Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The recent cost increase has pushed the price of PP to rebound, but PP lacks the internal momentum to drive significant price hikes. It is expected that PP will experience a weak and volatile trend [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat at 44.26% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to slightly decrease, being slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On October 23, new maintenance devices such as the first and second lines of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase I were added. The operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to around 80%, a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn dropped to around 25% [1][4] - The inventory accumulation of petrochemicals during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - In terms of cost, due to the upcoming new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States and the US sanctions on important Russian oil companies, the crude oil price has rebounded significantly from its low level [1] - In terms of supply, new production capacities have been put into operation, and recently, the number of maintenance devices has increased [1] - Although the weather has improved and the downstream is gradually entering the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the peak - season demand is currently lower than expected, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market. After the National Day, the stocking demand has weakened periodically, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] - China and the United States are charging special port fees on each other's ships, increasing concerns about economic growth. There are no actual policies for anti - involution in the PP industry yet, but anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of over - capacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated upwards. The lowest price was 6616 yuan/ton, the highest was 6710 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6691 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.27%. The position volume decreased by 14,771 lots to 618,484 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions increased. The price of drawn yarn was reported at 6390 - 6630 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 23, new maintenance devices such as the first and second lines of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase I were added, and the operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to around 80%, a moderately low level [4] - Demand: As of the week of October 17, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat at 44.26% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to slightly decrease, being slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: During the National Day holiday, the early petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons. On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 760,000 tons, which was 10,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation of petrochemicals during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by $15/ton to $760/ton week - on - week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PP industry is "oscillating downward", and the strategy is to "short on rallies" [1] Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to experience low - level oscillations. The downstream开工率 is low, the upstream has supply constraints, and factors such as global trade and raw material prices also affect the market [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The downstream开工率 of PP decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 48.64%, with the plastic weaving开工率 down 0.2 percentage points to 42.0%. US tariff hikes and propane import restrictions impact the market. On July 11, some overhauled devices restarted, and the PP企业开工率 rose to about 83.5%. The proportion of standard product drawing production dropped to about 24.5%. OPEC+ is discussing a suspension of further production increases from October, and OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast. New production capacity was put into operation in June, and recent device overhauls have alleviated some pressure. With the arrival of the rainy and hot season in the South, downstream recovery is slow, and inventory pressure is still high [1] Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The PP2509 contract decreased in an oscillating manner, with a low of 7053 yuan/ton, a high of 7105 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 7069 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The position decreased by 2015 lots to 394188 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most PP spot prices in various regions were stable, with drawing quoted at 6950 - 7270 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On July 11, some overhauled devices restarted, and the PP企业开工率 rose to about 83.5%, at a moderately low level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of July 11, the PP downstream开工率 decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 48.64%, at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. The plastic weaving开工率 decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 42.0%, and plastic weaving orders slightly decreased [4] - **Inventory**: On Friday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 2.5 tons to 72.5 tons, 4.5 tons lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory is at a moderate level compared to recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 09 contract dropped to 69 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by 5 US dollars/ton to 775 US dollars/ton [4]