（来源：南京晨报） 转自：南京晨报 近日，南京市妇幼保健院妇科内分泌科副主任医师孙艳丽在门诊接诊了一位特殊患者。该患者口服黄体 酮胶囊第一盒时无任何不适，服用第二盒期间却突然出现头晕、昏倒症状。经详细问诊，医生发现关键 诱因——患者服药期间食用了柚子。西柚，这一常见水果，为何会与妇科内分泌药物产生如此强烈的反 应？ 孙艳丽介绍，西柚中含有呋喃香豆素类化合物，这类物质会抑制人体内的药物代谢酶CYP3A4的活性。 血液中需要该酶代谢的药物浓度便会异常升高，相当于间接"加量"服药，进而引发一系列不良反应。 在妇科内分泌领域，以下几类常用药物，需与西柚保持明确的"安全距离"： 1.孕激素类药物 如黄体酮、地屈孕酮等，常用于调节月经周期、保胎治疗。与西柚同服时，血药浓度升高易引发头晕、 嗜睡、恶心，严重时可能出现昏厥、心悸，就像上述案例中的患者一样。 2.雌激素类药物 包括雌二醇、戊酸雌二醇等，多用于激素替代治疗、改善围绝经期症状。西柚会增强此类药物的药效， 可能导致体内雌激素水平过高，增加乳房胀痛、不规则阴道出血等风险。 3.短效口服避孕药 西柚与部分短效口服避孕药同服，可干扰药物代谢，加重恶心、头晕、头痛、乳房胀等 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but improvement is expected in the second half of the year [1] - Revenue and profit forecasts have been adjusted, with earnings per share projected at 0.61, 0.70, and 0.86 yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [2] - The target price is set at 12.81 yuan based on a 17x P/E ratio for 2026 [2] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 4,123 million yuan in 2023, with a projected decline to 3,837 million yuan in 2025, followed by a recovery to 4,429 million yuan in 2026 and 5,181 million yuan in 2027 [4] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 52.9% in 2023 to 65.0% by 2027 [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 563 million yuan in 2023 to 852 million yuan in 2027, with a significant jump of 51.9% in 2025 [4] - The company’s earnings per share are projected to rise from 0.57 yuan in 2023 to 0.86 yuan in 2027 [4] Market and Product Insights - The company is experiencing challenges in raw material and formulation sales, but there is potential for recovery as export prices stabilize and the impact of centralized procurement diminishes [8] - The overseas market is becoming a new growth driver, with a reported revenue of 5.41 billion yuan from international operations, reflecting a 5.1% year-on-year increase [8] - The company has a robust pipeline of new products, with several new drugs and complex formulations expected to receive approval soon, enhancing future growth prospects [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to reduced income from Xianyao Trading and price drops in self-operated raw materials and certain products included in national procurement [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved revenue of 1.869 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 12.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 308 million yuan, down 9.3% year-over-year [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 861 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 21.7%, while net profit was 164 million yuan, down 12.9% year-over-year [1] - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to decreased income from Xianyao Trading, price reductions in self-operated raw materials, and price drops of products like Sugammadex and Dexamethasone due to inclusion in national procurement [1] Group 2: Raw Material Sector - The raw material segment generated revenue of 730 million yuan in 1H25, a decrease of 20% year-over-year [2] - Self-operated raw materials accounted for 423 million yuan in revenue, down 13.6% year-over-year, with expectations of slight revenue decline for 2025 due to price pressure in the non-standard market [2] - The Italian subsidiary reported revenue of 305 million yuan, an increase of 2.7% year-over-year, with expectations of single-digit growth for 2025 due to anticipated economic recovery overseas [2] - Xianyao Trading's revenue plummeted to 1.78 million yuan, a staggering decline of 98% year-over-year [2] Group 3: Formulation Sector - The formulation segment reported revenue of 1.127 billion yuan in 1H25, down 7.2% year-over-year, with expectations of over 10% revenue growth in 2024 [3] - Gynecology products generated 207 million yuan in revenue, down 11% year-over-year, primarily due to regional procurement impacts on progesterone capsules [3] - The anesthesia segment maintained revenue at 60 million yuan, while the respiratory segment saw a 13% year-over-year increase, achieving 446 million yuan in revenue [3] Group 4: R&D Pipeline - The company is approaching a period of intensive product launches, with several exclusive or first-generic products expected to hit the market soon [4] - Key upcoming products include: - Gonanes (exclusive, long-acting contraceptive, peak sales ~1.5 billion yuan) - Drospirenone (first-generic, short-acting contraceptive, approved in April 2023, peak sales 500-1,000 million yuan) - Estradiol Valerate (first-generic, approved in July 2024, peak sales 500-1,000 million yuan) [4] - New drugs in the anesthesia and respiratory categories are also in various stages of clinical trials, with significant peak sales potential [4] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to price pressure in the non-standard raw material market, the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 575 million, 629 million, and 752 million yuan, representing decreases of 10.7%, 15.6%, and 15.2% respectively [5] - Based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, the company is valued at 13.871 billion yuan, with a target price of 14.02 yuan, slightly up from the previous 13.86 yuan, primarily due to an increase in comparable company PE [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 14.02 [1]. Core Views - The company's performance has been negatively impacted by domestic formulation centralized procurement and a decrease in raw material prices, leading to a revenue decline of 12.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [1]. - Despite the challenges, the report anticipates a recovery due to the clearance of procurement risks, accelerated approval of specialty formulations, and the upcoming market launch of a new drug, Omakesong Sodium [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 1.869 billion, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 308 million, down 9.3% year-on-year [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of RMB 861 million, a decline of 21.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 164 million, down 12.9% year-on-year [1]. Raw Material Segment - The raw material segment generated revenue of RMB 730 million in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 20% year-on-year [2]. - The self-operated raw materials accounted for RMB 423 million, down 13.6% year-on-year, while the Italian subsidiary reported revenue of RMB 305 million, an increase of 2.7% year-on-year [2]. Formulation Segment - The formulation segment's revenue was RMB 1.127 billion in the first half of 2025, down 7.2% year-on-year [3]. - The gynecology segment reported revenue of RMB 207 million, down 11% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of regional procurement [3]. - The respiratory segment showed growth, with revenue of RMB 446 million, up 13% year-on-year, and is expected to achieve nearly 20% revenue growth in 2025 [3]. R&D Pipeline - The company is approaching a period of intensive product launches, with several exclusive or first-generic products expected to hit the market soon [4]. - Key upcoming products include long-acting contraceptive Gengsu Acetate and new anesthetics, with peak sales potential ranging from RMB 5 billion to over RMB 20 billion for various products [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to RMB 575 million, RMB 629 million, and RMB 752 million, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 10.7%, 15.6%, and 15.2% [5]. - The overall valuation of the company is estimated at RMB 13.871 billion, corresponding to a target price of RMB 14.02, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method [5][11].