交银国际研究 公司更新 | 汽车 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 8 月 22 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | 34.50 | 港元 41.89 | +21.4% | | | 速腾聚创 (2498 HK) | | | | | 2Q25 毛利率稳步提升，预计下半年机器人激光雷达迎交付高峰；维持买入 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 8/24 12/24 4/25 8/25 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 2498 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 50.40 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 11.02 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 16,208.79 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 6.78 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 12.38 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 36.33 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 李柳晓, PhD, CFA joyce.li@bocomgroup.com (8 ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint is that the "innovation bull market" in 2025 is driven by a positive cycle of capital pricing and industrial implementation under policy guidance, with macro policies anchoring industrial direction and capital markets facilitating value discovery [1] - The market liquidity and valuation have improved, with A-share trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, indicating a positive trading structure and sentiment cycle [1] - The initial phase of the "innovation bull" is likely to extend towards financial sectors and technology industries, particularly in robotics, computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates that China's export growth may continue to exceed market expectations due to the dual easing of U.S. fiscal and monetary policies, suggesting resilience in external demand [2] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is highlighted, with predictions of two cuts in September and December, although there is caution regarding overly optimistic market pricing [2] Fixed Income Market - The fixed income market has shown a "desensitization" to fundamental data, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rising to 1.745% despite disappointing economic indicators [4] - The report notes that structural policy tools may replace total monetary policies as the main line of easing in the third quarter [4] Company Performance - 瑞芯微 (Rockchip) reported a significant revenue increase of 63.85% year-on-year in H1 2025, with a net profit growth of 190.61%, driven by strong performance in AIoT products [8] - 禾赛科技 (Hesai Technology) achieved a revenue increase of 53.9% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with a net profit growth of 161.2%, supported by strong demand for ADAS and robotics [9] - 道通科技 (Dautong Technology) reported a revenue increase of 27.3% year-on-year in H1 2025, driven by advancements in digital repair and energy solutions [10] Industry Trends - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the AI and robotics sectors, with companies like 禾赛科技 and 瑞芯微 leading in their respective fields [9][8] - The demand for 3D vision technology is highlighted as a key growth driver for 奥比中光 (Orbbec), with expected rapid revenue growth in the coming years [20] Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "buy" rating for several companies, including 瑞芯微, 禾赛科技, and 道通科技, based on their strong performance and growth prospects in innovative sectors [8][9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected net profit, driven by growth in intelligent driving and robotics [2][7] - The company is positioned to benefit from the penetration of L4 commercial applications in intelligent driving and robotics [7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, the company achieved total revenue of $71 million, a year-on-year increase of 53.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 34.5% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was $4.4 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 161.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 351.2% [7] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 42.5%, slightly down from 45.1% in the same period last year but up 0.8 percentage points from the previous quarter [7] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company maintained the top market share in ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) with total deliveries of 352,000 units in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 275.8% [7] - The company has secured new contracts with nine major automotive manufacturers for 20 models, with plans for delivery between 2025 and 2026 [7] - In the robotics sector, product deliveries reached 48,500 units in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 743.6%, marking a significant growth engine for the company [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to $36 million, $79 million, and $130 million respectively [7] - The corresponding P/E ratios based on the closing price on August 15, 2025, are projected to be 94, 43, and 26 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7]