资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测（注：股价为 2026 年 3 月 27 日收盘价，汇率 1HKD=0.88RMB） [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 单位/百万人民币 | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 5,050 | 6,599 | 8,318 | 10,312 | | 增长率（%） | 30.0 | 30.7 | 26.0 | 24.0 | | 归母净利润 | 1,204 | 1,587 | 2,028 | 2,565 | | 增长率（%） | 36.7 | 31.8 | 27.8 | 26.5 | | EPS | 2.46 | 3.24 | 4.14 | 5.23 | | P/E | 27 | 20 | 16 | 13 | | P/B | 6.9 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 毛戈平（1318.HK）2025 年年度业绩公告点评 业绩高势能增长，品类渠道协同发力 glmszqdatemark 事件：毛戈平发布 2025 年度业绩公告。2025 年公 ...

研究报告 Research Report 30 Mar 2026 毛戈平 Mao Geping Cosmetics (1318 HK) 2025 业绩符合预期，管理层维持 30%增长指引 2025 Results in Line with Expectations, Management Maintains 30% Growth Guidance [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus 核心大单品表现稳健，部分新品开始放量。 彩妆方面，鱼子气垫 超 5 亿元（占彩妆收入约 17%），小金扇粉饼与皮肤衣产品均超 3 亿元（各占约 10%），三大底妆单品合计贡献彩妆收入超 35%。 2H25 新品大地眼影与星辰眼影贡献增量，眼妆品类开始起量。护 肤方面，鱼子面膜超 10 亿元（占护肤收入约 50%），黑霜超 3 亿 元（占约 15%），黑金系列超 1.5 亿元（占约 8%），高端线已通 过市场验证。2026 年流光赋活系列（1 月已上市）将强化日护心 智，防晒妆前（3 月上线）与皮肤衣升级款将在线上放量。 品类战略清晰：彩妆线上拓客、护肤高端深挖、香氛起量。 护肤 全年收入 1 ...

Core Insights - The NEWty 2026 Tmall Super New Products Gala highlighted the impressive growth of new products in 2025 and introduced key support measures for high-quality new products in 2026, along with six major new product awards and a special recognition for women in business [1][14] Group 1: Growth Data - In 2025, over 16 million high-quality new products were launched on Tmall, setting a historical record, with more than 30,000 products achieving sales exceeding 1 million, representing a 35% year-on-year increase in quantity and a 34% increase in overall sales [2] Group 2: Brand Innovations and Success Stories - Leading brands shared exclusive methodologies for new products at the gala, with Adidas reporting a sales increase of over 25 times compared to the previous two years through its new series and Tmall's global launch [4] - Pantene's new product, a peptide hair mask, reached over 100 million new consumers within a month of launch, driven by innovative efficacy and targeted marketing on Tmall [4] - AMD leveraged AI technology to create a cultural brand image, promoting new products through Tmall and establishing itself as a pioneer in AI applications in China [4] Group 3: Awards and Recognitions - Several brands received annual awards for outstanding innovation and marketing, including Yaya for breaking 100 million in sales during Tmall Super Brand Day and achieving over 30,000 sales of its new product series [5] - Talanis was recognized for its innovative children's running shoes, achieving explosive growth and becoming the first Tmall super product brand in children's shoes to surpass 100 million in sales [5] - The "Cultural Creativity Brand of the Year" award went to Mao Ge Ping for its "Earth Eye Shadow" series, which achieved over 300 million in exposure through Tmall [6] Group 4: Annual Business Awards - The Tmall Annual Business Person Award recognized influential figures in the consumer market, including Gao Dekang from Bosideng for leading Chinese down jackets globally, and Adrian Siu from Adidas for driving digital innovation in the sports market [9][10] Group 5: Women's Empowerment Initiatives - The gala featured special awards for women's empowerment, recognizing brands that integrate commercial practices with support for women's growth, such as Erdos Group and Estée Lauder [11] - The "Annual Women's Power Award" was awarded to Ma Xiaoyu from L'Oréal China for her contributions to women's rights and empowerment in the industry [11] Group 6: 2026 Support Measures - Tmall announced its core support measures for high-quality new products in 2026, including increased resource investment and enhanced marketing strategies to ensure successful product launches [14]

Core Insights - The NEWty 2026 Tmall Super New Products Festival highlighted the impressive growth of new products in 2025 and announced key support measures for high-quality new products in 2026, including six major new product awards and a special recognition for women [1][11] Group 1: Growth Data and Brand Performance - Tmall has established itself as the primary launch platform for new products, with over 16 million quality new products launched in 2025, achieving a historical high in new product scale [2] - The overall transaction growth for new products reached 34%, with over 30,000 quality new products achieving sales exceeding one million, reflecting the platform's strong incubation capabilities [2] - Notable brands shared their successful new product strategies, such as Adidas, which saw a sales increase of over 25 times through its new series and Tmall's global launch [2] Group 2: Award Recognition and Brand Innovation - Several brands received awards for their outstanding innovation and marketing performance, including Duck Duck, which achieved over 100 million in sales during Tmall Super Brand Day [3] - Talanis was recognized for its innovative children's running shoes, becoming the first children's shoe brand on Tmall to surpass 100 million in sales [3] - Mao Ge Ping's "Earth Eye Shadow" series achieved over 300 million in exposure during Tmall Super Brand Day, earning the title of "Cultural Creativity Brand of the Year" [3] Group 3: Consumer Engagement and Marketing Strategies - Disney and Shanghai Disneyland won the "Consumer Choice Brand of the Year" for their collaboration on the "Zootopia 2" movie and related experiences [4] - Xiaojia's innovative marketing strategies led to record sales during its 10th anniversary campaign, with its new product ranking first in category sales [4] - Shaoyin's collaboration with Tmall Super Brand Day resulted in a 100% year-on-year sales increase, showcasing effective marketing innovation [4] Group 4: Recognition of Industry Leaders - The Tmall Annual Business Person Award was established to honor individuals who significantly shape the Chinese consumer market, with three notable winners recognized for their contributions [7] - Gao Dekang from Bosideng, Adrian Siu from Adidas, and Jasmine Xu from Procter & Gamble were awarded for their leadership and innovation in their respective fields [7][8] Group 5: Women's Empowerment Initiatives - The festival included special awards focusing on women's empowerment, recognizing brands that integrate commercial practices with support for women's growth [9] - The "Annual Women's Power Brand" award was given to brands like Erdos Group and Estée Lauder for their initiatives supporting women's development [9] - The "Annual Women's Power Award" was awarded to Ma Xiaoyu from L'Oréal China for her efforts in promoting women's rights and empowerment in the industry [9] Group 6: Future Initiatives and Support Measures - Tmall announced its core support measures for high-quality new products in 2026, aiming to enhance resource investment and increase traffic to ensure successful product launches [11] - The platform plans to utilize algorithms to identify target audiences for new products and leverage global marketing events to boost product visibility [11]