T a [ 行业研究|可选消费 证券研究报告 可选消费行业周报、月报 2025 年 07 月 01 日 b l [Table_Title] 锦波生物引入养生堂战略投资，老铺黄金加 e _ M 密上海布局 ——美护商社行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 市场表现 维持行业"推荐"评级，重点关注美护、IP 衍生品、黄金珠宝等新消 费板块。标的方面推荐：上美股份、巨子生物、丸美生物、润本股份、 珀莱雅、潮宏基、布鲁可、福瑞达等。 风险提示 ] 本周（2025.06.23-2025.06.27），商贸零售/社会服务/美容护理分别 +4.56%/+4.61%/+1.04%，在 31 个一级行业中排名第 9/8/24，同期上 证综指+1.91%，深证成指+3.73%，沪深 300+1.95%。 细分子板块来看，本周商贸零售/社会服务/美容护理各大二级子板块 普涨。教育/专业连锁/贸易涨幅居前，分别+7.47%/+7.42%/+5.2%。 本周行业重点事件及资讯 （1）美护：国家药监局发布关于《已使用化妆品原料目录》管理有关 事项的公告，将两个安全监测期已满 3 年的化妆品新原料纳入《已使 用化妆品原料目 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The beauty and personal care sector experienced a significant increase, with the index reaching a two-year high and the sector rising nearly 2% on May 9 [1] - Several companies within the sector reported notable growth in their financial performance, with leading company Proya (珀莱雅) achieving a revenue of 2.359 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.13%, and a net profit of 390 million yuan, up 28.87% [1] - Other companies in the sector, such as Nobon (诺邦股份), Qingsong (青松股份), and Jinbo (锦波股份), reported growth rates exceeding 50% in the first quarter [1] Group 2: Key Trends and Consumer Behavior - According to a report by Mintel, the trend of "Beauty in Body and Mind" is one of the three major trends influencing the global beauty and personal care industry in the coming years [2] - The rise of the "颜值经济" (beauty economy) and "悦己潮流" (self-pleasure trend) has led consumers to purchase functional skincare products, trendy makeup, and home fragrances for self-healing purposes [2] Group 3: Notable Companies in the Sector - Proya focuses on the research, production, and sales of cosmetic products, with brands including "Proya," "Caitang," "Off&Relax," and "Yuefuti" [2] - Shanghai Jahwa (上海家化) specializes in the research, production, and sales of daily chemical products, including personal care and beauty products [2] - Furuida (福瑞达) has transitioned into the health industry through acquisitions, creating a full industry chain from hyaluronic acid raw materials to products [2] - Huaxi Biological (华熙生物) is a leading high-tech enterprise in the production of hyaluronic acid through microbial fermentation technology [2] - Betaini (贝泰妮) operates a subsidiary focused on medical beauty services, including laser and micro-needle treatments [2] - Shuiyang (水羊股份) has launched a light medical beauty brand, primarily sold through online platforms [2] - Nobon produces water-jet non-woven materials used in beauty care, industrial materials, and medical supplies [2] - Marubi (丸美生物) specializes in the research, design, production, and sales of cosmetics, focusing on eye care, skincare, and cleansing products [2]

Group 1 - The Zhejiang Jinhua Market Supervision Administration has announced the results of the 2024 cosmetic city-level supervision sampling inspection [3][4]. - The inspection covers various cosmetic products from multiple manufacturers, indicating a regulatory effort to ensure product safety and compliance [4][5]. Group 2 - The inspection results include a list of products, their manufacturers, and the sampling details, which reflect the ongoing monitoring of cosmetic quality in the region [4][6]. - Notable brands such as Mentholatum, Unilever, and Oushiman are included in the sampling, showcasing the involvement of major players in the cosmetic industry [4][5][6].

一季度盈利超预期，新兴品牌快速增长 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据年报和一季报，我们调整盈利预测并引入 2027 年的盈利预测，预计公司 2025- 2027 年每股收益分别为 4.56、5.36 和 6.06 元（原 25-26 年为 4.97 和 6.15 元）， DCF 目标估值 112.46 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、终端消费需求减弱、新品拓展不及预期等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 8,905 | 10,778 | 12,339 | 14,072 | 15,577 | | 同比增长 (%) | 39.5% | 21.0% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 10.7% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,503 | 1,890 | 2,200 | 2,584 | 2,923 | | 同比增长 (%) | 42.1% | 25.8% | 16.4% | 17.5% | 13.1% | | 归属母 ...

一季度盈利超预期，新兴品牌快速增长 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据年报和一季报，我们调整盈利预测并引入 2027 年的盈利预测，预计公司 2025- 2027 年每股收益分别为 4.56、5.36 和 6.06 元（原 25-26 年为 4.97 和 6.15 元）， DCF 目标估值 112.46 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、终端消费需求减弱、新品拓展不及预期等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 8,905 | 10,778 | 12,339 | 14,072 | 15,577 | | 同比增长 (%) | 39.5% | 21.0% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 10.7% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,503 | 1,890 | 2,200 | 2,584 | 2,923 | | 同比增长 (%) | 42.1% | 25.8% | 16.4% | 17.5% | 13.1% | | 归属母 ...

Core Viewpoint - Proya has reported strong financial performance with 2024 revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 10.778 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 30% year-on-year [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Proya achieved revenue of 2.36 billion yuan, representing an 8.1% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 390 million yuan [1] - The 2024 revenue of Proya was 8.581 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 19.55% [2] - The main brand Proya generated 8.58 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 79.7% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 19.6% [3] Management Changes - The management transition marked a strategic shift for the company, with co-founder Fang Yu-you stepping down as general manager, succeeded by his nephew Hou Ya-meng [2] - Despite the leadership change, Proya aims to establish itself among the top ten global cosmetics companies in the next decade [2] Brand and Product Development - Proya has diversified its brand portfolio, including popular skincare and makeup brands, with significant growth in sub-brands like Off&Relax and Cai Tang [3] - The company has accelerated product launches in 2025, introducing several new products within five months [5] Sales and Marketing Strategy - Proya's online sales reached 10.234 billion yuan, accounting for 95.06% of total revenue, while offline sales decreased by 13.63% to 532 million yuan [3] - The company has invested heavily in marketing, with sales expenses amounting to 5.161 billion yuan, representing 47.88% of revenue, and an increase of 29.93% year-on-year [4] Research and Development - Proya has established R&D centers in multiple locations and formed a joint venture for core anti-aging ingredients, although R&D expenses remain below 2% of revenue [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.8 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.0%, with a net profit of 1.55 billion yuan, up 30% year-on-year [4][6]. - The performance of smaller brands was notably strong, with online sales growth contributing significantly to overall revenue [5]. - The gross margin improved to 71.4% in 2024, driven by lower shipping costs and increased average transaction value [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.78 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.55 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 30% [10][13]. - The company expects net profits to reach 1.84 billion yuan in 2025, 2.20 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.60 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 15, and 13 [7][10]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable at around 71.5% from 2025 to 2027, while the net profit margin is expected to slightly increase [10][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.8 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.0%, with a net profit of 1.55 billion yuan, up 30% year-on-year [4][6]. - The performance of smaller brands was notably strong, with online sales growth contributing significantly to overall revenue [5]. - The gross margin improved to 71.4% in 2024, driven by lower shipping costs and increased average transaction values [6]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.78 billion yuan, with a projected revenue growth rate of 21.04% [10][13]. - The net profit for 2024 was 1.552 billion yuan, with an expected growth rate of 30% [10][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is reported at 3.92 yuan, with projections of 4.65 yuan for 2025 and 5.55 yuan for 2026 [10][13]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 27.1%, indicating a solid financial position [3][13].