3天前，已经很久没有消息的中粮鸿云在时隔3年之后，再次获得预售证。 最新取证的是8、9、7、2四栋住宅，预售面积27899平米。说是预售，其实中粮鸿云前期楼栋早就成了现房，第一期在去年都已交 付，如今获证的4栋住宅之所以拖到现在才办预售证，一方面是是因为中粮鸿云的销售状况很不理想，前三次取得预售证的12栋住宅 迟迟无法消化，另一方面，中粮鸿云当年是高价拿地，可是开盘后售价却一降再降，基本是亏本销售，大悦城控股也有观察市场走 势，寻找更合适销售机会的考虑。 中粮鸿云的土地面积有77亩，是大悦城在2021年经过28轮激烈竞拍后花6亿元拿下的土地，由于溢价30%，中粮鸿云的楼面地价就达 到了4677元/平米，而且还要配建幼儿园、生鲜超市等，可是中粮鸿云在2022年首开时，起价也才7300元，而且是精装交付，已经是 亏本销售，后期价格也始终没起来，整盘亏损恐难避免。 大悦城作为央企中粮集团旗下的房地产开发企业，进入昆明后发展一直不太顺利，最早参与的老螺蛳湾片区一二级开发，因为属于合 作开发性质，大悦城的参与度本来就不高，由合作方碧桂园操盘的隆盛府目前已经是不死不活的状态，合作各方矛盾重重。 中粮鸿云曾经以不到7000 ...

投资力度回升，拿地销售比回升至0.23；归母净利连续三年亏损。 ◎ 作者 / 沈晓玲、陈家凤 核 心 观 点 【 杭州、西安销售额贡献超4成，京沪降幅靠前】 2024年大悦城控股实现销售额369亿，同比下滑20%； 销售权益比例44.5%，较去年同期减少5.5pct ， 需警惕合作方风险。据年报披露的销售明细显示， 全年86%销售额由一二线贡献 ，杭州、西安销售额贡献超4成，北京、上海和天津等地合计销售贡献约 14亿元，单城销售降幅均超70%，表现相对疲软。 【 投资力度回升，拿地销售比升至0.23】 2024年大悦城控股投资力度回升，新增5宗地块，拿地建面56万平，基于2023年低基数的影响， 同比大幅增加 232%， 土地总价款84亿， 同比增幅约33% ，按金额计 拿地销售比从去年的0.14回升至0.23 。年内投资的杭州萧山区世纪城钱塘湾总部住宅地块，全年 单盘贡献约91亿，成为大悦城全国销冠，然而该项目楼面价占到售价的65%，盈利空间被压缩。未来需做好地块流量和盈利之间的平衡，才能修复长期盈 利水平。2024年末大悦城剩余可开发计容建面 1 822万方，较年初下滑16%，足够支撑未来3-4年左右的开 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Dalian City Holdings [5] Core Views - Dalian City Holdings is backed by COFCO Group and operates under a "development + operation" dual-driven model, focusing on core cities across the country. The overall property development and investment operation are stable, with a noticeable recovery in profitability expected to continue [5][6] - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of -3.035 billion, -831 million, and 872 million yuan for the years 2024-2026, with corresponding EPS of -0.71, -0.19, and 0.20 yuan, indicating a positive trend in earnings recovery [5] Summary by Sections 1. Development and Operation Dual-Driven Model - Dalian City Holdings has been operating for over 30 years, establishing a brand ecosystem through its dual-driven model of development and operation. The company is positioned as a "city operator and provider of quality living services" [24][29] - The strategic direction is clear, with a broad business layout across 38 cities, focusing on residential, commercial, and industrial real estate [29][31] 2. Steady Development of Investment Properties - The company has a strong performance in its investment property business, with revenue growth. In 2023, investment property revenue reached 5.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.3% [7][42] - The average occupancy rate of the company's shopping centers was 95% in 2023, with a significant increase in customer traffic and sales [44] 3. Stable Development of Core Business - In 2023, the company achieved a total contract signing of 46.1 billion yuan, ranking 29th in the sales performance of real estate companies in China, an improvement of 4 places from 2022 [6][77] - The company has adopted a cautious approach to land acquisition, focusing on core urban areas, with a total land acquisition area of 168,000 square meters in 2023, a decrease of 78.81% year-on-year [6] 4. Financial Stability and Cost Reduction - The company has optimized its debt structure, with total interest-bearing debt at 72.648 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 76.73% as of the end of 2023. The average borrowing cost for new loans in the first half of 2024 was 3.13% [8] - The company successfully listed its commercial REIT, raising 3.323 billion yuan, contributing to investment income of 2.1 billion yuan [8] 5. Profitability Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts that the company's revenue will maintain growth, with a projected net profit turning positive in 2026 [9][13]