海底捞作为中国餐饮龙头，年底估值约为 17 倍，具备安全边际，且股 息率接近 5%，使其成为具有投资吸引力的标的。 海底捞发展历程可分为三个阶段：扩张初期（经典牛油锅等产品），疫 情期间的深度调整期（"红石榴计划"），以及当前的新品牌探索期 （宴请烤肉等）。 火锅是中餐最大赛道，2024 年市场规模约 6,000 亿元，占中餐 14.5%。火锅行业标准化程度高、运营效率高、生命周期长，海底捞作 为龙头市占率约 6.9%。 海底捞的核心竞争壁垒在于服务管理能力和供应链优势，包括极致服务 （亲子空间、美甲等）、师徒制管理、神秘人巡店以及一体化供应链体 系。 海底捞主品牌门店企稳回升，翻台率逐步回升，同时积极探索加盟模式 和新品牌（如宴请烤肉、小火锅），未来发展潜力较大。 预计海底捞明后年归母净利润分别为 48 亿和 53 亿，目前 PE 约为 17 倍，加上 95%以上的分红，投资收益相对有保障。 Q&A 为什么选择在当前时点发布海底捞的深度报告？ 今年（2025 年）对于海底捞来说是经营上略有承压的一年，但在低基数下， 明年（2026 年）的成长和业绩压力会有所减弱。我们认为公司明年的业绩将 有所改善。此外，海 ...

Summary of Conference Call on the Restaurant Industry and Haidilao Industry Overview - The restaurant industry experienced a year-on-year decline in 2025, primarily due to the absence of consumer subsidies that were present in the same period last year, which ranged from 0.2 to 0.3 [4][3] - The price war among delivery platforms has also impacted the industry, with Haidilao opting not to participate in significant discounts, leading to a decrease in customer traffic [5][4] - The average table turnover rate in the restaurant industry was approximately 4 times in July and August 2025, consistent with national averages [2] Haidilao's Performance and Strategies - Despite pressure on table turnover rates, Haidilao maintained stable gross margins through cost control measures [4][8] - The company anticipates that the implementation of mandatory social security policies in September could increase labor costs by about 3 percentage points, but it does not plan to raise prices [8][9] - Haidilao is focusing on optimizing store locations and sizes to enhance space utilization and investment returns [10] - The company has lowered the threshold for franchise operations, resulting in new franchise stores performing comparably to company-owned stores, indicating acceptance of the new policies [12][13] Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment in the restaurant industry has intensified, with brands like Banlu Hotpot seeking to go public, creating pressure on existing players [11] - Haidilao aims to avoid direct competition with Banlu Hotpot, which targets a higher-end market, while Haidilao focuses on the mass market [11] Cost Management and Future Outlook - The increase in social security costs is manageable and will not significantly raise overall operational costs [15] - Haidilao's external delivery business remains limited, as the product offerings are not well-suited for delivery, and the company prefers to focus on scaling its sub-brands [14] - The company has implemented innovative strategies to enhance table turnover, such as themed events and promotions, which have yielded positive results in specific periods [18] - The overall market environment is challenging for new restaurant brands, with cautious consumer spending impacting the development of new brands [17] - The average customer spending for mass-market hotpot has been declining, while the spending for banquet-style barbecue remains stable at around 100-110 yuan [17] Conclusion - The restaurant industry is navigating a challenging landscape with various pressures, including competition and changing consumer behavior. Haidilao's strategic focus on cost control, franchise expansion, and innovative marketing is aimed at maintaining its market position and improving performance in the second half of 2025 [20][21]