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国能日新年报点评 —— 25Q1开始加速,乐观看待未来成长
Orient Securities· 2025-05-19 03:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 52.92 CNY based on a 42x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][4][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to accelerate growth starting from Q1 2025, with a projected revenue of 550 million CNY for 2024, representing a 20.5% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of 93.59 million CNY, growing by 11.1% [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue increase of 40.1% to 145 million CNY, with a net profit of 16.61 million CNY, up 34.6% [1]. - The growth in revenue is driven by the distributed power station business and effective cost control measures [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 456 million CNY in 2023 to 1.376 billion CNY by 2027, with respective year-over-year growth rates of 26.9%, 20.5%, 38.0%, 48.4%, and 22.2% [3][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 84 million CNY in 2023 to 305 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 25.6%, 11.1%, 61.5%, 57.7%, and 27.9% [3][12]. - The gross margin is forecasted to decline slightly from 67.6% in 2023 to 57.7% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to improve from 18.5% to 22.2% over the same period [3][12]. Business Segment Performance - In 2024, the company anticipates revenue from various business segments, including 310 million CNY from power prediction products (+15.6%), 124 million CNY from grid control systems (+28.1%), and 52.49 million CNY from new energy management systems (+17.8%) [8]. - The Q1 2025 revenue growth is significantly influenced by the rapid increase in income from distributed photovoltaic power station power prediction products [8]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from favorable policies and the growing demand for distributed photovoltaic power station services, which will likely enhance its customer base and business growth in 2025 and 2026 [8].
国能日新(301162):25Q1开始加速,乐观看待未来成长
Orient Securities· 2025-05-19 01:27
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 52.92 CNY based on a 42x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][4][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to accelerate growth starting from Q1 2025, with a projected revenue of 550 million CNY for 2024, representing a 20.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 93.59 million CNY, up 11.1% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a significant revenue growth of 40.1% to 145 million CNY, with a net profit increase of 34.6% to 16.61 million CNY [1]. - The growth in distributed power station-related businesses and effective cost control have led to an upward revision of revenue growth expectations [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 456 million CNY in 2023 to 1.376 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.2% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 84 million CNY in 2023 to 305 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 27.9% [3]. - The gross margin is forecasted to decline slightly from 67.6% in 2023 to 57.7% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to improve from 18.5% to 22.2% over the same period [3]. Business Segment Performance - In 2024, the revenue from various business segments is expected to grow, with power prediction products reaching 310 million CNY (+15.6%), grid-connected control systems at 124 million CNY (+28.1%), and other products showing significant growth [8]. - The first quarter of 2025 indicates a notable acceleration in revenue, primarily driven by the rapid growth of distributed photovoltaic power station power prediction products [8]. Market and Policy Environment - The company is positioned to benefit from favorable policies and the increasing demand for distributed photovoltaic power station services, which are expected to drive significant growth in the coming years [8].
国能日新(301162):业绩符合预期,分布式功率预测和电力交易市场空间打开
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-04-16 04:42
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, with distributed power forecasting and the electricity trading market opening up significant growth opportunities [5][7] - The company achieved a revenue of 550 million RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.5%, and a net profit of 94 million RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 11.1% [7] - The revenue from power forecasting products steadily increased, with a gross margin of 69.3%, and the number of customers reached 4,345 by the end of 2024 [7] - The company’s revenue from grid connection control systems grew by 28% year-on-year, driven by record new installations of wind and solar power in 2024 [7] - Innovative businesses such as electricity trading and virtual power plants are being actively developed, with a revenue growth of 24% year-on-year [7] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 784 million RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 42.54% [6] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 143 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52.91% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.43 RMB in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 41.51 [6][8] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase to 11.07% in 2025 [6][8]