行业产能去化动力持续增强，去化速度或加快。我国养猪行业产能近期略有下降，总体处于近年来较高 水平。据统计局数据，截至9月末，全国能繁母猪存栏4035万头，较上月末少3万头，较去年末高点少37 万头。行业连续10周亏损，且近期处于中度亏损状态。上周末，主产区自繁自养头均亏损135元，较前 一周多亏21元。 草根调研来看，由于前期全国大部地区雨水较往年同期明显增多，不利于非瘟疫情防控，养殖业所面临 的疫情风险上升。自6月份以来，相关部门密集召开会议释放减产能的明确政策信号，政策方面值得重 点关注。我国养猪业目前面临着"市场价格下跌+疫情风险上升+政策施压"的三重压力，行业去产能动 力预计将逐渐增强。 太平洋证券发布研报称，养猪行业连续10周亏损，且近期处于中度亏损状态。上周末，主产区自繁自养 头均亏损135元，较前一周多亏21元。由于前期全国大部地区雨水较往年同期明显增多，不利于非瘟疫 情防控，养殖业所面临的疫情风险上升。自6月份以来，相关部门密集召开会议释放减产能的明确政策 信号，政策方面值得重点关注。我国养猪业目前面临着"市场价格下跌+疫情风险上升+政策施压"的三 重压力，行业去产能动力预计将逐渐增强。 太平 ...

(1)本周猪价先抑后扬，整体小幅走低。周初多家集团场维持增量出栏节奏，价格整体承压。进入周中 后期，随着气温持续下降，终端基础消费有所回暖，同时南方部分区域的腌腊、灌肠等需求活动零星开 启，对猪肉消费形成提振，推动周后期猪价窄幅偏强运行。11月21日猪价11.62元/公斤，周环比-0.04元/ 公斤。 (2)本周生猪出栏均重继续回升。气温下降促使猪只日增重提升，加之集团场维持增量出栏节奏，共同 带动集团场均重回升；由于散养户及二次育肥户出栏积极性提高，市场中大体重猪源增多，进而推动散 养户均重增长。截至11月20日当周生猪出栏均重128.81kg，周环比+0.33kg。 展望后市，近期养殖已陷入亏损状态，叠加产能调控政策推进，行业产能去化预期增强，有望推动长期 猪价中枢上移，低成本优质猪企将获得超额收益。根据农业农村部数据，10月末全国能繁母猪存栏量降 至4000万头以下，较9月调减超35万头，去产能效果逐步显现。建议关注天康生物(002100.SZ)、牧原股 份(002714.SZ)、温氏股份(300498.SZ)、德康农牧(02419)等。 牧业 智通财经APP获悉，华福证券发布研报称，近期养殖已陷入亏损 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月17日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（182） 优于大市 肉牛价格有望持续上涨，奶牛产能或将去化加速 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。11 月 14 日生猪价格 11.73 元/ 公斤，周环比-1.5%；15kg 仔猪价格约 316.5 元/头，周环比+1%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。11 月 14 日，鸡苗价格 3.55 元/ 羽，周环比+3%；毛鸡价格 7.16 元/公斤，周环比+3%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。11 月 14 日浙江快大三黄鸡/ 青 脚 麻 鸡 / 雪 山 草 鸡 斤 价 分 别 为 4.1/5.0/7.8 元 ， 周 环 比 分 别 +0.0%/-2.0%/+0.0%。 鸡蛋：在产父母代存栏维持增长，中期供给压力较大。11 月 14 日，鸡蛋主 产区批发均价价 3.76 元/斤，周环比+2.31%，同比-27%。 肉牛：新一轮牛价上涨开启，看好 2025 年牛周期反转上行。11 月 14 日，牛 肉市场价为 66.63 元/kg，周环比-0.25%，同比+1 ...

Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is experiencing a favorable configuration opportunity due to accelerated breeding stock reduction driven by market and policy resonance, with current prices at a relatively low level [18][43]. - The beef industry is in a cyclical uptrend, with demand increasing and supply constraints expected to continue until 2027, making it a favorable time to invest in beef-related companies [18][51]. - The poultry sector is seeing improved investment logic as it enters a demand peak season, despite challenges from disease outbreaks and production capacity reductions [19][4]. Pig Farming - The supply pressure in pig farming is gradually increasing, leading to continued downward pressure on prices, with the national average price at 11.87 yuan/kg as of November 11, 2025, down 4.85 yuan/kg year-on-year [20][23]. - Policy measures are focused on reducing breeding stock, particularly among large enterprises, while smaller farms are expected to reduce stock due to losses and disease impacts [29][41]. - The current market conditions suggest a significant opportunity for investment in the pig farming sector, with recommended companies including Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [18][43]. Beef Industry - The beef supply is tightening, with a decrease in stock levels and an expected cyclical uptrend in demand, particularly as domestic beef consumption continues to rise [46][51]. - The average beef price in September 2025 was 70.52 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.36% [51]. - Recommended companies in the beef sector include Bright Dairy, Fucheng Co., and several Hong Kong-listed firms such as Modern Farming and China Shengmu [18][51]. Poultry Sector - The white chicken market is entering a peak demand season, with prices expected to rise due to reduced production capacity and increased demand [19][4]. - The supply of white feather chicken breeding stock is projected to decline, supporting a price increase for meat chickens in 2026 [19][4]. - Recommended companies in the poultry sector include Shennong Development and Hefeng Co. [19][4]. Seed Industry - The grain price cycle is at a low point, with expectations for upward trends supported by food security policies and the acceleration of genetically modified seed commercialization [19][5]. - Recommended companies in the seed industry include Dabeinong Technology, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds [19][5]. Pet Industry - The pet food export volume in China increased by 7.55% year-on-year from January to September 2025, indicating strong growth in the sector [19][7]. - Domestic pet consumption is expected to continue growing, driven by emotional value and increasing market share of domestic brands [19][7]. - Recommended companies in the pet sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [19][7].

Group 1: Swine Industry - The swine industry in China is currently facing three pressures: declining market prices, rising epidemic risks, and policy guidance, leading to an increased motivation for capacity reduction [1][2] - As of the end of September, the number of breeding sows in China was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month and 370,000 from the peak at the end of last year [2] - The average price of live pigs was 11.91 yuan/kg, down 0.58 yuan from the previous week, while the average price of piglets increased to 23.62 yuan/kg, up 0.48 yuan [1][2] Group 2: Poultry Industry - The price of broiler chickens is currently fluctuating at low levels, with the average price of broiler chickens at 3.53 yuan/kg, while the average price of white feather broiler chickens is 13.8 yuan/kg [3] - The poultry industry is experiencing high production capacity, with the number of breeding chickens at historical highs, leading to increased supply and potential price stabilization in the medium term [3] - The yellow chicken prices have been relatively high due to seasonal demand recovery, with prices for Wen's yellow chicken at 13.33 yuan/kg and Lihua yellow chicken at 12.58 yuan/kg [4] Group 3: Animal Health Industry - The animal health industry has seen a recovery in market conditions since the beginning of the year, with major companies expected to report positive third-quarter results [6] - Prices for key antibiotics have remained high, with products like Tiamulin and Tylosin showing price increases compared to the first quarter [6] - There is a notable increase in sales of domestic cat trivalent vaccines, indicating growth potential in the market as domestic alternatives become more prevalent [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [4]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the large cycle in animal husbandry by 2025, with domestic beef and raw milk markets expected to experience upward momentum [2]. - The pig farming sector is supported by anti-involution measures, which are likely to stabilize long-term prices [2]. - The pet consumption market is identified as a growing sector benefiting from demographic changes [2]. - The feed industry, particularly Haida Group, is expected to benefit from the recovery in aquaculture [2]. - The poultry sector is projected to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from improved domestic demand [2]. Summary by Sections Livestock - Pig prices as of November 7 are 11.91 CNY/kg, down 5% week-on-week; 15kg piglet prices are approximately 314 CNY/head, up 4% week-on-week [1]. - Beef prices are on the rise, with the market price at 66.80 CNY/kg, up 0.85% week-on-week and 22% year-on-year [1][2]. Dairy - The average price of raw milk in major production areas is 3.03 CNY/kg, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.01 CNY/kg and a year-on-year decline of 3.2% [2]. Feed - Domestic soybean prices are at 4012 CNY/ton, up 0.37% week-on-week, while soybean meal prices are at 3072 CNY/ton, up 0.85% week-on-week [2]. Poultry - White chicken prices are 6.95 CNY/kg, down 2% week-on-week, while yellow chicken prices are expected to benefit from improved domestic demand [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Livestock: Youran Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Guangming Meat [3]. - Pig farming: Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, and others [3]. - Pet industry: Guibao Pet and Reap Bio [3]. - Feed: Haida Group [3]. - Poultry: Lihua Co., Yisheng Co., and others [3].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [70]. Core Views - The report highlights ongoing supply pressure in the pig farming sector, leading to a downward trend in pig prices. As of November 7, the average pig price was 11.85 CNY/kg, down 0.69 CNY/kg week-on-week. The average weight of pigs sold has increased to 128.30 kg, up 0.61 kg week-on-week, indicating a shift towards heavier pigs being sold [2][10][30]. - In the beef sector, short-term prices are slightly declining, but a tightening supply is expected to lead to an upward price cycle for beef in 2026-2027. The price of calves as of November 7 was 31.93 CNY/kg, down 0.53% week-on-week, but up 32.43% year-to-date [3][32]. - The poultry sector is experiencing stable yet declining prices for meat chickens, with the average price for white feathered meat chickens at 7.09 CNY/kg as of November 7. The egg price is slightly up at 6.22 CNY/kg, indicating potential recovery in the egg market as downstream production decreases [4][40][45]. - The agricultural sector is seeing a strong performance in soybean meal prices due to changes in import tariffs on U.S. soybeans, with the spot price at 3094 CNY/ton, up 36 CNY/ton week-on-week. This is expected to support a strong trend in soybean meal prices moving forward [4][53]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Supply pressure continues, leading to a decline in pig prices. The average pig price as of November 7 is 11.85 CNY/kg, down 0.69 CNY/kg week-on-week. The average weight of pigs sold has increased to 128.30 kg, up 0.61 kg week-on-week [2][10][30]. - The report notes that the market is transitioning to sporadic replenishment as the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has decreased significantly [10][30]. Beef Industry - Short-term prices for beef are slightly declining, with calf prices at 31.93 CNY/kg, down 0.53% week-on-week, but up 32.43% year-to-date. The market is expected to tighten in the medium to long term, leading to a potential price increase cycle in 2026-2027 [3][32]. Poultry Sector - The average price for white feathered meat chickens is stable at 7.09 CNY/kg, while egg prices are slightly up at 6.22 CNY/kg. The report suggests that the poultry sector may benefit from a recovery in consumption as production decreases [4][40][45]. Agricultural Products - The soybean meal market is expected to remain strong due to tariff changes on U.S. soybeans, with current prices at 3094 CNY/ton, up 36 CNY/ton week-on-week. This is anticipated to support a bullish trend in soybean meal prices [4][53].

Core Viewpoint - The livestock industry experienced a decline in performance in Q3 2025, particularly in the pig farming sector, while the white chicken farming sector showed growth [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Summary - The pig farming sector generated revenue of 101.8 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.75% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.69% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company in the pig farming sector was 6 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 67.14% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 27.21% due to a drop in pig prices compared to the previous year [1]. - In contrast, the white chicken farming sector achieved revenue of 8.7 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.39% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.03% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company in the white chicken farming sector was 316 million yuan, benefiting from a recovery in chick prices [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side indicates that from April 2024, pig farming entered a profitable phase, with the breeding sow inventory gradually increasing. As of September 2025, the breeding sow inventory reached 40.35 million heads, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% [2]. - The total pig slaughter volume from January to September 2025 was 530 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.85%, with Q3 2025 slaughter volume reaching 164 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 4.72% [2]. - The average pig price in Q3 2025 dropped to 13.83 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 28.70% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.15% [2]. - Consumer demand showed fluctuations, with a decline in July and August due to hot weather, but a recovery in September driven by back-to-school and holiday preparations [2]. Group 3: Outlook and Policy Impact - The supply side outlook suggests continued growth in breeding sow capacity from H2 2024 to H1 2025, with expectations of production capacity reduction in the industry [3]. - Recent policies from the National Development and Reform Commission aim to control breeding sow inventory and restrict pig sales to curb speculative behavior, which may lead to a reduction in production capacity among leading farming enterprises [3]. - Demand is expected to increase in Q4 due to seasonal factors, but overall growth is anticipated to be limited, with potential further declines in pig prices post-Spring Festival [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The livestock ETF (159865), which has a "pig content" of approximately 60%, is recommended for investment, as it covers the entire pig farming industry chain [4]. - Despite short-term pressures on pig prices and farming profits, the potential for accelerated reduction in breeding sow inventory and improved supply-demand dynamics in 2026 is highlighted [4]. - The ETF has seen significant inflows, with its scale surpassing 8 billion yuan, reflecting growing investor interest amid industry fluctuations and policy expectations [4].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the swine industry is entering a de-stocking cycle, while the beef cattle sector continues to experience an upward trend in demand and pricing [2][3] Group 1: Swine Industry - The swine sector is witnessing accelerated de-stocking driven by policy and market dynamics, presenting a good opportunity for investment [3][43] - As of Q3 2025, China's pig output reached 530 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with pork production at 43.68 million tons, up 3.0% year-on-year [10][13] - The average price of pigs in October 2025 dropped to 10.84 yuan/kg, a significant decline of 40.28% year-on-year, marking a new low for the year [10][13] Group 2: Beef Cattle Industry - The beef cattle supply is contracting, with the cycle of demand expected to continue its upward trajectory until 2027 [4][49] - In Q3 2025, the number of beef cattle in China was 99.32 million heads, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, while beef production reached 5.5 million tons, up 3.3% year-on-year [49][51] - The average price of beef in September 2025 was 70.52 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.36% [59] Group 3: Poultry Industry - The white chicken sector is experiencing a gradual increase in demand, with the output of white feathered chickens expected to rise to 90.3 million heads in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [94][98] - The rolling update of grandparent stock for white feathered chickens is projected to decline, which will support an increase in chicken prices in 2026 [100] Group 4: Seed Industry - Grain prices are expected to stabilize and rise due to various factors, including U.S.-China tariff disturbances and climate impacts [6] - The commercialization of genetically modified crops is anticipated to accelerate, supported by an increase in the number of approved varieties [6] Group 5: Pet Industry - The pet food export volume in China increased by 7.55% year-on-year from January to September 2025, indicating strong performance from leading companies [7] - Domestic pet consumption is expected to grow due to increasing companionship demand and emotional value associated with pet ownership [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, with both domestic and international beef and raw milk markets expected to improve [4] - The pig industry is supported by a trend of "anti-involution," which is likely to stabilize long-term prices [4] - The pet consumption sector is identified as a growing industry benefiting from demographic changes [4] - The feed sector, particularly Haida Group, is expected to achieve excess returns due to the recovery in aquaculture [4] - The poultry sector is anticipated to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from domestic demand recovery [4] Summary by Sections Swine - As of October 24, the price of live pigs is 11.82 CNY/kg, up 6.01% week-on-week [2] - The price of 15kg piglets is approximately 17.66 CNY/kg, down 1.83% week-on-week [2] - The industry is experiencing orderly progress in "anti-involution," which is expected to support profitability [14] Poultry - The supply of white chickens has slightly increased, with a focus on seasonal consumption recovery [2] - As of October 24, the price of chicken seedlings is 3.36 CNY/piece, up 2.13% week-on-week [15] - The price of broilers is 6.88 CNY/kg, up 0.15% week-on-week [15] - Yellow chicken supply remains at a low level, with potential benefits from improved domestic demand [15] Beef - A new round of beef price increases has begun, with a positive outlook for the beef cycle reversal in 2025 [2] - As of October 24, the average price of beef is 66.61 CNY/kg, up 0.36% week-on-week [16] Raw Milk - The average price of raw milk in major production areas is 3.04 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but down 2.88% year-on-year [3] - The report anticipates an acceleration in the reduction of dairy cows in Q3, potentially leading to a price turning point by year-end [3] Soybean Meal - Short-term supply is expected to be ample, while medium to long-term supply and demand are projected to strengthen [3] - As of October 24, the domestic soybean spot price is 3997 CNY/ton, up 0.09% week-on-week, and soybean meal is 2984 CNY/ton, down 0.86% week-on-week [3] Corn - Domestic supply and demand balance is tightening, with prices expected to maintain moderate increases [3] - As of October 24, the domestic corn spot price is 2249 CNY/ton, down 0.64% week-on-week, but up 0.10% year-on-year [3] Sugar - Short-term imports are increasing, with attention on import rhythms and fluctuations in crude oil prices [3] - As of October 24, the spot price in Guangxi Nanning is 5750 CNY/ton, down 0.69% week-on-week [3] Rubber - Short-term prices are expected to stabilize, with a positive outlook for mid-term market conditions [3] - As of October 24, the price of Thai rubber is 1860 USD/ton, up 0.54% week-on-week [3]