商贸零售 商贸零售 2025 年 10 月 12 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《吉宏股份预告高增长，关注三季度 高景气赛道公司 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.9.28 《医美化妆品 8 月月报：锦波生物胶 原蛋白冻干纤维获药用辅料登记，珀 莱雅拟赴港上市—行业点评报告》 -2025.9.27 《潮宏基订货会火热举办，优质新品 受加盟商欢迎—行业周报》-2025.9.21 国庆假期消费稳步恢复，关注年轻时尚黄金优质品牌 ——行业周报 黄泽鹏（分析师） 姚慕宇（联系人） huangzepeng@kysec.cn yaomuyu@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125040021 国庆假期消费稳步恢复，关注年轻时尚黄金优质品牌 国庆期间出行、餐饮、消费等各细分方面均有稳步复苏趋势，出行方面，国庆中 秋假日 8 天，全国国内出游 8.88 亿人次，较 2024 年国庆节假日 7 天增加 1.23 亿人次，国内出游总花费 8090.06 亿元，较 2 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The retail industry index decreased by 4.32% in the week of September 22-26, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.21% [6][13] - The report highlights the strong performance of certain companies, such as Jihong Co., which is expected to achieve a net profit of 209-222 million yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 55-65% [4][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and recommends focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [7][31] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index closed at 2281.69 points, ranking 29th among 31 primary industries [6][13] - The brand cosmetics sector experienced the smallest decline of 1.31% during the week, while the watch and jewelry sector led with a year-to-date increase of 26.87% [18][20] Company Performance Highlights - Jihong Co. is expected to achieve a net profit of 209-222 million yuan for Q3 2025, driven by its dual business model of cross-border e-commerce and packaging [4][26] - Old Puhuang reported a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 250.9%, with a net profit of 2.268 billion yuan, up 285.8% [36][37] - Chao Hong Ji achieved a revenue of 4.102 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit increase of 44.3% [39] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality companies in the gold and jewelry sector, such as Old Puhuang and Chao Hong Ji, which are expected to benefit from emotional consumption trends [7][31] - Emphasize the importance of offline retail companies that adapt to consumer trends, recommending companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Aiying Room [31][32] - Highlight the potential of domestic beauty brands, recommending companies like Mao Ge Ping and Po Lai Ya, which are positioned well in the high-end market [32][33]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The retail industry is experiencing a shift towards emotional consumption, with brands that possess differentiated product capabilities and deep consumer insights gaining traction [31] - The report highlights the strong performance of the jewelry sector, particularly in high-end and fashion segments, driven by consumer preferences and innovative marketing strategies [31][39] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail index closed at 2384.72 points, down 0.51% for the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell 1.30% [6][13] - Year-to-date, the retail index has increased by 6.51%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index's 13.97% rise [13][15] Key Industry Dynamics - The report emphasizes the successful autumn ordering meeting of Chao Hong Ji, showcasing strong demand for new products rooted in traditional craftsmanship and innovative designs [25][26] - The jewelry sector, particularly the high-end and fashion categories, is benefiting from emotional consumption trends, with brands like Lao Pu Gold and Chao Hong Ji recommended for investment [31][39] Company Performance Highlights - Lao Pu Gold reported a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan for H1 2025, a 250.9% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.268 billion yuan, up 285.8% [33][36] - Chao Hong Ji achieved a revenue of 4.102 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a 19.5% increase, with a net profit of 331 million yuan, up 44.3% [39][40] - The report also highlights the performance of other companies such as Mao Ge Ping and Ru Ben, which are experiencing significant growth in the cosmetics sector [32][42] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality companies in the emotional consumption theme, particularly in the jewelry and cosmetics sectors, with specific recommendations for Lao Pu Gold, Chao Hong Ji, and Mao Ge Ping [7][31][32]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Xingzheng International maintains an "overweight" rating for Maogeping (01318), expecting continued growth momentum in the second half of the year due to a low base effect and the launch of new products in the fourth quarter [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's sales reached 2.588 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.3% [2] - Makeup revenue accounted for 1.422 billion yuan, representing 55.1% of total sales, with a growth rate of 31.1% [2] - The core base makeup products, including the caviar cushion and soft silk powder, each surpassed 200 million yuan in retail sales, validating the effectiveness of the big product strategy [2] - Skincare revenue was 1.087 billion yuan, making up 42.0% of total sales, with a year-on-year growth of 33.4% [2] Group 2: Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 84.2%, impacted by rising unit costs from makeup upgrades and increased training expenses [3] - The selling and distribution expense ratio was 45.2% [3] - Net profit reached 670 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.1%, with the net profit margin improving by 0.9 percentage points to 25.9% due to enhanced operational efficiency and reduced listing expenses [3] Group 3: Brand Positioning and Market Expansion - The total number of members exceeded 19 million, with offline repurchase rates at 30.3% and online repurchase rates at 24.1%, indicating increasing brand loyalty [4] - The company plans to continue launching advanced perfumes, high-end skincare, and multifunctional makeup products centered around Eastern aesthetics [4] - The distribution strategy includes deepening offline presence in department stores and shopping centers while enhancing online efficiency through content and live streaming, with plans to open a new counter in Hong Kong and expand into Singapore, Japan, and South Korea [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a "buy" rating, expecting continued growth in the second half of the year due to a low base effect and the launch of new products in Q4, supported by a high-end membership system and Eastern aesthetic positioning [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In H1 2025, the company's sales reached 2.588 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, with color cosmetics contributing 1.422 billion yuan, accounting for 55.1% of total sales and growing by 31.1% [2] - The core base makeup products achieved retail sales exceeding 200 million yuan each, validating the effectiveness of the big product strategy [2] - The company launched a co-branded perfume with the Palace Museum in May, generating sales of 11.41 million yuan in two months, with plans to introduce more Eastern-themed fragrance products throughout the year [2] - Skincare revenue reached 1.087 billion yuan, representing 42.0% of total sales and a growth of 33.4%, with key products like caviar masks and black cream continuing to gain traction [2] Group 2: Profitability and Margins - The company's gross margin in H1 2025 was 84.2%, impacted by rising unit costs from color cosmetics upgrades and increased training expenses [3] - The selling and distribution expense ratio was 45.2%, but net profit margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 25.9% due to enhanced operational efficiency and reduced listing expenses, resulting in a net profit of 670 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.1% [3] Group 3: Brand Positioning and Market Expansion - The company has over 19 million members, with offline and online repurchase rates at 30.3% and 24.1% respectively, indicating strong brand loyalty [4] - Future product launches will focus on Eastern aesthetics, including advanced perfumes, high-end skincare, and multifunctional color cosmetics [4] - The company plans to enhance its distribution channels through a combination of department stores and shopping centers offline, and content-driven and live-streaming strategies online, with plans to open a new store in Hong Kong and expand into Singapore, Japan, and South Korea [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the launch of the "Gaode Street Ranking," which aims to reconstruct the trust framework in offline services through real navigation and travel behavior data [23][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and suggests focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [6][29] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index closed at 2396.85 points, up 0.85% for the week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.52% [12][20] - Among retail sub-sectors, the supermarket sector had the highest weekly increase of 4.78%, while the watch and jewelry sector led with a year-to-date increase of 35.68% [14][18] Industry Dynamics - The launch of the "Gaode Street Ranking" is positioned as a significant step for Alibaba to transition from a navigation platform to a comprehensive local service platform, enhancing user experience and trust [23][27] - The ranking system incorporates real user behavior and credit filtering to provide authentic feedback, potentially disrupting the existing "to-store" business landscape dominated by Meituan and Dianping [27][29] Investment Recommendations - Investment Theme 1: Focus on differentiated gold and jewelry brands with deep consumer insights, recommending companies like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [6][31] - Investment Theme 2: Highlight retail enterprises that adapt to trends and actively explore changes, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][29] - Investment Theme 3: Emphasize high-quality domestic beauty brands with differentiated capabilities, recommending brands like Maogeping and Pola [6][30] - Investment Theme 4: Focus on differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [6][30] Company Performance Highlights - Laopu Gold reported a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 250.9%, with a net profit of 2.268 billion yuan, up 285.8% [38][39] - Chaohongji achieved a revenue of 4.102 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 19.5% increase, with a net profit of 331 million yuan, up 44.3% [41][42] - Maogeping reported a revenue of 2.588 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 31.3% increase, with a net profit of 670 million yuan, up 36.1% [31][34]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating a positive trend in its business performance and market position [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 670 million yuan, up 36.1% [1]. - Adjusted net profit reached 672 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 32%, with an adjusted profit margin of 26% [1]. - The online and offline revenue for H1 2025 was 1.3 billion yuan and 1.22 billion yuan, respectively, showing increases of 39% and 27% year-on-year [2]. Product Category Performance - Skincare products outperformed color cosmetics, with revenue from skincare growing by 33% compared to 31% for color cosmetics [1]. - Specific product highlights include over 600 million yuan in retail sales for caviar masks (up 33% year-on-year) and over 200 million yuan for black cream [1]. Channel and Market Strategy - The company continued to enhance its presence in high-end markets, opening flagship stores and entering premium shopping areas such as Beijing SKP and Chongqing Star Light 68 [2]. - The repurchase rates improved, with online and offline rates increasing by 2.6 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The net profit margin reached 26% in H1 2025, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, despite a 0.7 percentage point decline in gross margin due to lower margins in color cosmetics and training schools [2]. - Significant cost optimization was noted, with total sales, management, and financial expense rates decreasing by a combined 3.9 percentage points [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a clear growth trend in the short to medium term, supported by a robust pipeline of mid-sized products and strong e-commerce flexibility [3]. - Long-term growth potential is anticipated through category expansion, collaboration with high-end brands, and international market entry [3]. - Projected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.25 billion, 1.57 billion, and 1.92 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 35.9, 28.4, and 23.3 times [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.59 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 670 million yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year. The adjusted profit reached 672 million yuan, with a growth of 32% and an adjusted profit margin of 26% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, the revenue from different product categories was as follows: makeup 1.42 billion yuan, skincare 1.09 billion yuan, fragrance 11 million yuan, and training schools 67 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +31%, +33%, no growth for fragrance, and -6% for training schools. Excluding training schools, total product sales grew by 32.7% [5]. Product Performance - Within the makeup category, the base makeup segment performed strongly, with retail sales of caviar cushion and light sensation powder exceeding 200 million yuan each. The skincare segment saw classic products like caviar masks achieving retail sales of over 600 million yuan (up 33% year-on-year) and black cream exceeding 200 million yuan. New high-end products are being introduced steadily [5]. Channel Performance - Online sales continued to grow significantly, with revenues of 1.3 billion yuan (up 39% year-on-year), while offline sales reached 1.22 billion yuan (up 27% year-on-year). The repurchase rates improved by 2.6 percentage points for online and 1.6 percentage points for offline channels [5]. Profitability - The net profit margin for H1 2025 reached 26%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. This was attributed to a 0.7 percentage point decline in gross margin, primarily due to lower margins in makeup and training schools, and a significant optimization in expense ratios [5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a clear growth trend in the short to medium term, driven by a robust pipeline of mid-tier products, high elasticity in e-commerce channels, and continuous improvement in offline store efficiency. The long-term potential includes category expansion, collaboration with more high-end brands, and international market entry [5]. The projected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.25 billion, 1.57 billion, and 1.92 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 35.9, 28.4, and 23.3 times [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in H1 2025, with revenue and net profit growth exceeding 30%, aligning with expectations, and demonstrating sustained momentum in high-end brand positioning [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - H1 2025 revenue reached 2.588 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 670 million yuan, up 36.1% [1] - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 1.179 billion, 1.536 billion, and 1.939 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.41, 3.13, and 3.95 yuan [1] Group 2: Business Segmentation - In H1 2025, the makeup, skincare, and makeup art training segments generated revenues of 1.422 billion, 1.087 billion, and 67 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.1%, 33.4%, and a decline of 5.9% respectively [2] - Online and offline channels achieved revenues of 1.297 billion and 1.224 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 39.0% and 26.6% [2] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 84.2%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points, with specific margins for makeup, skincare, fragrance, and makeup art training at 82.7%, 87.5%, 62.9%, and 77.6% respectively [2] - The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 45.2%, 6.9%, and 0.6%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.3, 1.5, and 0.2 percentage points, indicating stable cost management [2] Group 4: Product Development and Market Expansion - The company continues to leverage synergies between makeup and skincare, with significant sales in high-end products such as the small gold fan powder and caviar cushion, each exceeding 200 million yuan [3] - The fragrance segment is expanding with new launches like "Guoyun Ningxiang" and "Wendao Dongfang," achieving sales of 11.41 million yuan [3] - The skincare segment saw retail sales of the caviar mask surpassing 600 million yuan, accounting for nearly 60% of skincare sales, with strong performance from key products [3] Group 5: Channel Strategy and Customer Engagement - The company has expanded its offline presence with 405 self-operated and 32 distributor counters across over 120 cities, achieving a repurchase rate of 30.3%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points [3] - Online sales during the 2025 618 promotion grew over 70%, and the company secured the top position in the Douyin makeup category during the Good Goods Festival, indicating effective online marketing strategies [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][11] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.588 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.3%, and a net profit of 670 million yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [4][5] - The company is recognized as a rare high-end domestic beauty brand, demonstrating stable performance even under high base conditions [4] - The earnings forecast remains unchanged, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 1.179 billion, 1.536 billion, and 1.939 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to EPS of 2.41, 3.13, and 3.95 yuan [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For 2025, the expected revenue is 5.184 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 33.4% [7] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.179 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.9% [7] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 84.4% for 2025 [7] - The P/E ratio for 2025 is projected at 35.7 times [7]