2025 年 8 月 26 日 棕榈油：基本面暂无新驱动，等待回调布多 豆油：四季度缺豆交易暂缓，高位震荡整理 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价(日 盘） 9,488 | 涨跌幅 -0.23% | 收盘价 （夜 盘） 9,542 | 涨跌幅 0.57% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 元/吨 | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | | 8,536 | 0.52% | 8,514 | -0.26% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,998 | 0.03% | 9,918 | -0.80% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,493 | -0.84% | 4,482 | -0.22% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美 分/磅 | 54.84 | -0.87% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has preliminarily determined that Oman is circumventing anti-dumping and countervailing duties on similar products from China by using hot-rolled steel produced in China to manufacture circular welded carbon steel pipes (CWP) [1][3]. Group 1: Investigation and Findings - The investigation began on November 19, 2024, focusing on circumvention activities across Oman, with Al Jazeera Steel Products Company SAOG identified as the mandatory respondent [3]. - The average anti-dumping duty rate for Chinese CWP is 85.55%, while the countervailing duty rate is as high as 198.49% [3]. - The U.S. has intensified scrutiny on imported steel products, particularly those processed through third countries to evade tariffs [3][4]. Group 2: Market Impact - In 2024, the U.S. imported approximately 50,000 tons of CWP from Oman, accounting for 2.5% of total imports, with Chinese hot-rolled steel remaining competitive in the global market due to price advantages [4]. - The preliminary ruling may lead to the imposition of tariffs on Omani CWP similar to those on Chinese products, potentially exceeding 200%, which would significantly raise export costs for Oman and affect its competitiveness in the U.S. market [5]. - U.S. domestic steel producers like Nucor and Steel Dynamics may benefit from this situation as their market share could increase [5]. Group 3: Broader Context - The global steel market is currently facing an oversupply situation, with low-priced steel from China entering the U.S. market through third countries, leading to ongoing trade disputes [5]. - Similar circumvention issues have been observed in global trade, with countries like Vietnam and Thailand also facing investigations by the U.S. [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is preparing to impose anti-dumping duties on Canadian lumber, casting a shadow over Canada's attempts to negotiate a reduction in tariff threats [1][4]. Group 1: Trade Dispute Background - The softwood lumber tariff dispute between Canada and the U.S. has become one of the longest-standing trade disputes between the two countries [4]. - For the past 25 years, the U.S. lumber industry has frequently sought to limit Canadian softwood imports through anti-subsidy and anti-dumping laws [4]. Group 2: Recent Developments - On July 25, the U.S. government announced the results of an anti-dumping investigation, determining that Canada was dumping softwood lumber and will impose anti-dumping duties on such imports [1]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce proposed significantly increasing the anti-dumping duties on Canadian softwood lumber earlier this year, which has raised concerns in the U.S. construction industry that relies on Canadian imports for about one-third of its lumber needs [4]. Group 3: Duty Rates and Economic Impact - The current anti-subsidy and anti-dumping duty rates on Canadian lumber are 14.5%, which may be increased to over 34.5% following a review by the U.S. Department of Commerce [4][5]. - As of April, the U.S. government had threatened to impose "reciprocal tariffs" on lumber, although lumber was ultimately exempted from new tariffs [4].

Group 1 - The core issue of the article revolves around the ongoing negotiations between the EU and China regarding electric vehicle anti-subsidy taxes, which have not yet reached a resolution [4] - Recent positive signs in the negotiations include a statement from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce indicating that discussions on price commitments for electric vehicles have entered the "final stage" [4] - The article highlights that measures such as anti-subsidy taxes and minimum price commitments are not favorable for small electric vehicles, suggesting that these measures could negatively impact all Chinese electric vehicles [3]

Group 1 - The Indian Ministry of Finance's tax department announced a definitive anti-subsidy duty on "pearl effect" pigments or mica pearl pigments imported from China, following a recommendation from the Ministry of Commerce on March 28, 2025 [1] - The anti-subsidy duty will be imposed for a period of five years, with rates ranging from 11.18% to 25.76% based on the cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) price [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) has determined that the prices of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels imported from four Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam and Thailand, have been improperly suppressed, leading to the imposition of countervailing and anti-dumping duties on these imports [1]. Group 1: ITC Findings - The ITC's final ruling on May 20 confirmed that "crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells" imported from Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Malaysia are sold at prices below fair value due to government subsidies [1]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to initiate countervailing and anti-dumping duties within a week, with varying rates for each country and company [1]. Group 2: Duty Rates - The highest combined duties for Cambodian companies will exceed 650%, while some companies are classified as local entities of Chinese firms, with rates for Cambodian companies potentially exceeding 3400% [1]. - Since 2022, the U.S. has applied a special exemption for duty-free imports of solar power-related products from these four countries, which is set to expire in June 2024 [1]. Group 3: Background and Investigation - The investigation into the imposition of countervailing and anti-dumping duties began under the Biden administration, with the ITC making a preliminary determination in June 2024 that "improper dumping behavior" exists [1].

国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 不拘中国、 放眼世界 ！ 关注 世界半导体论坛 ↓ ↓ ↓ 4月22日消息，据报道， 美国宣布对从柬埔寨、马来西亚、泰国和越南进口的太阳能产品征收新关 税， 其中 反补贴税最高达到3403.96%！ 据悉，根据美国商务部网站当地时间周一公布的一项决定，该机构计算的有关太东南亚四国太阳能产 品的反倾销税为6.1%至271.28%，具体取决于企业和国家。反补贴税在14.64%至3403.96%之间。 这四个国家目前供应美国约77%的光伏组件，去年对美出口太阳能设备总值达129亿美元。这一关税决 定是一项为期一年的贸易调查的最终结果。这项调查是由美国国内太阳能制造商提出的，由前总统拜 登发起。 虽然征收关税势将惠及美国制造商，但也将挤压长期依赖廉价外国供应的美国可再生能源开发商，让这个 因华盛顿政治和政策变化而饱受困扰的行业面临更大的不确定性。 这些所谓的反倾销和反补贴关税，旨在抵消商务部计算得出的所谓不公平补贴和定价的幅度。新税将在特 朗普实施的普遍关税基础之上增加，而特朗普关税已经颠覆了全球供应链和市场。 据美国商务部，针对柬埔寨个别公司的关税税率最高达352 ...

Core Viewpoint - The United States has announced new tariffs on solar products imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, with countervailing duties reaching as high as 3403.96% [2]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The U.S. Department of Commerce has set anti-dumping duties ranging from 6.1% to 271.28%, depending on the company and country [2]. - The countervailing duties range from 14.64% to 3403.96%, significantly impacting the solar product supply chain [2]. - Cambodia faces the highest individual company tariff rate of 3521%, reflecting its decision to stop participating in the investigation [2][3]. Group 2: Market Impact - These four Southeast Asian countries supply approximately 77% of solar modules to the U.S., with total exports valued at $12.9 billion last year [2][4]. - The tariffs are expected to benefit U.S. manufacturers but will create uncertainty for U.S. renewable energy developers who rely on affordable foreign supplies [2]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Economists warn that if the current tariff levels remain, the U.S. economy could face a recession, with a 90% probability of GDP shrinking by 4 percentage points [4]. - The impact of tariffs is particularly severe on small businesses, which account for 80% of U.S. employment, potentially leading to widespread retail bankruptcies and a decline in consumer confidence [4].

周末公告，江苏舜天涉嫌造假，2009-2021的财报中累计虚增收入103.33亿，虚增营业成本94亿，虚增 利润9.34亿。 这次事发是因为隋田力的"专网通信业务"窝案被查。所谓专网通信，就是为特定客户提供无线网络服 务。隋田力控制的公司和15家上市公司发展此业务，但其实并没有真正落实，而是虚假内部自循环，买 家卖家的钱互相倒来倒去，虚增业务，把数据做的好看。 哪15家上市公司呢？ 上海电气（SH601727）、 宏达新材（现： ST宏达，SH600152）、 瑞斯康达（603803.SH）、 国瑞科技（300600.SZ）、 中天科技（600522.SH）、 汇鸿集团（600981.SH）、 凯乐科技 （现： *ST凯乐，SH600260）、 中利集团（现： ST中利，SZ002309）、 康隆达 （603665.SH）、 新海宜（002089.SZ）、 华讯方舟（现： 华讯退，000687.SZ）、 航天动力 （600343.SH）、 合 众思壮（002383.SZ）、 恒宝股份（002104.SZ）、 江苏舜天 （600287.SH） 我查了一下，这些公司有4个已经退市，剩下的一半左右都因为造假被罚，另 ...