近期债市情绪低落，在股市偏强震荡和资金偏紧的情况下，债市继续下跌，目前30Y国债已上行至2.1%以上，10Y国债已上行 至1.8%以上，均为年内收益率阶段性高点，配置价值已现。 信用债ETF日度跟踪显示总规模4649亿元，单日上升22.3亿元，其中基准做市ETF下降1.0亿元、科创债ETF上升39.8亿元；加权 久期中位数3.5年。流动性：整体成交金额1238亿元，平均单笔成交额295万元（基准做市74万元、科创债338万元）；换手率中 位数23.0%。估值情况：收益率中位数1.99%，贴水率中位数-16.1BP（基准做市-55.0BP、科创债-12.2BP）。 （数据来源：WIND资讯，平安基金整理，截至20250919） 平安公司债ETF（511030）产品定位短融ETF+，近一周净值回撤可控（仅10bp），周均贴水小（仅4bp），规模稳定，且是少 数几家采用中债估值的债券ETF之一，优势相对突出。本周继续关注本轮债市调整以来平安公司债ETF（511030）回撤控制排 名第一，净值相对稳健且回撤可控，可参考下表（本轮债市调整自2025年8月10日起算）： | 代码 | 同樣 | 粉肉骨称 | 托管人 | ...

来源：智通财经 （数据来源： DM终端，截至20250912） （数据来源：WIND资讯，平安基金整理，截至20250912） 本周债市自周初连续三日大跌，10Y国债升破1.83%，30Y国债步入2.11%上方，债市悲观预期不断强化，至周五央行重启 国债买卖预期升温后才有所修复。具体而言，周一盘初中长端现券收益率快速上行2BP定价周五基金新规的利空情绪；周 二债市再度迎来大跌，长债收益率续创新高；周三债市连跌三日，现券突破重要关口后继续上行；周四债市整体止跌，情 绪迎来修复；周五债市情绪进一步好转，长债收益率普遍下行。全周走势复盘如下图所示。 本周继续关注本轮债市调整以来平安公司债ETF（511030）回撤控制排名第一，净值相对稳健且回撤可控，可参考下表 （本轮债市调整自2025年8月10日起算）： ...

Group 1 - The article suggests that the bond market in September may outperform the stock market, with seasonal patterns not being directly applicable [1] - Recent adjustments in the bond market have been observed, but the performance in June was strong, indicating a potential similar trend in September [1] - With the decline in banks' funding costs, government bonds are becoming increasingly attractive for banks' proprietary trading [1] Group 2 - The current yield spread between bonds and funding costs is expected to widen as costs decrease further [1] - The stock market is experiencing significant volatility, with concerns that a bull market may not be desirable [1] - The article highlights that small and medium-sized stocks are generally overvalued with low growth potential, indicating a bubble [1] Group 3 - The recent redemption of fixed income products has had a temporary impact on the bond market [1] - The bond market is returning to a pricing model based on fundamentals and liquidity [1] - The company bond ETF (511030) has shown the least discount in trading over the past week, with a net inflow of 0.52 billion [2]

Group 1 - The bond market is expected to continue its upward trend due to stable wealth management products, with a net value break rate of only 2% as of the end of August, which is at a multi-year low [1] - The stock market's strong stabilization may soon come to an end, leading to challenges for convertible bonds, with an estimated 200 billion yuan in primary bond funds held by wealth management [1] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to range between 1.6% and 1.8% in the second half of the year, with potential for rapid movement towards 1.6% if the stock market experiences significant adjustments [1] Group 2 - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has shown the best performance in controlling drawdowns during the recent bond market adjustment, with the least trading discount and a net inflow of 0.52 million yuan in the past week [2] - The average annualized yield of fixed-income wealth management products exceeded 2% in August, indicating a favorable environment for bond investments [1] - The bond market has experienced adjustments in June and September, but the market outlook for September appears positive following the adjustments in August [1]

Core Insights - The most challenging period for the bond market may have passed, as indicated by significant trading volume in the A-share market, reaching 2.81 trillion, marking the third-highest daily trading volume in history [1] - The impact of the stock market on the bond market's capital is limited, with an estimated 2 trillion flowing into the stock market this bull run, which is unlikely to have a decisive effect on the bond market [1] - Redemption pressures exist, but the likelihood of negative feedback is low due to increased liquidity in bank wealth management products, which have a higher proportion of liquid assets [1] Market Analysis - The recent surge in A-share trading volume suggests a potential slowdown in subsequent price increases, with a possibility of a short-term correction [1] - Historical comparisons show that the current adjustment in the bond market is less severe than previous adjustments in 2024 and early 2025 [1] - The performance of various bond ETFs indicates that the Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has the best control over drawdown, providing stability for investors during this challenging period [1] ETF Performance Summary - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has a scale of 22.353 billion, with a recent weekly average discount of -0.06% and a year-to-date return of 0.84% [1] - Other notable ETFs include the Hai Fu Tong Shanghai City Investment Bond ETF (511220) with a scale of 24.511 billion and a year-to-date return of 1.05%, and the Southern Shanghai Benchmark Market Company Bond ETF (511070) with a scale of 21.127 billion and a year-to-date return of 0.63% [1] - The overall performance of these ETFs reflects varying levels of risk and return, with the Ping An ETF showing the most resilience during the current market adjustment [1]

Public Funds - The current market is transitioning from liquidity-driven to fundamental verification, with technology growth (AI, robotics) and consumer recovery as core themes, adjusting holdings dynamically based on policy catalysts and earnings realization [1] - Maintaining a bull market mindset while being cautious of short-term technical pullback risks, optimizing risk-reward ratios through diversified allocation and disciplined operations [1] Private Funds - Excluding the real estate market, high-frequency economic data in the U.S. shows robust performance, indicating that the U.S. economy remains in a healthy wage-employment-inflation cycle, with reduced likelihood of a significant cooling in the labor market [2] - The diffusion of AI applications is gradually reflecting in labor productivity improvements, leading to the belief that the U.S. will not enter a recession [2] Overseas LO - At the Jackson Hole meeting, Powell expressed concerns about the labor market, laying the groundwork for a potential interest rate cut in September, which would create a favorable environment for cyclical stocks [3] - Cyclical stocks have recovered recent losses, and computing hardware remains strong, with new growth points emerging as products are updated [3] - Currently, consumer sectors are viewed as less attractive in the existing environment [3] Hedge Funds - The market is flourishing with discussions around interest rate cuts and anti-involution, highlighting increasing disparities between large and small market capitalizations and between economic fundamentals and valuations [4] - Investors are looking for signs of fundamental recovery, particularly improvements in core indicators like PPI and CPI, hoping for China to emerge from deflation [4] - The recent bond market adjustment has seen Ping An's corporate bond ETF (511030) maintain the best performance in terms of controlled drawdown, with minimal market discount and stable net value [4]

Market Overview - On August 25, the equity market experienced a significant surge in trading volume, reaching the highest level since October 9, 2024, indicating heightened market sentiment and increased speculative demand [1] - Despite the strong performance in the equity market, the bond market exhibited an independent trend, with yields on government bonds across various maturities declining [1] Bond Market Performance - The recent bond market adjustment began on August 8, 2025, with the Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) showing the best performance in terms of controlling drawdown, having the least market discount in the past week and maintaining a relatively stable net value [1] - The table provided lists various bond ETFs, detailing their scale, recent performance, and metrics such as pledge rates and drawdown statistics, highlighting the performance of different funds during the bond market adjustment [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The current market sentiment is weak, suggesting that investors should maintain a slightly lower duration. If interest rates adjust to high levels, there may be short-term trading opportunities using 30-year government bonds [1]. Investment Strategy - In a steep yield curve environment, a bullet strategy is recommended; however, due to its limited flexibility and potential need for position reduction, a bullet strategy may not outperform a barbell strategy in dynamic investing [1]. - Investors are advised to adopt a barbell structure, focusing on 1-year certificates of deposit and short-term credit with lower ratings, alongside long-end high-yield active bonds and 6-7 year secondary capital bonds [1]. Market Performance - Since the recent bond market adjustment starting from August 8, 2025, the Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has ranked first in terms of drawdown control, with the least market discount in the past week, indicating a relatively stable net value and manageable drawdown [1]. - A detailed table of various ETFs is provided, showing metrics such as scale, recent average discount, recent drawdown, and maximum drawdown, highlighting the performance of different bond ETFs [1].

Core Insights - The new mechanism for PPP projects and industrial gradient transfer may activate local economies [1] - The State Council has forwarded the latest guidance on "PPP stock projects," allowing the use of "general bonds and special bonds" for expenditures on these projects, which is a significant benefit for the main lending banks involved [1] - Long-term, the bank loans for PPP projects may achieve full repayment, significantly improving local government debt situations and enhancing the operational efficiency of local banks [1] - A series of "China's industrial transfer development docking activities" and the active introduction and support of eastern enterprises by various provinces and cities are facilitating the gradual transfer of certain industries from eastern regions to central and western regions [1] - This regional industrial collaboration and benefit-sharing mechanism is a major national strategy that may assist local governments in upgrading industries, increasing tax revenues, and continuously reducing debt ratios [1] Bond Market Insights - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has the best performance in controlling drawdown during the recent bond market adjustment, with the least market discount in the past week and a relatively stable net value [1] - The bond market adjustment began on August 8, 2025, and the table provided shows various ETFs with their respective performance metrics [1] - The data indicates that the average discount and year-to-date performance of several ETFs, including their pledge rates and drawdown metrics, are presented, highlighting the stability of the Ping An Company Bond ETF compared to others [1]

Group 1 - The current yield curve analysis indicates that there is little difference across various maturities of government bonds, with 2-3Y and 7Y bonds being relatively expensive [1] - The 10-year government bond (250215) has a current spread of -1 basis point compared to the 10-year national development bond (250210), with the former's outstanding amount reaching 335 billion yuan and continuing to be issued, suggesting it may become a main trading bond soon [1] - The 30-year government bond market is experiencing slower exchange progress due to the new bond's tax implications, but the preference for main bonds is expected to remain strong as the market adjusts [2] Group 2 - In the 3-5 year segment, specific bonds such as 240020, 250003, 240203, and 240208 are recommended for attention, while the 5Y national development bond is noted for its volatility [2] - The recent performance of the Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has shown strong control over drawdowns, ranking first in terms of stability during the recent bond market adjustments [2]