执业证书编号：S0740522030001 Email：hect@zts.com.cn 分析师：赖思琪 火锅行业：全面转向价值增长，地域风味及小火锅带动新增量 执业证书编号：S0740525090001 Email：laisq@zts.com.cn | 上市公司数 | 128 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 44,614.24 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 44,003.89 | 食品饮料 证券研究报告/行业专题报告 2026 年 02 月 27 日 | 评级： 增持（维持） | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：何长天 | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 20 ...

Core Insights - The hot pot industry is projected to grow significantly, with an estimated market size of approximately 619.9 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 659.9 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a sustained high growth rate [1] - The number of hot pot establishments in China has reached 431,000 as of December 4, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.59% [3] - Regional hot pot varieties are gaining traction, with platforms like Douyin amplifying local flavors through short videos and live streaming, leading to a nationwide consumption trend [5] Market Growth and Trends - The Sichuan-Chongqing hot pot remains dominant, holding a 57.8% market share, although its overall share has decreased by 3% due to the emergence of niche categories [3] - The rise of regional hot pot opportunities is evident, with specific orders from Yunnan, Beijing, and seafood hot pots increasing by 0.49%, 0.61%, and 0.41% respectively [5] - The hot pot industry is entering a new phase of refined and value-driven growth, with consumer preferences shifting towards mid-range pricing and a focus on emotional value [14][16] Consumer Behavior - The concept of "emotional price ratio" is becoming a key driver in consumer choices, with social needs accounting for 46.72% of hot pot consumption demand [16] - There is a notable increase in "one-person meal" scenarios, with small hot pot orders growing from approximately 1.57 million in January 2025 to about 2.9 million by October 2025 [18] - The average spending in the hot pot sector is shifting towards more affordable options, with the mainstream price range (61-100 yuan) expected to reach 51% by 2025 [14] Digital Transformation - Douyin has become an essential platform for hot pot businesses, with a 69% increase in transaction value and a 78% rise in order volume from January to October 2025 [20] - Live streaming has emerged as a significant growth engine, with exposure rates increasing by 150.37% and transaction values rising by 53.21% during the same period [22] - Hot pot brands are leveraging Douyin's resources for brand exposure, influencer partnerships, and participation in platform events to drive sales [24][26] Industry Evolution - The hot pot industry is transitioning from homogeneous competition to value-driven differentiation, focusing on product quality, cultural significance, and consumer experience [28] - The integration of hot pot with cultural tourism is enhancing local economies and promoting cultural heritage, as seen in events like the "Kunming Mushroom Festival" [29] - The industry's growth is characterized by a comprehensive competition model that includes ingredient quality, cultural depth, experiential dining, and collaborative industry efforts [29]

Core Insights - The small hot pot market is experiencing significant growth driven by consumer demand for cost-effective dining options, with search interest for "small hot pot" increasing from under 500,000 in early 2024 to approximately 1.5 million by November 2025 [1][2] - Major restaurant brands are entering the small hot pot segment, with companies like Haidilao and Xinrongji launching new products and acquiring existing brands to enhance their market presence [2][3] Industry Trends - The small hot pot market is projected to reach a scale of 400 billion yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14% [7] - The report indicates that the hot pot market overall is expected to grow to 6.5 trillion yuan by 2025, highlighting the importance of small hot pots as a significant sub-sector [7] Competitive Landscape - Haidilao has acquired the self-service small hot pot brand Jugaogao, emphasizing the importance of high cost-performance in its strategy [2] - Xinrongji has reintroduced its small hot pot offerings in cities like Beijing and Xi'an, focusing on premium seafood and goat meat packages priced at 398 yuan per person [3] - Other brands, such as Qingfeng Baozipu and Yang Guofu, are also entering the small hot pot market with competitive pricing and unique offerings [3] Quality Focus - Brands are increasingly emphasizing quality in their offerings, with examples like Yiwei Feiniu Hot Pot promising 100% authentic beef sourced from various countries [5] - Weila Hot Pot is focusing on fresh ingredients, ensuring daily preparation of its menu items to maintain quality [7] - Innovations in broth options are also being pursued, with brands introducing diverse flavors to differentiate themselves in the market [7][8] Challenges and Opportunities - Despite rapid growth, the small hot pot sector faces challenges related to product homogeneity, prompting the need for innovation in ingredients, broth flavors, and branding strategies [8] - The industry is encouraged to enhance brand recognition through storytelling, store design, and packaging, while also improving product quality through supply chain management [8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a gradual recovery in the food and beverage sector, suggesting a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the industry [6]. Core Insights - The beverage market is experiencing a surge in demand for health-oriented products, particularly turmeric drinks and low-GI foods, driven by younger consumers' health consciousness [2][10]. - The approval of elderberry anthocyanins as a new food ingredient is expected to unlock a significant market potential, with a projected global market size of $960 million by 2027 [4]. - The report highlights the ongoing price wars in the beverage industry, with major brands signaling a trend towards price reductions, which may impact profit margins across the supply chain [9]. Industry Trends - The popularity of turmeric drinks among young consumers is attributed to their perceived health benefits, despite concerns over taste and sugar content [2]. - The rise of the health economy is evident, with a significant increase in sales of health-related products, such as herbal teas and functional foods, particularly among millennials and Gen Z [2]. - The elderberry anthocyanins market is anticipated to grow rapidly, with opportunities for product innovation in immune support and gut health [4]. - The low-GI food market is projected to reach ¥176.2 billion by 2024, driven by increasing health awareness and the prevalence of diabetes among younger populations [10]. - The beverage industry is facing a structural shift, with a focus on "precision" beverages that cater to specific consumer needs and preferences [14]. Brand Dynamics - Kunlun Mountain Mineral Water has entered a strategic partnership to expand its market presence in Hong Kong, leveraging local resources and distribution channels [16]. - Jiahe Foods is transitioning from a contract manufacturer to a consumer brand, facing challenges in profitability due to rising raw material costs and increased marketing expenses [19]. - Vitasoy International reported a decline in revenue, particularly in the mainland market, as competition in the plant-based milk sector intensifies [20]. - Tian Shili's "medical-grade" sugar-free tea has achieved a high repurchase rate by targeting pre-diabetic consumers, showcasing the potential for functional beverages in the health market [21]. - The new brand "Bie Xiang Bao Bao" has gained traction in the sugar-free tea market, achieving significant sales growth through innovative product offerings [22].

Summary of Haidilao Conference Call Company Overview - Haidilao is a leading player in the Chinese restaurant industry, with an estimated valuation of approximately 17 times earnings by the end of the year and a dividend yield close to 5%, making it an attractive investment target [2][3]. Development Stages - The development of Haidilao can be divided into three stages: 1. **Initial Expansion**: Focused on classic products like the beef tallow hot pot. 2. **Deep Adjustment During Pandemic**: Implemented the "Pomegranate Plan" to adapt to market changes. 3. **Current New Brand Exploration**: Actively exploring new brands such as "Banquet Barbecue" [2][4]. Industry Position - The hot pot segment is the largest in Chinese cuisine, with a projected market size of approximately 600 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 14.5% of the entire Chinese dining market. The hot pot industry is characterized by high standardization, operational efficiency, and long lifecycle, positioning Haidilao with a market share of about 6.9% [2][5][6]. Core Competitive Advantages - Haidilao's core competitive barriers include: - **Service Management Capability**: Known for exceptional service, including family-friendly spaces and additional services like nail care. - **Mentorship Management System**: Ensures standardized service and operational management through a unique apprenticeship model. - **Mystery Shopper Program**: Maintains service quality at the front end of operations. - **Integrated Supply Chain**: Manages everything from ingredient supply to store decoration, ensuring quality stability and cost control [2][7]. Future Growth Potential - The main brand's stores have stabilized and are showing a gradual recovery in table turnover rates. The company is also exploring franchise models to expand its reach in more cities and regions. New brands like "Banquet Barbecue" have made significant progress, and the exploration of small hot pot brands is ongoing. This positions Haidilao for substantial future growth potential [2][8]. - Projected net profits for the next two years are estimated at 4.8 billion yuan and 5.3 billion yuan, respectively, with a current PE ratio of about 17 times and a generous dividend payout of over 95%, providing a relatively secure investment return [2][8].

Core Insights - The small hot pot segment is experiencing a resurgence, driven by the "one person, one pot" model, with major restaurant chains entering the market [1][4] - The market size for small hot pots is projected to reach 40 billion yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14% [4][2] Market Trends - The search index for "small hot pot" has increased from less than 500,000 in early 2024 to approximately 1.5 million by November 2025 [2] - On social media platforms, the "small hot pot" topic has garnered significant attention, with Douyin videos reaching over 2.47 billion views and Xiaohongshu accumulating over 360 million views [2] Competitive Landscape - As of November 2025, there are approximately 48,000 small hot pot outlets in China, accounting for about 10% of the total hot pot restaurants [4] - The number of small hot pot-related enterprises has exceeded 24,000, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [4] Growth Drivers - Consumer demand for cost-effective dining options is a key factor driving the growth of small hot pots, as average spending in the restaurant sector has decreased from 34.4 yuan in January 2025 to 33.2 yuan in October 2025 [7] - Intense competition in the hot pot market has led brands to adopt low-price strategies, further accelerating the development of the small hot pot segment [9] - Improvements in the hot pot supply chain have provided essential support for the rapid growth of the small hot pot market [11] Brand Development - Notable brands in the small hot pot sector include Weilai, which has over 1,000 outlets, and Xiaobubub, with more than 700 locations [14] - Established hot pot brands like Haidilao and Yang Guofu are also launching small hot pot sub-brands and products to capture market share [17] Consumer Preferences - The small hot pot market is diversifying into various price segments, with 31.2% of outlets priced between 20 and 40 yuan, and 34.5% priced above 60 yuan [19] - Brands are increasingly focusing on quality and health, introducing high-quality ingredients and unique dining experiences to attract consumers [24][26] Future Directions - The small hot pot segment is evolving towards specialization, quality enhancement, and fast-casual dining [20] - Brands are exploring new growth paths, including one-person meal packages and enhancing dining experiences to meet social interaction needs [36][40]

Core Insights - The 2025 China Entrepreneur Influence Entrepreneur Conference is held from December 5 to 7 in Beijing, focusing on the theme "Emergence·Infinity - Co-creating New Forms of Intelligent Business" [1][4] Company Insights - The founder and chairman of Xiaobai Xiaobai Group, He Guangqi, emphasizes that the core of a company's longevity is its product quality [3][6] - Xiaobai Xiaobai has been a recognized hot pot brand for over 30 years, with a strong commitment to product consistency [3][6] - To enhance food quality, Xiaobai Xiaobai has fully acquired a leading national slaughterhouse and operates a nearly 40,000 square meter seasoning factory to ensure product reliability [3][6]

Group 1 - The hot pot industry is experiencing significant growth, with the market size expected to reach 650 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 5.6% year-on-year increase in 2024 [5][12] - The emergence of "small hot pot" has gained popularity among young consumers due to its price advantage and casual dining experience, with 23,000 small hot pot outlets accounting for 5.5% of the total hot pot stores in China by July 2025 [8][9] - The trend towards "fresh" ingredients is reshaping consumer preferences, with brands like Haidilao focusing on fresh-cut offerings and transparency in food preparation [16] Group 2 - The hot pot market is characterized by diverse regional styles, with Sichuan and Chongqing hot pot maintaining a dominant position, while Guizhou sour soup hot pot has gained traction, showing a 118.14% increase in search interest on Douyin [13][16] - The competition is shifting from price wars to value creation, with brands emphasizing unique regional flavors and immersive dining experiences to attract consumers [22] - Innovative "hot pot+" concepts are emerging, enhancing the dining experience through thematic environments and collaborations with popular IPs, such as Haidilao's partnerships with various entertainment franchises [18][19]

Group 1 - The hot pot industry is experiencing significant growth, with the market size expected to reach 617.5 billion yuan in 2024, a 5.6% increase year-on-year, and projected to reach 650 billion yuan in 2025 [3][4] - The "small hot pot" segment is emerging as a strong player, appealing to younger consumers with its price advantage and casual dining experience, with 23,000 small hot pot outlets accounting for 5.5% of total hot pot stores by July 2025 [3][4] - The demand for fresh ingredients is driving competition, with brands like Haidilao focusing on fresh-cut offerings and transparency in food preparation to attract customers [6][9] Group 2 - Traditional hot pot styles, particularly Sichuan and Chongqing hot pots, remain dominant, holding a 31.3% market share, while regional flavors like Guizhou sour soup hot pot are gaining popularity, evidenced by a 118.14% increase in search interest on Douyin [6][9] - The industry is shifting from price competition to value competition, emphasizing unique regional flavors and immersive dining experiences to attract consumers [9] - Innovative dining experiences, such as themed collaborations and unique restaurant concepts, are becoming essential for brands to differentiate themselves in a saturated market [8][9]

Core Insights - The "i-person" label has evolved from representing introversion to embodying a lifestyle characterized by selective social engagement and prioritizing personal comfort and happiness [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The "one-person dining" market in China is projected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan by 2025, indicating a significant shift towards solo dining experiences [3] - The pet economy, particularly for cats, has surpassed 100 billion yuan, reflecting a growing trend of low-social-energy emotional connections among consumers [3] - The Chinese instant retail market is expected to reach 751.5 billion yuan by 2024 and surpass 1 trillion yuan by 2026, showcasing the demand for convenience and reduced social interaction [21][22] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly favoring low-pressure social interactions facilitated by online platforms, such as gaming companions and AI chatbots, which cater to the "i-person" preference for controlled social environments [5] - The rise of self-service retail and hotels aligns with the "i-person" desire for minimal interaction, with the self-service retail market projected to reach 128 billion yuan by 2024, growing at 40.2% year-on-year [12][15] - The surge in self-study rooms, with a 523.7% increase in registered businesses in 2023, highlights the demand for focused, undisturbed environments for learning [18][20] Group 3: Technological Integration - The global AR/VR market is expected to reach $39.7 billion by 2029, with China leading the growth at over 40%, indicating a strong preference for immersive, independent entertainment experiences among younger consumers [7][10] - AI applications, such as Saylo AI, are becoming essential tools for "i-persons," providing companionship and emotional support through interactive experiences [5][8] Group 4: Emotional and Psychological Aspects - The trend of collecting designer toys among younger generations serves as a form of emotional expression and connection, with the market expected to exceed 80 billion yuan by 2025 [10] - The "i-person" economy reflects a broader cultural shift towards valuing personal space, emotional well-being, and self-determination in consumer choices [23]