Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in the price of Moutai liquor reflects not only a market adjustment but also a transformation in the high-end consumption ecosystem [1] Group 1: Price Decline and Market Impact - The wholesale price of Moutai fell below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, reaching a low of 1485 yuan per bottle, marking a decline of over 33% from the high of around 2200 yuan earlier in the year [1][5] - The price volatility has resulted in significant losses for merchants who had previously stockpiled Moutai at high prices, with some reporting losses exceeding 600 yuan per bottle [8] - The market price briefly rebounded after hitting the low but quickly fell back to around 1545 yuan, indicating ongoing instability [3] Group 2: Demand and Supply Pressures - A notable decline in terminal demand is a direct cause of the price drop, with corporate banquet budgets shrinking by 30% due to economic downturns in real estate and infrastructure [5] - The implementation of strict alcohol consumption regulations has drastically reduced the proportion of government consumption from 40% to 0.8%, further impacting demand [5] - On the supply side, Moutai Group has increased production, leading to a surplus of 120 million bottles in the market, equivalent to two to three years of sales [5] Group 3: Responses and Future Outlook - In response to the market situation, Moutai has introduced measures to stabilize prices, including a 30% reduction in quotas for various Moutai products [10] - The company announced a substantial mid-term dividend of over 30 billion yuan to boost market confidence [10] - Analysts suggest that while these measures may provide short-term relief, the long-term recovery of Moutai's high premium status is uncertain without a significant improvement in consumer demand [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of Moutai's quantity control policy has led to a rebound in the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai, which rose from below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan to 1570 yuan per bottle [1] Group 1: Price and Supply Changes - Moutai plans to stop supplying all products to distributors by the end of the year and will reduce the quota for 1-liter Feitian Moutai by 30% and for Zodiac Moutai by 50% by 2026, completely halting the supply of colored glaze Moutai [1] - The wholesale price of She Moutai increased by 110 yuan per bottle to reach 1720 yuan [1] - Following the implementation of the quantity control policy, the market price of Feitian Moutai has risen to between 1650 and 1750 yuan, leading to an increase in sales [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Analyst Insights - The decision to implement quantity control is linked to the recent leadership change at Moutai, with new chairman Chen Hua's policies aimed at stabilizing market prices and managing the company's market value [3] - Analysts suggest that reducing the quota for non-standard products is a structural reform that alleviates financial pressure on distributors and stabilizes wholesale prices [3] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost demand for Moutai, although sales may not reach previous years' levels due to high personal stockpiling [4] Group 3: Financial Performance and Future Outlook - Moutai's revenue and net profit growth rates hit a multi-year low in the third quarter of 2025, indicating challenges in meeting growth targets set at the beginning of the year [4] - The proportion of sales during the Spring Festival, which typically accounts for 20%-30% of annual sales, is expected to decrease this year [4]

Core Viewpoint - Moutai has implemented a quantity control policy, leading to a significant price increase for its products, particularly the 2025 Flying Moutai, which has seen prices rise sharply in a short period [2][3][4]. Group 1: Price Changes - The wholesale price of the 2025 Flying Moutai increased from approximately 1499 yuan per bottle on December 12 to 1600 yuan by December 14, marking a near 100 yuan increase within two days [2]. - As of December 14, the retail price for the 2025 Flying Moutai ranged from 1600 to 1680 yuan per bottle, reflecting a general upward trend across various retailers [3]. - The wholesale reference price for the 2025 Flying Moutai on December 14 was reported at 1570 yuan per bottle, up 70 yuan from the previous day, indicating a consistent price increase [3]. Group 2: Sales and Market Dynamics - Sales volume for Moutai products has reportedly doubled in the days following the price increase, as consumers rush to purchase amid fears of further price hikes [2]. - A liquor store owner noted a 30% increase in sales compared to the previous week, driven by the recent price surge [3]. Group 3: Policy and Structural Changes - Moutai's recent policy includes a temporary halt on product distribution to dealers until January 1, 2026, aimed at alleviating financial pressure on dealers and preventing panic selling [4]. - In the long term, Moutai plans to significantly reduce the quotas for non-standard products, including a 30% cut for 15-year quotas and a 50% cut for zodiac Moutai, to tighten supply and enhance profitability [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current price rebound is a result of tightened supply and improved market expectations, with a focus on the limited growth in Moutai's base liquor production from 2021 to 2024 [5]. - The sustainability of the price increase will depend on three key factors: inventory reduction progress, the release schedule of core products in 2026, and actual consumer demand recovery [5].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai Co., Ltd. has announced a temporary suspension of product supply to distributors and a significant structural reform aimed at alleviating financial pressure on distributors during the year-end period [1][2][5]. Summary by Sections Short-term Measures - The company will immediately suspend the distribution of all Moutai products to distributors (with completed prepayments) until January 1, 2026, with a possibility of resuming before the Spring Festival depending on the situation [2][5]. - The purpose of this suspension is to reduce the financial burden on distributors and prevent panic selling due to loan repayments or new product payments during a financially tight year-end period [2][5]. Long-term Structural Reform - In 2026, Moutai plans to significantly reduce the quotas for non-standard products, which is a core aspect of the structural reform [2][5]. - Specific reductions include a 30% cut in quotas for Moutai 15-year and 1-liter Flying Moutai, a 50% cut for Zodiac Moutai, and a complete cessation of supply for the Color Glaze Rare Moutai [2][5]. Market Response - Following the announcement, the price of Flying Moutai has seen fluctuations, with a reported drop to 1560 RMB per bottle as of December 15, 2025, after briefly rising [6]. - The company has emphasized that its pricing strategy is primarily demand-driven and aims to protect channel resilience, with precise product allocation based on terminal sales performance [5][6]. Industry Context - The white liquor industry is currently under pressure, with analysts noting that the market is entering a phase of "passive destocking," which may stabilize prices for mainstream liquor products after the holiday season [7].

Core Viewpoint - A document claiming to be from Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. regarding product supply and structural reforms has circulated on social media, but the company has confirmed it is fake [1][4]. Group 1: Immediate Measures - The company announced an immediate suspension of all product shipments to distributors until January 1, 2026, to alleviate financial pressure during the year-end period [2]. - This suspension aims to prevent panic selling by distributors who may need to repay loans or pay for new stock [2]. Group 2: Long-term Structural Reforms - The company plans to significantly reduce the quotas for non-standard products as part of its long-term structural reforms for 2026 [2]. - Specific reductions include a 30% cut in quotas for Moutai 15-year and 1-liter Flying Moutai, a 50% cut for Zodiac Moutai, and a complete cessation of supply for Color Glaze Rare Moutai [2]. Group 3: Market Response - Following the circulation of the fake document, the wholesale price of Flying Moutai briefly rose but then fell again, with prices reported at 1560 yuan per bottle on December 15, down from 1570 yuan [4]. - On December 12, the price had dipped below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, reaching 1495 yuan [4].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai has implemented a supply control policy, halting the distribution of all Moutai products to distributors until January 1, 2026, leading to a significant price increase for its flagship product, Feitian Moutai [1][10]. Price Dynamics - The market price for 2025 Feitian Moutai has surged from approximately 1499 yuan per bottle on December 12 to 1600 yuan by December 14, reflecting a rapid price change within a short period [2][6]. - Sales volume has doubled in the days following the announcement of the supply halt, as consumers rush to purchase amid fears of further price increases [4][6]. Supply Control Measures - Moutai's short-term measures include a complete halt on product distribution to distributors until early January 2026, aimed at alleviating financial pressure on distributors during the year-end period [8][10]. - The company plans to significantly reduce the quotas for non-standard products, with specific reductions including a 30% cut for Moutai 15-year and 1-liter Feitian Moutai, a 50% cut for Zodiac Moutai, and a complete cessation of supply for colorful rare Moutai [8][10]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The recent price rebound is attributed to tightened supply and improved market expectations, with industry experts noting that the production growth of Moutai's base liquor has nearly stagnated from 2021 to 2024, reinforcing scarcity expectations [10]. - Key factors influencing future price movements include the pace of inventory reduction, the release schedule for core products in 2026, and the actual recovery of consumer demand [11].

第三方平台"今日酒价"数据显示，12月14日，2025年53度500ml飞天茅台散瓶批发参考价回升至1570元/ 瓶，原箱产品报价为1590元/瓶，较12月12日分别回升85元、95元。 据风芒新闻，12月14日，飞天茅台批发价单日暴涨近百元，湖南长沙一酒行老板告诉记者，茅台今日调 货价格达到1620元，其称，早几天没人要货，现在都在求货， "一小时一个价格，还有涨价的趋势"。 据经销商透露，12月13日，2025年53度500ml飞天茅台的价格跳涨了4次，18点左右，拿货价格已达到 1580元/瓶。12月12日，原箱飞天茅台酒报价低至1490元/瓶。12月13日早晨，直接跳涨20元/瓶，至1510 元/瓶。随后，开启飙升模式。 有酒商反馈称，12月14日天津飞天茅台拿货已经涨到1630元/瓶，两日涨幅超过150元/瓶。根据第三方 平台报价数据，14日早间飞天茅台散瓶批价上涨至1570元/瓶，原箱1590元/瓶，比上一日有70元的涨 幅。天津和江苏酒商表示，由于周末茅台经销商休息，黄牛已经开始坐地抬价，一天价格多次调整，甚 至改成时价拿货。批价上涨也带动了线下零售终端的价格上涨，北京部分烟酒店的茅台价格已经回 ...

据悉，茅台近期推出控量政策，年内暂停向经销商发放所有茅台产品，飞天批价应声大涨，连续两日涨近100元。 12月14日，25年飞天茅台批价继续大幅回升，已逼近1600元关口。此前的12月12日，25年飞天茅台批价跌破官方指导价1499元，但在12月13日已涨回1500 元关口， | 茅台飞天 | | | 2025年12月14日 (公众号: 今日酒价) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名 | 规格 | 昨日行情 | 今日行情 | | 团 25年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1520 | 1590 t | | ② 25年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1500 | 1570 t | | 24年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1580 | 1630 t | | 24年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1550 | 1620 t | | 23年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1800 | 1800 | | 23年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1700 | 1700 | | 公斤茅台(原) | 53度/1L | 2900 | 2900 | 2 ...

第三方平台"今日酒价"数据显示，12月14日，2025年53度500ml飞天茅台散瓶批发参考价回升至1570元/瓶，原箱产品报价为1590元/瓶，较12月12日分别回 升85元、95元。 肖竹青介绍， 茅台的短期措施为2025年12月内停止向经销商发放所有茅台产品（预付款已完成），直至2026年1月1日，后续在适当时机恢复。此举旨在 缓解年底经销商资金紧张 压力，直接为经销商减负，防止其因偿还贷款或支付新货款而出现恐慌性抛售行为。 中长期结构性改革方面，2026年贵州茅台计划大幅削减非标产品配额，从源头减少令经销渠道利润缩减的产品供应。具体方案为：茅台15年配额削减 30%、1升装飞天茅台配额削减30%、生肖茅台配额削减50%，彩釉珍品茅台则完全停止供应。 肖竹青认为，大幅削减非标产品配额，将从源头减少使经销渠道利润缩减的产品供应。 但对于上述情况，贵州茅台官方暂未公布相关内容。 近日，贵州茅台召开2025年第一次临时股东大会。茅台集团党委书记、董事长陈华率领公司管理层与投资者就茅台当下所面临的挑战及未来的战略部署进 行讨论。 | | 茅台飞天 | 2025年12月1 3 日 | | | --- | --- ...

12月13日，一张署名为"贵州茅台酒股份有限公司"的内部通知截图在社交平台与酒类经销圈内流传，引发市场广泛关注。 从网传图片内容来看，该通知标题为《贵州茅台酒股份有限公司关于产品供应及结构改革的通知》，落款时间为2025年12月13日，并加盖公司印章。通知 内容主要分为"短期措施"和"中长期结构性改革"两部分。 将立即暂停向经销商发放所有茅台产品（预付款已完成），暂停时间至2026年1月1日，春节前视情况再行恢复。通知给出的目的解释为，在年底资金紧张 时期，直接为经销商减负，防止其因偿还贷款或支付新货款而出现恐慌性抛售。 在针对2026年的中长期结构性改革部分，通知提出将大幅削减非标产品配额，其中包括： 茅台15年配额削减30%；1升装飞天茅台配额削减30%；生肖茅台配额削减50%；彩釉珍品茅台配额削减100%，即完全停止供应。 其中，最受市场关注的一条是，通知明确写道："飞天茅台低于1650元出货的，立即取消经销商资格。" 上述条款在经销商与投资者群体中引发激烈讨论，不少业内人士认为，这一表述如果属实，意味着茅台将首次以明确价格红线的方式，对渠道出货行为进 行强力约束。 通知称： 有博主表示，"这种大招不能 ...