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山海:消息面主导黄金涨跌,但趋势还是维持多头不变!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-24 03:57
Market Overview - The geopolitical situation has shifted dramatically with Trump's announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, leading to a decrease in market risk aversion [2][4] - Gold prices have experienced significant volatility, dropping from a high of 3394 to a low of 3333, reflecting a decline of over $60 [2][4] - The market sentiment around gold is currently mixed, with a focus on the key resistance level at 3405, which if not breached, suggests a range-bound trading environment [4] Gold and Silver Analysis - Gold opened at 3396 but faced a sharp decline due to the latest news, hitting a low of 3333, which is the lowest point since last week [4] - The effective support level for gold is at 3332, with potential further declines to 3280 if this level is breached [4] - Silver has shown resilience, maintaining support at 35.5, and is expected to rebound from this level, with a target of 37 for short positions [5][6] Domestic Market Insights - Domestic gold prices initially rose, with Shanghai gold reaching a high of 792, but subsequently fell back to the starting point due to market news [5] - The outlook for domestic gold remains bullish with a target of 800 for Shanghai gold and 795 for Rongtong gold, contingent on market performance this week [5] - Domestic silver has shown limited movement, with a focus on maintaining positions above 35.5 for potential rebounds [6] Oil Market Dynamics - International crude oil prices have dropped significantly to around 66 after peaking near 78, influenced by market news and risk sentiment [6] - The outlook for crude oil remains bullish, with expectations of a rebound towards 70, while domestic fuel oil is also expected to trend upwards after recent adjustments [6]
山海:地缘局势阴云笼罩,黄金涨跌需看情绪作用!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-23 02:27
Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing volatility influenced by geopolitical tensions and mixed messages from the U.S., leading to fluctuations in gold and silver prices. Investors are advised to adopt a short-term trading strategy rather than focusing on single-direction trends [2][4]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have shown significant fluctuations, with a recent high of 3396 and a low of 3358. The trading range for this week is identified between 3405 and 3340, indicating that a break below 3340 could lead to further declines towards 3280, while a break above 3405 could push prices up to 3430 and 3465 [4]. - The overall trend for gold remains bullish, but the market is currently in a consolidation phase, suggesting that traders should focus on short-term gains rather than long positions [5]. Silver Market Analysis - The silver market is also experiencing a similar trend, with a focus on short-term trading strategies. Key support is noted at 35.2, while resistance is at 37. The strategy involves maintaining long positions at lower levels while considering short positions at higher levels [6]. - Domestic silver prices have shown a rebound after a drop, with a recent high around 8800. The trading strategy suggests waiting for a potential short position above 8900 while looking for buying opportunities around 8700 [6]. Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market has seen a significant increase, currently trading around 77.8. The bullish trend is expected to continue, with potential targets set at 80 and 84.5. Traders are advised to look for buying opportunities on pullbacks without attempting to short the market [7]. - Domestic fuel oil has also shown strong bullish momentum, with a recent high of 3255. The support level is identified at 3120, and traders are encouraged to buy on dips while maintaining a bullish outlook [7]. Market Outlook - The global financial market is anticipated to face multiple tests this week, with key economic indicators and central bank speeches likely to influence market volatility. Investors are advised to remain vigilant and closely monitor these developments for potential trading opportunities [2][4].
山海:数据后黄金走出预期大涨,尾盘还有高度出现!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-11 23:34
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the recent CPI data being unfavorable for gold and silver, the market has responded positively, leading to an upward trend in gold prices, with significant price increases observed throughout the week [1][2] - Gold has shown a consistent pattern of reaching new highs after each adjustment, with recent prices hitting 3365, indicating a bullish sentiment and aligning with the strategy proposed by the analyst [1][2] - The expected upward target for gold this week is set at 3400, with a potential profit of 100 USD from the current positions, suggesting a strong bullish trend [2] Group 2 - Domestic gold futures (沪金) have shown a significant upward movement, with the opening price expected around 792, and previous positions at 772 and 765 yielding substantial profits [3] - The international silver market has experienced fluctuations, with a recent high of 36.9 and a subsequent drop to 35.9, but remains strong overall, suggesting a cautious approach to trading [3] - Domestic silver has seen a temporary high at 9050, but the market remains uncertain about a definitive top, recommending a wait-and-see approach [4] Group 3 - International crude oil prices have surged to 69.2, achieving a second target of 68, with expectations for further increases to 72 and 74.5, indicating a strong bullish trend [4] - Domestic fuel oil has also broken above 2800, with previous positions recommended to be held, as the outlook remains bullish towards 3000 [4]
山海:金银上涨力度达到预期,周期内不过分追高
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-03 03:01
Group 1 - Gold and silver have shown upward trends, with gold reaching 3392 and silver at 34.7, indicating a bullish market outlook [2][4] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to significantly impact gold and silver prices, leading to increased market volatility [4][5] - The technical analysis suggests that gold may face resistance around 3400, and traders are advised to wait for potential pullbacks before entering new long positions [4][5] Group 2 - Domestic gold has been on a bullish trend, with recent highs at 792 for Shanghai gold and 783 for Rongtong gold, suggesting further upward potential [5] - Silver has reached its target of 34.7, but there are concerns about a potential peak, with a possible downward adjustment if it falls below 34 [6] - International crude oil is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with support at 60 and potential upward movement towards 66 and 68 [7] Group 3 - Domestic fuel has shown strong performance, with recent highs at 2770, and the overall trend remains bullish with potential targets of 2800 and 3000 [8]
山海:黄金强弱势均力敌,但主体保持多头趋势不变!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-30 02:40
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that despite early declines, gold is expected to rebound, with a strong bullish trend anticipated as it stabilizes above 3280 [2][4] - Gold experienced a significant upward movement, reaching a peak of approximately 3330, reflecting a total increase of nearly 90 USD [4] - The analysis suggests that gold may continue to rise, with potential targets set at 3350 and possibly up to 3360 or 3400 [4][5] Group 2 - Domestic gold opened lower but is expected to provide buying opportunities, with predictions of further increases, particularly for futures contracts [5][6] - The international silver market is characterized by a bullish trend within a range of 32.5 to 34, with successful trades noted at key support levels [5][6] - Crude oil has shown a bullish trend after confirming a level around 60, with expectations of reaching up to 63, contingent on maintaining above the 60 mark [6][7] Group 3 - Domestic fuel oil has shown volatility, with a recent peak at 2770, but is now in a consolidation phase, suggesting a cautious approach to trading until a clearer direction emerges [7]
山海:国际影响因素较大,黄金强弱难解难分!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-12 02:20
Core Viewpoint - The international factors significantly influence the gold market, leading to frequent fluctuations in its strength and weakness, making it difficult to predict trends [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market experienced a significant drop of $50 at the opening, while silver returned to the support level around 32 [3]. - The dollar index showed an upward trend, stabilizing above 100, which may lead to further increases, potentially reaching 120 [5]. - Gold is expected to fluctuate between $3,200 and $3,400, with a strong bullish trend as long as it remains above $3,260 [5][6]. - The trading strategy should focus on effective long and short trades within key support and resistance levels, particularly around $3,260 and $3,245 [6]. Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - International silver prices are expected to remain strong as long as they stay above $32, with a trading range between $32 and $33.5 [6]. - Domestic silver is also experiencing minor fluctuations, maintaining a high-level oscillation, with support at 8,200 and resistance at 8,350 [7]. Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market has shown a strong upward trend, with prices reaching a high of $61.5, and is expected to continue rising towards $64 and $66 [7]. - The domestic fuel market has also seen an increase, with prices rising to 2,675, and the strategy remains to hold long positions with targets at 2,700 and 2,800 [8].
山海:市场因素影响较大,黄金关注多空延续性!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 02:33
Group 1 - The recent fluctuations in the market have significantly impacted gold prices, with a notable drop to 3288 due to the announcement of the UK-US trade agreement, leading to a decrease in safe-haven demand [2][4] - Despite the recent volatility, the overall trend for gold remains bullish, with expectations of high-level fluctuations and potential for a rebound on Friday [2][4] - Silver is maintaining a position above 32, indicating potential for upward movement, although patience is required for traders [2][5] Group 2 - The US dollar index has unexpectedly risen, breaking the 100 mark, which could influence gold prices negatively if the dollar continues to strengthen [4] - Technical analysis suggests that gold may experience further declines, with potential support levels at 3260 and 3200, but a reversal could occur if the price rebounds on Friday [4] - Domestic gold trading is currently characterized by short-term strategies, with a focus on quick trades rather than long-term positions due to market instability [5][6] Group 3 - Domestic silver has shown significant volatility, with a recent drop below 8200 but recovering to close above that level, indicating a high-level consolidation phase [6] - International crude oil has risen to approximately 60.2, with expectations for further upward movement if the resistance at 60.5 is broken [6] - The domestic fuel oil market is also showing an upward trend, with expectations for prices to reach 2700 and 2800 in the near term [6]
山海:黄金多空均有表现,但主力还是多头趋势!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 02:00
Group 1 - The international geopolitical situation has intensified, leading to a surge in safe-haven demand for gold, which reached a high of 3438, surpassing the expected target of 3420 for the week [2][4] - After reaching the peak of 3438, gold experienced a significant drop, indicating potential volatility and the possibility of a downward trend, with support levels to watch [4][5] - The U.S. dollar index showed little change, fluctuating around 99.3, suggesting a lack of strong trend direction, while gold's recent performance indicates a potential for both upward and downward movements [4][5] Group 2 - Domestic gold prices also saw an increase, with the Shanghai gold contract peaking at 813, but subsequently faced a decline, indicating a potential for high-level fluctuations in the near term [5][6] - International silver reached a high of 33.2, with expectations for further increases, although recent adjustments suggest a cautious approach to new positions [5][6] - The international crude oil market is showing signs of a rebound, with potential upward targets set at 64 or higher, indicating a shift from previous declines [6]
山海:期待市场有效刺激,黄金会走出上涨空间!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-30 01:37
Group 1 - The current market for gold is characterized by a range-bound trading pattern, with fluctuations in daily price movements but no clear direction [2][4] - The gold price is currently oscillating between 3260 and 3370, with a notable resistance at 3370 and support levels at 3300 and 3270 [4][5] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to influence market dynamics, potentially expanding the current trading range for gold [5] Group 2 - The US dollar index is experiencing slight fluctuations, with a recent rebound ending and a potential for further decline if it fails to break above 100 [4] - International silver has shown an upward trend, reaching a high of 33.7, with support at 32.5 and potential resistance around 34.3 to 34.5 [5][6] - Domestic silver trading has seen a successful short-term strategy, with profits realized before the holiday, and a recommendation to maintain a cautious stance until after the holiday [6] Group 3 - International crude oil has shown weakness, breaking below the 61.5 support level, with expectations of further declines towards 56 [6] - Domestic fuel oil is experiencing minor declines, with a potential for a V-shaped recovery, suggesting a buying opportunity around 2950 if adjustments occur [6]