【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年1月9日 【行情分析】 截至1月9日当周，元旦节后，PP下游开工率环比下降0.10个百分点至52.6%，处于历年同期偏低 水平。其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下跌0.22个百分点至42.92%，塑编订单环比继续小幅下降， 略低于去年同期。1月9日，东华能源（宁波）一期等检修装置重启开车，PP企业开工率上涨至79%左 右，处于偏低水平，标品拉丝生产比例上涨至25.5%左右。今年元旦累库幅度不大，目前石化库存处 于近年同期中性水平。成本端，原油供应过剩之下，美军突袭委内瑞拉军事行动引发地缘政治担忧， 但目前该国关键石油设施未受损，且其产量仅占全球供应不足1%，特朗普称委内瑞拉将向美国移交 3000万至5000万桶石油，原油价格依然疲软。供应上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10月中 旬投产，近期检修装置有所增加。下游进入旺季尾声，塑编等订单继续下降，BOPP膜价格再次下跌， 市场缺乏大规模集中采购，对行情提振有限，贸易商偏观望。12月中国制造业PMI、非制造业商务活 动指数和综合PMI产出指数均升至扩张区间，财政部提前下达2026年以旧换新及"两 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The PP market shows a trend of oscillating upward, but the improvement in the supply - demand pattern is limited, and the upward space is expected to be limited. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to new capacity in the plastics industry and the end of the agricultural film peak season [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week ending January 2, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.48 percentage points month - on - month to 52.76%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.60 percentage points month - on - month to 43.14%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On January 6, with the addition of new maintenance units such as Lihezhixin, the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 79%, at a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring PP dropped to around 22% [1][4] - The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, due to the oversupply of crude oil, the US military's raid on Venezuela has caused geopolitical concerns, but the key oil facilities in the country are intact, and its output accounts for less than 1% of the global supply, so the crude oil price remains weak [1] - In terms of supply, the new 400,000 - ton/year capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance units has increased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which has limited support for the market [1] - In December, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rose to the expansion range, boosting market sentiment, but the improvement in the PP supply - demand pattern is limited, and the downstream order cycle is shortened [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2605 contract increased in positions and oscillated upward, with a minimum price of 6,345 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,439 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,423 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.09%. The open interest increased by 13,147 lots to 521,569 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in different regions showed mixed trends. The drawstring PP was quoted at 6,000 - 6,430 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking Supply - On January 6, with the addition of new maintenance units such as Lihezhixin, the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 79%, at a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring PP dropped to around 22% [4] Demand - As of the week ending January 2, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.48 percentage points month - on - month to 52.76%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.60 percentage points month - on - month to 43.14%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] Inventory - On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 10,000 tons month - on - month to 660,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $62 per barrel, and the CIF China price of propylene remained flat month - on - month at $740 per ton [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - PP is expected to operate in a volatile manner, with limited upside potential due to an overall unchanged supply - demand pattern, a decrease in downstream orders, and high inventory levels. The L - PP spread is expected to decline as new plastic production capacity comes online and the peak season for agricultural films ends [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 26, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of PP raffia, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week - on - week, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1]. - On December 31, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard raffia remained at around 27.5%. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years, with significant pressure [1][4]. - On the cost side, due to oversupply in the crude oil market and geopolitical tensions, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. New production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and there have been few changes in maintenance devices recently [1]. - The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving and other products continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has fallen again, and the lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market has limited the boost to the market [1]. - China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index in December all rose to the expansion range, which boosted market sentiment, but the overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract decreased in positions and operated in a volatile manner, with a minimum price of 6326 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6375 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6348 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.67%. The open interest decreased by 33,492 lots to 507,887 lots [2]. - Spot: PP spot prices in various regions partially increased, with raffia priced at 5920 - 6330 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 31, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard raffia remained at around 27.5% [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 26, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of PP raffia, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week - on - week, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4]. - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical morning inventory increased by 30,000 tons week - on - week to 630,000 tons, 110,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 03 contract fell below $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $740 per ton [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PP market is expected to move in a volatile manner, with limited upside potential in the near term due to an unchanged supply - demand pattern. The L - PP spread is expected to decline as there may be new PP capacity coming on - stream this year and the peak season for agricultural films is gradually ending [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 12, the downstream PP operating rate rose 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring, dropped 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 18, new maintenance units such as Yulong Petrochemical's fifth line were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to fall to around 83%, a relatively low - to - neutral level, while the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to around 28% [1][4] - Recently, the de - stocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, some previously malfunctioning oil fields in Iraq have resumed production. The US is still actively promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and Ukraine has made certain compromises on security guarantees. The crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the US has been continuously falling, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1] - In terms of supply, Sinopec Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year was put into operation in mid - October. Recently, the number of maintenance units has increased slightly. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has stabilized after a drop, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited impact on boosting the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The PP2605 contract increased its positions and moved in a volatile manner, with a minimum price of 6,263 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,312 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,279 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.45%. The open interest increased by 4,001 lots to 523,495 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions remained stable. The drawstring was quoted at 5,980 - 6,280 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on December 18, new maintenance units such as Yulong Petrochemical's fifth line were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to fall to around 83%, a relatively low - to - neutral level, while the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to around 28% [4] - On the demand side, as of the week ending December 12, the downstream PP operating rate rose 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring, dropped 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 670,000 tons week - on - week, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the de - stocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $60 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $745 per ton week - on - week [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, there is no further macro - level positive news, the spot trading atmosphere is light, and it is expected that the upward space of PP will be limited in the near future. Due to the possibility of new PP production capacity coming on - stream this year and the gradual exit of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP price spread is expected to narrow [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, which is at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. However, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 16, there were few changes in maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a neutral level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring PP dropped to around 24% [1] - Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of recent years. On the cost side, some previously faulty oil fields in Iraq have resumed production. The United States is still actively promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and Ukraine has made certain compromises on security guarantees. The crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the United States has continued to decline, and crude oil prices have fallen [1] - In terms of supply, the 400,000 - ton/year new production capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract fluctuated with increasing positions, with a minimum price of 6,230 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,278 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,256 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.13%. The open interest increased by 11,398 lots to 497,942 lots [2] - Spot: The spot prices of PP in most regions have declined. The drawstring PP is quoted at 5,980 - 6,330 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On December 16, new maintenance devices such as the second - phase HDPE of Sinopec - SK Wuhan Petrochemical were added, and the operating rate of plastics dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [4] - Demand side: As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, which is at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. However, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - On Tuesday, the early - morning inventory of petrochemicals decreased by 30,000 tons to 720,000 tons week - on - week, 65,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 02 dropped to $60/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $745/ton week - on - week [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - As of the week ending December 5, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.10 percentage points to 53.93% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, remained flat week - on - week at 44.1%, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On December 11, the number of maintenance devices remained largely unchanged, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a moderately low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring materials dropping to around 25.5%. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. On the cost side, some previously malfunctioning oil fields in Iraq have resumed production, and the crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the United States has continued to decline, leading to a drop in crude oil prices. In terms of supply, the new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased recently. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving and other products are starting to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments and industry associations, held a meeting to study and formulate standards for identifying costs of disorderly price competition, which provided some support for bulk commodities, but the overall supply - demand pattern of PP remained unchanged, and there was no further macro - level positive news. The spot trading atmosphere was light, and it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly in the near future. Due to the possibility of new production capacity of plastics being put into operation this year and the gradual exit of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP price spread is expected to narrow [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 5, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.10 percentage points to 53.93% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, remained flat week - on - week at 44.1%, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On December 11, the number of maintenance devices remained largely unchanged, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a moderately low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring materials dropping to around 25.5%. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has dropped. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the number of maintenance devices has decreased. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, and orders are decreasing. The market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, and traders offer discounts to stimulate transactions. Although relevant meetings have provided some support for bulk commodities, the overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, and the macro - level has no further positive news. The spot trading atmosphere is light, and it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly in the near future. Due to the possibility of new plastic production capacity being put into operation this year and the gradual exit of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP price spread is expected to narrow [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions, with a minimum price of 6,167 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,232 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,177 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.26%. The position volume decreased by 28,910 lots to 351,293 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined. The drawstring was quoted at 6,010 - 6,380 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 11, the number of maintenance devices remained largely unchanged, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a moderately low level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending December 5, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.10 percentage points to 53.93% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, remained flat week - on - week at 44.1%, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: The early - morning petrochemical inventory on Thursday remained flat week - on - week at 690,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - Crude oil: The Brent crude oil 02 contract dropped below $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $745 per ton [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - PP downstream demand is in the late peak season, with limited follow - up of orders. The supply has new capacity put into operation and an increase in maintenance devices. The cost side has low - level fluctuations in oil prices. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the short - term upward space of PP is limited [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream start - up rate rose 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. The start - up rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawing materials, decreased 0.14 percentage points to 44.1%, and orders were flat week - on - week, slightly lower than last year [1][4] - On December 2, new maintenance devices were added, and the start - up rate of PP enterprises dropped to about 81%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard drawing materials rose to about 28.5% [1][4] - At the beginning of the month, petrochemical inventory accumulated significantly and is now at a high level in the same period in recent years. The cost side has low - level fluctuations in oil prices, and the new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of Guangxi Petrochemical of CNPC was put into operation in mid - October [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission's meeting on price competition gave some boost to bulk commodities, but the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remained unchanged, and the short - term upward space of PP was limited [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The PP2601 contract decreased positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6391 yuan/ton, the highest was 6426 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6410 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.08%. The position decreased by 19,931 lots to 469,013 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The spot prices of PP in various regions showed mixed trends. The drawing materials were reported at 6150 - 6480 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 2, new maintenance devices were added, and the start - up rate of PP enterprises dropped to about 81%, at a moderately low level [1][4] - Demand: As of the week of November 28, the downstream start - up rate of PP rose 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. The start - up rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawing materials, decreased 0.14 percentage points to 44.1%, and orders were flat week - on - week, slightly lower than last year [1][4] - Inventory: On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 35,000 tons to 735,000 tons week - on - week, 75,000 tons higher than the same period last year, at a high level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: Brent crude oil contract 02 fluctuated around $63/barrel, and China CFR propylene price rose by $15/ton week - on - week to $750/ton [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to supply surplus and weakened cost support, PP is expected to experience a weak and volatile trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders week - on - week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On November 26, the restart of overhauled units such as a single line of Dagang Petrochemical drove the PP enterprise operating rate up to around 83%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard drawstring remained at around 31% [1][4] - In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that the latest sanctions imposed by the US and the West did not affect Russia's oil production. Trump's administration is actively promoting a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky is open to peace talks, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1] - In terms of supply, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of overhauled units has decreased recently. As the downstream enters the end of the peak season, the follow - up of orders for plastic weaving is limited, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6,258 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,332 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,265 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.42%. The open interest decreased by 19,187 lots to 586,572 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in various regions partially declined. The drawstring was quoted at 6,150 - 6,480 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On November 26, the restart of overhauled units such as a single line of Dagang Petrochemical drove the PP enterprise operating rate up to around 83%, at a moderately low level [4] - Demand side: As of the week of November 21, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders week - on - week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Petrochemical early inventory on Wednesday decreased by 30,000 tons to 655,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons higher than the same period last year. In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw material end - crude oil: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fell below $63 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $735 per ton week - on - week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The recent cost increase has pushed the price of PP to rebound, but PP lacks the internal momentum to drive significant price hikes. It is expected that PP will experience a weak and volatile trend [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat at 44.26% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to slightly decrease, being slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On October 23, new maintenance devices such as the first and second lines of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase I were added. The operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to around 80%, a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn dropped to around 25% [1][4] - The inventory accumulation of petrochemicals during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - In terms of cost, due to the upcoming new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States and the US sanctions on important Russian oil companies, the crude oil price has rebounded significantly from its low level [1] - In terms of supply, new production capacities have been put into operation, and recently, the number of maintenance devices has increased [1] - Although the weather has improved and the downstream is gradually entering the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the peak - season demand is currently lower than expected, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market. After the National Day, the stocking demand has weakened periodically, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] - China and the United States are charging special port fees on each other's ships, increasing concerns about economic growth. There are no actual policies for anti - involution in the PP industry yet, but anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of over - capacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated upwards. The lowest price was 6616 yuan/ton, the highest was 6710 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6691 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.27%. The position volume decreased by 14,771 lots to 618,484 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions increased. The price of drawn yarn was reported at 6390 - 6630 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 23, new maintenance devices such as the first and second lines of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase I were added, and the operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to around 80%, a moderately low level [4] - Demand: As of the week of October 17, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat at 44.26% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to slightly decrease, being slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: During the National Day holiday, the early petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons. On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 760,000 tons, which was 10,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation of petrochemicals during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by $15/ton to $760/ton week - on - week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PP industry is "oscillating downward", and the strategy is to "short on rallies" [1] Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to experience low - level oscillations. The downstream开工率 is low, the upstream has supply constraints, and factors such as global trade and raw material prices also affect the market [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The downstream开工率 of PP decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 48.64%, with the plastic weaving开工率 down 0.2 percentage points to 42.0%. US tariff hikes and propane import restrictions impact the market. On July 11, some overhauled devices restarted, and the PP企业开工率 rose to about 83.5%. The proportion of standard product drawing production dropped to about 24.5%. OPEC+ is discussing a suspension of further production increases from October, and OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast. New production capacity was put into operation in June, and recent device overhauls have alleviated some pressure. With the arrival of the rainy and hot season in the South, downstream recovery is slow, and inventory pressure is still high [1] Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The PP2509 contract decreased in an oscillating manner, with a low of 7053 yuan/ton, a high of 7105 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 7069 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The position decreased by 2015 lots to 394188 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most PP spot prices in various regions were stable, with drawing quoted at 6950 - 7270 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On July 11, some overhauled devices restarted, and the PP企业开工率 rose to about 83.5%, at a moderately low level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of July 11, the PP downstream开工率 decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 48.64%, at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. The plastic weaving开工率 decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 42.0%, and plastic weaving orders slightly decreased [4] - **Inventory**: On Friday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 2.5 tons to 72.5 tons, 4.5 tons lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory is at a moderate level compared to recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 09 contract dropped to 69 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by 5 US dollars/ton to 775 US dollars/ton [4]