Group 1 - Multiple international investment banks have upgraded China's asset rating from neutral to overweight, indicating a growing consensus among foreign institutions on the positive outlook for Chinese assets [1] - Foreign capital has shown stable allocation towards RMB assets, with foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion and a net increase of $10.1 billion in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year [1] - The technology and artificial intelligence sectors have become focal points for foreign investment, with significant increases in holdings by foreign public funds such as Lobo and Invesco [1] Group 2 - China's financial market has improved its connectivity and investment environment, making it easier for foreign capital to participate, with the bond and stock markets ranking second globally in market capitalization [2] - Recent policy initiatives, such as allowing foreign financial institutions to offer similar services as domestic ones in pilot free trade zones, are expected to provide broader market opportunities for foreign entities [2] - The A-share market's recovery, with significant increases in major indices, has attracted foreign investment, as current valuation levels are perceived to offer enhanced allocation value [2] Group 3 - The stability of the RMB and its independent performance in global markets have made RMB assets an important option for global investors seeking to diversify risks and enhance returns [3] - A recent survey indicated that 30% of central banks worldwide plan to increase their allocation to RMB assets, reflecting growing international interest [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is showing signs of a potential bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 3600 points for the first time since January 2022, driven by positive economic fundamentals and policy support [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen over 16% since April 8, reaching 3600 points, while the Hang Seng Index has increased nearly 30%, hitting 25660 points, marking a new high since November 2021 [2]. - The A-share market is characterized by a strong upward trend, with various sectors experiencing different driving forces, suggesting a need for diversified holdings to mitigate risks [1][2]. Group 2: Supporting Factors - Multiple factors are supporting the market's rise, including improved global liquidity, favorable policies, technological innovation trends, and a shift in asset allocation by residents [2][3]. - The net inflow of foreign capital into domestic stocks and funds reached $10.1 billion in the first half of the year, with a significant increase in May and June, indicating a growing willingness of global capital to invest in the Chinese stock market [3][5]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Outlook - Foreign institutions, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, have expressed optimism about the A-share market, raising their target index levels due to attractive valuations and improving fundamentals [4][6]. - The proportion of foreign investors viewing China as a high or medium priority for asset allocation has increased from 44% to 59% over the past year, indicating a positive outlook for foreign investment in Chinese assets [3][5]. Group 4: Future Market Expectations - The market is expected to maintain a slow bull trend in the second half of the year, driven by low interest rates, policy guidance, and significant events [6][7]. - Analysts predict that the A-share market will likely experience upward fluctuations, with a focus on policy implementation and improvements in corporate earnings [7].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 3600 points before weakening at the close, with total trading volume close to 1.9 trillion yuan, indicating a recovery in market risk appetite [1] - The market's upward breakthrough is supported by stable economic fundamentals and policies aimed at addressing core issues in economic transformation [1] Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start operations on December 18, 2025, enhancing the flow of people, goods, capital, and data [2] - The implementation of a "one line open, one line controlled, and free within the island" policy is expected to attract more international enterprises and elevate Hainan's position in the global supply chain [2] Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated assets remains stable, with foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeding 600 billion USD, marking a historically high level [2] - In the first half of the year, foreign net purchases of domestic stocks and funds reached 10.1 billion USD, reversing the trend of net selling observed over the past two years [2][3] Market Performance - On July 23, A-shares showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3582.30 points, up 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index saw slight declines [4] - The non-bank financial, beauty care, and home appliance sectors led the gains, while construction materials, defense, and machinery sectors experienced the largest declines [4] Trading Activity - The market's trading volume was reported at 189.87 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous trading day, while the margin financing balance increased to 1.93 trillion yuan [5]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China has shown resilience and vitality in 2025, with stable foreign exchange reserves and a balanced supply-demand situation, indicating a positive outlook for foreign investment in RMB assets [1][2][3] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - The foreign exchange market has exhibited five key characteristics: steady increase in foreign-related income and expenditure, continued net inflow of cross-border funds, basic balance in supply and demand, active trading, and stable foreign exchange reserves [1] - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, with fluctuations between 7.15 and 7.35, maintaining stability while acting as an automatic stabilizer for the macro economy and international balance of payments [1][3] Group 2: Foreign Investment in RMB Assets - Foreign investment in RMB assets has remained stable, with foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion, a historically high level [2] - In the first half of 2025, foreign investors net increased their holdings of domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, reversing a two-year trend of net reductions, with significant increases in May and June [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for foreign investment in RMB assets is positive, with expectations of stable and sustainable growth due to a robust economic foundation, high-quality financial market development, and global asset diversification needs [2] - The foreign exchange market is expected to maintain stability in the second half of the year, supported by high-quality economic development, steady progress in opening up, and enhanced market resilience [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China has shown resilience amid complex external conditions, with stable expectations for the RMB exchange rate and continued net inflows of cross-border capital [1][5][11]. Summary by Sections Foreign Exchange Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the total cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors reached $7.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, marking a historical high for the same period [3]. - The combined settlement and sale of foreign exchange by banks amounted to $2.3 trillion, up 3% year-on-year, the second-highest level for the same period [3]. - The RMB accounted for 53% of cross-border transactions, indicating its growing importance in international trade [3]. Capital Inflows and Market Stability - There was a net inflow of $127.3 billion in cross-border capital from non-bank sectors, continuing the trend from the second half of the previous year, with a 46% increase in the second quarter [3]. - The RMB exchange rate remained stable, appreciating by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, fluctuating between 7.15 and 7.35 [5][11]. - The foreign exchange market showed balanced supply and demand, with a total trading volume of $21 trillion, a 10.2% increase year-on-year [3]. Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated assets has remained stable, with foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion [8]. - In the first half of 2025, foreign investors net purchased $10.1 billion in domestic stocks and funds, reversing a two-year trend of net selling [8]. - The proportion of foreign investors holding domestic bonds and stocks is approximately 3% to 4%, indicating potential for further growth in foreign investment in RMB assets [8][9]. Economic and Policy Environment - The macroeconomic environment remains stable, supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and enhancing the financial market [9]. - The foreign exchange market has accumulated experience in counter-cyclical adjustments, with improved regulatory effectiveness to mitigate external shocks [11]. - The overall balance of payments is expected to maintain a pattern of current account surpluses and capital account deficits, contributing to market stability [11].

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China has shown resilience amidst complex and volatile external conditions, maintaining stability and demonstrating strong performance in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - The scale of foreign exchange receipts and payments has steadily increased, with a total of $7.6 trillion in cross-border income and expenditure, marking a 10.4% year-on-year growth, the highest for the same period historically [2] - There has been a net inflow of cross-border funds amounting to $127.3 billion from non-bank sectors, continuing the trend of net inflows since the second half of last year, with a 46% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q2 [2] - The foreign exchange market has maintained a basic balance in supply and demand, with a total deficit of $25.3 billion in bank foreign exchange transactions, showing significant monthly fluctuations [2] Group 2: Currency Stability and Market Expectations - The RMB exchange rate has remained stable, appreciating by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, fluctuating between 7.15 and 7.35, which has helped stabilize the macro economy and international payments [4] - Market expectations for the RMB remain stable, with no significant unilateral appreciation or depreciation anticipated, reflecting rational trading behavior among market participants [4] - The international balance of payments has remained fundamentally balanced, with direct investment inflows into China showing a 16% year-on-year increase [4] Group 3: Attractiveness of RMB Assets - The scale of foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds has risen, with foreign holdings exceeding $600 billion, indicating a historically high level of interest [5] - Foreign investors have net increased their holdings in domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, reversing a two-year trend of net reductions, with significant increases noted in May and June [5] - The demand for diversified global asset allocation has created favorable conditions for foreign investment in China, with 30% of surveyed central banks indicating plans to increase their allocation to RMB assets [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stability and resilience of China's foreign exchange market in the context of a complex global economic environment, highlighting key factors that support this stability, including economic growth, high-level opening up, and enhanced market resilience [3][5]. Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with domestic demand contributing 77% to economic growth, an increase of 17 percentage points from the previous quarter [3]. - The service trade deficit decreased by 14%, with service trade income growing by 13% and cross-border travel income increasing by 42% [10]. Foreign Exchange Market Dynamics - In the first half of the year, there was a net inflow of $127.3 billion from non-bank sectors, continuing the trend from the second half of the previous year, with a 46% increase in net inflow in the second quarter [6]. - The total net increase in foreign investment in domestic stocks and bonds was $10.1 billion, reversing the net selling trend of the past two years [7]. - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, maintaining stability within a range of 7.15 to 7.35 [12]. Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investors' holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeded $600 billion, indicating a stable investment environment [7]. - A survey indicated that 30% of global central banks plan to increase their allocation of RMB assets, reflecting the asset's appeal for diversification and risk management [8]. Banking Sector Developments - Six new banks initiated foreign exchange business reforms in the first half of the year, bringing the total to 22 banks involved in these reforms [9]. - The total volume of foreign exchange transactions in the domestic RMB market reached $21 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.2% [14]. Overall Market Activity - The total scale of foreign-related income and expenditure reached $7.6 trillion, marking a historical high for the same period [16]. - The combined scale of bank settlements and sales of foreign exchange was $2.3 trillion, the second-highest for the same period historically [15].

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China is expected to maintain stable and sustainable growth for foreign investment in RMB assets, with confidence in the ability to ensure a robust market operation [1][5] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the foreign exchange market showed resilience, with record high cross-border income and expenditure from non-bank sectors [1] - There is no significant unilateral expectation for the appreciation or depreciation of the RMB, indicating rational and orderly market trading [2] Group 2: Investment Trends - From January to May 2025, net inflows of direct investment in equity from foreign sources reached $31.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16% [3] - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds has increased, with foreign holdings exceeding $600 billion, and net foreign purchases of domestic stocks and funds amounted to $10.1 billion in the first half of 2025 [4] Group 3: Policy Initiatives - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange plans to promote innovative policies across more free trade zones to enhance cross-border trade and investment [6] - Policies include optimizing international trade settlement and expanding the scope of trade revenue and expenditure netting [6]

Core Viewpoint - The current foreign exchange market shows no significant expectations for the appreciation or depreciation of the RMB, with rational and orderly trading observed [1]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Stability - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain basically stable at a reasonable equilibrium level due to high-quality economic development, steady progress in opening up, and increasing resilience in the foreign exchange market [2]. - In the first half of the year, the RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD, maintaining stability within the range of 7.15 to 7.35 [3]. Group 2: Foreign Exchange Market Activity - In the first half of the year, six new banks initiated foreign exchange business reforms, bringing the total to 22 banks involved in the reform [4]. - The trading volume in the domestic RMB foreign exchange market reached 21 trillion USD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.2% [6][7]. Group 3: Cross-Border Capital Flows - From January to May, net inflows of direct investment in equity from abroad amounted to 31.1 billion USD, representing a year-on-year growth of 16% [5]. - The total scale of cross-border income and expenditure for enterprises and individuals reached 7.6 trillion USD in the first half of the year, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [8]. Group 4: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds saw a net increase of 10.1 billion USD in the first half of the year, reversing the trend of net selling observed in the past two years [9]. - The total amount of foreign-held RMB bonds exceeded 600 billion USD, indicating a stable interest in RMB assets [9]. Group 5: Service Trade Developments - In the first half of the year, service trade income grew by 13%, with cross-border travel income increasing by 42%, while the service trade deficit decreased by 14% [10]. Group 6: Global Central Bank Trends - A recent survey indicated that 30% of global central banks plan to increase their allocation of RMB assets, reflecting a growing recognition of RMB assets as important for risk diversification and yield enhancement [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that foreign investment in RMB assets is expected to have stable and sustainable growth in the future [1] - Currently, the market value of domestic bonds and stocks held by foreign investors accounts for approximately 3%-4% [1] - Multiple positive factors are supporting the expectation that foreign capital will gradually increase its allocation to RMB assets [1]