早盘速递 2026/2/26 板块持仓 (2,000,000) (1,500,000) (1,000,000) (500,000) 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 Wind软商品 Wind油脂油料 Wind贵金属 Wind非金属建材 近五日商品期货板块持仓变动 2026-02-25 2026-02-24 2026-02-13 2026-02-12 2026-02-11 热点资讯 1.美国总统特朗普在国会发表其第二任期的首次国情咨文演讲，演讲历时108分钟，创下历史纪录。特朗普在演讲中宣布，将 绕过最高法院裁决、通过其他法律途径持续加征关税，并明确提出以关税收入取代个人所得税。特朗普表示，更倾向于用外交 手段解决伊朗核问题，但绝不允许伊朗拥有核武器。特朗普演讲也存在一些不准确的数据和误导性观点，比如：12个月内，他 从世界各地为美国获得超过18万亿美元的投资承诺；油价在2.3美元以下；关税由外国支付等。 2.乘联分会秘书长崔东树发文表示，1月末全国乘用车行业库存357万辆，环 ...

Market Overview - The main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 101,650 CNY/ton and closed at 102,460 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.94% from the previous trading day [2][15] - The night session saw the contract open at 102,880 CNY/ton and close at 103,040 CNY/ton, rising by 0.58% from the afternoon close [2][15] Supply and Demand - The market is experiencing a simultaneous recovery in both supply and demand, with previously locked import sources arriving at ports and unfulfilled warehouse receipts being released [3][15] - Downstream enterprises are gradually resuming operations post-holiday, leading to increased inquiries and purchasing activity [3][15] - However, the release of supply is more direct, particularly with unfulfilled warehouse receipts putting pressure on the premium/discount [3][15] Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced countervailing duties on solar cell components imported from India, Indonesia, and Laos, with subsidy rates set at 125.87%, 104.38%, and 80.67% respectively [4][16] - The U.S. Trade Representative indicated ongoing investigations into China's compliance with the Phase One trade agreement, which may lead to further tariff measures [5][16] Mining Sector Insights - Chile, the world's largest copper producer, is entering a new political phase with the upcoming inauguration of President José Antonio Kast, who has signaled potential changes in mining policy [6][17] - The merger of the mining and economy ministries has raised concerns about the impact on mining expertise and policy credibility [6][17] - Analysts predict that Chile's mining sector could attract approximately $105 billion in investment by 2034, although the government's target of a 20% increase in copper production within two years is viewed as unrealistic [6][17] Refining and Import Data - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a projected surplus of 380,000 tons in the global refined copper market for 2025, with a surplus of 69,000 tons expected in 2024 [7][18] - December 2025 global refined copper production is estimated at 2,854,000 tons, compared to 2,739,700 tons in the previous year [7][18] Consumption Trends - European companies consuming over 90% of scrap copper have warned of a critical supply shortage unless the EU implements export restrictions similar to those for aluminum [8][19] - Since 2022, EU scrap copper exports have surged by 31%, with about half going to China, exacerbating local supply issues [8][19] - The risk of shortages in both scrap and cathode copper in Europe is highlighted, with calls for the EU to adopt similar export restrictions for copper [8][19] Inventory and Warehouse Data - LME warehouse stocks decreased by 1,350 tons to 249,650 tons, while SHFE stocks increased by 10,717 tons to 287,806 tons [9][19] - As of February 25, domestic market electrolytic copper stocks stood at 508,500 tons, a decrease of 154,900 tons from the previous week [9][19] Strategy Recommendations - The copper market is currently neutral, with a supply-demand balance observed post-holiday [10][20] - It is suggested to monitor the pace of resumption of work and inventory depletion, with a trading range for copper set between 98,000 and 104,500 CNY/ton [10][20]

期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-02-26 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.3 | 49.0 | 49.1 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.4 | 50.1 | 50.2 | | 2026-02-14 | 2026/01 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 72208 | 8178 | 70546 | | 2026-02-13 | 2026/01 | M0:同比 | % | 2.7 | 10.6 | 17.2 | | 2026-02-13 | 2026/01 | M1:同比 | % | 4.9 | 6.2 | 0.4 | | 2026-02-13 | 2026/ ...

美国商务部周二表示，将对从印度、印度尼西亚和老挝进口的晶硅太阳能电池组件征收反补贴税，理由 是这三个国家的生产商受益于政府补贴，削弱了美国本土产品的竞争力。根据初裁结果，印度生产商/ 出口商的一般补贴税率被设定为125.87%，印度尼西亚为104.38%，老挝为80.67%。 ...