证券研究报告 "大家一起找不同"之周期主题基金经理篇 证券分析师 | 陈 | 瑶 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 | | --- | --- | --- | | 郭子睿 | | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520070003 | | 任书康 | | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525050001 | | 研究助理 | | | | 高 | 越 | 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070014 | | 胡心怡 | | 一般从业资格编号：S1060124030069 | 2026年3月10日 报告摘要 本文回顾了2018年以来A股2轮周期板块行情，梳理了周期主题基金持仓变化，并对部分周期基金经理进行具体分析。 2 • 周期板块行情回顾：2018年以来，周期板块共经历两轮行情：1）2020二季度-2021年三季度，主要驱动因素为全球疫后复苏下的供需错配。疫情 下全球供应链中断，疫后海外大规模财政刺激推动商品需求，国内"双碳"政策进一步强化了供给端收缩逻辑，大宗商品价格迭创新高。2） 2025年7月以来，周期板块行情主要驱动因素为美元走弱、全球政治经济格局重构与有色金属结构性供给约束，"反内卷"政 ...

Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached the 3900-point mark for the first time in over a decade, highlighting a significant shift in the fund market with over 500 funds doubling their performance while nearly 100 funds remain in a loss position [1][2] Group 1: Fund Performance - Over 513 funds have achieved a doubling of their performance since August 2015, with notable funds like Huashang New Trend and Huashang Advantage Industry achieving returns over 5 times [2] - The disparity in fund performance is stark, with 98 funds showing cumulative losses, 67 of which have returns below -10%, and the worst-performing fund, Tianzhi New Consumption, suffering a loss of 55.3% [4][5] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Successful fund managers have focused on high-growth sectors such as new energy, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence, adapting to macroeconomic changes and industry cycles [3][4] - The investment landscape has evolved, with a shift towards diversified strategies that balance industry exposure and risk, moving away from reliance on single sectors [7][8] Group 3: Challenges and Adaptations - Many underperforming funds have concentrated on traditional sectors like real estate and consumer goods, missing out on growth opportunities in emerging industries [4][6] - Smaller firms often struggle with research capabilities and inconsistent investment styles, leading to significant performance declines [5][6] Group 4: Long-term Focus - The industry is encouraged to abandon short-term speculation in favor of long-term, stable investment strategies that can withstand market fluctuations [7][8] - Fund managers are advised to build core competencies that can navigate through economic cycles, ensuring a balanced approach to investment across various sectors [7][8]

Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached the 3900-point mark for the first time in over a decade, highlighting a significant market shift with over 500 funds achieving doubled returns, while nearly 100 funds remain in a loss position [1][2]. Fund Performance - A total of 513 funds have doubled their performance since August 2015, with notable funds like Huashang New Trend and Huashang Advantage Industry achieving returns over 5 times [2]. - Conversely, 98 funds have reported cumulative losses, with 67 of these funds showing returns below -10%, and the worst-performing fund, Tianzhi New Consumption, suffering a loss of 55.3% [4][5]. Investment Strategies - Successful fund managers have capitalized on emerging trends in sectors such as renewable energy, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence, adapting their strategies to align with macroeconomic changes [3][4]. - The industry has seen a shift from traditional sectors like real estate and consumer goods to high-growth areas, driven by a focus on technological innovation and strategic emerging industries [3][6]. Long-term Investment Focus - The fund industry has evolved, with a greater emphasis on diverse investment strategies and tools, moving away from short-term speculation to long-term stability [7][8]. - Leading fund managers advocate for a balanced approach that includes various investment styles and sectors, aiming to mitigate risks while capturing high-growth opportunities [8].

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant divergence in fund performance over the past decade, with over 500 funds achieving more than double returns while nearly 100 funds remain in a loss position [2][3][6] - The evolution of the fund industry is marked by a diversification of investment strategies and tools, enhancing support for investment operations [2][4] Fund Performance - Since August 19, 2015, the Shanghai Composite Index has crossed the 3900-point mark, with 513 funds achieving double returns during this period [3] - Notable high-performing funds include Huashang New Trend Selection and Huashang Advantage Industry, with returns exceeding five times, while others like Xinao New Energy Industry and Jiayin Trend Priority achieved returns over four times [4] Investment Strategies - Successful fund managers have capitalized on market opportunities by focusing on sectors like new energy, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence, aligning their strategies with industry cycles and policy directions [4][5] - The article emphasizes the importance of adapting to macroeconomic changes and embracing innovation to generate long-term returns [5] Underperforming Funds - In stark contrast, 98 funds have reported losses, with 67 of them yielding returns below -10%, and the worst-performing fund, Tianzhi New Consumption, suffering a loss of 55.3% [6][7] - The underperformance is attributed to poor sector choices, with many funds heavily invested in traditional sectors like real estate and consumer goods, missing out on growth opportunities in emerging industries [7][8] Long-term Investment Focus - The article advocates for a shift from short-term speculation to long-term, stable investment strategies, highlighting the need for fund managers to build core capabilities that can withstand market cycles [9][10] - Successful funds have balanced their portfolios across various sectors and investment styles, ensuring stability while capturing high-growth opportunities [10]

Group 1 - The article highlights the emergence of mid-generation fund managers in the public fund industry, who are becoming key players between established veterans and new rising stars [2] - Notable mid-generation fund managers include Yuan Weide from China Europe Fund, Liu Xu and Han Chuang from Great Wall Fund, and Zhang Jintao from Harvest Fund, among others [2] - These managers face the challenge of balancing scale growth with performance stability, aiming to convert short-term success into long-term sustainable returns [2] Group 2 - Yuan Weide has 8.46 years of investment experience and manages four products with a total scale of 10.267 billion yuan [3] - Initially focused on TMT and electronics, Yuan has expanded his expertise to banking, new energy, and consumer sectors, categorizing assets into three types based on risk-return characteristics [4] - As of Q1 2025, Yuan's portfolio includes high-end manufacturing, consumer goods, and gold stocks, adhering to a value investment philosophy that prioritizes safety and growth [4][5] Group 3 - Liu Xu, with 9.88 years of experience, manages seven products totaling 25.734 billion yuan, focusing on deep value investment through a five-dimensional stock selection model [8] - His investment strategy emphasizes long-term value and competitive advantages, particularly in the manufacturing sector [9] - Liu's flagship product, Great Wall Gaoxin, has achieved a total return of 382.52% since his appointment in July 2015, outperforming the benchmark [13] Group 4 - Han Chuang, with 6.42 years of experience, manages seven products totaling 14.642 billion yuan, known for a cyclical growth strategy focusing on industry trends [10] - His performance has been closely tied to macroeconomic conditions, and he aims to diversify beyond cyclical sectors to enhance returns [17] - Han's flagship product, Great Wall New Industry, has delivered a total return of 299.27% since his appointment in January 2019, although recent performance has lagged [16] Group 5 - Zhang Jintao from Harvest Fund has 9.05 years of experience and manages seven products with a total scale of 15.428 billion yuan, focusing on value investment principles [20] - His representative product, Harvest Hong Kong and Shanghai Select, has achieved a total return of 152.37% since May 2016, with a year-to-date return of 10.68% [22][23] - Wang Guizhong, another notable manager from Harvest Fund, has 6.10 years of experience and focuses on technology investments, achieving a total return of 170.06% since May 2019 [25][27]