开发浪潮下，由于非洲国家缺乏可再生能源项目经验，中国企 业成为优质供应商。 作者：潘俊田 封图：图虫创意 今年8月15日，在山东安装集团的年中总结会上，该公司宣布海外业务将从过往的"以项目为中 心"转型为"以区域为中心"，正式启动全球化战略。 非洲市场是山东安装重点布局的区域市场之一。山东安装集团表示，新能源产品匮乏的非洲市场， 已成为国内众多企业锚定的"蓝海"。 国内企业在非洲电力投资市场中，大型水电站是最早且规模最大的领域。直到近几年，风光储等新 能源项目才开始进入投资视野。相较于水电，可再生能源项目初始投资金额更低、回收周期更短、 技术门槛也相对较低，而非洲恰好拥有丰富的光照和风力资源。 过去数年间，非洲国家陆续发布了大量的可再生能源规划。 以南非为例，该国从2023年起启动大 规模光储项目建设，规划从2025年开始每年新增3GW—5GW光伏装机，预计到2030年新增可再生 能源装机容量将达到50GW—60GW。 目前中电建、中广核等开发商已在南非开展百MW规模以上的光伏项目建设。"非洲的电力缺口很 大。现有的柴油经济性不高，而'光伏+储能'的平准化度电成本（LCOE）远低于柴油机发电成 本。同时，政府 ...

Core Viewpoint - TotalEnergies is actively transforming from a traditional oil company to a comprehensive energy supplier, with a significant focus on expanding its electricity business, which has already surpassed 10% of its total revenue and aims to reach 20% by 2030 [2][3][8]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, TotalEnergies' electricity segment generated $24.475 billion in revenue, with an adjusted net profit of $2.173 billion, while the company's total revenue was $195.61 billion, with an adjusted net profit of $18.3 billion [3]. - The electricity segment's adjusted net profit grew by 17.3% year-on-year, contrasting with declines in other business segments [3]. Growth in Electricity Business - TotalEnergies' net electricity generation increased by 23% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 22.9 billion kilowatt-hours, with total installed electricity capacity growing by 26% to 30.2 GW [2][4]. - The electricity business's share of TotalEnergies' total revenue rose from 1% in 2020 to 12.5% by the end of 2024, with a target to increase this to 20% by 2030 [2][8]. Strategic Investments and Future Plans - TotalEnergies plans to invest $4.5 billion in low-carbon energy in 2025, representing 26.5% of its total investment plan, which is significantly higher than other international oil and gas companies [8]. - The company aims to achieve a total installed electricity capacity of 100 GW by 2030, positioning itself among the top five renewable electricity producers globally, excluding China [8][9]. Regional Distribution and Project Development - TotalEnergies has established a diverse portfolio of electricity projects globally, with significant capacities in North America and India, each exceeding 9 GW [6][8]. - The company is also developing various joint ventures in China, focusing on solar and wind energy projects, with plans to operate 1.5 GW of distributed solar assets [11][12]. Transition and Market Position - The transition to a low-carbon energy model is driven by the recognition of increasing electricity demand and the importance of low-carbon power in future energy systems [5][13]. - TotalEnergies is leveraging its extensive experience in the oil and gas sector to enhance its electricity business, aiming for a capital return rate of 12% by 2030 [15][17].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is dated August 20, 2025, and focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - There is no specific report industry investment rating provided in the content Group 3: Core Views - Industrial silicon sentiment has weakened, with a trend intensity of -1; polysilicon sentiment has been boosted by market news, with a trend intensity of 1 [1][4] Group 4: Fundamental Data Summary Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2511 closing price is 8,625 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan from T - 5 and 70 yuan from T - 22; PS2511 closing price is 52,280 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan from T - 1 and 705 yuan from T - 5 [2] - Si2511 trading volume is 438,313 lots, down 72,937 lots from T - 1, 82,191 lots from T - 5, and 1,266,686 lots from T - 22; PS2511 trading volume is 425,548 lots, down 194,013 lots from T - 1 and 167,274 lots from T - 5 [2] - Si2511 open interest is 286,605 lots, down 11,014 lots from T - 1 but up 7,745 lots from T - 5, and down 100,647 lots from T - 22; PS2511 open interest is 135,517 lots, down 3,206 lots from T - 1 and 4,222 lots from T - 5 [2] Basis - Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is +795 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan from T - 5 and 130 yuan from T - 22; polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - feed) is - 5,260 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan from T - 5 and 1,655 yuan from T - 22 [2] Price - Xinjiang 99 - silicon price is 8,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 but down 100 yuan from T - 5; Yunnan Si4210 price is 9,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 but down 50 yuan from T - 5 [2] - Polysilicon - N - type re - feed price is 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5 but up 1,000 yuan from T - 22 [2] Profit - Silicon plant profit (Xinjiang new standard 553) is - 2,676 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from T - 1 but down 625 yuan from T - 5; silicon plant profit (Yunnan new standard 553) is - 3,355 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from T - 1 but down 566 yuan from T - 5 [2] - Polysilicon enterprise profit is - 16.9 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan from T - 1 and T - 5 but down 14.5 yuan from T - 22 [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.5 million tons, down 0.2 million tons from T - 5 and T - 22; industrial silicon - enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) is 17.1 million tons, up 0.11 million tons from T - 5 but down 0.3 million tons from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon - manufacturer inventory is 24.2 million tons, up 0.9 million tons from T - 5 but down 0.7 million tons from T - 22 [2] Raw Material Cost - Xinjiang silicon ore price is 340 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22; Yunnan silicon ore price is 320 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [2] - Xinjiang washed coking coal price is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22; Ningxia washed coking coal price is 970 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan from T - 5 and 95 yuan from T - 22 [2] Organic Silicon, Aluminum Alloy - DMC price is 11,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 but down 1,000 yuan from T - 5; DMC enterprise profit is - 1,032 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan from T - 1 but down 872 yuan from T - 5 [2] - ADC12 price is 20,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 but up 100 yuan from T - 5; recycled aluminum enterprise profit is - 240 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan from T - 1 but up 150 yuan from T - 5 [2] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - T1 Energy signed an agreement to purchase purified polysilicon and solar wafers produced by Corning at its Michigan manufacturing park, with wafer deliveries expected to start in the second half of 2026 [4] - The US has 25 GW of active polysilicon refining capacity, 2 GW of cell capacity, and 57.5 GW of module capacity, but no polysilicon ingot or wafer capacity [4]

但现实情况是，中印关系过去几年进入"冷静期"，印度曾为中国企业赴印投资设下种种障碍，至今仍然存在。更深层次的，印度在产业发展奉行的 本土主义、杂乱的政府管理体系，这些都有可能为正在升温的中印合作泼一盆冷水。 中印新能源合作等待一个明确的信号。 中汽新能与印度最大的电力部门基础设施投资信托公司 IndiGrid 签署 2026-2027 年储能系统产品 5GWh 合作备忘录。此前，中汽新能已获得印 度电网 1GWh 订单，目前正在交付。 无论是在新能源展会上频繁看见的印度身影，或是中印两国高层的频繁互动，这些都敏锐地反映着中国与印度经贸关系的回温。 这两个总人口超过 28 亿的大国正在将合作的重心放在新能源领域。 从光伏、风电、储能，到出行电动化，中国企业正广泛参与印度实现 2070 年 碳中和的宏伟蓝图中。 大门初启 近期，一份5GWh的储能大单正在揭开中国与印度新能源合作的冰山一角。 接下来，外界期待着更加明确的信号释放。印度媒体最新消息，印度总理莫迪将时隔 7 年后于 8 月 31 日至 9 月 1 日访问中国并出席上海合作组 织天津峰会。 这一场中印会面牵动着世界的目光，外界关注着中印双方经贸合作的深化 ...

2025年08月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 8 日 镍：多空博弈加剧，镍价窄幅震荡 不锈钢：供应弹性现实与宏观预期博弈，钢价震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：多空博弈加剧，镍价窄幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供应弹性现实与宏观预期博弈，钢价震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：周产量爬升带动累库，关注矿证续期事件的发酵 | 4 | | 工业硅：库存去化，关注市场情绪 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注市场信息发酵情况 | 6 | 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,850 | 780 | 2,020 | ...

Summary of Conference Call on Chinese Exports and US Tariffs Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the impact of rising US tariffs on Chinese exports and the potential rerouting of trade to other markets, particularly in the context of ongoing trade frictions between the US and China [1][2][3]. Key Points 1. **Resilience of Chinese Exports**: Despite an increase in the US effective tariff rate from approximately 10% to around 40%, Chinese exports have shown resilience, with overall exports up 6% year-on-year as of May and June 2025. This resilience is attributed to trade rerouting to other countries, particularly ASEAN markets [1][6][7]. 2. **Trade Rerouting Dynamics**: The pattern of Chinese exports indicates a 'see-saw' effect, where a decline in US-bound exports corresponds with a significant rise in exports to other markets. This suggests that while exports to the US have returned to 2019 nominal levels, overall export volumes remain robust [2][10][11]. 3. **Overcapacity Issues**: China's overcapacity remains a critical concern, with estimates indicating that Chinese production capacity exceeds global demand in several sectors: 149% for solar modules, 126% for lithium batteries, 113% for construction machinery, 108% for air conditioners, and 105% for electric vehicles as of 2024. This overcapacity is deeply rooted in China's fiscal and political systems, making it challenging to address quickly [15][16][18]. 4. **Impact on Global Economies**: The rerouting of Chinese exports is expected to create headwinds for manufacturing activities in other economies, particularly in Europe, and may lead to lower goods inflation outside the US. Each 1 percentage point increase in imports from China as a share of goods consumption is estimated to lower goods inflation by approximately 80 basis points [3][6][21]. 5. **Vulnerability of Other Economies**: Vietnam is identified as the most vulnerable to potential US tariffs on transshipment of goods from China, with about one-third of its total imports coming from China. Other countries like the Philippines, Korea, and Taiwan also face significant exposure to transshipment risks [4][19]. 6. **Concerns Over Anti-Dumping Actions**: Chinese companies are increasingly worried about the acceleration of anti-dumping actions in Europe, particularly in the UK. The emphasis on service and aftermarket support in Europe poses challenges for Chinese firms, especially in sectors like batteries and electrical equipment [5][34]. Additional Insights - **Current Account Surplus**: The ongoing trade rerouting is likely to contribute to a continued upside surprise in China's current account surplus, which is a key factor supporting a constructive outlook on the RMB in the medium term [3][18]. - **Sector-Specific Growth**: Certain sectors, particularly capital goods, have outpaced overall export growth, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics and market opportunities for Chinese manufacturers [32][34]. - **Long-Term Outlook**: While immediate trade rerouting may provide temporary relief, the long-term sustainability of this strategy remains uncertain, with potential payback effects anticipated in the coming months [10][11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the state of Chinese exports amid rising US tariffs and the broader implications for global trade dynamics.

Group 1 - The European Union (EU) has not chosen to compromise with the United States amid the tariff war, while it has previously taken measures against China, making China's countermeasures a reasonable response [1] - China imposed anti-dumping duties on certain European brandy imports, with rates ranging from 27.7% to 34.9%, effective for five years, unless EU companies adjust their prices accordingly [1] - China also introduced countermeasures against EU medical devices due to restrictions imposed by the EU on Chinese companies' participation in procurement over 5 million euros [1] Group 2 - On July 16, China and the EU reached a consensus to lift mutual restrictions, including sanctions on certain European Parliament members, but the EU later sanctioned two Chinese financial institutions, causing dissatisfaction in China [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce expressed strong opposition to the EU's sanctions, claiming they violate international law and disrupt China-EU economic and financial cooperation [3] - Negotiations on price commitments for electric vehicles between China and the EU are nearing completion, with both sides seeking a solution compliant with legal and WTO rules [3] Group 3 - The visit of the European Council President and the European Commission President to Beijing marks a significant diplomatic engagement, occurring just days before the US's tariff deadline on EU steel and aluminum products [4] - The EU's economy has been significantly impacted by the "reciprocal tariffs" policy implemented by the Trump administration, with China becoming the EU's largest trading partner over the past twelve years [6] Group 4 - In the EU's emerging new energy vehicle market, one in three cars is equipped with Chinese-made batteries, with CATL's factory in Hungary set to begin production [8] - The EU relies heavily on China for solar components and lithium batteries, indicating a "complementary model" of "Made in China, Designed in Europe" that is reshaping global industry [8] - European leaders are advocating for "strategic autonomy," indicating a shift away from being a "vassal" of the US, and recognizing China as a vital partner amid increasing tariff pressures [8]

Group 1 - The upcoming visit of European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen to China marks a significant diplomatic event, being the first joint visit of both leaders to China in 50 years of diplomatic relations, occurring just days before the U.S. imposes a 25% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products [1] - The U.S. tariffs have already impacted the EU economy, particularly the automotive sector, which exported vehicles and components worth $58 billion to the U.S. in 2023, accounting for 20% of total EU automotive exports and affecting approximately 14 million jobs in Europe [1] - The EU is considering a simpler "tariff-for-tariff" proposal to negotiate with the U.S. regarding automotive tariffs, moving away from a more complex mechanism proposed by German manufacturers, which has caused internal disagreements among EU member states [3] Group 2 - In the first half of the year, trade between China and the EU reached 2.82 trillion yuan, a 3.5% increase year-on-year, with an average daily trade exceeding 15 billion yuan, highlighting the EU's position as China's second-largest trading partner [5] - The EU relies heavily on Chinese supply chains, with 60% of its solar components and 45% of lithium batteries sourced from China, indicating a growing interdependence in the renewable energy sector [5] - Recent tensions arose from China's imposition of anti-dumping duties on certain EU brandies and medical devices in response to EU restrictions on Chinese companies, reflecting ongoing trade disputes [5][7] Group 3 - The joint visit of Costa and von der Leyen presents an opportunity for deeper cooperation between China and the EU, potentially leading to stronger economic ties that could counter U.S. tariff pressures [9] - European leaders are increasingly advocating for "strategic autonomy," indicating a shift away from reliance on the U.S. and a desire to strengthen partnerships with countries like China in the face of geopolitical challenges [7][9] - The evolving dynamics suggest that cooperation and mutual benefit may become the prevailing trend in international trade, as opposed to unilateralism and protectionism [9]

Overview - The company, Shenzhen Zhaoxin New Energy Co., Ltd., plans to reduce the capital of its subsidiary, Shenzhen Yongsheng New Energy Co., Ltd., to optimize its capital structure and reduce financial costs [1][6]. Capital Reduction Details - The capital reduction will decrease Shenzhen Yongsheng's registered capital from 1,152.76 million yuan to 783.88 million yuan, with the company reducing its investment by 450.48 million yuan [2][4]. - After the reduction, the company's direct shareholding in Shenzhen Yongsheng will be 80.9516%, while the combined shareholding with its wholly-owned subsidiary, He Xin Holdings, will remain at 97.6963% [2][4]. Regulatory Compliance - The capital reduction requires approval from the company's shareholders' meeting and must comply with relevant regulations and procedures [3][6]. Strategic Rationale - The capital reduction is part of the company's strategic planning to enhance internal resource allocation, improve asset structure, and increase operational flexibility and risk resistance [6]. - The company aims to lower inter-company funding costs and improve capital efficiency, which is expected to enhance overall net profit [6]. Financial Impact - The capital reduction will not change the scope of the company's consolidated financial statements, nor will it significantly impact the company's overall business development and profitability [6].

Summary of the Conference Call for Tongwei Co., Ltd. Company Overview - **Company Name**: Tongwei Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Aquaculture feed and solar energy - **Founded**: 1982 - **Listing**: Listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2004 - **Business Model**: Dual main business model focusing on agriculture and renewable energy Key Points and Arguments Industry Challenges - The solar energy industry faced significant challenges in 2024, with a notable decline in prices across the supply chain, leading to widespread losses among industry participants [3][7][8] - The aquaculture feed industry also experienced a contraction, with a total production of 31.5 million tons, marking a decrease of approximately 660,000 tons, the first decline in five years [7][8] Financial Performance - In 2024, Tongwei reported a revenue of 91.994 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.87% year-on-year, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 7.039 billion yuan, a decline of 151.86% [8][15] - The company achieved cash dividends exceeding 4 billion yuan in 2024, with cumulative dividends since listing surpassing 25 billion yuan [4] Business Segments - **Solar Energy**: - Tongwei is a leading producer of high-purity polysilicon, with a sales volume of 467,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.76% [8] - The company maintained its position as the world's largest solar cell manufacturer, with a shipment of 87.68 GW, a growth of 8.7% [9] - The solar industry saw a 35.9% increase in installed capacity, reaching 530 GW in 2024 [7] - **Aquaculture Feed**: - The company reported a total feed sales volume of 6.8686 million tons, with significant growth in specialized aquaculture feeds [13][14] Strategic Initiatives - Tongwei is focusing on enhancing its core competitiveness in both main business areas, emphasizing technology innovation and market expansion [8][10] - The company is actively exploring overseas markets, with a 98% increase in overseas sales in 2024, particularly in the Middle East and emerging markets [10][18] Technological Advancements - The company is investing in R&D, with a significant increase in patent applications, including a 135.59% rise in authorized patents [11] - Tongwei is advancing its N-type technology, with plans to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs [11][25][36] Financial Strategy - The company is prioritizing financial safety, with a focus on controlling capital expenditures and optimizing its capital structure [16][28] - Tongwei has introduced strategic investors to strengthen its financial position and enhance operational flexibility [20][21] Market Outlook - Despite current challenges, the company remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of the solar energy industry, driven by global energy transition goals [16][23] - The company is committed to maintaining its leadership in the solar market while adapting to changing market dynamics and technological advancements [25][32] Additional Important Information - The company has established a global innovation R&D center to focus on advanced solar technologies and materials [12][13] - Tongwei is actively addressing the challenges posed by trade barriers in international markets, particularly in the context of U.S. tariffs on solar products [18][19] This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments discussed during the conference call, highlighting the challenges and strategic responses of Tongwei Co., Ltd. in the aquaculture and solar energy sectors.