证券研究报告·新股研究报告·原材料(HS) 鸣鸣很忙（01768.HK） 国内休闲食饮连锁零售领军企业，开启量贩 零食 3.0 时代 投资评级（暂无） 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S0600524080008 xiy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李茵琦 | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 10,295.32 | 39,343.51 | 64,522.41 | 82,199.78 | 94,384.92 | | 同比（%） | 140.22 | 282.15 | 64.00 | 27.40 | 14.82 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 217.43 | 833.70 | 2,246.45 | 3,019.30 | 3,731.59 | | 同比（%） | 203.45 | 283.44 | 169.45 | 34.40 | 23.59 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.02 | 3.89 | 1 ...

鸣鸣很忙（01768.HK） 国内休闲食饮连锁零售领军企业，开启量贩 零食 3.0 时代 投资评级（暂无） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 10,295.32 | 39,343.51 | 64,522.41 | 82,199.78 | 94,384.92 | | 同比（%） | 140.22 | 282.15 | 64.00 | 27.40 | 14.82 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 217.43 | 833.70 | 2,246.45 | 3,019.30 | 3,731.59 | | 同比（%） | 203.45 | 283.44 | 169.45 | 34.40 | 23.59 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.02 | 3.89 | 10.49 | 14.10 | 17.43 | | P/E（发行价&最新摊 | 207.35 | 54.08 | 20.07 | 14.93 | 12.08 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emerging trend of "water substitutes" in the beverage market, particularly focusing on the growth of sugar-free tea and traditional Chinese health waters, highlighting their potential to replace sugary drinks and bottled water [4][12][25]. Group 1: Market Trends - The concept of "water substitutes" has gained traction, appealing to consumers seeking healthier options that are flavorful yet low in sugar [4][12]. - The market for sugar-free tea has seen explosive growth, with the number of new products launched in 2023 reaching 157, compared to 93 in the previous year [8]. - Traditional Chinese health waters have also experienced significant growth, with the market size increasing from 0.1 billion to 4.5 billion in just a few years, marking a growth of over 350% [10][11]. Group 2: Consumer Preferences - Consumers are increasingly rejecting sugary drinks in favor of flavorful alternatives that align with their health-conscious lifestyles, leading to a convergence of demand for sugar-free tea and health waters [12][25]. - The diversity in flavors offered by health waters provides a competitive edge over sugar-free tea, enhancing their appeal to consumers [12][25]. Group 3: Product Development - Companies are focusing on creating health waters that are both palatable and affordable, with a target price range of 4-7 yuan for sugar-free beverages [17][18]. - Boxed water products have seen price adjustments to remain competitive, with some products dropping from 7.9 yuan to 5.9 yuan shortly after launch [18][19]. - The collaboration between Hema and traditional Chinese medicine brand Li Liangji aims to enhance product appeal by improving taste while maintaining health benefits [22][23]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The market is becoming increasingly competitive, with new entrants and established brands alike innovating to capture market share in the health water segment [21][25]. - Companies are exploring various strategies, including product differentiation, targeting specific consumer demographics, and enhancing flavor profiles without using artificial sweeteners [20][25].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of "water substitutes" is transforming the beverage market, with a focus on health-conscious consumers seeking flavorful, low-sugar options. This trend is particularly evident in the growth of traditional Chinese herbal drinks and sugar-free teas, which are increasingly competing for market share in the beverage industry [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Trends - The concept of "water substitutes" has emerged as a healthier alternative to sugary drinks and bottled water, appealing to a broad consumer base [1][4]. - The market for traditional Chinese herbal drinks is projected to reach approximately 10.8 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of about 88.9% from 2024 to 2028 [6][4]. - The number of new sugar-free tea products launched in 2023 reached 157, indicating a significant increase in market activity [5]. Group 2: Product Development - Boxed water products like "暑清元气水" and "五汁饮" represent the evolution of herbal drinks, with over 20 new products launched by Boxed in this category [1][4]. - The success of these products is attributed to their appealing taste and lower price points, which are essential for consumer acceptance [11][12]. - Boxed has focused on improving the palatability of its herbal drinks while maintaining traditional recipes, collaborating with established brands like Li Liang Ji to enhance product credibility [15][16]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition in the "water substitute" market is intensifying, with both new entrants and established brands innovating to capture consumer interest [13][14]. - Traditional herbal drinks are now seen as a direct competitor to sugar-free teas, with expectations that they will surpass sugar-free beverages in market share [7][4]. - The pricing strategy for herbal drinks is crucial, with efforts to keep costs competitive with bottled water and sugary drinks [12][11].

Company Overview - Mingming Hen Mang Commercial Chain Co., Ltd. reported a retail revenue of 55.5 billion RMB and an annual revenue of 39.3 billion RMB, with over 14,394 stores as of April 28, 2024, indicating strong growth potential in a challenging market [2] - The company emerged from the merger of "Zero Snack Busy" and "Zhao Yiming Snacks" in 2024, combining strengths in market penetration and product selection [10] Market Insights - The Chinese snack retail market is projected to reach 1.3596 trillion RMB by 2025, showing steady growth [3] - Consumer demand for snacks is increasingly diverse, focusing on health, taste, convenience, and cost-effectiveness, leading to the rise of various new brands [7] Business Model and Strategy - Mingming Hen Mang operates on a low-price, high-quality model, with over 1,800 SKUs per store and a significant number of new products launched monthly [14] - The company maintains a strict supply chain management system, collaborating with 2,300 factories to reduce costs to 54%-70% of industry averages [14] - The company has established 36 warehouses nationwide, ensuring efficient logistics and fresh product delivery within 24 hours [15] Franchise and Expansion - The franchise model includes free franchise opportunities and comprehensive support for franchisees, enhancing profitability and brand cohesion [16] - 58% of the stores are located in lower-tier cities, demonstrating a strategic focus on market penetration across various demographics [16] Sales Channels and Marketing - Mingming Hen Mang employs a multi-channel sales strategy, including its own website, major e-commerce platforms, and delivery services, achieving an average delivery time of under 2 hours [17] - The brand utilizes social media and content marketing to connect with younger consumers, enhancing brand loyalty and influence [19] Industry Trends - The retail industry is shifting from a reliance on traffic-driven models to a focus on supply chain efficiency, with Mingming Hen Mang exemplifying this trend through its integrated supply chain approach [25] - The perception of lower-tier markets is evolving; they are seen as opportunities for diverse consumer needs rather than merely low-cost competition [25]