山海：黄金出现大扫盘，但趋势不变还是多！ 上个交易日讲过，美元指数在97.5附近会走出反弹，至少能去一下100，至于能不能连续上涨则要看后市表现，经过周二的变化，美元上涨至99.3附近，完 全符合预期，那么，今天就关注美元是否能去100之上，如果破位100之上这波美元就有可能见底，后市有连涨空间，但基于现在还是弱势，不能过分看涨 美元，所以今天也有二次下跌空间。对于黄金的暴涨暴跌走势，这里不做过多的评论，市场的运行有自己的逻辑，尊重市场才是最勇敢的面对方式。近期 山海一直强调，黄金在极限上涨中，有较大的风险，周期都自顶部背离，日线随时都有暴跌空间，周二就走出了这个力度，当然，交易其实并不好做，逆 势做空压力很大，顺势做多难给关键点，所以，近期行情能走出利润就很厉害了。当然顺势是最佳方式，但也不能追多，只能等待回来多。经过周二的大 跌，现在可以确定3500是暂时的高点，短期内就看3500的得失，山海偏向难以在本周继续破位，但是要注意的是，暂时黄金的多头趋势并没有改变，周三 还有可能会继续走出上涨空间，上方关注3425，3450，所以，在趋势之下，还是要找做多的点位，等上涨的力度。从技术面来看，日线虽然收阴，吞没 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold has entered an extreme upward trend, rising over $200 from $3283 to around $3450, with significant daily increases [2][5] - The market is characterized by emotional trading, making it difficult to identify entry points for trades, leading to recommendations of either not trading or trading with light positions [2][4] - The support levels for gold are identified at 3415 and 3380, with potential for further increases if the market provides a pullback [5] Group 2: U.S. Economic Influence - President Trump has criticized the Federal Reserve and called for immediate interest rate cuts, which has led to increased volatility in financial markets and affected the outlook for the U.S. economy [2] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policies has contributed to a chaotic global market environment, increasing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 3: Silver Market Insights - Silver has not followed gold's upward trend, lacking its own momentum and being more influenced by gold's price movements [5] - The price levels for silver are monitored with resistance at 33 or 34, and potential for a downturn if gold shows signs of weakness [5] Group 4: Oil Market Overview - The oil market is currently in a bearish trend, with expectations of further declines, particularly if prices fall below key support levels of 60.5 and 56.5 [6] - Traders are advised to wait for a rebound to short-sell, as the overall sentiment remains negative [6] Group 5: Futures Market Analysis - Domestic gold futures have seen significant price increases, with the current level at 830, making it challenging to trade effectively due to the lack of pullbacks [7][8] - The futures for silver and other commodities are also experiencing volatility, with recommendations to focus on low-risk trades and monitor key support and resistance levels [9][10][11]

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要： 上周关税问题继续有 所缓和，中美双方都表达了基于一定条件下愿意就关税问题进行对话的意愿，市场风险偏好有所回升，后续有 无进一步实质行动是重点。另外上周鲍威尔的发言仍然相对鹰派，对美股影响较大，金、铜对此反应平静，从这个角度看，如果后续 二次通胀有抬升的空间，大概率仍将利多金、铜。 核心观点 1、上周金铜再度走强 贵金属方面，上周COMEX黄金上涨2.65%，白银上涨1.09%；沪金2506合约上涨4.45%，沪银2506合约上涨2.38%。主要 工业金属价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动+3.35%、+1.33%。 2、预期改善，铜价上行 在经历了此前的大幅波动之后，铜市场迎来阶段性平静。上周关税问题继续有所缓和，中美双方都表达了基于一定条件下愿 意就关税问题进行对话的意愿，市场风险偏好有所回升。虽然还没有进一步实质行动，但铜价相对乐观的对其进行了定价， 当然后续有无进一步实质行动是重点。另外上周鲍威尔的发言仍然相对鹰派，对美股影响较大，铜价对此反应平静，从这个 角度看，如果后续二次通胀有抬升的空间，铜大概率又变成多配的品种。 3、关 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price surged to a high of 3245, with a weekly increase of 270 USD, while domestic gold reached a peak of 765 [5][6] - The trading strategy for gold remains bullish, focusing on buying on dips, with key support levels at 3180, 3150, and 3080 [5][6] - The domestic gold futures contract (沪金2506) saw a rise from 700 to a maximum of 764, indicating a significant weekly increase of 64 points [6][7] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - International silver prices rebounded from a low of 28.2 to a high of 32.3, with a bullish outlook for the week targeting 34 [6][8] - The domestic silver futures contract (沪银2506) showed a rise from 7535 to a peak of 8180, reflecting a weekly increase of 580 points [8] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International crude oil experienced high volatility, dropping to 55 before rising to 63.2, indicating a weak bearish trend with potential for further declines [6] - The trading strategy for crude oil suggests caution, with a focus on key support levels at 59 and 55 [6] Group 4: Other Commodities - The pure soda ash market is currently at 1360, with a potential rebound from a low of 1300, but no significant upward trend is expected yet [9][10] - The fuel market is characterized by erratic movements, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for traders [9]