山海：鲍威尔去留牵动市场，黄金难改震荡上行！ 国际原油周三意外下跌，破位66，但是可以看到，试探低点65.5后快速走出反弹，又站稳在66之上，当前收盘在66.7，所以，原油这波还 是受低点支撑看涨行情，只不过现在没有单边力度，而是走低位震荡。本周原油维持66做多看涨不变，上方看69，69不破就不过分看，69 破位再看72高点。 本周截止到目前为止，黄金上下的趋势震荡已经比较明显了，不管市场消息面怎么影响，目前黄金三次试探3375不破，两次试探3320不 破，可以断定，暂时黄金在3375/3320区间震荡，只要不破此区间，黄金难以走出单边力度。当然，周四，周五暂时来看，还是这个区间范 围，不破此区间，就做高空低多的交易即可。如果意外破位此区间，之前山海也讲过，上方可见3400，下方可见3285，不会又太大的延续 空间。从技术面来看，现在不管是日线周期，还是H4周期都是区间震荡的表现，不管是k线组合，还是布林收口，还是均线系统的粘合， 都没有涨跌的延续性变化，所以，这个周期尊重市场只能看区间范围就好，不过在这里还是要强调一点，大趋势是多头看法不变，尽量做 低多交易。对于日内行情而言，早盘黄金偏弱，又慢跌的可能性， ...

Group 1 - Gold has seen a continuous rise for three days, reaching the target of 3365, with a focus on maintaining a bullish outlook while waiting for pullbacks to enter long positions [2][4] - The ADP data released on Wednesday showed results close to expectations, which is seen as bullish for gold, but the market did not react strongly, indicating a cautious approach to trading [2][5] - The domestic gold market has also shown upward movement, with support levels identified at 775 for Shanghai gold and 766 for Rongtong gold, suggesting potential for further gains after adjustments [5][6] Group 2 - The US dollar index remains weak, which supports the bullish trend in gold, with expectations that if the upcoming non-farm payroll data is positive, gold could reach 3400 [4][5] - International silver has also performed well, reaching a high of 36.6, with a focus on maintaining a cautious bullish stance while waiting for non-farm data [6] - Crude oil has shown effective rebounds, with a current upward trend, and support identified at 64, indicating potential for further gains depending on market news [7]

Market Overview - The geopolitical situation has shifted dramatically with Trump's announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, leading to a decrease in market risk aversion [2][4] - Gold prices have experienced significant volatility, dropping from a high of 3394 to a low of 3333, reflecting a decline of over $60 [2][4] - The market sentiment around gold is currently mixed, with a focus on the key resistance level at 3405, which if not breached, suggests a range-bound trading environment [4] Gold and Silver Analysis - Gold opened at 3396 but faced a sharp decline due to the latest news, hitting a low of 3333, which is the lowest point since last week [4] - The effective support level for gold is at 3332, with potential further declines to 3280 if this level is breached [4] - Silver has shown resilience, maintaining support at 35.5, and is expected to rebound from this level, with a target of 37 for short positions [5][6] Domestic Market Insights - Domestic gold prices initially rose, with Shanghai gold reaching a high of 792, but subsequently fell back to the starting point due to market news [5] - The outlook for domestic gold remains bullish with a target of 800 for Shanghai gold and 795 for Rongtong gold, contingent on market performance this week [5] - Domestic silver has shown limited movement, with a focus on maintaining positions above 35.5 for potential rebounds [6] Oil Market Dynamics - International crude oil prices have dropped significantly to around 66 after peaking near 78, influenced by market news and risk sentiment [6] - The outlook for crude oil remains bullish, with expectations of a rebound towards 70, while domestic fuel oil is also expected to trend upwards after recent adjustments [6]

山海：地缘局势阴云笼罩，黄金涨跌需看情绪作用！ (以上文章由山海原创，转载请注明出处。山海温馨提示，投资有风险，入市需谨慎。以上仅代表山海个人观点，不作操作依据，据此操作风险自担） 国际白银上周很多人说山海的思路错了，说错了的朋友复盘看看现在走出来后的行情怎么走。山海上周强调了两个思路，第一在多头上涨走势中不要追空， 反而可以在高位尝试空，这里提示过36.5之上空，第二是回落到关键支撑短线做多，下方支撑在35.2，第一个思路做了空的，最低在35.5有短线利润，第二 个思路山海在周五也提示了35.5短线多单看到36，这两个思路，多空全部走抓到了利润。本周白银还是维持上周的看法不变，中长线高位布局空，短线支撑 继续多，空单布局考虑在37附近，短线多单考虑在35.5附近，按照这个思路交易的话本周依旧可以抓到中长线，短线利润。 国内白银上周扫盘，先跌后反弹，最低点在8680附近，山海在尾盘强调过，国内金大周可以尝试布局高空，8900看到8700，8700反手做短线多单看到8800， 那么，现在可以复盘看到，这两波利润基本全部抓到。早盘沪银最高刚好在8800附近。本周沪银交易维持上周思路不变，中长线还是等待8900之上 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the recent CPI data being unfavorable for gold and silver, the market has responded positively, leading to an upward trend in gold prices, with significant price increases observed throughout the week [1][2] - Gold has shown a consistent pattern of reaching new highs after each adjustment, with recent prices hitting 3365, indicating a bullish sentiment and aligning with the strategy proposed by the analyst [1][2] - The expected upward target for gold this week is set at 3400, with a potential profit of 100 USD from the current positions, suggesting a strong bullish trend [2] Group 2 - Domestic gold futures (沪金) have shown a significant upward movement, with the opening price expected around 792, and previous positions at 772 and 765 yielding substantial profits [3] - The international silver market has experienced fluctuations, with a recent high of 36.9 and a subsequent drop to 35.9, but remains strong overall, suggesting a cautious approach to trading [3] - Domestic silver has seen a temporary high at 9050, but the market remains uncertain about a definitive top, recommending a wait-and-see approach [4] Group 3 - International crude oil prices have surged to 69.2, achieving a second target of 68, with expectations for further increases to 72 and 74.5, indicating a strong bullish trend [4] - Domestic fuel oil has also broken above 2800, with previous positions recommended to be held, as the outlook remains bullish towards 3000 [4]

Group 1 - The international geopolitical situation has intensified, leading to a surge in safe-haven demand for gold, which reached a high of 3438, surpassing the expected target of 3420 for the week [2][4] - After reaching the peak of 3438, gold experienced a significant drop, indicating potential volatility and the possibility of a downward trend, with support levels to watch [4][5] - The U.S. dollar index showed little change, fluctuating around 99.3, suggesting a lack of strong trend direction, while gold's recent performance indicates a potential for both upward and downward movements [4][5] Group 2 - Domestic gold prices also saw an increase, with the Shanghai gold contract peaking at 813, but subsequently faced a decline, indicating a potential for high-level fluctuations in the near term [5][6] - International silver reached a high of 33.2, with expectations for further increases, although recent adjustments suggest a cautious approach to new positions [5][6] - The international crude oil market is showing signs of a rebound, with potential upward targets set at 64 or higher, indicating a shift from previous declines [6]

操作策略： 1.黄金建议回调3368-3371区域做多，止损在3361，目标看3390-3420，破位3435的话上方看3450-3465. 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉 快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投资有风险，盈亏自负。 国内黄金ETF持仓一季度累计增持23.47吨（较2023年末增长10.8%），显示机构投资者对黄金长期配置价值的认可，但野村证券提示需警惕短期技术性回调 风险：其一，SPDR黄金ETF（GLD）资金流呈现"大进大出"特征，3月净流入超20亿美元后4月净流出超15亿美元，资金博弈加剧；其二，技术指标显示金 价偏离200日均线超25%（布林带上轨外扩），RSI指标进入80以上超买区间，若后续无重大地缘事件催化，可能面临"均值回归"压力。此外COMEX黄金投 机净多头头寸降至14个月新低（截至5月3日当周为11.7万手），显示市场对美联储鹰派政策预期的定价已较为充分，但需警惕"多头拥挤度"下降后的反向波 动风险。 昨日黄金市场延续多头攻势，早盘以3335.8美元/盎 ...