来源：餐饮老板内参 总第4445期 作者 | 餐饮老板内参内参君 地域特色火锅崛起， 千亿市场打开增长新窗口 2025年，火锅行业与餐饮大盘同频，全面转向价值增长。 当前，火锅依然是引领着餐饮创新与增长的第一大品类。据Frost&Sullivan数据，2024年火锅行业规模约6199亿元，预计2025年增长 至6599亿元，始终保持高增速。 火锅门店数整体同样呈增长趋势。天眼查最新统计数据显示，截至2025年12月4日，国内火锅相关企业存量已达43.10万家，较上年同 期增长4.59%。 其中，川渝火锅始终是最稳固的基本盘，以57.8%的门店数量占比稳坐行业头把交椅。在这一高基数之上，川渝火锅也显现出两大变 化：一是整体占比较此前下滑3%，核心原因在于细分品类的分流；二是川渝火锅大类下衍生出水火锅、茶火锅等诸多创新方向，为 传统品类注入新活力。 市场精细化发展的同时，地域火锅的机会窗口随之打开。这一趋势在抖音平台被内容放大和加速，地方风味通过短视频和直播突破地 域限制，形成全国性消费潮流。 抖音生活服务数据显示，2025年云南火锅订单量占比同比增长0.49%；老北京火锅订单量占比同比增长0.61%；海鲜火锅订 ...

Core Insights - The small hot pot market is experiencing significant growth driven by consumer demand for cost-effective dining options, with search interest for "small hot pot" increasing from under 500,000 in early 2024 to approximately 1.5 million by November 2025 [1][2] - Major restaurant brands are entering the small hot pot segment, with companies like Haidilao and Xinrongji launching new products and acquiring existing brands to enhance their market presence [2][3] Industry Trends - The small hot pot market is projected to reach a scale of 400 billion yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14% [7] - The report indicates that the hot pot market overall is expected to grow to 6.5 trillion yuan by 2025, highlighting the importance of small hot pots as a significant sub-sector [7] Competitive Landscape - Haidilao has acquired the self-service small hot pot brand Jugaogao, emphasizing the importance of high cost-performance in its strategy [2] - Xinrongji has reintroduced its small hot pot offerings in cities like Beijing and Xi'an, focusing on premium seafood and goat meat packages priced at 398 yuan per person [3] - Other brands, such as Qingfeng Baozipu and Yang Guofu, are also entering the small hot pot market with competitive pricing and unique offerings [3] Quality Focus - Brands are increasingly emphasizing quality in their offerings, with examples like Yiwei Feiniu Hot Pot promising 100% authentic beef sourced from various countries [5] - Weila Hot Pot is focusing on fresh ingredients, ensuring daily preparation of its menu items to maintain quality [7] - Innovations in broth options are also being pursued, with brands introducing diverse flavors to differentiate themselves in the market [7][8] Challenges and Opportunities - Despite rapid growth, the small hot pot sector faces challenges related to product homogeneity, prompting the need for innovation in ingredients, broth flavors, and branding strategies [8] - The industry is encouraged to enhance brand recognition through storytelling, store design, and packaging, while also improving product quality through supply chain management [8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a gradual recovery in the food and beverage sector, suggesting a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the industry [6]. Core Insights - The beverage market is experiencing a surge in demand for health-oriented products, particularly turmeric drinks and low-GI foods, driven by younger consumers' health consciousness [2][10]. - The approval of elderberry anthocyanins as a new food ingredient is expected to unlock a significant market potential, with a projected global market size of $960 million by 2027 [4]. - The report highlights the ongoing price wars in the beverage industry, with major brands signaling a trend towards price reductions, which may impact profit margins across the supply chain [9]. Industry Trends - The popularity of turmeric drinks among young consumers is attributed to their perceived health benefits, despite concerns over taste and sugar content [2]. - The rise of the health economy is evident, with a significant increase in sales of health-related products, such as herbal teas and functional foods, particularly among millennials and Gen Z [2]. - The elderberry anthocyanins market is anticipated to grow rapidly, with opportunities for product innovation in immune support and gut health [4]. - The low-GI food market is projected to reach ¥176.2 billion by 2024, driven by increasing health awareness and the prevalence of diabetes among younger populations [10]. - The beverage industry is facing a structural shift, with a focus on "precision" beverages that cater to specific consumer needs and preferences [14]. Brand Dynamics - Kunlun Mountain Mineral Water has entered a strategic partnership to expand its market presence in Hong Kong, leveraging local resources and distribution channels [16]. - Jiahe Foods is transitioning from a contract manufacturer to a consumer brand, facing challenges in profitability due to rising raw material costs and increased marketing expenses [19]. - Vitasoy International reported a decline in revenue, particularly in the mainland market, as competition in the plant-based milk sector intensifies [20]. - Tian Shili's "medical-grade" sugar-free tea has achieved a high repurchase rate by targeting pre-diabetic consumers, showcasing the potential for functional beverages in the health market [21]. - The new brand "Bie Xiang Bao Bao" has gained traction in the sugar-free tea market, achieving significant sales growth through innovative product offerings [22].

海底捞作为中国餐饮龙头，年底估值约为 17 倍，具备安全边际，且股 息率接近 5%，使其成为具有投资吸引力的标的。 海底捞发展历程可分为三个阶段：扩张初期（经典牛油锅等产品），疫 情期间的深度调整期（"红石榴计划"），以及当前的新品牌探索期 （宴请烤肉等）。 火锅是中餐最大赛道，2024 年市场规模约 6,000 亿元，占中餐 14.5%。火锅行业标准化程度高、运营效率高、生命周期长，海底捞作 为龙头市占率约 6.9%。 海底捞的核心竞争壁垒在于服务管理能力和供应链优势，包括极致服务 （亲子空间、美甲等）、师徒制管理、神秘人巡店以及一体化供应链体 系。 海底捞主品牌门店企稳回升，翻台率逐步回升，同时积极探索加盟模式 和新品牌（如宴请烤肉、小火锅），未来发展潜力较大。 预计海底捞明后年归母净利润分别为 48 亿和 53 亿，目前 PE 约为 17 倍，加上 95%以上的分红，投资收益相对有保障。 Q&A 为什么选择在当前时点发布海底捞的深度报告？ 今年（2025 年）对于海底捞来说是经营上略有承压的一年，但在低基数下， 明年（2026 年）的成长和业绩压力会有所减弱。我们认为公司明年的业绩将 有所改善。此外，海 ...

导语 为了探索小火锅品类的发展潜力，红餐产业研究院发布了《小火锅品类发展报告2025》。 近年来，主打"一人一锅"模式的小火锅再次翻红，社交平台上小火锅的热度居高不下。在全国各地，小火锅门店不断涌现，就连海底捞、杨国福麻辣烫等 餐饮巨头也接连下场，做起了小火锅生意。 那么，小火锅为什么会再次成为当下的新风口？小火锅赛道有哪些发展动向？又有哪些发展趋势？为了探寻这些问题，红餐产业研究院推出了《小火锅品 类发展报告2025》。以下为报告的部分内容展示。 小火锅热度持续高涨，2025年市场规模将达到400亿元 近两年，小火锅的热度不断升温。在巨量算数平台上，"小火锅"关键词搜索指数从2024年初的不到50万提升至2025年11月的150万左右。 同时，在各个社交平台上，"小火锅"相关话题也获得了较高的热度。截至2025年11月，抖音平台上"小火锅"话题的视频播放量超24.7亿次；小红书平台"小 火锅"话题的浏览量累计超3.6亿次，快手平台"小火锅"话题的视频播放量超9.5亿次。 据红餐大数据，2025年火锅市场规模预计将达到6,500亿元，小火锅作为火锅品类中的重要细分领域，预计2025年市场规模将达到400亿元， ...

Core Insights - The 2025 China Entrepreneur Influence Entrepreneur Conference is held from December 5 to 7 in Beijing, focusing on the theme "Emergence·Infinity - Co-creating New Forms of Intelligent Business" [1][4] Company Insights - The founder and chairman of Xiaobai Xiaobai Group, He Guangqi, emphasizes that the core of a company's longevity is its product quality [3][6] - Xiaobai Xiaobai has been a recognized hot pot brand for over 30 years, with a strong commitment to product consistency [3][6] - To enhance food quality, Xiaobai Xiaobai has fully acquired a leading national slaughterhouse and operates a nearly 40,000 square meter seasoning factory to ensure product reliability [3][6]

Group 1 - The hot pot industry is experiencing significant growth, with the market size expected to reach 650 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 5.6% year-on-year increase in 2024 [5][12] - The emergence of "small hot pot" has gained popularity among young consumers due to its price advantage and casual dining experience, with 23,000 small hot pot outlets accounting for 5.5% of the total hot pot stores in China by July 2025 [8][9] - The trend towards "fresh" ingredients is reshaping consumer preferences, with brands like Haidilao focusing on fresh-cut offerings and transparency in food preparation [16] Group 2 - The hot pot market is characterized by diverse regional styles, with Sichuan and Chongqing hot pot maintaining a dominant position, while Guizhou sour soup hot pot has gained traction, showing a 118.14% increase in search interest on Douyin [13][16] - The competition is shifting from price wars to value creation, with brands emphasizing unique regional flavors and immersive dining experiences to attract consumers [22] - Innovative "hot pot+" concepts are emerging, enhancing the dining experience through thematic environments and collaborations with popular IPs, such as Haidilao's partnerships with various entertainment franchises [18][19]

Group 1 - The hot pot industry is experiencing significant growth, with the market size expected to reach 617.5 billion yuan in 2024, a 5.6% increase year-on-year, and projected to reach 650 billion yuan in 2025 [3][4] - The "small hot pot" segment is emerging as a strong player, appealing to younger consumers with its price advantage and casual dining experience, with 23,000 small hot pot outlets accounting for 5.5% of total hot pot stores by July 2025 [3][4] - The demand for fresh ingredients is driving competition, with brands like Haidilao focusing on fresh-cut offerings and transparency in food preparation to attract customers [6][9] Group 2 - Traditional hot pot styles, particularly Sichuan and Chongqing hot pots, remain dominant, holding a 31.3% market share, while regional flavors like Guizhou sour soup hot pot are gaining popularity, evidenced by a 118.14% increase in search interest on Douyin [6][9] - The industry is shifting from price competition to value competition, emphasizing unique regional flavors and immersive dining experiences to attract consumers [9] - Innovative dining experiences, such as themed collaborations and unique restaurant concepts, are becoming essential for brands to differentiate themselves in a saturated market [8][9]

Core Insights - The "i-person" label has evolved from representing introversion to embodying a lifestyle characterized by selective social engagement and prioritizing personal comfort and happiness [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The "one-person dining" market in China is projected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan by 2025, indicating a significant shift towards solo dining experiences [3] - The pet economy, particularly for cats, has surpassed 100 billion yuan, reflecting a growing trend of low-social-energy emotional connections among consumers [3] - The Chinese instant retail market is expected to reach 751.5 billion yuan by 2024 and surpass 1 trillion yuan by 2026, showcasing the demand for convenience and reduced social interaction [21][22] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly favoring low-pressure social interactions facilitated by online platforms, such as gaming companions and AI chatbots, which cater to the "i-person" preference for controlled social environments [5] - The rise of self-service retail and hotels aligns with the "i-person" desire for minimal interaction, with the self-service retail market projected to reach 128 billion yuan by 2024, growing at 40.2% year-on-year [12][15] - The surge in self-study rooms, with a 523.7% increase in registered businesses in 2023, highlights the demand for focused, undisturbed environments for learning [18][20] Group 3: Technological Integration - The global AR/VR market is expected to reach $39.7 billion by 2029, with China leading the growth at over 40%, indicating a strong preference for immersive, independent entertainment experiences among younger consumers [7][10] - AI applications, such as Saylo AI, are becoming essential tools for "i-persons," providing companionship and emotional support through interactive experiences [5][8] Group 4: Emotional and Psychological Aspects - The trend of collecting designer toys among younger generations serves as a form of emotional expression and connection, with the market expected to exceed 80 billion yuan by 2025 [10] - The "i-person" economy reflects a broader cultural shift towards valuing personal space, emotional well-being, and self-determination in consumer choices [23]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese hot pot market is undergoing an unprecedented shakeout, with significant price wars leading to a decline in average spending and a high number of store closures across various brands [5][6][8]. Market Overview - In 2024, the scale of the Chinese catering market is projected to reach 5.57 trillion yuan, with the hot pot segment accounting for 617.5 billion yuan, indicating that 10% of every 10 yuan spent on dining is for hot pot [8]. - The hot pot market has seen rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.6% last year and nearly 20% growth the year before [8]. - However, from November 2023 to November 2024, over 300,000 hot pot stores are expected to close, representing a significant turnover in a market that has maintained over 500,000 stores in recent years [8][9]. Consumer Behavior - Average spending on hot pot has decreased from over 86 yuan in 2022 to 77 yuan in 2024, affecting all segments of the market [8][9]. - The decline in demand for full-service dining experiences, particularly in the hot pot sector, is attributed to changing consumer preferences and increased competition from takeout options [10][11]. Company Performance - Haidilao reported a revenue of 20.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.7%, with net profit down 13.7% to 1.755 billion yuan [11][12]. - The average table turnover rate for Haidilao has dropped from 4.2 times to 3.8 times per day, reflecting decreased customer footfall [12]. - Other brands like Cuocuo and Xiaobai have also faced significant challenges, with Cuocuo closing 73 stores and Xiaobai 138 stores, leading to substantial stock price declines [6][19]. Competitive Landscape - The hot pot industry is experiencing intense competition, with brands like Haidilao and Banu engaging in price wars to attract customers [15][21]. - The small hot pot market is growing rapidly, with a growth rate of 28.9% in 2024, but the number of new entrants is at a historical low, indicating that existing players are simply shifting focus rather than new opportunities arising [15][16]. - Banu has positioned itself as a high-end alternative to Haidilao, focusing on product quality rather than service, but its financial performance does not significantly outperform its competitors [21][22]. Future Outlook - The ongoing price wars and market shakeout are expected to continue, with high-end brands also feeling the pressure as consumer preferences shift towards more affordable options [24]. - The hot pot industry, while currently facing challenges, may ultimately benefit consumers through lower prices and improved accessibility [26].