Core Viewpoint - The recent easing of the market liquidity is attributed to the coordinated efforts of monetary and fiscal policies, leading to a self-implemented "interest rate cut" effect in the market [1][2][3]. Monetary Policy - Since April, major money market interest rates have significantly declined, with the 7-day bond repurchase rate (DR007) dropping below 2%, reaching a low of 1.54% in late April, the lowest since 2021 [2]. - The average monthly values for DR007 and the 1-year interbank certificate of deposit rates in April were 1.82% and 2.48%, respectively, both lower than the central bank's policy rates by 28 and 37 basis points [2]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented various measures, including a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut and special relending tools, to maintain reasonable liquidity [3][5]. Fiscal Policy - The acceleration of fiscal spending is evident, with the general public budget expenditure reaching 7.24 trillion yuan by mid-April, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [4]. - Tax reduction policies have been expedited, with 625.6 billion yuan in tax refunds processed since April [4]. - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to accelerate, potentially becoming a short-term liquidity factor, with a total of 3.65 trillion yuan in new special bond quotas allocated for project investments [6]. Market Outlook - The liquidity environment is expected to remain moderately loose, with no significant tightening anticipated in May, despite the potential for increased local bond issuance [5][7]. - Analysts predict that the PBOC will maintain stable liquidity provision in May, with fiscal fund disbursements expected to be at least as high as in April [6][7]. - Overall, the market is likely to experience a continued low interest rate environment, although further declines may be limited [7].

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank is expected to continue using targeted structural monetary policy tools to support enterprises affected by the pandemic, with a focus on increasing loan support for private enterprises to restore effective financing demand and assist in reshaping the industrial chain [2][3] - The possibility of lowering the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is anticipated, as it would have a significant impact on stabilizing housing loans and expectations, especially given the current weak credit structure [3] - The monetary policy will also focus on stabilizing employment, prices, and promoting domestic demand while mitigating risks, which requires support for struggling industries and enhancing effective investment [3] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Developments - Fiscal policy is expected to continue to be strengthened in the second half of the year, with the issuance of special bonds reaching 34,062 billion yuan in the first half, completing 98.7% of the allocated quota [4] - There is potential for increasing the issuance of special bonds or advancing the issuance of next year's special bonds to address economic pressures [4][5] - The use of special bonds is anticipated to accelerate, with expectations for infrastructure investment and tax reductions to alleviate fiscal pressure [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's monetary policy reform has been ongoing for nearly a year, transitioning towards a "price-based" adjustment mechanism while increasing the use of structural monetary policy tools. The article explores the innovations in the monetary policy framework, the actual usage of structural tools, and the changes in market interest rates [1][4][26]. Group 1: Changes in Monetary Policy Framework - The central bank has established a liquidity supply structure that includes pledged reverse repos for short-term liquidity, buyout reverse repos for medium-term liquidity, and MLF, reserve requirements, and secondary market purchases of government bonds for long-term liquidity [12]. - The process of interest rate liberalization has accelerated since 2013, with significant milestones including the introduction of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and the establishment of the interest rate corridor mechanism [4][6]. - A narrower "overnight-7 days" interest rate corridor has been implemented, allowing for more flexible monetary policy adjustments and a higher tolerance for upward interest rate fluctuations [6][8]. Group 2: Current Status of Structural Tools - The transmission of monetary policy is hindered by a lack of endogenous financing demand, with funds not converting into real investments and consumption due to economic structural transformation and internal circulation of funds within the banking system [2][13]. - The usage rates of structural monetary policy tools are low, with only a few tools exceeding a 50% usage rate, while many others, particularly those targeting real estate and transportation, are below 30% [18][19]. - The challenges in utilizing structural tools stem from industry development limitations and execution difficulties, as well as the cyclical nature of industries and declining relative advantages [19][23]. Group 3: Impact of Framework Adjustments on Interest Rates - The central bank is likely to separate the policy goals of narrow and broad liquidity, maintaining a balance that does not adversely affect real financing [26]. - Market interest rates have shown three types of inversion phenomena, including the inversion between 7-day and overnight rates, indicating a mismatch in the transmission of interest rates from short to long [29][31]. - The yield curve for government bonds has flattened, with short-term rates rising sharply due to tightening liquidity, while long-term rates remain constrained by economic fundamentals and expectations of interest rate cuts [33].