2026年伊始，全球金属期货市场迎来强劲"开门红"。 全球工业金属涨势再度升级，伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜、铝、锌、镍、锡、铅六大金属期货价格于 周二（1月6日）全线飙升，其中，LME铜期货周二创下了新高；LME镍期货盘中涨幅突破10%，周三 再度冲高至18800美元/吨。 国内市场资金同步涌入有色金属赛道，1月7日，国内商品期市收盘跟涨，工业金属品种涨幅居前，沪镍 收盘涨停；沪锡、氧化铝分别收涨5.3%、4.97%。 "铜、镍等有色金属因供应担忧价格大涨。"一位金属期货分析师对记者称，短期内金属价格受供应扰动 和资金推动持续上涨。这轮工业金属的涨势能否持续，中长期仍需关注全球经济复苏节奏及供需再平衡 进程，若供应端扰动缓解或需求预期转弱，金属价格或将面临回调压力。 此外，近期委内瑞拉局势骤变，地缘突发事件引发全球资本市场对资源供应稳定性的担忧，也成为点燃 有色板块上涨的"导火索"，能源供应的不确定性进一步传导至有色产业链，有色板块冲高行情或继续演 绎。 从实际供需来看，当前市场更呈现"预期紧缩"与"现实过剩"交织的复杂格局。 国际镍研究组织（INSG）发布的报告预计，2026年全球镍市场需求量达382万吨， ...

中国将会带来文明级的大转向 未来世界的核心竞争力在哪？答案或许超出很多人预期——不在欧美，而在中国的电气化转型里。当西方还在纠结要不要推进能源转型时，中国早已启动全 面电气化布局，这场变革不仅不可逆，更在悄悄改写全球格局。在这场变革中，中国将会如何改变世界能源？ AI领域的突破更让优势翻倍。中国拿下全球七成AI专利，聚集了半数AI人才。电气化是新能源文明的血液，AI是大脑，两者结合让中国在这场变革中如虎 添翼。也正因如此，中国才能构建起全球唯一的全链条电气化工业体系，从采矿、材料到装备、AI管理，全环节自主可控。 我们先从历史规律说起。一个国家能否领跑时代，关键看能否抓住文明转型的核心机遇。 第一次工业革命，英国依靠蒸汽机站稳脚跟；第二次工业革命，美国凭借电力和石油掌握话语权；第三次科技浪潮，硅谷用数字化占据高地。现在，第四次 能源革命的赛道已经铺开，中国正站在领跑位置。 这里要明确，中国的电气化不是局部试点，而是整个国民经济向全面电气化社会转型。这种规模和决心，全球独一份。美国有转型想法，但缺乏完整产业链 支撑；欧洲理念先进，却受制于产能不足；日本背负历史包袱，印度则没有成熟技术体系。 举个实际例子。全球新 ...

关注 「电动车公社」 和我们一起重新思考汽车 今天，社长想和大家聊一台有点特别的车， 沃尔沃 X C70 。 之所以说它特别，一方面是因为在销量成绩出来之前，几乎没人认为它能站上细分榜单前 5 名的位置。在一票中国品牌里，更是显得有些"格格不入"。 毕竟在 XC70 之前，没有任何一台豪华品牌的插混车型，能够突破 5000 台的月销量。 另一方面， XC70 作为一台 "中欧混血" 车型，可能是史上风味最为独特的沃尔沃： 它在北欧的理性和内敛之余，多了几分感性和奔放；在简约的外表下，又隐藏着一个有趣的灵魂。 那么， XC70 究竟有何过人之处？又能否撑起沃尔沃的未来？ 今天，我们就来简单聊一聊。 01. 绕过燃油车的大山？ 该怎么给插混车定价， 对传统品牌来说，一直都是个大难题。 价格定低了， 根本不挣钱。 毕竟 PHEV 相当于在燃油车的基础上增加了一整套三电系统，这都是实打实的成本。哪怕在德国当地卖的"国产车型"，也一样要遵循 电池越大、价格越贵 的原则。 燃油版 5 系和奥迪 A6L ，已经把裸车价打到了 20 多万。如果插混版把价格拉到 3 开头，又要碰上享界 S9/S9T 、腾势 Z9/Z9GT 这 ...

核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 2026 年 1 月 6 日 供应扰动加剧，铜价延续上行 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 24 铜月报 ⚫ 宏观方面，10月如期降息后美联储内部分歧加 大，在政府停摆追平历史记录并缺少关键数据 指引的背景下多位官员对12月降息转向谨慎立 核心观点及策略 核心观点及策略 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 宏观方面，虽然2026年一季度降息预期稍有回 落但美联储整体仍处于宽松周期之中，特朗普 即将提名新任主席令市场担忧美联储独立性下 降，在全球电气化转型和AI科技驱动产业革命 的背景下，铜作为具备优秀导电性能的关键金 属，在支撑数据中心、电动汽车及基础电网设施 ...

"双子星"车型持续发力，稳固市场地位 沃尔沃XC60作为沃尔沃品牌的经典车型，凭借其均衡的产品力和出色的口碑，始终占据豪华中型SUV 市场的重要位置。12月，沃尔沃XC60销量达到4,683辆，与全新XC70组成的"双子星"车型表现抢眼，双 车合计销量达到9,671辆，再创新高，连续第三个月稳居豪华中型-中大型SUV第一梯队。 1月5日，沃尔沃汽车今日公布2025年12月销量数据，中国大陆市场共计售出16,063辆，环比上涨 12.8%，全年累计销量达到149,166辆，展现出稳健的市场表现。 全新XC70持续热销，驱动品牌增长 全新XC70自上市以来便备受瞩目，凭借其独特的设计、卓越的性能和领先的科技配置，迅速成为沃尔 沃品牌的销量担当。12月，全新XC70蝉联品牌销冠，销量达到4,988辆，上市3个月以来累计销量突破 14,199辆，领跑豪华品牌混动车型。 全新XC70助推沃尔沃新能源占比实现跨越性增长 沃尔沃汽车始终致力于推动可持续发展，积极推动电气化转型。自XC70上市以来，第四季度沃尔沃新 能源车型销量达到15,328辆，占比达到34.7%，实现跨越性增长。 展望未来，沃尔沃汽车将继续深耕中国豪华汽 ...

在国际能源署(IEA)最新发布的《2025年世界能源就业报告》中，一个矛盾现象引人深思：全球能源行 业正以前所未有的速度创造就业机会，但同时却面临日益严峻的技能型劳动力短缺问题。 数据显示，2024年全球能源领域就业人数突破7600万，就业增长率达2.2%，几乎是全球整体经济增速 的两倍。过去5年，能源行业贡献了全球净增就业岗位的2.4%，成为全球经济中就业创造的重要支柱。 电力行业的崛起尤为显著。该领域不仅贡献了近四分之三的能源新增就业岗位，更已超越传统燃料供应 部门，成为能源产业中最大的雇主。太阳能光伏产业的蓬勃发展是这一增长的主要驱动力，而核电、电 网建设和储能领域的快速扩张也为就业市场注入了新活力。与此同时，全球经济的电气化转型正在重塑 就业格局，仅2024年，电动汽车制造和电池行业的就业岗位就激增近80万个，展现出新能源产业链对劳 动力的强劲需求。 与此同时，新合格劳动力的供给远远跟不上行业需求。为阻止技能人才缺口在2030年前继续扩大，全球 能源行业需要将新合格从业者数量提升40%。据估算，这需要每年增加26亿美元的投资，虽仅占全球教 育支出的0.1%，但很可能产生巨大的经济社会回报。 报告指出， ...

文 | 钱钱 编辑 | 阿景 伦敦铜价突破11700美元/吨，沪铜也站上91000元/吨，好多做铜生意的老板私下说，这价格涨得让人看 不懂。 美国"锁铜三板斧"，从库存到产业链的围堵 价格疯涨背后，有人发现美国手里攥着不少货。 全球交易所里62%的铜库存都在美国仓库，足足43万吨，这可不是小数目。 这么多货捏在手里，市场不慌才怪。 更让人头疼的是，美国还拿"国家安全"说事，搞起了调查。 这一查，全球贸易商都怕了，赶紧把铜往美国运，结果亚洲这边好多企业想提货，仓库里空空如也。 中国企业最惨，想买铜吧，价格被炒得老高，想卖加工好的产品，成本太高又赚不到钱，等于两头受 气。 铜价跟坐了火箭似的往上冲。 关税大棒也没闲着，美国放话说要加50%的税，这直接打乱了铜的贸易流向。 不光贸易端，美国还在源头动手。 拉着刚果金搞合作，又给中国和南美国家的铜矿合作使绊子，连冶炼设备都不让卖，摆明了想卡死资源 这条路。 上游炼铜的企业更难，矿价涨得比铜价还快，"矿冶倒挂"成了常态，有龙头企业上个月亏了一个多亿。 中游加工企业也别想好过，原材料成本占了70%，利润薄得跟纸一样。 美国盯着铜不放，其实是盯上了新能源。 新能源车用的铜比 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite facing challenges such as macroeconomic downturns and uncertainties in global trade tariffs, the company reported stable financial performance with a 3% year-on-year increase in profit attributable to shareholders and maintained its interim dividend at 17 Hong Kong cents per share, consistent with the previous year [2] Financial Performance - For the first half of the fiscal year 2025/26 (ending September 30, 2025), the company's total revenue was $1.8335 billion, a slight decrease of 1% from $1.8542 billion in the same period last year; excluding foreign exchange effects, revenue fell by 2% [2][4] - Gross profit reached $440.7 million, with a gross margin increase from 23.6% to 24.0%, primarily due to lower direct labor costs, tighter raw material prices, and favorable foreign exchange movements, which offset pressures from price reductions and rising wages [2][4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 3% to $133.3 million, with fully diluted earnings per share at 14.21 cents; adjusted EBITDA was $158.7 million, accounting for 8.7% of revenue [2][4] Cash Flow and Financial Position - The company reported strong operating free cash flow, rising from $144.4 million to $174.5 million, mainly due to a decrease in working capital [2][4] - As of September 30, 2025, cash reserves stood at $932.5 million, with a total debt-to-capital ratio of 11%, down 1 percentage point from the end of the previous year; net cash was $572.8 million, and interest coverage improved to 21.3 times [3][4] Business Segments - The automotive products segment, which is the core business, accounted for 84% of total revenue, experiencing a 3% decline in fixed exchange rates; the Asia-Pacific region saw a 6% drop, primarily due to market share loss among joint ventures in China [5] - The industrial products segment represented 16% of total revenue, remaining stable year-on-year in fixed exchange rates, with varied regional performance: a 7% increase in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, while Asia-Pacific and the Americas saw declines of 5% and 3%, respectively [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company is adjusting its business by integrating production processes, focusing on highly automated assembly lines and digital processes, and shifting new business development towards rapidly expanding Chinese manufacturers [6] - The company is actively pursuing new opportunities in the context of the global automotive industry's electrification transition and trade policy changes, including a joint venture with Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical Co., Ltd. to focus on high-performance humanoid robot components [6]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a fundamental shift in the strategy of data center developers in the U.S., moving from reliance on utility companies for power supply to building their own energy generation facilities, particularly using natural gas [2][3][5]. Group 1: Data Center Capacity and Expansion - As of mid-October, the planned capacity of U.S. data centers has surged to 245 gigawatts (GW), with a significant increase of 45 GW in the third quarter alone [3][5]. - Texas has emerged as a focal point for this investment, accounting for over a quarter of the total planned capacity, with 67 GW specifically in Texas [3][4]. Group 2: Shift in Development Strategy - The primary factor influencing data center site selection has shifted from proximity to fiber networks and end-users to ensuring reliable power supply [5]. - Developers are planning gigawatt-scale data center parks in regions like West Texas, Pennsylvania, and Wyoming, leveraging local natural gas resources for self-built power plants [5][6]. Group 3: Market Implications - The trend towards building natural gas power plants is expected to increase natural gas consumption, potentially leading to higher long-term prices for natural gas and impacting electricity and gas bills nationwide [5][6]. - The construction of these independent projects may exacerbate supply constraints for power turbines, posing reliability challenges for other industries reliant on the grid [6]. Group 4: Capital Market Dynamics - New development strategies are distorting capital markets, with mega-projects costing over $17 billion attracting 42% of capital deployment, despite representing only 2% of total projects [7]. - Notable projects like Project Jupiter in New Mexico ($160 billion) and Project Kestrel in Missouri ($100 billion) are utilizing innovative financial instruments to secure tax incentives, significantly exceeding traditional tech giants' investment levels [7].

Core Insights - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the domestic wind power installation is expected to maintain a growth rate of 10%-20% in 2026, supported by saturated orders and stable prices [1][2] - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers is improving quarterly, with export growth boosting performance, reflecting a synchronized recovery in both domestic and international markets [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas expansion and AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) as key focus areas for 2026, with major domestic power equipment companies making breakthroughs in overseas markets and innovative products [1] Wind Power Sector - The wind turbine sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with significant growth in offshore wind installations and tenders, leading to increased orders and performance for related companies [2] - Key companies to watch in the wind power sector include Goldwind Technology, Sany Renewable Energy, Times New Materials, Daikin Heavy Industries, Oriental Cable, and Haile Wind Power [2] Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery supply chain is expected to see a reversal in the downward price trend, with significant recovery in profitability anticipated for most products in 2026 [2] - New technologies such as steel-shell batteries, silicon anodes, and large energy storage cells are expected to achieve mass supply in 2026, while solid-state battery technology is accelerating towards industrialization [2] - Recommended companies in the lithium battery sector include CATL, EVE Energy, Zhongchuang Innovation, Zhuhai Guanyu, Tianci Materials, Enjie, Dingsheng Technology, and Xiamen Tungsten [2] Energy Storage Market - The electrification transition is driving explosive growth in the global energy storage market, with domestic market demand leading to a surge in storage orders [3] - The demand for large-scale energy storage in the U.S. is increasing due to power supply shortages, while unstable grid conditions in Europe are also boosting storage needs [3] - Companies to focus on in the energy storage sector include CATL, EVE Energy, Sungrow Power, and Deye [3] Photovoltaic Sector - The photovoltaic supply side is undergoing adjustments, with new technologies such as silver-free materials and perovskite layers gaining attention [3] - The profitability of silicon materials is expected to recover, with silver-free products nearing mass production by 2026 [3] - Key companies in the photovoltaic sector include GCL-Poly Energy, Xinte Energy, Tongwei Co., and Juhua Materials [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on new technology investment opportunities, such as solid-state batteries and flexible converters [3] - Emphasis is placed on overseas expansion and performance improvement for leading companies in lithium batteries and wind turbine components [3] - Long-term beneficiaries in green electricity alternatives include secondary distribution equipment and charging pile operations [3]