Group 1 - 30% of central banks surveyed plan to increase allocation to RMB assets, indicating a growing interest in diversifying investments into China [1] - The RMB has appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, with a trading range between 7.15 and 7.35 [1] - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds has exceeded $600 billion, reflecting a stable trend since 2025 [1] Group 2 - The RMB is experiencing structural changes, with a shift in expectations towards appreciation rather than depreciation [2] - The long-term low interest rate environment in China, with 10-year government bond yields below 2%, contrasts with the US yields above 4%, supporting RMB's internationalization [2] Group 3 - The credibility of US Treasury bonds is declining, as evidenced by increased volatility and a 5% drop in the USD index following tariff announcements [3][4] - The shift in trade dynamics due to tariffs may enhance the use of non-USD currencies, including RMB, in international trade settlements [5] Group 4 - The current low allocation of global stock assets to China (1.7%) compared to the US (54%) suggests a potential for systematic correction in the future [6] - China's manufacturing sector continues to lead globally, with a manufacturing value added of over 40.5 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 30% of global manufacturing [7] Group 5 - The market position of the RMB is improving, with foreign investors increasingly holding RMB-denominated assets, which currently account for about 3%-4% of total market value [8] - Economic stability and the effectiveness of domestic demand policies are expected to further enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets to foreign investors [8] Group 6 - The RMB's exchange rate is expected to remain stable, supported by high-quality economic development and ongoing foreign exchange market resilience [9] - The need for the RMB to maintain appropriate elasticity in its exchange rate is emphasized to mitigate downward pressure [9] Group 7 - Recent measures to facilitate cross-border investment and financing are expected to enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets, with significant reductions in processing times for foreign investment [10] - Allowing for a moderate appreciation of the RMB could help alleviate concerns about currency depreciation among foreign investors, fostering a positive investment environment [10][11]

Group 1 - The foreign exchange market in China is operating smoothly, with an increased willingness from foreign investors to allocate assets in RMB, and overall balanced cross-border capital flows [1][3] - In the first half of the year, the scale of foreign-related income and expenditure in China reached a record high of $7.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [3] - There was a net inflow of $127.3 billion in cross-border funds, with a significant quarter-on-quarter growth of 46% in the second quarter [3] Group 2 - Foreign exchange reserves increased to $33,174 billion by the end of June, up by $115.1 billion from the end of 2024 [3] - The trading volume in the domestic RMB foreign exchange market reached $21 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, with derivatives trading accounting for 65% of the total [3] - Foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds saw a net increase of $10.1 billion, reversing the trend of net reductions over the past two years [3] Group 3 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange plans to implement three key measures to enhance cross-border trade and investment, including expanding pilot policies in free trade zones and simplifying foreign direct investment registration [4] - The foreign debt quota for high-quality technology enterprises will be increased to $20 million, with formal documents to be released soon [4] - The market mechanism for RMB exchange rates is being continuously improved, with a historical high of 30% in the foreign exchange hedging ratio among enterprises [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that China's foreign exchange market performed better than expected in the first half of the year, with stable foreign capital allocation in RMB assets and a positive outlook for future investment [1][3][6] - The foreign exchange market showed strong resilience and vitality, with five key features: steady increase in foreign-related income and expenditure, continued net inflow of cross-border funds, basic balance in supply and demand, active market trading, and stable foreign exchange reserves [1][6] - The RMB exchange rate remained stable, appreciating by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, fluctuating between 7.15 and 7.35, which helped stabilize the macro economy and international payments [1][6] Group 2 - Foreign capital's allocation in RMB assets is expected to have sustainable growth potential, with foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion, and a net increase of $10.1 billion in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year [3][4] - The international balance of payments is maintaining basic equilibrium, with a steady increase in the current account surplus and a corresponding financial account deficit, indicating a self-balancing pattern [2][6] - Three factors are expected to support the continued stable operation of the foreign exchange market: robust economic fundamentals, steady progress in opening up to the outside world, and enhanced resilience of the foreign exchange market [6][7]

Core Insights - The external environment has become increasingly complex and variable since 2025, with rising unilateralism and protectionism, leading to a slowdown in global economic and cross-border trade growth [1] - China's macro policies are being implemented more actively to expand domestic demand and effectively respond to external challenges, resulting in overall stable economic operation and continued consolidation of high-quality development [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In the first half of the year, China's foreign exchange receipts and payments showed several characteristics: steady increase in foreign-related receipts and payments, continued net inflow of cross-border funds, basic balance in foreign exchange market supply and demand, active foreign exchange market trading, and stable foreign exchange reserve scale [1] - The foreign exchange market has effectively responded to external shocks, maintaining overall stability [1] Group 2: Foreign Investment in RMB Assets - Since 2025, foreign investment in RMB assets has remained stable, with foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion, a historically high level [2] - In the first half of the year, foreign investors net increased their holdings of domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, reversing the net selling trend of the past two years [2] - The proportion of foreign investors holding domestic bonds and stocks is approximately 3% to 4%, with expectations for gradual and sustainable growth in foreign investment in RMB assets supported by a stable macro environment and high-quality financial market development [2] Group 3: Innovation Policies in Free Trade Zones - The foreign exchange bureau plans to promote a series of innovative policies to more free trade pilot zones, focusing on expanding cross-border trade facilitation policies and advancing high-level openness in cross-border investment and financing [3] - Policies include optimizing international trade settlement, expanding the range of trade payment netting, and simplifying processes for cross-border trade [3] - These measures aim to enhance cross-border investment channels and improve financing efficiency, supporting foreign investment and high-level openness [3] Group 4: Outlook for the Foreign Exchange Market - The foreign exchange market is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year, supported by high-quality economic development, steady progress in opening up, and increasing market resilience [4] - The solid foundation for stable operation of the foreign exchange market is backed by a robust economic fundamental, with GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year [5] - The contribution of domestic demand to economic growth has increased, with final consumption and capital formation accounting for 77% of growth, up 17 percentage points from the previous quarter [5] Group 5: Resilience of the Foreign Exchange Market - The resilience of the foreign exchange market has improved, enhancing its ability to respond to external shocks [6] - The market has accumulated rich experience in counter-cyclical regulation and has a robust reserve of policy tools to mitigate external risks [6] - The awareness of exchange rate risk among enterprises has increased, with a historical high of 30% in both the foreign exchange hedging ratio and the proportion of RMB cross-border receipts and payments under goods trade [6]

Core Viewpoint - The National Foreign Exchange Administration emphasizes that China's foreign exchange market is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year, supported by robust economic fundamentals, steady progress in opening up, and enhanced market resilience [3][4]. Economic Fundamentals - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with domestic consumption and capital formation contributing 77% to economic growth, an increase of 17 percentage points from the previous quarter [3]. - The country is committed to expanding domestic demand as a long-term strategy, promoting the integration of technological and industrial innovation [3]. Foreign Exchange Market Resilience - The resilience of China's foreign exchange market has improved, with a more flexible exchange rate mechanism that can respond to external pressures [4]. - The corporate awareness of exchange rate risk has increased, with the foreign exchange hedging ratio and the proportion of cross-border RMB transactions reaching historical highs of around 30% [4]. Cross-Border Capital Flows - In the first half of the year, there was a net inflow of $127.3 billion in cross-border funds from non-bank sectors, continuing the trend from the second half of last year, with a 46% increase in the second quarter [5]. - Foreign investment in domestic stocks and bonds increased, with a net inflow of $10.1 billion in stocks and funds, reversing the previous two years' net outflow trend [6]. International Investment Trends - A survey indicated that 30% of global central banks plan to increase their allocation to RMB assets, reflecting the growing appeal of RMB-denominated investments for risk diversification [7]. Banking Sector Developments - Six new banks initiated foreign exchange business reforms in the first half of the year, bringing the total to 22 banks involved in these reforms [8]. Service Trade Performance - China's service trade income grew by 13% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with cross-border travel income increasing by 42% and the service trade deficit decreasing by 14% [9]. Direct Investment Trends - From January to May, net inflows of equity direct investment into China increased by 16% year-on-year, amounting to $31.1 billion [10]. Currency Exchange Rate Stability - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, maintaining stability within a range of 7.15 to 7.35 [11]. - The market shows no significant expectations for RMB appreciation or depreciation, indicating rational trading behavior [12]. Market Activity - The total trading volume in the domestic RMB foreign exchange market reached $21 trillion in the first half of the year, a 10.2% increase year-on-year [14]. - The combined scale of bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange reached $2.3 trillion, marking the second-highest level for the same period historically [15]. - The total scale of foreign-related income and expenditure reached $7.6 trillion, a historical high for the same period, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [16].

Core Insights - Foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds increased by a net amount of 10.1 billion USD in the first half of the year, reversing a trend of net selling over the past two years [1] - The total amount of foreign-held RMB bonds exceeded 600 billion USD, indicating a historically high level of foreign investment in this asset class [1] - The net increase in foreign investment in domestic stocks surged to 18.8 billion USD in May and June, reflecting a growing willingness among global capital to allocate to the domestic stock market [1] - Future foreign investment in RMB assets is expected to maintain stable and sustainable growth [1]