Group 1: Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the Brent 09 contract rising 1.37%. Kurdish oil production decreased by 140,000 - 150,000 barrels per day due to drone attacks, but the upward drive from strong reality factors has weakened, and there are still trade - war risks in July. Short - term prices are likely to remain in a volatile pattern [1] Precious Metals - US economic data showed resilience, suppressing gold prices, but gold remained resilient. Uncertainty before the US tariff policy deadline is high, and precious metals are mainly in a volatile state [2] Copper - Overnight copper prices fluctuated higher. Good US retail sales boosted risk - asset trading sentiment. After the price decline, LME copper traded between the MA60 and 40 - day moving averages. SMM social inventory decreased by 4,300 tons to 143,300 tons this week [3] Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly. Aluminum ingot and aluminum bar social inventories decreased. After breaking the upward trend line, it is in a volatile state waiting for consumption feedback [4] Alumina - Domestic alumina operating capacity has reached a historical high and is in an oversupply state. The inventory of SHFE warehouse receipts is still low. The upward trend of spot prices has eased, but it is still at a premium, and the downside space of futures is limited after continuous decline [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai quotation is stable at 19,500 yuan. Demand is weak, but scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the industry has negative profits but shows some resilience relative to aluminum prices [6] Zinc - In the consumption off - season, downstream willingness to buy at high prices is low. Due to the "anti - involution" policy, zinc price correction is difficult. The mid - term idea is to short on rallies, waiting for opportunities around 23,000 yuan [7] Lead - Middle - East tariff hikes on Chinese lead - acid batteries and inventory accumulation have pressured lead prices. Kazakhstan's export ban on unforged aluminum strengthens domestic cost support. Attention should be paid to whether Shanghai aluminum can stop falling around 16,800 yuan/ton [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded with active trading. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, with weak spot sales. Nickel - iron and stainless - steel inventories have increased. Technically, Shanghai nickel still has room to rebound, waiting for better short - selling opportunities [9] Tin - Overnight, LME tin recovered its decline, and Shanghai tin fluctuated. Attention should be paid to the low inventory in overseas markets and the resumption of supply of tin concentrates. Hold previous high - level short positions [10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded. There is strong selling pressure around 70,000 yuan. Total inventory is high, and traders buy at low prices. The futures price has strong hedging demand in the 67,000 - 70,000 yuan range, and abundant supply restricts the rebound space [11] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures strengthened significantly. The downstream price increase has begun to transmit costs. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and strong, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [12] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures continued to strengthen. Downstream polysilicon production is expected to increase in July, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and strong, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt changes [13] Iron and Steel - Night - session steel prices continued to rise. Rebar demand declined, and production decreased, with a slight inventory increase. Hot - rolled coil demand slightly recovered, production decreased, and inventory slightly declined. The market focus is on off - season demand and policy changes [14] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices continued to rebound. Supply has a short - term decline risk, and demand can maintain a relatively high level in the short term. It is expected to fluctuate with steel products [15] Coke - Coke prices rose during the day. The first round of price increases was fully implemented, with a smaller - than - expected increase. It follows steel prices and is less affected by the "anti - involution" policy [16] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose during the day. Environmental inspections in Wuhai affected coal transportation. The total inventory decreased, and it follows steel prices and is less affected by the "anti - involution" policy [17] Manganese Silicon - Prices fluctuated upward. Manganese ore inventory is low in the short term, and price support is increasing. It follows rebar prices but has limited upward momentum [18] Silicon Iron - Prices fluctuated upward. Iron - water production decreased slightly. Demand is fair, and it follows rebar prices but has limited upward momentum [19] Group 2: Shipping and Energy Container Freight Index (European Line) - Spot market prices may rise. Supply pressure will gradually appear in August, and the short - term market will enter a volatile stage [20] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The high - low sulfur spread is declining. FU cracking is expected to continue the downward trend, and LU follows crude oil [21] Asphalt - Social inventory slightly increased, and factory inventory decreased. Supply increase resilience needs to be observed, and low inventory supports prices [22] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Middle - East production pressure remains, and the domestic market is in a supply - demand double - weak situation. The summer off - season pattern remains, and the price is volatile and weak [22] Group 3: Chemicals Urea - Daily production decreased slightly, and supply is sufficient. The market is expected to be in a supply - demand - loose situation in the short term, and the price is likely to be volatile and strong within a range [23] Methanol - Import arrivals increased, and port inventory accumulated rapidly. Some enterprises may postpone maintenance. Demand is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to macro and downstream device changes [24] Pure Benzene - Night - session prices were weak. It is expected to be moderately boosted by the oil - price rebound. There is a supply pressure in the short term. Seasonal improvement is expected in the third - quarter later stage, and it is recommended to operate on the monthly spread [25] Styrene - The crude - oil market has a multi - empty game, and the short - term trend may be wide - range volatile. Supply is sufficient, and spot sales are weak [26] Polypropylene and Plastic - Polyolefin futures were volatile and weak. Polyethylene supply will increase, and demand support is limited. Polypropylene has bottom support, but demand is weak [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC prices were narrowly volatile. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Caustic - soda supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be under pressure at high levels [28] PX and PTA - PX and PTA prices rebounded. PX demand is weakening, and PTA has a drive to repair the processing spread [29] Ethylene Glycol - Domestic production decreased, and arrivals were low. The price is volatile and strong. Supply contraction is beneficial to market improvement in the short term [30] Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Short - fiber prices rebounded with raw materials. Short - fiber production increased, and inventory decreased slightly. Bottle - chip enterprises cut production, and inventory increased slightly [31] Group 4: Building Materials Glass - Glass prices were strong during the day. Inventory decreased this week, and the price is expected to follow the macro - sentiment in the short term. In the long term, supply contraction is needed for a significant price increase [32] 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - International oil prices rose, and the Thai raw - material market was stable with a slight increase. Rubber supply is increasing, demand is improving, and the strategy is to go long on rebounds [33] Soda Ash - Soda - ash prices were strong during the day. The spot market is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to follow costs and the macro - situation in the short term, and there is limited upward space in the long term [34] Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - US soybean good - quality rate increased. Domestic soybean - meal prices rose, and inventory increased. Attention should be paid to the US soybean - growing area weather and the August 1 tariff node [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Palm - oil prices strengthened. Indonesia's palm - oil export competitiveness increased, and there is a bio - diesel demand expectation. Long - term, a long - on - dips strategy is recommended for vegetable oils [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market is affected by economic and trade expectations. Supply may be uncertain, and the price is expected to rise in the short term [37] Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybean prices continued to rebound. Attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance [38] Corn - China Grain Reserves Corporation's auctions affected market expectations. US corn is growing well, and Dalian corn futures are expected to continue bottom - range fluctuations [39] Live Pigs - Live - pig futures prices rose slightly. Spot prices continued to fall, and supply is increasing. There is a downward pressure on prices in the medium term [40] Eggs - Egg futures prices fell, with the off - season contracts under pressure. Spot prices rose, and attention should be paid to the rebound strength [41] Cotton - US cotton prices fluctuated higher, and domestic demand is average. Cotton inventory is expected to be tight, supporting price increases. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [42] Sugar - US sugar prices were volatile. Brazilian production expectations are negative, and domestic sugar inventory pressure is light. The price is expected to be volatile [43] Apples - Futures prices were volatile. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and prices have increased. The market focus is on the new - season yield estimate, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [44] Wood - Futures prices rebounded significantly. Spot prices are stable, and there is an expectation of price increase due to low inventory. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the upward momentum is insufficient. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [45] Pulp - Futures prices rose slightly. Spot prices were stable. Port inventory decreased slightly, but supply is still relatively loose. Demand is in the off - season, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or do short - term operations [46] Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - A - share prices fluctuated higher, and overseas stock markets also rose. In the short term, the domestic risk - preference pattern is volatile and strong, and continue to pay attention to policy signals. Increase the allocation of technology - growth stocks on the basis of dividend - asset allocation [47] Treasury Bonds - Treasury - bond futures prices were in a volatile consolidation state. The central bank increased net investment, and the bond market may have increased fluctuations in the short term [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PP industry is "oscillating downward", and the strategy is to "short on rallies" [1] Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to experience low - level oscillations. The downstream开工率 is low, the upstream has supply constraints, and factors such as global trade and raw material prices also affect the market [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The downstream开工率 of PP decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 48.64%, with the plastic weaving开工率 down 0.2 percentage points to 42.0%. US tariff hikes and propane import restrictions impact the market. On July 11, some overhauled devices restarted, and the PP企业开工率 rose to about 83.5%. The proportion of standard product drawing production dropped to about 24.5%. OPEC+ is discussing a suspension of further production increases from October, and OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast. New production capacity was put into operation in June, and recent device overhauls have alleviated some pressure. With the arrival of the rainy and hot season in the South, downstream recovery is slow, and inventory pressure is still high [1] Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The PP2509 contract decreased in an oscillating manner, with a low of 7053 yuan/ton, a high of 7105 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 7069 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The position decreased by 2015 lots to 394188 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most PP spot prices in various regions were stable, with drawing quoted at 6950 - 7270 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On July 11, some overhauled devices restarted, and the PP企业开工率 rose to about 83.5%, at a moderately low level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of July 11, the PP downstream开工率 decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 48.64%, at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. The plastic weaving开工率 decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 42.0%, and plastic weaving orders slightly decreased [4] - **Inventory**: On Friday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 2.5 tons to 72.5 tons, 4.5 tons lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory is at a moderate level compared to recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 09 contract dropped to 69 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by 5 US dollars/ton to 775 US dollars/ton [4]

Core Viewpoint - The polypropylene (PP) market is experiencing a decline in downstream operating rates, leading to supply pressure and potential price fluctuations at low levels [1] Group 1: Downstream Operations - The PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.27 percentage points to 48.78%, which is lower than the historical average for this time of year [1] - The operating rate for plastic weaving fell by 1.0 percentage points to 42.2%, with a slight reduction in orders, although it remains higher than the same period in the previous two years [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent increase in tariffs by the U.S. has impacted PP downstream product exports, while propane imports for polypropylene production are restricted [1] - New maintenance at Yulong Petrochemical's third line has caused the PP enterprise operating rate to drop to around 82%, indicating a neutral to low level [1] - The production ratio for standard filament has decreased to approximately 28.5%, with inventory levels remaining neutral compared to previous years [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - Following OPEC+'s agreement to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, oil prices have seen a rebound after a decline [1] - The southern region is entering a rainy and hot season, leading to slow recovery in downstream operations, reduced plastic weaving activity, and limited new orders [1] - The market is expected to see low-level fluctuations in PP prices, with a need to monitor global trade war developments [1] Group 4: Futures and Spot Market - The PP2509 futures contract experienced a reduction in positions, with a minimum price of 7040 yuan/ton and a maximum of 7080 yuan/ton, closing at 7078 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.34% increase [1] - Spot prices for PP in various regions have mostly declined, with filament prices reported between 6950 and 7250 yuan/ton [1] Group 5: Raw Material Prices - As of July 4, the weekly inventory of PP in petrochemical companies decreased by 15,000 tons to 765,000 tons, which is lower than the same period last year [1] - The Brent crude oil September contract rose to $70 per barrel, while the CFR propylene price in China fell by $10 per ton to $785 per ton [1]