural revitalization and food security [5]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has emphasized the importance of the seed industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, aiming for major breakthroughs in seed industry revitalization [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The pig farming industry is facing challenges such as slow capacity reduction and rising pandemic risks, which may limit profitability despite current price increases [6]. - The chicken market shows a mixed outlook, with white chicken prices stabilizing while yellow chicken prices are expected to rise due to tight supply and seasonal demand [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural sector is experiencing a significant rally, driven by expectations of rising prices for agricultural products and anticipation of the annual "No. 1 Document" policy announcement [1][4]. Group 1: Agricultural Sector Performance - As of January 30, the agricultural sector showed strong performance, with leading stocks like Nongfa Seed Industry hitting the daily limit, and other stocks such as Dunhuang Seed Industry and Denghai Seed Industry also achieving significant gains [2][3]. - The overall trend in the agricultural sector is buoyed by rising prices across various commodities, including pork and cotton, with the price of live pigs rebounding to 12.97 yuan/kg [3][4]. Group 2: Price Trends and Influencing Factors - The price of live pigs is influenced by seasonal demand, epidemic control, and policy adjustments, while grain prices are supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic minimum purchase price policies [4][5]. - The agricultural sector is expected to benefit from advancements in genetically modified crops and supply-side reforms in the seed industry, with the "No. 1 Document" anticipated to further stimulate market expectations [4][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market anticipates that the surge in commodity prices will lead to a rebound in agricultural product prices, although there are concerns about the sustainability of this trend due to potential policy impacts and epidemic risks [5][6]. - The white chicken industry is facing high production capacity, while the yellow chicken sector is experiencing tighter supply, which may lead to price increases in the latter [5][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that while pig prices are rebounding during the peak season, the extent of the increase has narrowed due to ongoing capacity reduction in the pig farming industry, which is slowing down [1] - The pig farming industry is expected to continue capacity reduction under the pressures of rising epidemic risks and policy constraints [1] - The white chicken industry has a high capacity level, suggesting that chicken prices may continue to fluctuate in the medium term, while the yellow chicken industry is at historically low capacity levels, potentially leading to price increases [1] Group 2 - In the animal health sector, core antibiotic prices have recently experienced high-level fluctuations [1] - In the planting industry chain, grain prices of various types have recently increased, and are expected to trend upward in the medium term due to domestic and international factors, which will also support seed price increases [1] - The livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming, feed processing, and veterinary medicine to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [1]

Investment Rating - The overall industry investment rating is "Positive" for the planting and livestock sectors, "Neutral" for forestry and aquaculture, and "II" for agricultural product processing [7][8]. Core Insights - The pig price is experiencing a seasonal rebound, with the average price at 12.78 CNY/kg, a slight increase of 0.15 CNY from the previous week. However, the mid-term outlook remains pessimistic due to ongoing market pressures [6][23]. - The livestock industry is undergoing a capacity reduction, with the number of breeding sows decreasing to 39.90 million heads, down 1.1% month-on-month. This trend is expected to continue due to low market prices, rising epidemic risks, and policy pressures [7][24]. - The chicken industry is facing high capacity levels, with prices expected to fluctuate in the mid-term. The average price for broiler chickens is currently at 3.77 CNY/kg, reflecting a slight decrease [8][25]. - The yellow chicken market is anticipated to see price increases due to low production levels, with the average price at 12.95 CNY/kg [10][27]. - The veterinary medicine sector is experiencing a price rebound for key antibiotics, with a year-on-year increase of over 20% expected [11][27]. - The seed industry is benefiting from favorable policies and the advancement of genetically modified crops, which is expected to enhance sales and pricing for quality seed companies [13][28]. - Grain prices are projected to rise in the mid-term due to reduced imports and supportive domestic policies, with corn prices currently at 2369 CNY/ton [14][29]. Summary by Sections Livestock Industry - The average price for live pigs is 12.78 CNY/kg, with a slight increase of 0.15 CNY from last week. The average price for piglets is 25.14 CNY/kg, up 0.66 CNY [6][23]. - The operating rate of large-scale slaughterhouses is 38.58%, down 1.19 percentage points from last week [6][23]. - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.90 million heads, down 1.1% month-on-month, indicating a trend of capacity reduction [7][24]. Chicken Industry - The average price for broiler chickens is 3.77 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.03 CNY from last week [8][25]. - The industry is at a historically high capacity level, with prices expected to remain volatile in the mid-term [9][26]. - The yellow chicken market is expected to tighten supply, with prices likely to rise due to low production levels [10][27]. Veterinary Medicine - Key antibiotic prices are rebounding, with a year-on-year increase of over 20% expected [11][27]. - The market for veterinary vaccines is also growing, with increased sales anticipated for domestically produced vaccines [12][27]. Seed and Grain Industry - The seed industry is benefiting from favorable policies and advancements in genetically modified crops, which are expected to drive sales and pricing [13][28]. - Grain prices are projected to rise due to reduced imports and supportive domestic policies, with corn prices currently at 2369 CNY/ton [14][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [4] Core Views - The report highlights a bullish outlook on the livestock cycle, particularly for beef and raw milk, anticipating a reversal in the domestic beef cycle [3] - The report emphasizes that the official capacity control in the pig industry is expected to enhance cash flow for leading enterprises, positioning them as potential beneficiaries in a contracting industry [3] - The poultry sector is expected to benefit from limited supply fluctuations and a recovery in demand, with leading companies likely to achieve higher cash flow returns [3] - The feed sector is projected to see increased industrialization and specialization, allowing leading feed companies to widen their competitive advantages [3] - The pet industry is identified as a growing sector benefiting from demographic trends [3] Summary by Sections Livestock - Beef prices are on an upward trend, with the domestic fattened bull price at 25.66 CNY/kg, up 0.59% week-on-week and 9.38% year-on-year [2] - The average price of beef in the market is 61.55 CNY/kg, reflecting a 1.05% increase week-on-week and a 21.28% increase year-on-year [2] - Raw milk prices are expected to reach a turning point in 2026, with the average price at 3.02 CNY/kg, down 0.33% week-on-week and down 3.20% year-on-year [2] Swine - The pig price as of January 16, 2026, is 12.69 CNY/kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.44% [1] - The price of 7kg piglets is approximately 309.05 CNY/head, with a significant week-on-week increase of 22.00% [1] Poultry - The price of broiler chicks is stable at 3.07 CNY/chick, with no change week-on-week [1] - The price of broilers is 7.52 CNY/kg, reflecting a slight increase of 0.53% week-on-week [1] Feed - The domestic soybean price is 4072 CNY/ton, up 0.59% week-on-week, while soybean meal is priced at 3176 CNY/ton, down 0.44% week-on-week [2] - Corn prices are expected to maintain a moderate upward trend, with the current price at 2324 CNY/ton, up 0.52% week-on-week and 10.14% year-on-year [2] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the livestock sector include YouRan MuYe and Modern MuYe [3] - For swine, recommended companies are HuaTong Co., DeKang Agriculture, MuYuan Co., Wen's Food Group, TianKang Bio, and ShenNong Group [3] - In the poultry sector, recommended companies include LiHua Co., YiSheng Co., and ShengNong Development [3] - For feed, HaiDa Group is recommended [3] - In the pet sector, Guaibao Pet is highlighted as a potential investment [3]