证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2025 年 08 月 06 日 强于大市 投资要点： 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《电子行业周报：雅江水电工程带动 HVDC 加 速发展》2025-07-29 《人工智能月度跟踪：全球最大参数模型 Kimi K2 发布-202507》2025-07-22 《电子行业周报：国产 EUV 光刻机进展加速》 2025-07-22 《电子行业周报：国产内存龙头启动 IPO 辅导， 产业链迎来发展机遇》2025-07-14 《电子行业周报：移动电源 3C 认证加速品牌 龙头发展》2025-07-07 许亮 S0820525010002 0755-83562506 xuliang@ajzq.com 行业及产业 电子 WAIC 2025，华为发布昇腾 384 超节点 ——电子行业周报（2025/7/28-8/1） 风险提示：1）国际贸易摩擦加剧 2）下游需求不及预期 3）技术升级进度滞后 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 印制电路板领涨电子行业。本周（2025/7/28-8/1）SW 电子行业指数(+0.28%)，涨 ...

短期调整告一段落，指数重回 3600 点上方。7 月末的快速调整并未改变市场原本的上行趋势，指 数在 20 日均线附近得到支撑后，周二重回 3600 点上方，继续维持震荡上行的格局。在 7 月末 3600 点 上方遇到阻力无法继续上攻之际，市场选择退守震荡不失为正常的市场节奏，休整后重新出发符合上涨 趋势行情的一般规律。目前市场沿着短期均线震荡盘升的态势明确，上行趋势保持良好，不必对短期震 荡过度担忧。由于上证指数已经正式突破 2024 年 11 月 8日的高点，因此判断自 2024 年四季度以来的 横盘震荡已经告一段落，短期震荡对中期方向不会产生影响。 后市展望：近期产业层面催化剂较多，后市可以乐观一些。近期各大行业催化剂较多，如雅鲁藏布 江下游电站启动、H20 芯片可能恢复出口、机器人/低空飞行器获得订单、世界人工智能大会、世界机 器人博览会等，均令市场风险偏好明显上升，后市可以乐观一些。在指数突破 3500 点之后，市场未来 的路径有两种可能：1）继续延续上升趋势，直接挑战 2024 年10 月 8 日的高点；2）在挑战 3674 高点 之前震荡蓄势，消化前期的套牢盘。行情一蹴而就挑战前高需要满足三个条 ...

章俊 首席经济学家 ☎：010-8092-8096 网: zhangjun_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523070003 彭雅哲 热点洞察系列研究报告 走深走实"以应用促创新"的 AI 产业发展之路 《关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》快评 2025年8月4日 核心观点 分析师 ☎：010-8092-7607 网: pengyazhe _yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525020001 研究助理:曾昭睿 我国 AI 产业发展处于"规模提升" 资料来源:中国银河证券研究 相关研究 20250731 【CGS-NDI 跟踪】 美国发布 AI 行动计划, 冲击 AI 竞争格局 -- 数字经济双周报 (202507 第 2 期) 20250429【CGS-NDI 热点洞察】坚持自立自强，促 进合作共赢 --- 中央政治局第二十次集体学习解读 20250120【CGS-NDI 研究】数字经济系列：从数实 融合到实数融合― 数字技术与价值场景的双向 奔赴 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025 年 08 月 04 日 通信 WAIC 2025 大会召开，海内外 AI 大模型加速更新迭代，看好算力 相关产业链投资机会 | 股票 | 股票 | 投资 | EPS （元） | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | 2025E | 2026E | 2025E | 2026E | | 002463.SZ | 沪电股份 | 买入 | 1.85 | 2.45 | 29.11 | 21.98 | | 002881.SZ | 美格智能 | 买入 | 0.73 | 0.92 | 62.56 | 49.64 | | 300308.SZ | 中际旭创 | 买入 | 7.6 | 8.29 | 27.71 | 25.41 | | 300394.SZ | 天孚通信 | 买入 | 3.68 | 4.53 | 29.32 | 23.81 | | 301285.SZ | 鸿日达 | 买入 | 0.21 | 0.7 | 199.86 | 59.96 | | 600941.SH | 中国移动 | 买入 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of 京沪高铁 (Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway) with a total revenue of 42.157 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.62%, and a net profit of 12.768 billion yuan, up 10.59% year-on-year, indicating resilience during the post-pandemic recovery phase [3][14][15] - The report emphasizes the emergence of国产算力 (domestic computing power) as a significant driver in the AI industry, with华为 (Huawei) showcasing its昇腾 384超节点 (Ascend 384 super node) at the WAIC 2025, which is the largest in the industry and demonstrates a shift from chip-centric to system-level optimization [6][8][10] Group 1: Communication Industry - The report discusses the role of major telecom operators like中国移动 (China Mobile), 中国电信 (China Telecom), and 中国联通 (China Unicom) in the AI landscape, showcasing their transformation into AI infrastructure providers and industry enablers, which injects strong momentum into the digital transformation of the economy [10][11] - The operators are investing heavily in computing infrastructure, with China Mobile planning to invest 37.3 billion yuan in computing power, while both China Telecom and China Unicom are increasing their investments by over 20% year-on-year [13] Group 2: Transportation Industry - The京沪高铁 is recognized as a landmark project in China's high-speed rail network, having transported over 1.6 billion passengers since its opening, with a business model that relies on entrusted transportation management [15][16] - The report notes that the high-speed rail industry is expected to see over 3.2 billion passengers in 2024, with the increasing preference for high-speed rail as a travel option among the public [15][16] Group 3: Key Factors Influencing Growth - For the京沪高铁, factors such as a market-oriented pricing mechanism, strong economic support from the surrounding provinces, and advancements in train technology are identified as critical to sustaining growth [16] - In the domestic computing power sector, the increasing demand for controllable AI infrastructure due to high-end chip shortages and export restrictions is driving the growth of国产算力, with significant investments from major tech companies like阿里巴巴 (Alibaba) and腾讯 (Tencent) [8][10]

通信周观点： 1）Meta、微软等北美云厂商加码 AI 算力投资，海外链持续景气。Meta 资本支出从 640-720 亿美元上调至 660-720 亿 美元，主要用于人才和基础设施投资。微软 FY25Q4 资本开支为 242 亿美元，同比+28%，主要用于数据中心等基础设 施建设。微软预计 FY26Q1 的资本支出将超过 300 亿美元，建设数据中心以缓解算力紧张。我们看好谷歌、Meta 等下 游终端客户加大数据中心投资，光模块及 MPO 供应商持续放量。2）仕佳光子光芯片收入同比大幅增长，泰国工厂扩 大 MPO 产能。仕佳光子 AWG 产品受益下游光模块需求高增，1H25 营收 3.11 亿元，同比+205.7%。泰国工厂扩产满足下 游数据中心建设需求，带动 MPO 业绩爆发。1H25 公司光纤连接器跳线收入 2.98 亿元，同比+423%。3）H20 对华重启 销售的叙事再经反转，长期坚定看好芯片的国产替代。暨英伟达宣布恢复 H20 对华销售后，为维护中国用户网络安全、 数据安全，国家网信办约谈了英伟达公司，要求英伟达公司就对华销售的 H20 算力芯片漏洞后门安全风险问题进行说 明并提交相关证明材料。同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently consolidating around the 3600-point level, showing hesitation before challenging the previous high of 3674 points, with a positive medium-term outlook despite short-term fluctuations [1][2]. Market Outlook - Recent catalysts across various industries, such as the launch of hydropower stations and potential recovery in H20 chip exports, are expected to boost market sentiment, leading to a more optimistic outlook [2]. - Two potential paths for the market are identified: continuing the upward trend directly towards the 3674-point high or undergoing a consolidation phase to digest previous losses before making a challenge [2]. - Three conditions are necessary for a direct challenge to the previous high: implementation of fiscal stimulus policies, continued global easing, and sustained increase in trading volume [2]. Hot Sectors - The technology sector is anticipated to gain momentum in August, driven by various catalysts, with a shift from defensive stocks to growth-oriented technology stocks [3]. - Key opportunities in the AI sector are expected to emerge from events like the AI conference, with innovations such as the Ascend 384 super node and physical AI [3]. - The trend towards domestic robotization is projected to continue, expanding from humanoid robots to quadrupedal and functional robots, creating opportunities in related components like sensors and controllers [3]. - The semiconductor industry remains a focus, with attention on domestic production across equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [3]. - The military industry is expected to see a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery already visible in Q1 reports across various sub-sectors [3]. - The innovative drug sector is entering a recovery phase after four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth expected to continue into 2025 [3]. Market Review - The A-share market is maintaining an upward trend despite recent narrow fluctuations, with a positive medium-term outlook supported by consolidation efforts [4]. - Major indices closed in the green, although the number of rising stocks was limited, indicating a decrease in overall market profitability [4]. - Leading sectors included telecommunications, steel, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and military, while lagging sectors comprised agriculture, banking, beauty care, light industry, and environmental protection [4].

Group 1 - The market continued to strengthen during the week of July 21-25, with the overall A-share index rising by 2.21%. The leading indices included the Sci-Tech 50, micro-cap stocks, and the CSI 500, while the SSE 50 lagged behind. The cyclical sector led the gains, while financials and real estate saw lower increases. Among the 31 Shenwan industries, construction materials, coal, and steel were the top gainers, while utilities, communications, and banking lagged [2][10]. - The stock-bond yield spread decreased to 1.0%, which is below the +1 standard deviation mark. The valuation dispersion coefficient increased by 2.3% compared to the previous period, indicating potential market peaks in the coming month [3][21]. - Market sentiment improved, with the sentiment index rising by 4.5% to 81.5, reflecting a recovery in overall A-share sentiment. The industry rotation intensity remained stable, with the micro-cap index outperforming the market [3][23]. Group 2 - The construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, referred to as the "Yaxi Project," commenced, which is expected to significantly boost related industries and local economies. This project has a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [10][19]. - The Hainan Free Trade Port's closure date was confirmed for December 18, 2025, marking a new phase in its development and positively impacting cross-border trade, investment, and tourism [10][17]. - The AI industry chain continues to be a focal point, with significant developments in AI applications and semiconductor sectors, indicating a favorable trend for the entire AI industry chain [4][14]. Group 3 - The recent release of game licenses in July maintained a high level, with 134 licenses issued, including 127 domestic and 7 imported games. This is expected to enhance the quality of game offerings and suggests investment opportunities in companies with strong content reserves [4][45]. - The military sector is anticipated to experience a revaluation due to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in the context of the India-Pakistan and Israel-Palestine conflicts. The upcoming commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the victory in the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression is expected to showcase military strength and further support the military industry [5][49]. - The recent issuance of smart connected vehicle operation licenses in Shanghai is expected to promote the large-scale commercialization of Robotaxi services, presenting investment opportunities in this emerging sector [4][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the telecommunications industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in AI infrastructure, particularly with the introduction of the CloudMatrix384 system, which marks a transition from "catching up" to "leading" in AI capabilities [10] - The global AI server market is expected to reach $298 billion by 2025, accounting for over 70% of the total server market, indicating a robust growth trajectory and increasing opportunities for domestic alternatives [11] - The report emphasizes the collaborative effects within the industry, suggesting that core suppliers are likely to experience performance elasticity due to rising demand for supporting equipment [12] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - Technological breakthroughs are reshaping the AI computing landscape, with the CloudMatrix384 system setting a new industry benchmark [10] - The global AI server market is poised for explosive growth, with significant domestic replacement opportunities emerging [11] - The synergy within the supply chain is becoming more pronounced, leading to enhanced performance for key suppliers [12] Industry News - Major overseas companies continue to demand AI computing power, sustaining a high level of industry prosperity [13] - The U.S. has released a national AI strategy aimed at establishing dominance in the global AI landscape through innovation, infrastructure, and geopolitical positioning [14] - China Mobile's AI model has achieved top rankings in international assessments, showcasing advancements in human-computer interaction technology [16] - The acceleration of satellite internet construction is indicated by a recent tender for rocket launch services worth 1.336 billion yuan [17] Weekly Review and Focus - The telecommunications sector experienced a slight decline of 0.47% this week, underperforming compared to major indices [18] - Key stocks to watch include those in the AIDC and related supply chains, as well as long-term focus on major telecom operators and infrastructure providers [22]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved in the AI sector Core Insights - The WAIC 2025 showcased unprecedented public interest in AI, with significant participation from over 800 companies and more than 3000 cutting-edge exhibits, marking the largest scale in its history [1][7] - The focus of the conference included key themes such as large model applications, computing power infrastructure, AI for science, and the integration of AI in various sectors including finance and healthcare [2][7] - Investment opportunities are shifting from individual GPU cards to full server racks, emphasizing the importance of computing power, model optimization, and AI infrastructure [8][15] Summary by Sections Core Technologies - The emphasis has shifted from individual chip performance to comprehensive solutions, with discussions focusing on efficient utilization of fragmented computing resources and low-power designs [2][12] - Major companies like Huawei and ZTE showcased advanced computing solutions, highlighting the integration of AI chips and servers into practical applications [3][4][5] Industry Applications - WAIC 2025 demonstrated a deeper commercialization of AI, with applications spanning robotics, smart glasses, and healthcare, reflecting a significant increase in participation from state-owned enterprises and international companies [7][13] - The event achieved record-breaking ticket sales and attendance, indicating a growing public enthusiasm for AI technologies [7][13] Smart Devices - The focus on embodied intelligence was evident, with dynamic usage scenarios presented through interactive exhibits that showcased advancements in humanoid robotics and smart glasses [8][14] - Notable product launches included Alibaba's Quark AI Glasses and China Telecom's Tianyi AI Glasses, which attracted significant public interest [8][14]