这一刻，等得太久了。长达五年的漫长亏损，终于要结束了。 日前，金蝶国际发布了备受瞩目的2025财年业绩预告，归母净利润预估在0.6亿到1亿之间。这份财报对 于金蝶最大的意义，并不是盈利了多少，而是终于扭亏为盈了。 这对于金蝶来说，无疑是一个振奋人心的好消息。 AI终于兑现了承诺 我们先来看看金蝶国际这份2025年的财报预告业绩成色几何。 经调整净利润方面，金蝶国际预估实现1.9亿-2.4亿，剔除股份支付等干扰后，这份业绩可以说是已经大 幅改善，主业盈利能力强劲。 经营现金流方面，金蝶国际账户有约11亿的现金流，同比增长18%，这说明现金流还是非常健康，赚的 是"真金白银"。 我们对比金蝶国际2024年62.56亿的总营收和1.42亿的亏损，2025年的这份年度业绩预告不仅在规模了实 现10%的增长，在利润上也实现了超过2亿元的改善。 由此看来，金蝶2025年的这份业绩预告不仅验证了"云+AI"战略的正确性，在营收保持双位数增长的同 时，利润端也实现了质的改善。这对资本市场来说，也释放了一个强烈的信号：国产SaaS厂商正在进入 一个可持续发展的新阶段。 核心驱动力 金蝶国际能够在2025年实现逆风翻盘，离不开三 ...

Core Insights - The company is a leading global provider of enterprise management cloud SaaS solutions, with a comprehensive digital solution covering the entire lifecycle of enterprises, including products like Kingdee Cloud Cangqiong and SaaS management clouds Xinghan, Xingkong, and Xingchen [1] - The company has seen a significant increase in cloud service revenue, projected to account for 83.74% of total revenue by the first half of 2025, with a CAGR of 16.84% from 2020 to 2024 [1] - The transition to cloud-native EBC is essential for AI implementation, allowing for the disaggregation of previously closed functional modules into AI-accessible service capabilities, enhancing customer stickiness [1] Group 1 - The company has achieved full-stack compatibility with major domestic innovation ecosystems, becoming a preferred choice for state-owned enterprises and Fortune 500 companies [2] - The acceleration of AI applications in enterprises is driven by advancements in large models and the emergence of Agent protocols, allowing SaaS companies to quickly penetrate the market with significant ecological advantages [2] - The growth of cross-border ERP demand is fueled by the expansion of Chinese enterprises overseas, with the company signing 259 outbound clients and local overseas enterprises, marking a 114.05% year-on-year increase [2] Group 2 - Revenue forecasts for the company are projected at 6.957 billion, 7.928 billion, and 9.059 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.2%, 14%, and 14.3% [3] - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is 0.72 billion, 3.69 billion, and 6.34 billion yuan [3] - The current price-to-sales ratios are 6.1, 5.35, and 4.69 for the respective years, with a valuation range of 610.68 to 697.92 billion HKD for 2026, rated as "outperforming the market" [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Kingdee International (00268) is a leading global SaaS service provider, with a successful push for AI products, expecting revenue growth of 11.2% in 2025, 14% in 2026, and 14.3% in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 0.72 billion, 3.69 billion, and 6.34 billion yuan respectively, leading to a market valuation range of 610.68 to 697.92 billion HKD, and an "outperform" rating [1] - The company has developed a comprehensive digital solution covering the entire lifecycle of enterprise management, with major products including the AI platform Kingdee Cloud and various SaaS management solutions, achieving 83.74% of revenue from cloud services by H1 2025, and a CAGR of 16.84% from 2020 to 2024 [1] - The company is a pioneer in the transition to cloud-native EBC management software, which breaks down closed functional modules into AI-accessible service capabilities, enhancing customer stickiness [2] Group 2 - The demand for software upgrades driven by ERP replacement and domestic alternatives is significant, with state-owned enterprises leading the increase in ERP tenders, and Kingdee's products achieving full-stack compatibility with major domestic ecosystems [3] - The acceleration of AI applications in enterprises is driven by advancements in large models and the emergence of Agent protocols, with the company integrating AI capabilities into its platform and securing contracts with major clients [4] - The growth of the global digital economy is facilitating the expansion of Chinese enterprises overseas, with the company providing comprehensive cross-border ERP solutions, signing 259 new clients in H1 2025, representing a 114.05% year-on-year increase [5]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities reports that Kingdee International (00268) is a leading global SaaS service provider, with smooth progress in AI product launches, projecting revenues of 6.957 billion, 7.928 billion, and 9.059 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 11.2%, 14%, and 14.3% [1] Group 1: Company Performance and Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 72 million, 369 million, and 634 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding current price-to-sales ratios of 6.1, 5.35, and 4.69 times [1] - The estimated market valuation for 2026 is between 610.68 billion and 697.92 billion Hong Kong dollars, with a rating of "outperform the market" [1] Group 2: Product and Service Development - The company has developed comprehensive enterprise management solutions and is actively promoting AI implementation, with cloud service revenue accounting for 83.74% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company has transitioned to a cloud-native EBC model, which allows for AI integration and enhances customer stickiness [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Opportunities - The demand for software upgrades driven by ERP replacement is increasing, with state-owned enterprises leading the rise in ERP bidding and gradually moving towards domestic alternatives [4] - The company has achieved full-stack compatibility with major domestic innovation ecosystems, making its products a preferred choice among state-owned enterprises and Fortune 500 companies [4] Group 4: AI Integration and Application - The global development of AI has accelerated, with large models achieving new heights in various capabilities, and the focus of AI competition shifting towards deepening application scenarios and ecosystem integration [5] - The company has signed contracts with leading clients such as Hisense Group and Tongwei Co., leveraging its integrated AI capabilities [5] Group 5: International Expansion - The growth of the global digital economy is providing opportunities for Chinese enterprises to expand overseas, with the company offering comprehensive outbound solutions across various business functions [6] - In the first half of 2025, the company signed contracts with 259 Chinese enterprises and local overseas companies, marking a year-on-year growth of 114.05% [6]

Summary of Kington International Conference Call Company Overview - Kington International is a leading company in the ERP industry, focusing on AI applications and SaaS solutions [2][3] Key Points and Arguments AI Product Development - Kington has launched multiple AI engine products with positive customer feedback, indicating a deepening application of AI [2][3] - The current price-to-sales (PS) ratio is approximately 7 times, compared to the normal range of 12-15 times for AI SaaS companies, suggesting potential for valuation improvement [2][3] ERP Industry Dynamics - The ERP industry is experiencing accelerated domestic substitution, with Kington positioned at a profitability inflection point [2][4] - Kington's revenue from large enterprise products, such as Cangqiong and Xinghan, grew over 30% last year, with contract signing amounts reaching 2.1 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate exceeding 50% [4][5] New Pricing Model - Starting July 1, Kington will implement a new pricing model for medium and large enterprise clients, charging separately for additional development services, which is expected to boost revenue [5] - This pricing strategy indicates an improvement in the competitive landscape of the ERP industry, moving away from price wars to product upgrades and reasonable profit levels [5] Financial Stability - Kington has demonstrated financial stability, with a significant portion of its client base being medium-sized enterprises, accounting for over 40% of its core revenue [6] - The SaaS model, with over 80% of revenue from annual subscriptions, extends customer value lifecycle and contributes to long-term performance [6] Market Share and Competition - The domestic substitution policy mandates completion of ERP domestic replacement by 2027, leading to a decline in market share for overseas vendors like SAP and Oracle [7][8] - Domestic vendors, including Kington, are focusing on product upgrades and leveraging AI technology to enhance competitiveness, particularly in the large state-owned enterprise market [8] Subscription Model Benefits - Kington's subscription model ensures continuous service usage, enhancing revenue stability even in uncertain macroeconomic conditions [9] - The high renewal rate of existing customers supports the company's performance, despite challenges in acquiring new clients [9] Cash Flow and Profitability - Kington's operating cash flow has been positive for several years, with operating net cash flow reaching 900 million yuan last year, a 43% year-on-year increase [11] - The company is expected to maintain rapid growth in cash flow, achieving profit and loss balance under the SaaS business model [11] AI Application Progress - Kington has made significant strides in AI applications, launching various products tailored for different enterprise sizes, including Cangqiong AI application development platform and HR assistants [12] - New AI products released in May 2025 include Kington Financial Report, ChatGPT, and recruitment assistants, which are designed for ease of use and efficiency [12] Future Outlook for AI and ERP - The integration of AI and ERP is still in its early stages, but it holds great potential for enhancing decision-making and operational efficiency [13][14] - The commercial potential of AI in the ERP sector is substantial, with increasing willingness from clients to pay for efficient AI applications [14] Economic Environment Impact - Kington has shown resilience in the current economic environment, with a high subscription ratio contributing to strong business predictability [15] - The company is expected to maintain steady growth, with short-term contributions from standardized AI products and long-term value from enhanced AI capabilities [16] SaaS Valuation - Current valuations for enterprise SaaS are relatively low, with Kington's PS at only 7 times, indicating significant room for growth as market optimism for cloud and AI increases [17]

Summary of Kintone International Conference Call Company Overview - Kintone International has successfully transformed into a cloud service provider, with cloud service revenue accounting for 81.6% of total revenue by 2024, establishing itself as a leading ERP giant in the domestic SaaS market [2][12][16] - The company offers core products including Xinghan, Cangqiong, Xingkong, and Xingchen, catering to large, medium, and small enterprises with comprehensive management solutions [2][13] Key Insights and Arguments - **Cloud Transformation Impact**: The shift to cloud services has enhanced revenue resilience, improved employee efficiency, and strengthened cash flow health, with operating profit margin for cloud services reaching 6% in 2024 [2][12][19] - **AI Technology Influence**: AI technology is expected to significantly impact Kintone's business model, with anticipated revenue growth of 10-15% in 2025, projecting total revenue of approximately 7 billion RMB [2][14][27] - **Profitability Forecast**: Kintone expects to turn a profit in 2025, estimating a profit of around 80 million RMB, with a current PS valuation of about 6 times, potentially reaching 8 times in the long term, corresponding to a market value target of 56 billion RMB [2][15][26] - **Market Share Gains**: The company benefits from the "Xinchuang" policy, which drives rapid growth for its Xinghan and Cangqiong platforms by capturing market share from SAP and Oracle, with revenue growth from under 100 million RMB in 2019 to 1.3 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate of approximately 40% [2][23] Additional Important Content - **AI Agent Commercialization**: Kintone is poised for large-scale commercialization of AI agents in 2025, leveraging its extensive customer base and data accumulation to enhance its SaaS offerings [5][7][27] - **Product Development**: Recently, Kintone launched five AI agents, including Travel Agent and Financial Report Analysis Agent, which integrate into the ERP financial system, creating a closed-loop management system [9][10] - **Client Segmentation**: Kintone's products are tailored to different client segments, with varying deployment times and customization needs, reflecting the diverse requirements of small, medium, and large enterprises [20][21][22] - **Financial Resilience**: Kintone has demonstrated strong revenue growth resilience, maintaining positive growth even during economic fluctuations and external shocks, with no negative growth recorded in the past 8-9 years [17][18] Conclusion Kintone International's strategic focus on cloud transformation and AI integration positions it well for future growth, with a robust product offering and a clear path to profitability. The company's ability to adapt to market demands and leverage policy changes further enhances its competitive edge in the ERP SaaS landscape.