珀莱雅 603605.SH 公司研究 | 中报点评 中报展现多品牌韧性 拟发行 H 股拉开国际 化新篇章 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据中报，我们小幅调整公司盈利预测，预计公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 4.44、5.13 和 5.88 元（原预测分别为为 4.56、5.36 和 6.06 元），DCF 目标估值 112.65 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 行业竞争加剧、终端消费需求减弱、新品拓展不及预期等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 8,905 | 10,778 | 11,784 | 12,926 | 14,156 | | 同比增长 (%) | 39.5% | 21.0% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,503 | 1,890 | 2,141 | 2,475 | 2,837 | | 同比增长 (%) | 42.1% | 25.8% | 13.3% | 15.6 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Lianhe Credit Rating Co., Ltd. maintains the long-term credit rating of Proya Cosmetics Co., Ltd. at AA, with a stable outlook for both the company and its convertible bonds, indicating strong financial health and operational performance [1][3][4]. Company Overview - Proya Cosmetics Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, production, and sales of cosmetics, maintaining competitive advantages in brand recognition, product diversity, and R&D capabilities [4][9]. - The company has a diverse brand portfolio including Proya, Caitang, Off&Relax, and others, covering various segments of the cosmetics market [9][14]. Financial Performance - For 2024, Proya reported a total revenue of 107.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.04%, and a profit of 18.89 billion yuan, up 26.34% from the previous year [4][10]. - As of March 2025, the company had cash assets of 47.34 billion yuan, with a low debt burden reflected in an asset-liability ratio of 28.15% [6][10]. Operational Strategy - The company successfully implemented a "big single product strategy," enhancing its market share in key categories and achieving significant sales growth through online channels [5][15]. - Proya's production capacity increased to 40.118 million units per year, with a focus on flexible production and inventory management [21][22]. R&D and Innovation - In 2024, Proya increased its R&D investment by 21.21%, totaling 2.10 billion yuan, and obtained 25 new patents, enhancing its technological edge [5][16]. - The company has established a European innovation center in Paris to strengthen its R&D capabilities [15]. Industry Context - The cosmetics industry in China is characterized by low technical barriers and high competition, with many players and a low market concentration [12][13]. - The online retail market for cosmetics is growing, with Proya ranking among the top companies in various categories on platforms like Tmall and Douyin [5][12]. Future Outlook - The stable rating outlook suggests that Proya's operational performance and competitive position are expected to improve further, driven by enhanced R&D and brand development [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the leadership transition at Proya, highlighting the challenges faced by the new CEO, Hou Yameng, in shifting the company's focus from marketing to research and development, amidst significant executive turnover and a legacy of high marketing expenses [1][10]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Wang Li, the Vice General Manager and Secretary of the Board, resigned two years before her term ended, indicating potential instability in the company's leadership [4]. - Several key executives, including the R&D Director and Chief Marketing Officer, have left the company recently, suggesting a significant shift in the management team [4][5]. - Hou Yameng, the son of the company's actual controllers, has taken over as CEO, marking a generational transition in leadership [5]. Group 2: R&D and Marketing Focus - Despite Hou Yameng's efforts to enhance R&D hiring, Proya still struggles with the perception of being "heavy on marketing and light on R&D" [10]. - In 2024, Proya's sales expenses reached 5.16 billion yuan, a 30% increase year-on-year, with a sales expense ratio of 48% [10]. - The company's R&D expense ratio has remained around 2%, which is relatively low compared to industry standards, indicating a potential area for improvement [10]. Group 3: Historical Context - Proya's rise can be attributed to effective marketing strategies, including collaborations with influencers and the introduction of popular product lines [8][9]. - The company's founder, Hou Jun Cheng, initially built trust by distributing established brands before launching Proya as its own brand [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, with revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan and significant profit growth, indicating robust market positioning and operational efficiency [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.778 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.552 billion yuan, up 30.0% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.359 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 390 million yuan, a 28.9% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company maintained over 20% profit growth in both Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, benefiting from improved gross margins and cost control [1]. Product Strategy - The company has been reinforcing its "big product strategy" since 2024, focusing on upgrading core product lines and launching new products targeting specific consumer needs, such as whitening and oil control [2]. - The upgrades to existing product lines and the introduction of new series are expected to drive continued double-digit growth on the foundation of over 10 billion yuan in revenue [2]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 12.584 billion yuan, 14.440 billion yuan, and 16.302 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 16.75%, 14.75%, and 12.89% [3]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.821 billion yuan, 2.121 billion yuan, and 2.440 billion yuan, with growth rates of 17.33%, 16.47%, and 15.06% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 4.60 yuan, 5.35 yuan, and 6.16 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 exceeded expectations, showcasing its leading position in the cosmetics industry [9] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 10.778 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.04%, while net profit is expected to be 1.552 billion yuan, up 30% [9] - The main brand continues to grow, with online sales maintaining high growth rates [9] - The gross margin has reached new highs, driven by improved sales expense ratios and better management of sub-brands [9] - The company aims to enter the top ten global cosmetics brands within ten years, indicating a strong long-term growth strategy [9] Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million yuan) is forecasted as follows: 2023A: 8,905; 2024A: 10,778; 2025E: 12,750; 2026E: 14,484; 2027E: 16,294 [1][10] - Net profit (in million yuan) is projected as follows: 2023A: 1,194; 2024A: 1,552; 2025E: 1,858; 2026E: 2,160; 2027E: 2,480 [1][10] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 3.92 yuan for 2024, increasing to 6.26 yuan by 2027 [1][10] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 71.39% in 2024, improving to 73.60% by 2027 [10] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 28.73% in 2024 to 21.20% in 2027, reflecting a long-term growth strategy [10]

Group 1: Market Overview - A-shares experienced a decline with a trading volume of 1.07 trillion yuan, while the largest consumer ETF (159928) slightly dropped by 0.37% with a trading volume of nearly 300 million yuan, indicating high trading activity [1] - Over the past 60 days, there has been a continuous inflow of funds into consumer stocks, totaling nearly 2.6 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Proya, a leading domestic beauty brand, has gained market attention due to its impressive annual and quarterly reports, achieving a consecutive increase in stock price [3] - Proya's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 10.234 billion yuan, with online sales accounting for 95.06% of total revenue, reflecting strong organizational efficiency and brand growth potential [3][4] - In Q1 2024, Proya's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 29% year-on-year, showcasing improved operational quality [4] Group 3: Consumer Sector Earnings - Wuliangye reported Q1 2024 revenue of 36.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, with a net profit of 14.86 billion yuan, also up by 5.8% [5] - Among the 41 constituent stocks of the consumer ETF (159928), 22 have released Q1 reports, with 14 showing positive year-on-year growth in net profit, representing 64% [5][7] - Major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs have turned profitable, with net profit growth exceeding 200% [5] Group 4: Financial Metrics - The consumer ETF (159928) has seen a net inflow of nearly 2.6 billion yuan over the past 60 days, with the latest share count reaching nearly 19 billion, maintaining historical highs [8] - The constituent index of the consumer ETF achieved a record net profit of 191.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters of the previous year, marking a year-on-year growth of 29.44% [8] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio for the consumer ETF is 20.37, which is at a low valuation compared to the past decade, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [8][10]